Submitted by Alida Walvis (alida.walvis@gmail.com) on 2014-08-27T17:11:00Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Alida Walvis - Dissertação - Versão Final.pdf: 1045978 bytes, checksum: 8472ab09a23c6051cd977235b4a6528c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Gisele Gammaro (gisele.gammaro@fgv.br) on 2014-08-29T17:26:38Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Alida Walvis - Dissertação - Versão Final.pdf: 1045978 bytes, checksum: 8472ab09a23c6051cd977235b4a6528c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Gisele Gammaro (gisele.gammaro@fgv.br) on 2014-08-29T17:43:58Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Alida Walvis - Dissertação - Versão Final.pdf: 1045978 bytes, checksum: 8472ab09a23c6051cd977235b4a6528c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-09-23T13:57:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Alida Walvis - Dissertação - Versão Final.pdf: 1045978 bytes, checksum: 8472ab09a23c6051cd977235b4a6528c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-30 / There are many challenges inherent to the functioning of a sector as complex as the electricity sector, in which the results of a given measure may take years until it reaches maturity and only then its impact on the institutional framework gets to be fully known by the policy makers. Taking the electricity sector as a backdrop, this dissertation presents the basis for what would be an ideal reform, usually referred to in the literature as 'textbook reform', followed by a presentation of the regulatory evolution of the Brazilian electricity sector, from 1930 until early 2014, with special emphasis on the reforms that took place during the period of 1995 to 2004. The bibliographic research presented in this dissertation is divided into four chapters and analyzes the present situation of the liberalization of the Brazilian electricity market and suggests feasible improvements in order to develop this market in Brazil. / São muitos os desafios intrínsecos ao bom funcionamento de um setor tão complexo quanto o elétrico, em que os efeitos de determinada medida podem levar anos até a maturidade, e só então ser totalmente conhecidos os seus impactos sobre a estrutura setorial como um todo, dificilmente antecipados pelos formuladores das reformas implementadas. Tomando o setor elétrico como pano de fundo, o escopo desta dissertação é apresentar as bases para o que seria uma reforma ideal, denominada na literatura 'reforma de livro texto' e, em seguida, discorrer sobre a evolução regulatória do setor elétrico brasileiro de 1930 até o início de 2014, detalhando, especialmente, as características das reformas ocorridas em 1995 e 2004. Com esse esforço de pesquisa, que adota a técnica bibliográfica e se estrutura em quatro capítulos, pretende-se analisar a situação atual do mercado livre de energia elétrica brasileiro e propor melhorias passíveis de implementação com o objetivo de desenvolver este mercado no Brasil.

[pt] O setor elétrico está passando por uma série de transformações para acomodar a transição energética. Dentre essas mudanças, destaca-se a liberalização do mercado, com maior autonomia dos consumidores e possibilidade de migração entre os mercados regulado e livre. Este contexto adiciona complexidade à tarefa das distribuidoras de energia de projetar a sua demanda futura e realizar as contratações de energia para o mercado cativo, uma vez que devem servir consumidores cada vez mais dinâmicos e, consequentemente, um portfólio mais instável. Ainda, a migração de consumidores para o mercado livre tem o potencial de gerar sobrecontratação das distribuidoras, incorrendo em sobrecustos a elas e aos consumidores cativos remanescentes. Este trabalho propõe um modelo de otimização para determinar os preços de equilíbrio para os mercados livre e regulado em um mercado liberalizado. Dada a interdependência das decisões dos agentes (distribuidora, consumidores cativos, consumidores livres e geradores), as suas interações serão modeladas como Múltiplos Problemas de Otimização com Restrições de Equilíbrio (MOPEC), em que os problemas de maximização de receitas de cada agente são combinados em um único problema de otimização, e conectados por restrições de equilíbrio. Demonstra-se ainda que o MOPEC proposto pode ser representado por um problema de programação linear. Os agentes são modelados avessos a risco, sendo suas funções objetivos individuais representadas como a combinação convexa do valor esperado e do Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) de suas receitas. Entre os resultados do modelo, destacam-se os níveis ótimos de migração dos consumidores, decisões de contratação, e preços de contratos no mercado livre e tarifas no mercado regulado. São também apresentadas e modeladas diferentes propostas regulatórias para o tratamento dos passivos associados à sobrecontratação das distribuidoras. O modelo é aplicado em um estudo de caso simplificado e outro com dados realistas do sistema elétrico brasileiro. Finalmente, acopla-se o modelo em um processo iterativo que determina a expansão ótima do sistema, de forma que as decisões de contratação e preços resultantes geram sinais econômicos aos investimentos em expansão da capacidade de geração. Essa metodologia é aplicada em um estudo de caso, com exercícios de expansão da geração do sistema elétrico brasileiro. / [en] The power sector is undergoing a series of transformations to accommodate the energy transition. Among these changes, the market liberalization stands out, with greater consumer autonomy and the possibility of migration between the regulated and free markets. This context adds complexity to the task of energy distribution companies to project their future demand and to contract energy to serve the captive market, as these contracts should serve increasingly dynamic consumers and, consequently, a more unstable portfolio. Moreover, the migration of consumers to the free market may generate over-contracting of distributors, incurring extra costs for it and for the remaining captive consumers. This work proposes an optimization model to determine the equilibrium prices in the free and regulated environments in a liberalized market. Given the interdependence of agents decisions (distributors, captive consumers, free consumers and generators), their interactions are modeled as Multiple Optimization Problems with Equilibrium Constraints (MOPEC), in which each agent s revenue maximization problems are combined into a single optimization problem, and connected by equilibrium constraints. It is demonstrated that the proposed MOPEC can be represented by a linear programming problem. The agents are modeled as risk-averse, with their individual objective functions represented as the convex combination of the expected value and the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) of their revenues. Among the results of the model, we highlight the optimal levels of consumer migration, contracting decisions, and contract prices in the free market and tariffs in the regulated market, for a given system configuration. In addition, different regulatory proposals are presented and modeled for the treatment of liabilities associated with the over-contracting of distributors. The model is applied in a simplified case study and another one with realistic data of the Brazilian power system. Finally, the model is integrated in an iterative process that determines the optimal system expansion, so that the resulting contracting decisions and prices generate economic signals for investments in generation capacity expansion. This methodology is applied in a case study comprising generation expansion exercises of the Brazilian power system.

This dissertation collects three essays which deal with financial development in emerging markets. Owing to the appliance of different econometric methods on several data sets, insights in the behavior of and the impacts from financial markets are generated. Usually, the financial markets in emerging countries are characterized by the presence of credit constraints. In the first chapter it is shown that the financial development in 19th century Germany generally affected the economy in a positive way. Additionally, when different economic sectors are under investigation, it is revealed that the reaction due to financial development is not homogeneously across the sectors. A structural vector autoregression (VAR) framework is applied to a new annual data set from 1870 to 1912 that was initially compiled by Walther Hoffmann (1965). With respect to the literature, the most important difference of this analysis is the focus on different sectors in the economy and the interpretation of the results in the context of a two-sector growth model. It is revealed that all sectors were affected significantly by shocks from the banking system. Interestingly, this link is the strongest in sectors with small or non-tradable-goods-producing firms, such as construction, services, transportation and agriculture. In this regard, the growth patterns in 19th century Germany are reminiscent to those in today's emerging markets. The second chapter deals with the integration of the stock markets of mainland China with those of the United States and Hong Kong. Market integration and the resulting welfare gains as risk sharing, increasing investment and growth benefits has become a central topic in international finance research. This chapter investigates stock market integration after stock market liberalization which is assessed by spillover effects from Hong Kong and the United States to Chinese stock market indices. Dividing the sample in pre- and post-liberalization phases, causality in variance procedure is applied using four mainland China stock market indices, two indices of the stock exchange in Hong Kong and the Dow Jones Industrials index in the main part. Evidence of global and regional integration is found, but no evidence for increasing integration after the partial opening of the Chinese stock markets, neither with Hong Kong nor with the United States. Based on the idea presented in the first chapter, the third chapter examines one of today's emerging markets. As China is experiencing remarkable economic growth in the recent decades, it is analyzed if and to what extent the ongoing deregulations in the financial system contribute to this development. Structural VARs for gross domestic product as well as for sectoral output data in conjunction with two different bank lending variables are applied. It is indicated that China is positive affected by financial development and that all sectors benefit from domestic bank lending enlargements but to different degrees. Especially in the sectors where mainly state-owned enterprises are represented - such as construction, trade and transportation - shocks in bank lending have a strong positive influence while sectors where private enterprises are prevalent, seem to be more credit constrained.

九十四年我國財產保險業之簽單總保費收入為新台幣1,185.02億元，其中汽車保險之簽單保險費收入為新台幣588.62億元，占我國財產保險業簽單總保費收入的49.67%，故汽車保險之簽單保險費收入於九十四年居財產保險市場各險種之冠。同時汽車保險業務量占全體產險業務量的比重，一直維持在45%-50%之間，由於汽車險業務量之消長連帶影響各產物保險公司的現金流量及公司在市場的排名，故汽車保險業務的經營深受各產險公司老闆的重視。 我國汽車保險業務的來源可分直接通路及間接通路兩種，間接通路來源的業務量占全部汽車險業務量的40%，其中汽車經銷商保險代理人(簡稱車商保代)及經紀人的業務來源就占有30%。 台灣汽車險市場各保險公司的市場占有率，經過產險同業大家多年的努力經營，已大致固定。由於車商保代及經紀人的業務大都屬新車業務，故其業務量占汽車險市場新車業務量的比重甚大，因此遂為每家保險公司業務經營極力爭取的對象。再者必須注意的是汽車險商品因受到過往規章費率的影響，同質性很高，在無法明顯區隔市場的情形下，保險公司如欲增加業務量，最迅速有效的方式就是提高佣金及配合車商保代的要求，搭配一定比率的回廠維修率。此種「蠟燭兩頭燒」的業務經營，在社會經濟景氣時，保險公司尚可依靠投資收益來挹注增加的成本，但景氣不好時，保險公司的負擔將會超過其所能承受的部份，導致經營產生虧損或發生危機。此由寶來證券集團在中央產物的經營汽車險業務，因經營結果與其預期不一致時，最後轉手美商AIG集團，即是最佳寫照。 本篇論文主要係在探討競爭市場下汽車險業務經營管理策略，並以寶來證券集團在中央產物經營汽車險業務的結果為個案研究。首先介紹台灣汽車險市場的現況，接著並就費率自由化的實施，探討其對台灣汽車險市場的影響，同時也針對汽車險市場經營的瓶頸加以瞭解及提出解決之道，筆者也藉此提供個人的些微建議，希望能對政府擬訂監理政策及產險同業透過汽車險業務經營策略的再思考，藉由創新商品的開發及行銷通路的多元化等多方的努力，以對開創台灣汽車險業務經營的藍海策略有所助益，是本篇論文提出的最主要目的。 / In 2005, the written premium of automobile insurance was NT$ 58.87 billion, occupied 49.67% and the majority part of the written premium of non-life insurance in Taiwan（the written premium of non-life insurance was NT$ 118.5 billion in 2005）. In the meantime, the business portfolio of automobile insurance to non-life insurance remain at 45%-50% steadily. Because the growth and decrease of business portfolio of automobile insurance will significantly influent the ranking and the cash flow of non-life insurance companies, the owners of non-life insurance companies pay highly attention on the operation of automobile insurance. In Taiwan, the source of automobile insurance can be divided into two parts: direct market approach and indirect market approach. Indirect market approach contributed 40% business income, and the automobile insurance agents contributed 30% premium income. The market share of non-life insurance business is approximately fixed. Due to the business scope of automobile insurance agents and brokers are selling the new cars, the non-life insurance companies give ultimate efforts to attract them. Moreover, we must pay attention on the fact that the automobile insurance commodities is homogeneous, the reason is affected by the tariff of regulator, therefore, under the premise that the market can’t be obviously divided, if the insurance companies still intend to raise its’business portfolio, the most rapid and efficient way is to lift up commission to match the commission requirement of automobile insurance agents, and to collocate with certain ratio of damaged car requiring and/or regular maintence. This kind of operation mode makes insurance company can cover the cost by its investing profit while economic boom, but will overload while economic depression, then causing operating crisis. The most conspicuous case is that the Polaris Securities Group sold Central Insurance Company（CIC）to AIG Group while Polaris Securities Group found the operating results of automobile insurance business in CIC was inconsistent with its anticipation. This thesis mainly discusses the operating and management strategy of automobile insurance in a competitive market, and give an example by Polaris Securities Group’s running automobile insurance business in CIC for case study. The thesis first introduces the current condition of Taiwan automobile insurance market, then probe into the influence of rate liberalization to the said market. Simultaneously, to understand the predicament of automobile insurance market and bring up the possible solution. The author provides some suggestions for government agency to draw up supervisory policy and for non-life insurance companies to set up operating strategy. By the way of innovating insurance commodities and diversifying marketing routes, the author hopes that it will helpful to jointly inaugurate the“Blue Ocean Strategy”of the operation of Taiwan automobile insurance. It’s the main goal of this thesis.