This research examines the content and process involved in developing criminal profiles. To assess the material typically included in profiles and the way that the conclusions are developed, a qualitative analysis of the content of profiles was undertaken. This included, among other things, the characteristics offered, their prevalence, and the most common characteristics by profiling method. A further quantitative study was undertaken employing Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) which revealed three general themes in the advice given. These included Crime Scene, Internal Offender and Offender Characteristic facets, each of which was comprised of features suggestive of that facet. For example, the Crime Scene facet typically described offender actions and their interpretation at the physical location of the criminal event, such as staging and methods of control.The study employed a sample of 49 profilers reflective of the four main schools of thought; Criminal Investigative Analysis (CIA), Investigative Psychology (IP), Diagnostic Evaluations (DE) and Behavioural Evidence Analysis (BEA). CIA profiles were greatest in number with a sample size of 19. There were 14 BEA profiles and 8 each of DE and IP profiles. Together, there were in excess of 3000 individual variables ranging from age, sex and race to employment, geography, mental illness and risk.Results indicate that the vast majority of profilers employ either research or personal belief in forming their opinions, and that physical evidence is used the least in justifying a profiler’s opinion. However, when considering the individual methods, BEA placed the greatest reliance on physical evidence and its interpretation according with the forensic science philosophy of the method. CIA, the method used by the FBI, produced the most characteristics of the sample at 312 across 19 profiles, followed by BEA at 166 characteristics across 14 profiles. IP and DE profiles, with a sample size of eight each, had 90 and 61 characteristics respectively.Beyond these findings, the implication of the research will be discussed and some future direction for this research and the field in general will be provided. These areas include education, training, the scientific method and professionalisation. This thesis will also canvass the issue of whether profiling is an art or a science with particular reference to the research results and the existing literature that has bothered to address this issue.

This research examines the content and process involved in developing criminal profiles. To assess the material typically included in profiles and the way that the conclusions are developed, a qualitative analysis of the content of profiles was undertaken. This included, among other things, the characteristics offered, their prevalence, and the most common characteristics by profiling method. A further quantitative study was undertaken employing Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) which revealed three general themes in the advice given. These included Crime Scene, Internal Offender and Offender Characteristic facets, each of which was comprised of features suggestive of that facet. For example, the Crime Scene facet typically described offender actions and their interpretation at the physical location of the criminal event, such as staging and methods of control.The study employed a sample of 49 profilers reflective of the four main schools of thought; Criminal Investigative Analysis (CIA), Investigative Psychology (IP), Diagnostic Evaluations (DE) and Behavioural Evidence Analysis (BEA). CIA profiles were greatest in number with a sample size of 19. There were 14 BEA profiles and 8 each of DE and IP profiles. Together, there were in excess of 3000 individual variables ranging from age, sex and race to employment, geography, mental illness and risk.Results indicate that the vast majority of profilers employ either research or personal belief in forming their opinions, and that physical evidence is used the least in justifying a profiler’s opinion. However, when considering the individual methods, BEA placed the greatest reliance on physical evidence and its interpretation according with the forensic science philosophy of the method. CIA, the method used by the FBI, produced the most characteristics of the sample at 312 across 19 profiles, followed by BEA at 166 characteristics across 14 profiles. IP and DE profiles, with a sample size of eight each, had 90 and 61 characteristics respectively.Beyond these findings, the implication of the research will be discussed and some future direction for this research and the field in general will be provided. These areas include education, training, the scientific method and professionalisation. This thesis will also canvass the issue of whether profiling is an art or a science with particular reference to the research results and the existing literature that has bothered to address this issue.

Title from first page of PDF document. Includes bibliographical references (p. Xx-Xx).

Thailand has been often affected by severe flood events over the past century. The 2011’s Thailand Flood Catastrophe was the costliest in country’s history, and it was ranked to be the second most damaging natural hazard in the world in terms of economic losses. The Chao Phraya River Basin was noted to be the most vulnerable area prone to flooding in Thailand. The dynamics of flood risk in the river basin have changed drastically over the past fifty years. In particular, flood exposure increased due to rapid urbanization and population growth. Since 2012, integrated flood risk management has been addressed to be the major framework of water-related disasters with the goal of losses and damage reductions. However, there is currently little research in Thailand on how to quantify flood risks and mitigate flood inundation damage on the relation between the occurrence of flood events and their consequential socio-economic implications. In this study, a tradition method in flood risk assessment is implemented by integrating 2D hydrodynamic modelling and the assessment of socio-economic impact of floods into the Chao Phraya River Basin. More specifically, the fully 2D version of the LISFLOOD-FP model code was used to model flood inundation processes. The output of the model was then used to map inundation depth and assess the levels of physical/environmental risk associated to flood hazards on multiple receptors/elements at risk. The European Flood Directive and the KULTURisk methodology were applied to quantify flood risks in monetary terms for residential, industrial, and agricultural sectors. The 2011 flood event was used for model calibration, while a hypothetical flood event with a return period of 100 years was simulated to identify the potential flood losses. Depth-damage functions comprising of JRC-ASIA, the Flemish, and JICA models were used to estimate potential damage for residential and industrial structures. The results showed that LISFLOOD-FP could satisfactorily reproduce the flood inundation extent obtained from satellite imagery in 2011. The model performance (Critical Success Index or F1) was of 56%, with a Bias of 112%. The latter meant the total inundated area was 12% larger than flood extent’s observation. Moreover, the model could simulate flood levels with overall Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 2.03 m a.s.l. and 1.78 m a.s.l., respectively. For the estimation of flood damage and losses, the Flemish model showed the strongest agreement with the reported flood damage in the residential sector, while JICA-ASIA model underestimated flood damage for industrial sector by just 1%. The KULTURisk methodology also well-estimated crop losses in the 2011 event which an overestimation about 21% from the reported value. Apart from that, fully 2D numerical method could not perfectly represent 1-in-100 year flood inundation due to non-consideration of important features such as the precise river channel topography, hydraulic infrastructures, and flood protection schemes in the river basin. Lack of such features results in an overestimation of flood damage and losses for 1-in-100 year flood comparing to the national flood hazard map and damage assessment which are simulated and estimated by JICA’s study. Such features can be better handled by using a coupled 1D/2D numerical method in order to simulate flood inundation extent more realistically and estimate flood losses. This could help the Thai government to better prepare a budget for flood risk prevention. In addition, even if the Flemish model indicates a good representation of relative flood damage to housing structures, the government should establish depth-damage curves specific for Thailand.

Between the researcher and the participant: Requirements on sociological research methods and techniques Abstract The dissertation thesis deals with the design of methods and techniques which mediate the commnunication between a researcher and a participant (in-depths, surveys, etc.). The aim of the paper is to comprehensively assess a research practice by a number of criteria and thought experiments. The paper discusses 24 requirements which could be set on the method. It is rooted in the revised moderated neopositivist paradigm specifically from Carnap's concept of observation and theoretical language. It is further enhanced with the concept of conceptual spaces and the social representations concept. The extended theoretical approach is called "achieving the explanation" and it emphasizes (1) the meaning of theoretical assumptions of the scientific model including methodological aspects. (2) The common knowledge is approached as a complex social representation not only an attitude. (3) It stresses the importance of so called fix points which enable the translation between common and scientific knowledge. The thesis is focused on the process of designing the research in all its stages, on the theoretical and conceptual principles and on specific aspects of cooperation with participants.

To underpin and improve advice given to government and other interested parties on the state of Britain’s common songbird populations, new models for analysing ecological data are developed in this thesis. These models use data from the British Trust for Ornithology’s Constant Effort Sites (CES) scheme, an annual bird-ringing programme in which catch effort is standardised. Data from the CES scheme are routinely used to index abundance and productivity, and to a lesser extent estimate adult survival rates. However, two features of the CES data that complicate analysis were previously inadequately addressed, namely the presence in the catch of “transient” birds not associated with the local population, and the sporadic failure in the constancy of effort assumption arising from the absence of within-year catch data. The current methodology is extended, with efficient Bayesian models developed for each of these demographic parameters that account for both of these data nuances, and from which reliable and usefully precise estimates are obtained. Of increasing interest is the relationship between abundance and the underlying vital rates, an understanding of which facilitates effective conservation. CES data are particularly amenable to an integrated approach to population modelling, providing a combination of demographic information from a single source. Such an integrated approach is developed here, employing Bayesian methodology and a simple population model to unite abundance, productivity and survival within a consistent framework. Independent data from ring-recoveries provide additional information on adult and juvenile survival rates. Specific advantages of this new integrated approach are identified, among which is the ability to determine juvenile survival accurately, disentangle the probabilities of survival and permanent emigration, and to obtain estimates of total seasonal productivity. The methodologies developed in this thesis are applied to CES data from Sedge Warbler, Acrocephalus schoenobaenus, and Reed Warbler, A. scirpaceus.

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[pt] Web sites são projetos complexos, que incorporam elementos de Design e de Informática, para a disponibilização de conteúdo na World Wide Web. O presente trabalho parte da hipótese de que Web sites de grande porte, institucionais ou não, que demandam atualização rápida, diária e organizada, apresentam características de projetos de Desenho Industrial, onde é necessária a existência de registros que tornem possível sua reprodução e continuação. Sendo assim, sua documentação é uma ferramenta fundamental em seu processo de manutenção e gerência, e deve servir como uma ferramenta eficiente para o mesmo. A pesquisa aprofundou-se no processo de geração da documentação do Web site da PUC-Rio. Foram consideradas questões de Design e Informática presentes nesse processo, bem como questões de fronteira e interseção entre essas duas áreas, com o objetivo de levantar e analisar dados, e extrair recomendações e conclusões a respeito de questões metodológicas, formatos e formas de representação da informação envolvidas na geração de sua documentação, bem como o uso da mesma como uma ferramenta de apoio ao processo de desenvolvimento e manutenção do site em estudo. Foram identificados vários possíveis desdobramentos de caráter interdisciplinar para essa pesquisa e devido ao ainda pequeno número de publicações a respeito do tema aqui abordado, acredita-se que a mesma ofereça uma relevante contribuição para o preenchimento de lacunas existentes nas áreas de conhecimento relacionadas a documentação, manutenção e gerência de Web sites. / [en] Web sites are complex projects, that incorporate Design and Computing elements, for content publication in the World Wide Web. The present work has as a starting point the hypothesis that large scale Web sites (corporate ones or not), which demand fast, daily and organized updates have caracteristics of Industrial Design Projects, where it is necessary the existence of documents that make possible their reproduction and continuity. Therefore, the documentation is a fundamental tool that should work efficiently in its update and management process. This research work focus on the documentation process of PUC- Rio`s Web site. It has been taken into account Design and Computing issues present in this process, as well as issues present in the border and intersections of these two areas. The objective was to analise the data collected, and extract recommendations and conclusions about the methodologic issues, forms and formats of information representation envolved in the generation of PUC-Rios Web Site documentation and its use as a tool for the sites developing and updating process. There have been identified many interdisciplinary aspects of this research s theme that can be studied further on. And considering the small number of publications with similar approach, we believe this work represents an important contribuition to the areas related to Web sites documentation, updating and management.

This diploma thesis is dedicated to the needs of the piano teaching for kids from 6 to 9 years old in Albania who decide to study piano playing. This work contains a methodology that is based on professional playing starting from middle C to counter hand movement to playing directly with both music clefs, the treble and the bass one. The methodology is inspired by the world's modern methods and needs for the proper development of the child. Contains well-known, popular songs and classical pieces in a lighter version to achieve more easier and fun piano beginnings. The work is divided into five chapters, which introduce not only the musical life in Albania, but also the insufficient conditions for teaching piano. It also contains a selection of the most famous piano textbooks and albums that exist in Albania, which were used before for piano teaching and probably from that time nothing better or improved came out. And last but not least, the aim that is wanted form this work to be achieved is bringing the new ideas and innovation of my own piano methodology.