Baigiamajame magistro darbe nagrinėjamos neraiškiųjų verslo taisyklių naudojimo informacinėse sistemose problemos, „minkštųjų skaičiavimų“ intelektinėse informacinėse sistemose problematika, neuroninių-neraiškiųjų sistemų principai. Išnagrinėti pagrindiniai neraiškiosios logikos dėsniai, kuriais remiantis naudojamos neraiskiosios verslo taisyklės intelektinėse informacinėse sistemose. Pateiktas būdas, kaip neuroninės-neraiškiosios sistemos gali būti naudojamos verslo taisyklių sistemose naudojant RuleML, taisyklių žymėjimo kalbos, standartą. Baigiamajame darbe aprašomas eksperimentas, atliktas naudojant Matlab aplinką, XMLBeans taikomąją programą ir autoriaus sukurta neraiškaus išvedimo sistemos perkelimo į RuleML formatą taikomąją programą. Išnagrinėjus teorinius ir praktinius neuroninių-neraiškiųjų sistemų naudojimo aspektus, pateikiamos baigiamojo darbo išvados ir siūlymai. Darbą sudaro 5 dalys: įvadas, analitinė-metodinė dalis, eksperimentinė-tiriamoji dalis, išvados ir siūlymai, literatūros sąrašas. Darbo apimtis – 58 p. teksto be priedų, 30 iliustr., 30 bibliografiniai šaltiniai. Atskirai pridedami darbo priedai. / This work investigates the problems of use of fuzzy business rules in information systems, „soft computing“ in intelligent information systems issues, neuro-fuzzy systems principles. Main fuzzy logic laws are considered, which are used as the basis of fuzzy business rules in intelligent information systems. Suggested an approach, based on RuleML standard, how neuro-fuzzy systems could be used together with business rules engines. This paper describes the experiment carried out using the Matlab environment, XMLBeans application and the author created application for fuzzy inference system migration to RuleML standard format. Structure: introduction, analysis , project, conclusions and suggestions, references. Thesis consist of: 58 p. text without appendixes, 30 pictures, 30 bibliographical entries. Appendixes included.

The military recently recognized the importance of taking sociocultural factors into consideration. Therefore, Human Social Culture Behavior (HSCB) modeling has been getting much attention in current and future operational requirements to successfully understand the effects of social and cultural factors on human behavior. There are different kinds of modeling approaches to the data that are being used in this field and so far none of them has been widely accepted. HSCB modeling needs the capability to represent complex, ill-defined, and imprecise concepts, and soft computing modeling can deal with these concepts. There is currently no study on the use of any computational methodology for representing the relationship between adverse events and infrastructure development investments in an active war theater. This study investigates the relationship between adverse events and infrastructure development projects in an active war theater using soft computing techniques including fuzzy inference systems (FIS), artificial neural networks (ANNs), and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) that directly benefits from their accuracy in prediction applications. Fourteen developmental and economic improvement project types were selected based on allocated budget values and a number of projects at different time periods, urban and rural population density, and total adverse event numbers at previous month selected as independent variables. A total of four outputs reflecting the adverse events in terms of the number of people killed, wounded, hijacked, and total number of adverse events has been estimated. For each model, the data was grouped for training and testing as follows: years between 2004 and 2009 (for training purpose) and year 2010 (for testing). Ninety-six different models were developed and investigated for Afghanistan iv and the country was divided into seven regions for analysis purposes. Performance of each model was investigated and compared to all other models with the calculated mean absolute error (MAE) values and the prediction accuracy within ±1 error range (difference between actual and predicted value). Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the effects of input values on dependent variables and to rank the top ten input parameters in order of importance. According to the the results obtained, it was concluded that the ANNs, FIS, and ANFIS are useful modeling techniques for predicting the number of adverse events based on historical development or economic projects’ data. When the model accuracy was calculated based on the MAE for each of the models, the ANN had better predictive accuracy than FIS and ANFIS models in general as demonstrated by experimental results. The percentages of prediction accuracy with values found within ±1 error range around 90%. The sensitivity analysis results show that the importance of economic development projects varies based on the regions, population density, and occurrence of adverse events in Afghanistan. For the purpose of allocating resources and development of regions, the results can be summarized by examining the relationship between adverse events and infrastructure development in an active war theater; emphasis was on predicting the occurrence of events and assessing the potential impact of regional infrastructure development efforts on reducing number of such events.

Orientador: Sandra Regina Monteiro Masalskiene Roveda / Resumo: A nova perspectiva rumo à conservação do meio ambiente como fato categórico de subsistência planetária tem colocado a sustentabilidade em primeiro plano como o grande desafio da universidade, responsável e equipada para a formação daqueles que terão o poder decisório sobre as questões relacionadas a um futuro viável. Este estudo se refere à sustentabilidade na universidade por meio do que é percebido pelos diversos atores que nela transitam. Teve como objetivo desvendar, em algumas instituições do setor público e do setor privado, quais as impressões que professores/coordenadores, alunos e funcionários possuem sobre as atuações da instituição em seu campus, os projetos e pesquisas voltados à sustentabilidade elaborados pela equipe docente e os aprendizados efetivos na formação dos novos profissionais, que deverão atuar nas diversas áreas de atividades em nossa sociedade. Para poder medir essas impressões, foram aplicados questionários e desenvolvido um modelo fuzzy com um índice associado, que apresenta o nível de sustentabilidade de uma Instituição de Ensino Superior – IES. Isso nos leva a concluir que os sistemas de inferência fuzzy são capazes de fazer uma avaliação do que pode ser percebido pela comunidade universitária sobre a sustentabilidade de sua instituição. / Doutor

With the development of three-dimensional (3D) technologies, the demand for high-quality 3D content, 3D visualization, and flexible and natural interactions are increasing. As a result, semi-transparent Augmented-Reality (AR) systems are emerging and evolving rapidly. Since there are currently no well-recognized models to evaluate the performance of these systems, we proposed a Quality-of-Experience (QoE) taxonomy for semi-transparent AR systems containing three levels of influential QoE parameters, through analyzing existing QoE models in other related areas and integrating the feedbacks received from our user study. We designed a user study to collect training and testing data for our QoE model, and built a Fuzzy-Inference-System (FIS) model to estimate the QoE evaluation and validate the proposed taxonomy. A case study was also conducted to further explore the relationships between QoE parameters and technical QoS parameters with functional components of Microsoft HoloLens AR system. In this work, we illustrate the experiments in detail and thoroughly explain the results obtained. We also present the conclusion and future work.

In this paper I describe a motion planning technique for intelligent ground vehicles. The technique is an implementation of a path selection algorithm based on fuzzy inference. The approach extends on the motion planning algorithm known as driving with tentacles. The selection of the tentacle (a drivable path) to follow relies on the calculation of a weighted cost function for each tentacle in the current speed set, and depends on variables such as the distance to the desired position, speed, and the closeness of a tentacle to any obstacles. A Matlab simulation and the practical implementation of the fuzzy inference rule on a Clearpath Husky robot within the Robot Operating System (ROS) framework are provided.

Fine-scale resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) created from data collected using high precision instruments have become ubiquitous in fluvial geomorphology. They permit a diverse range of spatially explicit analyses including hydraulic modeling, habitat modeling and geomorphic change detection. Yet, the intercomparison of survey technologies across a diverse range of wadeable stream habitats has not yet been examined. Additionally, we lack an understanding regarding the precision of DEMs derived from ground-based surveys conducted by different, and inherently subjective, observers. This thesis addresses current knowledge gaps with the objectives i) to intercompare survey techniques for characterizing instream topography, and ii) to characterize observer variability in instream topographic surveys. To address objective i, we used total station (TS), real-time kinematic (rtk) GPS, terrestrial laser scanner (TLS), and infrared airborne laser scanning (ALS) topographic data from six sites of varying complexity in the Lemhi River Basin, Idaho. The accuracy of derived bare earth DEMs was evaluated relative to higher precision TS point data. Significant DEM discrepancies between pairwise techniques were calculated using propagated DEM errors thresholded at a 95% confidence interval. Mean discrepancies between TS and rtkGPS DEMs were relatively low (≤ 0.05 m), yet TS data collection time was up to 2.4 times longer than rtkGPS. ALS DEMs had lower accuracy than TS or rtkGPS DEMs, but ALS aerial coverage and floodplain topographic representation was superior to all other techniques. The TLS bare earth DEM accuracy and precision were lower than other techniques as a result of vegetation returns misinterpreted as ground returns. To address objective ii, we used a case study where seven field crews surveyed the same six sites to quantify the magnitude and effect of observer variability on DEMs interpolated from the survey data. We modeled two geomorphic change scenarios and calculated net erosion and deposition volumes at a 95% confidence interval. We observed several large magnitude elevation discrepancies across crews, however many of these i) tended to be highly localized, ii) were due to systematic errors, iii) did not significantly affect DEM-derived metric precision, and iv) can be corrected post-hoc.

This thesis presents several novel methods to address some of the real world data modelling issues through the use of local and individualised modelling approaches. A set of real world data modelling issues such as modelling evolving processes, defining unique problem subspaces, identifying and dealing with noise, outliers, missing values, imbalanced data and irrelevant features, are reviewed and their impact on the models are analysed. The thesis has made nine major contributions to information science, includes four generic modelling methods, three real world application systems that apply these methods, a comprehensive review of the real world data modelling problems and a data analysis and modelling software. Four novel methods have been developed and published in the course of this study. They are: (1) DyNFIS – Dynamic Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, (2) MUFIS – A Fuzzy Inference System That Uses Multiple Types of Fuzzy Rules, (3) Integrated Temporal and Spatial Multi-Model System, (4) Personalised Regression Model. DyNFIS addresses the issue of unique problem subspaces by identifying them through a clustering process, creating a fuzzy inference system based on the clusters and applies supervised learning to update the fuzzy rules, both antecedent and consequent part. This puts strong emphasis on the unique problem subspaces and allows easy to understand rules to be extracted from the model, which adds knowledge to the problem. MUFIS takes DyNFIS a step further by integrating a mixture of different types of fuzzy rules together in a single fuzzy inference system. In many real world problems, some problem subspaces were found to be more suitable for one type of fuzzy rule than others and, therefore, by integrating multiple types of fuzzy rules together, a better prediction can be made. The type of fuzzy rule assigned to each unique problem subspace also provides additional understanding of its characteristics. The Integrated Temporal and Spatial Multi-Model System is a different approach to integrating two contrasting views of the problem for better results. The temporal model uses recent data and the spatial model uses historical data to make the prediction. By combining the two through a dynamic contribution adjustment function, the system is able to provide stable yet accurate prediction on real world data modelling problems that have intermittently changing patterns. The personalised regression model is designed for classification problems. With the understanding that real world data modelling problems often involve noisy or irrelevant variables and the number of input vectors in each class may be highly imbalanced, these issues make the definition of unique problem subspaces less accurate. The proposed method uses a model selection system based on an incremental feature selection method to select the best set of features. A global model is then created based on this set of features and then optimised using training input vectors in the test input vector’s vicinity. This approach focus on the definition of the problem space and put emphasis the test input vector’s residing problem subspace. The novel generic prediction methods listed above have been applied to the following three real world data modelling problems: 1. Renal function evaluation which achieved higher accuracy than all other existing methods while allowing easy to understand rules to be extracted from the model for future studies. 2. Milk volume prediction system for Fonterra achieved a 20% improvement over the method currently used by Fonterra. 3. Prognoses system for pregnancy outcome prediction (SCOPE), achieved a more stable and slightly better accuracy than traditional statistical methods. These solutions constitute a contribution to the area of applied information science. In addition to the above contributions, a data analysis software package, NeuCom, was primarily developed by the author prior and during the PhD study to facilitate some of the standard experiments and analysis on various case studies. This is a full featured data analysis and modelling software that is freely available for non-commercial purposes (see Appendix A for more details). In summary, many real world problems consist of many smaller problems. It was found beneficial to acknowledge the existence of these sub-problems and address them through the use of local or personalised models. The rules extracted from the local models also brought about the availability of new knowledge for the researchers and allowed more in-depth study of the sub-problems to be carried out in future research.

This thesis presents several novel methods to address some of the real world data modelling issues through the use of local and individualised modelling approaches. A set of real world data modelling issues such as modelling evolving processes, defining unique problem subspaces, identifying and dealing with noise, outliers, missing values, imbalanced data and irrelevant features, are reviewed and their impact on the models are analysed. The thesis has made nine major contributions to information science, includes four generic modelling methods, three real world application systems that apply these methods, a comprehensive review of the real world data modelling problems and a data analysis and modelling software. Four novel methods have been developed and published in the course of this study. They are: (1) DyNFIS – Dynamic Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, (2) MUFIS – A Fuzzy Inference System That Uses Multiple Types of Fuzzy Rules, (3) Integrated Temporal and Spatial Multi-Model System, (4) Personalised Regression Model. DyNFIS addresses the issue of unique problem subspaces by identifying them through a clustering process, creating a fuzzy inference system based on the clusters and applies supervised learning to update the fuzzy rules, both antecedent and consequent part. This puts strong emphasis on the unique problem subspaces and allows easy to understand rules to be extracted from the model, which adds knowledge to the problem. MUFIS takes DyNFIS a step further by integrating a mixture of different types of fuzzy rules together in a single fuzzy inference system. In many real world problems, some problem subspaces were found to be more suitable for one type of fuzzy rule than others and, therefore, by integrating multiple types of fuzzy rules together, a better prediction can be made. The type of fuzzy rule assigned to each unique problem subspace also provides additional understanding of its characteristics. The Integrated Temporal and Spatial Multi-Model System is a different approach to integrating two contrasting views of the problem for better results. The temporal model uses recent data and the spatial model uses historical data to make the prediction. By combining the two through a dynamic contribution adjustment function, the system is able to provide stable yet accurate prediction on real world data modelling problems that have intermittently changing patterns. The personalised regression model is designed for classification problems. With the understanding that real world data modelling problems often involve noisy or irrelevant variables and the number of input vectors in each class may be highly imbalanced, these issues make the definition of unique problem subspaces less accurate. The proposed method uses a model selection system based on an incremental feature selection method to select the best set of features. A global model is then created based on this set of features and then optimised using training input vectors in the test input vector’s vicinity. This approach focus on the definition of the problem space and put emphasis the test input vector’s residing problem subspace. The novel generic prediction methods listed above have been applied to the following three real world data modelling problems: 1. Renal function evaluation which achieved higher accuracy than all other existing methods while allowing easy to understand rules to be extracted from the model for future studies. 2. Milk volume prediction system for Fonterra achieved a 20% improvement over the method currently used by Fonterra. 3. Prognoses system for pregnancy outcome prediction (SCOPE), achieved a more stable and slightly better accuracy than traditional statistical methods. These solutions constitute a contribution to the area of applied information science. In addition to the above contributions, a data analysis software package, NeuCom, was primarily developed by the author prior and during the PhD study to facilitate some of the standard experiments and analysis on various case studies. This is a full featured data analysis and modelling software that is freely available for non-commercial purposes (see Appendix A for more details). In summary, many real world problems consist of many smaller problems. It was found beneficial to acknowledge the existence of these sub-problems and address them through the use of local or personalised models. The rules extracted from the local models also brought about the availability of new knowledge for the researchers and allowed more in-depth study of the sub-problems to be carried out in future research.

This research aims at finding a foundation for assessment of capabilities and applying the concept in a human resource selection. The research identifies a common ground for assessing individuals’ applied capability in a given job based on literature review of various disciplines in engineering, human sciences and economics. A set of criteria is found to be common and appropriate to be used as the basis of this assessment. Applied Capability is then described in this research as the impact of the person in fulfilling job requirements and also their level of usage from their resources with regards to the identified criteria. In other words how their available resources (abilities, skills, value sets, personal attributes and previous performance records) can be used in completing a job. Translation of the person’s resources and task requirements using the proposed criteria is done through a novel algorithm and two prevalent statistical inference techniques (OLS regression and Fuzzy) are used to estimate quantitative levels of impact and utilisation. A survey on post graduate students is conducted to estimate their applied capabilities in a given job. Moreover, expert academics are surveyed on their views on key applied capability assessment criteria, and how different levels of match between job requirement and person’s resources in those criteria might affect the impact levels. The results from both surveys were mathematically modelled and the predictive ability of the conceptual and mathematical developments were compared and further contrasted with the observed data. The models were tested for robustness using experimental data and the results for both estimation methods in both surveys are close to one another with the regression models being closer to observations. It is believed that this research has provided sound conceptual and mathematical platforms which can satisfactorily predict individuals’ applied capability in a given job. This research has contributed to the current knowledge and practice by a) providing a comparison of capability definitions and uses in different disciplines, b) defining criteria for applied capability assessment, c) developing an algorithm to capture applied capabilities, d) quantification of an existing parallel model and finally e) estimating impact and utilisation indices using mathematical methods.

Cognitive radio is a intelligent technology that helps in resolving the issue of spectrum scarcity. In a spectrum sharing network, where secondary user can communicate simultaneously along with the primary user in the same frequency band, one of the challenges in cognitive radio is to obtain balance between two conflicting goals that are to minimize the interference to the primary users and to improve the performance of the secondary user. In our thesis we have considered a primary link and a secondary link (cognitive link) in a fading channel. To improve the performance of the secondary user by maintaining the Quality of Service (Qos) to the primary user, we considered varying the transmit power of the cognitive user. Efficient utilization of power in any system helps in improving the performance of that system. For this we proposed ANFIS based opportunistic power control strategy with primary user’s SNR and primary user’s channel gain interference as inputs. By using fuzzy inference system, Qos of primary user is adhered and there is no need of complex feedback channel from primary receiver. The simulation results of the proposed strategy shows better performance than the one without power control. Initially we have considered propagation environment without path loss and then extended our concept to the propagation environment with path loss where we have considered relative distance between the links as one of the input parameters.