It may be argued that ours is far away from a sustainable society. For all the technological wonders that we have been able to produce, some basic problems such as lack of universal access to the means to satisfy one's basic needs, human rights violations, systematic degradation of the environment, among others are still present. Not for a lack of effort, but scientific progress, political effort and economic growth appear to have real limitations in their capability to help us solve some of these problems that have endured through time. Donella Meadows, an expert in systems analysis, has developed a comprehensive list of points to intervene in a system in order to effect change. Using that framework as a basis, the present study aims to try to identify potential reasons for why most of the efforts conducted so far to solve some of the previously mentioned fundamental problems appear not to be so effective. Many of the fundamental assumptions of the mainstream economic school that heavily influence policy making and individual behavior to a large extent, have been identified as potentially important leverage points being pushed in the wrong direction! Economic powers and vested interests allow for the erosion of the self-controlling elements of the global political-economic system such as democratic institutions, what Meadows classifies as weakening of negative feedback loops. The mainstream economic models promoting "success to the successful" loops such as accumulation of resources in the hands of a few, all the while concentrating power can be pointed out as an example of a positive loop getting dangerously out of control. Uncontrolled positive loops inevitably lead to system collapse. Concentration of power is specially dangerous as it can bestow upon an elite the power to set the rules of the system, one of the most effective leverage points according to Meadows. Additionally, by curtailing biological, ideological and cultural diversity we are compromising one of the fundamental conditions for our systems to endure threatening changes, the ability to self-organize, or evolve. The most powerful leverage point is the paradigm out of which the whole system is constructed. The current mainstream economic thinking is fundamentally based on a single paradigmatic assumption of scarcity by mean of the supposed impossibility of satisfying human material wants, as 'new wants are always emerging'. In this mindset, it seems to make sense for the economic system to promote limitless growth and accumulation under the assumption of unlimited material wants. In the possibility to transcend such a paradigm lies an important potential for leverage in the efforts to solve the fundamental problems that still hold our society from attaining sustainability.

With society’s growing population and the earth’s limited resources, the current world food system is unsustainable. Slow Food USA (SFUSA) is an existing food-related Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) focusing on the expansion of Good, Clean, and Fair food. This research aims to help SFUSA to strategically support society’s move towards sustainability. To do this, the authors used the Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (FSSD) to examine the current reality of SFUSA, where the opportunities and challenges for the organization to strategically plan toward sustainability were identified. The authors then used Leverage Points (LPs) to identify opportunities for how SFUSA can strategically intervene in the world food system to create change and the challenges that exist in doing so. The results of this research allowed the team to create a list of recommendations. Of these results, five were picked as the most strategic recommendations for SFUSA: 1) Co-create a shared common vision of sustainable food for society 2) Define a common language and branding among chapters that are in alignment with SFUSA 3) Implement a strategic planning process founded in a principle-based definition of sustainability 4) Expand educational outreach to specific targeted groups at the chapter level 5) Advocate for policy changes to remove barriers to widely available and affordable, sustainably produced agriculture.

Smallholder livestock keeping and agriculture systems in the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) seem to be caught into poverty traps, in as much as they cannot any longer provide ecosystem services on which local communities depend for their survival. I used a regime shifts framework to carry out a thorough assessment of these two case studies in arid and semi-arid lands and smallholder by identifying relevant traps and alternate desirable regimes. Using systems analysis and modelling, I drew casual loop diagrams of the two case studies, which helped me to identify the feedback loops that maintain the systems in undesirable traps and the external driving forces of change. A set of interventions points or leverage points were identified to change the dynamics of the systems and shift them towards more desirable regimes. Essentially, a structural change of both systems is called for if sustainable livelihoods in the rural areas of the SSA are to be seriously envisaged. Human capital investments present the main opportunity for facilitating escape from poverty by transforming farmers to non-farmers and livestock keepers to non-livestock keepers.

Human society faces serious environmental and social threats as a result of systemic unsustainable actions and values. This is a time of cultural self-evaluation and profound change. This study examines how 13 social and environmental change-based organizations, through network partnerships and a robust organizational knowledge-base, are responding to these challenges. A systems perspective was used as a guide to promote a holistic understanding of the actors within the system, their perceptions of success, strategies, actions and tools used to guide them toward sustainability. The results indicate that organizations seeking to scale-up their impact toward sustainability might benefit from the following success factors: 1. Collaboration with diverse partners to contribute to more effective interventions in complex systems, 2. Integrating comprehensive definitions of sustainability with organizational vision to facilitate success, 3. The application of leverage points and transparent prioritization processes to asure congruence between organizational purpose and actions, 4. Practices of dialogue and deep listening build rewarding partnerships and, 5. Metrics that support partnerships and gauge progress toward sustainability. In conclusion network partnerships have the potential to generate widespread sustained change and can be supported by complex systems science and a Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development.

Society is on an unsustainable course, predicted to reach a tipping point where greenhouse gas emissions cause irreversible consequences. The cement industry is estimated to be responsible for 7% of the global CO2 emissions, but remains an essential part of building safe and affordable infrastructure for an urbanising and growing population. It is imperative that the industry urgently transitions to a more sustainable pathway. As a key stakeholder, the construction industry could play a role in this. This paper looks at the sustainability of the cement production process from a systems perspective and how the construction industry can help leverage change, using the FSSD and Meadows’ (1999) leverage points as a framework. An analysis of the cement production method against the misalignments with the FSSD Sustainability Principles was performed, as well as a document content analysis of the WBCSD 2018 roadmap for the cement industry. We also conducted 9 semi-structured interviews with experts in the cement and construction industry. Results showed that while CO2 emissions are the biggest challenge for the industry, change will not happen fast enough while a number of structural barriers prevent this. These barriers, their potential solutions and leverage points within the construction industry are discussed.

This thesis started with the discovery that in Sweden, about 70% of wool, a valuable material, is wasted in 2017. In recent years, a local value chain in Sweden has gained momentum to increase the use of Swedish wool as a circular and sustainable fibre for the textile industry in the country. This thesis aimed at suggesting a strategic approach to strengthen the Swedish wool value chain. To do so, we used the leverage points framework as a systems thinking lens to uncover system dynamics and assess what is most needed in the system through semi-structured interviews. Then, a systematic literature review was conducted to uncover interventions contributing to sustainable transformations in the global wool value chain and suggest a strategic approach for the Swedish case. The key leverage point that emerged as a result of the research is enhancing the capacity to self-organise as a system, which can happen through increasing collaboration, fostering a structure for learning and flows of information. The strategic intervention that we suggested is to establish a ‘connector’ in the system in order to facilitate underway projects as well as collaboration in a national perspective to develop and expand the use of Swedish wool.

Human-wildlife conflicts (HWC) emerge as complex conservation challenges impairing human livelihood and wildlife populations. Research on HWC, however, has traditionally approached these components apart and focused on single/ similar species, hampering a broader understanding of the connections between ecological drivers and human dimensions of conflicts. We here develop and test a model integrating ecological and human components of HWC, focusing on three species - opossum, crab-eating fox and puma. We investigated the pathways through which the ecological context (forest cover) affects experiences with wildlife (contact and damage), and how such experiences influence tolerance via beliefs, emotions and attitude. We interviewed 114 landowners across 13 landscapes varying in forest cover in a region of the Brazilian Atlantic forest and tested our model using Piecewise Structural Equation Modeling. We found that: i. forest cover negatively affected tolerance, but just towards the largest species; ii. relevance and effects of distinct experiences with wildlife on beliefs and emotions varied across species; iii. beliefs and emotions influenced tolerance, but negative emotions were relevant only for the largest species. Conflicts with larger species can then be understood as disservices provided by forests, indicating the relevance of framing HWC within a broader perspective that consider the trade-offs with ecosystems services. For some species, positive experiences with wildlife may counteract the negative effects of damages to livestock in shaping human behavior. Models such as ours - that structure relationships between ecological and human components - can help identifying deeper, more effective leverage points to improve interventions to mitigate HWC / Conflitos entre seres humanos e fauna silvestre emergem como desafios complexos, ameaçando o sustento de populações humanas e a conservação de populações de animais silvestres. Contudo, pesquisas sobre conflitos tradicionalmente abordam esses componentes separadamente e focam em espécies individuais ou similares, dificultando o entendimento mais amplo das conexões entre determinantes ecológicos e dimensões humanas dos conflitos. Neste estudo, desenvolvemos e testamos um modelo conceitual integrando componentes ecológicos e humanos dos conflitos, focando em três espécies - gambá, cachorro-do-mato e onça-parda. Investigamos os caminhos através dos quais o contexto ecológico (cobertura florestal) afeta experiências (contato e dano), e como tais experiências influenciam a tolerância à fauna por meio de crenças, emoções e atitude. Entrevistamos 114 proprietários rurais em 13 paisagens com diferentes proporções de cobertura florestal em uma região da Mata Atlântica e testamos nosso modelo usando equações estruturais do tipo Piecewise. Encontramos que: i. a cobertura florestal afetou negativamente a tolerância, mas apenas para a maior espécie; ii. a importância e os efeitos de diferentes experiências com a fauna sobre crenças e emoções variaram entre as espécies; iii. crenças e emoções influenciaram a tolerância, mas emoções negativas foram relevantes apenas para a maior espécie. Conflitos com espécies maiores podem então ser entendidos como desserviços providos por florestas, indicando a relevância de inserir os conflitos humano-fauna em perspectiva mais ampla, que considere as relações com serviços ecossistêmicos. Para algumas espécies, experiências positivas podem compensar os efeitos negativos dos danos a criações na formação do comportamento humano. Modelos como o nosso - que estruturem as relações entre os componentes ecológicos e humanos - podem ajudar a identificar pontos de alavancagem mais profundos e efetivos para melhorar intervenções visando a mitigação dos conflitos com a fauna

Os modelos logísticos trinomiais podem ser interpretados como uma extensão natural do modelo logístico binomial para situações em que a resposta admite apenas três resultados. Introduzimos inicialmente os modelos logísticos trinomiais e discutiremos em seguida alguns aspectos inferenciais, tais como estimação e testes. Medidas de qualidade do ajuste são também apresentadas. Contudo, o principal foco deste trabalho é a apresentação de métodos de diagnóstico. Mostramos que as técnicas usuais de diagnóstico desenvolvidas para o modelo logístico binomial podem ser adaptadas para o caso trinomial. O desenvolvimento de métodos diretos para o modelo logístico trinomial é mais complexo do ponto de vista computacional, embora seja sempre possível. Discutimos alguns desses métodos, dentre os quais, o desenvolvimento de resíduos, de métodos para detectar pontos de alavanca, métodos de deleção de pontos e influência local. Comparamos os métodos adaptados com alguns métodos diretos através de exemplos. / The trinomial logistic models can be interpreted as a natural extension of the traditional binomial logistic model to situations in which the response allows only three possible results. We firts introduce the trinomial logistic modles and then some inferential aspects, such as estimation and hypothesis testing are discussed. Good-of-fit measures are also given. However, the aim of this work is the presentation of some diagnostic procedures for trinomial logistic models. We show that methods developed for binomial logistic models can adapted straightforward for trinomial models. The developement of direct methods, even though possible, in general requires more complex calculation. Some of these direct methods, suchs as evaluation of residuals, measures of high leverage points, deletion methods and local influence are apresented. Coparisons between adapted and direct methods are made via examples with real data.

Human-wildlife conflicts (HWC) emerge as complex conservation challenges impairing human livelihood and wildlife populations. Research on HWC, however, has traditionally approached these components apart and focused on single/ similar species, hampering a broader understanding of the connections between ecological drivers and human dimensions of conflicts. We here develop and test a model integrating ecological and human components of HWC, focusing on three species - opossum, crab-eating fox and puma. We investigated the pathways through which the ecological context (forest cover) affects experiences with wildlife (contact and damage), and how such experiences influence tolerance via beliefs, emotions and attitude. We interviewed 114 landowners across 13 landscapes varying in forest cover in a region of the Brazilian Atlantic forest and tested our model using Piecewise Structural Equation Modeling. We found that: i. forest cover negatively affected tolerance, but just towards the largest species; ii. relevance and effects of distinct experiences with wildlife on beliefs and emotions varied across species; iii. beliefs and emotions influenced tolerance, but negative emotions were relevant only for the largest species. Conflicts with larger species can then be understood as disservices provided by forests, indicating the relevance of framing HWC within a broader perspective that consider the trade-offs with ecosystems services. For some species, positive experiences with wildlife may counteract the negative effects of damages to livestock in shaping human behavior. Models such as ours - that structure relationships between ecological and human components - can help identifying deeper, more effective leverage points to improve interventions to mitigate HWC / Conflitos entre seres humanos e fauna silvestre emergem como desafios complexos, ameaçando o sustento de populações humanas e a conservação de populações de animais silvestres. Contudo, pesquisas sobre conflitos tradicionalmente abordam esses componentes separadamente e focam em espécies individuais ou similares, dificultando o entendimento mais amplo das conexões entre determinantes ecológicos e dimensões humanas dos conflitos. Neste estudo, desenvolvemos e testamos um modelo conceitual integrando componentes ecológicos e humanos dos conflitos, focando em três espécies - gambá, cachorro-do-mato e onça-parda. Investigamos os caminhos através dos quais o contexto ecológico (cobertura florestal) afeta experiências (contato e dano), e como tais experiências influenciam a tolerância à fauna por meio de crenças, emoções e atitude. Entrevistamos 114 proprietários rurais em 13 paisagens com diferentes proporções de cobertura florestal em uma região da Mata Atlântica e testamos nosso modelo usando equações estruturais do tipo Piecewise. Encontramos que: i. a cobertura florestal afetou negativamente a tolerância, mas apenas para a maior espécie; ii. a importância e os efeitos de diferentes experiências com a fauna sobre crenças e emoções variaram entre as espécies; iii. crenças e emoções influenciaram a tolerância, mas emoções negativas foram relevantes apenas para a maior espécie. Conflitos com espécies maiores podem então ser entendidos como desserviços providos por florestas, indicando a relevância de inserir os conflitos humano-fauna em perspectiva mais ampla, que considere as relações com serviços ecossistêmicos. Para algumas espécies, experiências positivas podem compensar os efeitos negativos dos danos a criações na formação do comportamento humano. Modelos como o nosso - que estruturem as relações entre os componentes ecológicos e humanos - podem ajudar a identificar pontos de alavancagem mais profundos e efetivos para melhorar intervenções visando a mitigação dos conflitos com a fauna

Os modelos logísticos trinomiais podem ser interpretados como uma extensão natural do modelo logístico binomial para situações em que a resposta admite apenas três resultados. Introduzimos inicialmente os modelos logísticos trinomiais e discutiremos em seguida alguns aspectos inferenciais, tais como estimação e testes. Medidas de qualidade do ajuste são também apresentadas. Contudo, o principal foco deste trabalho é a apresentação de métodos de diagnóstico. Mostramos que as técnicas usuais de diagnóstico desenvolvidas para o modelo logístico binomial podem ser adaptadas para o caso trinomial. O desenvolvimento de métodos diretos para o modelo logístico trinomial é mais complexo do ponto de vista computacional, embora seja sempre possível. Discutimos alguns desses métodos, dentre os quais, o desenvolvimento de resíduos, de métodos para detectar pontos de alavanca, métodos de deleção de pontos e influência local. Comparamos os métodos adaptados com alguns métodos diretos através de exemplos. / The trinomial logistic models can be interpreted as a natural extension of the traditional binomial logistic model to situations in which the response allows only three possible results. We firts introduce the trinomial logistic modles and then some inferential aspects, such as estimation and hypothesis testing are discussed. Good-of-fit measures are also given. However, the aim of this work is the presentation of some diagnostic procedures for trinomial logistic models. We show that methods developed for binomial logistic models can adapted straightforward for trinomial models. The developement of direct methods, even though possible, in general requires more complex calculation. Some of these direct methods, suchs as evaluation of residuals, measures of high leverage points, deletion methods and local influence are apresented. Coparisons between adapted and direct methods are made via examples with real data.