The aim of this study is to analyse political-security risk in Uganda. It emanates from the research question: Does Uganda pose a political-security risk to prospective foreign investment or involvement? The need to move beyond a political risk analysis without entering into a country risk analysis, poses the research problem to develop a political-security risk analysis framework and to apply it to Uganda. This problem generates three subsidiary questions: How appropriate (or inappropriate) are existing risk analysis frameworks? Do existing frameworks contain generic elements that can provide a basis for a synthesised framework? To what extent is a country specific framework applicable to other countries? Therefore, three sub-problems are addressed, namely to determine the appropriateness of selected frameworks; to identify generic elements to construct a synthesised framework; and to assess the applicability of this framework for the analysis of political-security risk in other African countries. Following a definition of the concepts risk, country risk, political risk and political-security risk (analysis), selected frameworks for risk analysis were analysed. The generic elements of these frameworks, namely The Economist (EIU), Business Environment Risk Intelligence (BERI), International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) and Political Risk Services (PRS) frameworks, were reduced to three categories and synthesised into a single framework which was applied to Uganda. The categories of risk indicators pertained to security, political and socio-economic risks respectively. These indicators and the allocated risk scores were used to construct a political-security risk index in respect of which the summed scores provided an index figure of risk that was interpreted in accordance with an interpretation scale. In respect of Uganda, its more recent political history was described and the political, security and socio-economic circumstances prevailing in the country analysed. These conditions were assessed and measured against the indicated risk factors and according to the risk index. The summed political-security risk index score for Uganda was 55.5 out of a maximum of 100. In accordance with the interpretation scale, this constitutes an intermediate risk. Based on this Uganda is not, at present, the most suitable destination for foreign investment or involvement. This does not disallow investment or involvement but if indeed the case, it should be done with circumspection. The situation is volatile to the extent that it can rapidly change for the better or the worse, depending on trends concerning the risk categories, or more specifically a turn of events in respect of a particular key risk indicator. Since the synthesised risk analysis framework is able to accommodate key variables pertaining to politics and security in African states, and since it has provided an indication of risk in respect of Uganda, it is suggested for application to other African states. The need for modification, based on the particularities of other countries, is not excluded. It is also proposed that similar exercises be conducted at intervals of six months. This will indicate whether the variables used were, in fact, valid and reliable, and whether additional variables should be included. The repetition of the analysis also indicates risk trends and allows for the monitoring of risks, which will be conducive to risk management. / Dissertation (MSS (Political Sciences))--University of Pretoria, 2003. / Political Sciences / unrestricted

This paper explores the relationship between presidential elections and sovereign credit default swap (CDS) returns, as well as, equity returns in the Latin American countries, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. In particular, this paper tests whether or not presidential elections, which potentially represent political uncertainty and risk, affect sovereign CDS returns. I also analyze stock returns during the elections of each country to establish benchmarks that I compare to the CDS returns. Specifically, I evaluate the movement of CDS and equity adjusted returns (i.e. returns measured as deviations from average returns) over 7 presidential elections from 2005 to 2011. The baseline panel regression did not find statistical significance in the dummy election coefficients, but did find significance in the equity intercept coefficient at the 10 percent level. This result suggests that, on average, adjusted equity returns were higher during election periods than adjusted equity returns outside of election periods. I discuss the implications of these results later in the paper.

In this paper, we examine the relationship between political risk as an international environmental determinant of capital structure as well as other factors that contribute to capital structure including leverage, foreign exchange risk, agency costs of debt, and collateral value of assets. We conducted this research on a sample of 200 Singaporean, non-financial, listed domiciled multinational firms over the period of 2005 to 2009. The results suggest that political risk is irrelevant to the multinational capital structure, foreign exchange risk, agency costs of debt, and (netted) collateral value of assets. We find that the results remain unchanged after controlling for size and industry. The findings produce evidence that foreign exchange risk, as another international factor is also irrelevant to the Singaporean multinational capital structure choice. Additionally, agency costs of debt and (netted) fixed assets have a negative association with leverage for Singaporean multinational corporations.

Submitted by Fabio Sobreira Campos da Costa (fabio.sobreira@ufpe.br) on 2017-05-05T12:45:19Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Dissertação_Gardiner_Gabriel.pdf: 3755831 bytes, checksum: 77fadca7de2cf1f6ed974df044baae45 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-05T12:45:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Dissertação_Gardiner_Gabriel.pdf: 3755831 bytes, checksum: 77fadca7de2cf1f6ed974df044baae45 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-08-22 / OEA- Organização dos Estados Americanos / This dissertation attempts to analyze the concept of political risk, its evolution and application both within the academic and market setting. An endeavor to contribute to the quantification of the political risk field is made via econometric modeling. Overall, 6 different indicators for political risk are employed in the empirical analysis. The results show that political risk is a highly significant determinant to foreign investment inflows on emerging market countries. Though political risk is a phenomenon that is present in all countries both highly industrialized and still developing, this study is focused on the emerging market economy. Due to the rise in importance of the emerging market within the global economy, special emphasis is dedicated towards the new capitalist tools developed by the administrators of the emerging market economy. / Esta dissertação tenta analisar o conceito de risco político, sua evolução e aplicação tanto acadêmica quanto mercadológica. Com um modelo econométrico, pretende-se contribuir para a quantificação no campo do risco político. O trabalho emprega seis indicadores diferentes de risco político. Os resultados mostram que o risco político é um determinante altamente significativo do fluxo de investimento estrangeiro direto nos países de mercado emergente. Embora o risco político seja um fenômeno presente em todos os países, altamente industrializados e também nos ainda em desenvolvimento, este estudo se foca nas economias de mercado emergentes. Devido à crescente importância dos mercados emergentes na economia global, ênfase especial é dedicada aos novos instrumentos capitalistas (fundo soberano, empresa estatal e campeão nacional) desenvolvidos por administradores de economias de mercado emergente.

In a competitive and increasingly internationalized business world, many companies rely on the high risk of operating in unstable areas. Those companies willing to engage in other countries can often be exposed to a politically volatile environment over which they have little control. I focused in this thesis on political risk, because it is one of the most hazardous challenges that an international business can face. Although political risk is not a new phenomenon, concern over it has increased significantly in recent years. This new prominence has been reflected in an outpouring of articles on the subject in the business press, wider academic attention, commitment of resources to access political risk by a significant number of international firms, and large number of consulting firms offering services to help management to come to grips with political problem abroad. Political risk as potentially significant managerial contingencies is generated by political events and processes. But that statement begs a number of important questions. First, and perhaps the least tractable, is the scope of the relevant environment in terms of the specific meaning attached to political events and processes. Second, defining political risk in terms of contingencies suggests the presence of uncertainty. Third question is, whether political risk discourage Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The accurate assessment of political risk can make the difference between success and failure for the company. While environmental or political risk assessment has become an explicit function in many companies and is inherent in all foreign investment, the uncertain ties of foreign political environments continue to pose critical problems for managers. This thesis also aims to provide space for theoretical support to political risk assessment. It explores methods, institutional and organizational basis of political risk assessment. Last chapter is devoted to looking at the political risk problems in Brazil, and the risks that firms might face by doing business in the country. With growth set to continue, it has been forecast that by 2025 Brazil will become the world's fifth largest economy, overtaking Britain and France, while Sao Paulo will rank higher than Paris and Shanghai as the world's sixth wealthiest city. Many of investors see growth opportunities in Brazil's mining, energy, and agriculture sectors. Infrastructure presents another opportunity. With the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics being held in the country, many companies in the communications and tourism industries stand to reap the rewards.

This thesis analyzes the impact of political risk for investment decision-ing-on invest-ments into large investment projects. The failure of investors in the field of large in-vestment projects is the vast majority caused by the politic-social grounds, whose quan-tification is extremely difficult. Political risk affects economic conditions and the stabil-ity of the environment, therefore knowledge of its development is essential for the prop-er investment decisions. His predictions are quantitative level problematic. The method used qualitative modeling falls within the field of artificial intelligence and used to model the trend. The work describes the process of creating qualitative model, its inter-pretation and recommendations for use in investment decisions.

Compared to other areas of Finance, the field of Project Finance is a relatively unexplored area for both empirical and theoretical research. And in particular, most of the research to date has focused more narrowly on risk management through financial instruments. From another point of view and by looking at different types of projects, Cross Border projects are usually considered 'high risk', mostly due to a lack of adequate overseas environmental information and overseas project experience. Given this setting, this research aims to explore risks attributed to Cross Border Project Financed projects and understand why South African companies should or should not use Project Finance for their Cross Border projects.There were two phases to the research. The first phase consisted of an analysis of literature on Project Finance, the Cross Border project context and Risk Management processes and, the further analysis of fourteen case studies where Cross Border projects have used Project Finance. This was with the aim of extracting risks and relevant allocation and mitigation methods. The second phase consisted of ten interviews with South African Project Finance experts, based on findings from phase one. This phase’s aim was to explore the practical risk allocation and mitigation methods and compare them to what was said in theory, making recommendations for further research into Project Finance in South Africa.The first phase resulted in a broad description of the theory of risks associated with Cross Border Project Financed projects and those specific risks and allocation or mitigation methods addressed in Cross Border projects that have used Project Finance as their financing vehicle. The second phase produced a comparative scheme between what is being addressed in theory as risk allocation and mitigation methods and what is being exercised in South African Project Financed projects. This comparison showed that Project Finance is a recommended financing vehicle for Cross Border projects provided that required due diligence and homework are done upfront. It was concluded that there is a gap between theory and practice in terms of risk allocation and mitigation methods developed for Cross Border Project Financed projects. This research provided a framework to introduce similarities and differences between theory and practice and ended up with a set of recommendations for further research into Project Finance. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

This study informs on the ways in which Swedish multinational companies (MNCs) operating in Russia perceive and respond to the corruption they face whilst operating there, coming from a home country with a low level of corruption, Sweden, in relation to Russia, a country with a high level of corruption. The study uses a qualitative research method, conducting semi-structured interviews with six senior executives from Swedish MNCs that have, or are currently working in Russia for the Swedish firm. The study informs on the forms and processes of corruption in Russia, and informs on not only how this impacts the operations of Swedish firms operating there, but also the measures they take to respond to this. The results indicate that corruption is widespread in Russia. Swedish MNCs saw bribery, state sector operations, and subcontractors as some of the areas where corruption was particularly prevalent. Swedish MNCs perceive corruption in Russia as inevitable and a liability of foreignness, permeating many aspects of operations in Russia. An overarching theme throughout the interviews and analysis was the notion of Swedish firms in Russia trying to find a mid-ground by balancing the demands of the HQ with the demands of the Russian business environment. Additionally, Swedish MNCs saw education, personnel policy, regulations and networking as some of the key areas for responding to corruption. The study contributes to existing knowledge of corruption, and specifically corruption in Russia, and contributes not only knowledge of Swedish firms operating in Russia, but of firms originating from countries with a low level of corruption operating in countries with a high level of corruption in general.

NOTE: Pages 133-134 are missing and there are 2 copies of page 31. see document This is an exploratory study that empirically examines the relationships between United States' tourism channel firms' power, African country destination's political risk events and touristic attributes and their effects on firm performance. Tourism channel firm performance is conceptualized as having five dimensions: the number of trips generated, repeat business, package tour sales, profits and new destinations. The link between these dependent variables and their relationship to channel power, destination attractiveness and political risk is the principal focus of this study. Data for the study were collected using a structured questionnaire mailed to the population of tour operator, travel agents and other destination marketing organizations, airline and hotel companies who are members of the Africa Travel Association (N=450) between December 1995 and February, 1996. One hundred and twenty nine respondents completed the survey, yielding a response rate of 28.6%. Nonrespondents were also profiled to ensure respondent representativeness. Data were analyzed using Factor Analysis and Multiple Regression. The results from factor analysis delineated tourism channel power into two main factor groupings - internalization power factors and technological power factors. The internalization power factors include the use of staffing, management, proprietary research and acquisition of supply firms as techniques used by U.S. tourism channel firms to dominate; while the technological factors used include expert systems, computerized communications and reservation systems. These factors explain 68.5% of the total variance. Three main factor groupings emerged from the factor analysis of touristic attributes in African destinations: (1) Natural resource factors, which constituted climatic, geographic, beach, floral and faunal stock, scenery, landscape, vegetation and wildlife activities; (2) Cultural/Ethnic factors, constituting tribal life, ethnic customs and historic monuments; (3) Activity factors - hunting safaris, local tribal life participation and local shopping .Overall, the total variance explained by these factors amount to 51.5%. Regarding the factor groupings for political nsk, two main factors emerged: (1) Regionalized Political Risk Events, constituting civil wars, revolution, coups d’etat, factional conflicts, border conflicts and the like; (2) Globalized Political Risk Events- high inflation rates, high external debt ratio, profit repatriation restriction, and negative world public opinion among others. These factors account for 70.8% of the total variance. Overall, five models emerged from the multiple regression procedure, constituting each of the individual dependent variables of performance: trip generation, repeat business, package tours, profits new destinations. The overall model for the dependent variable of percentage of trips generated was found to be statistically significant. Furthermore, this model explains 34.7% of the total variance for trips generated by United States’s tourism channel firms to Africa. The model of the dependent variable of repeat business reveals that only 29.5% of the variance is explained by the dependent variable. Furthermore, the model is not statistically significant. The model depicting the dependent variable of package tours and the individual independent variables explains 47.2% of the variance, and is statistically significant. The multiple regression model for the dependent variable of number of new destinations entered in Africa constitutes the fifth model. The overall model explains 45.85% of the total variance, and is highly significant. However, of all the factors included in the model regionalized political risk factors appears to affect new destinations negatively. / Ph. D.

This paper compares Russian and US oil stock performance in terms of risk adjusted returns and volatility with an emphasis on political risk. This is done through using the Sharpe ratio and expanding the notion of risk-free interest rates to capture different levels of political risk in monetary terms. The comparison is made on the DJUSEN and the MOEXOG during 2011-2019. The result of the study shows that Russian oil stock performed significantly worse than its US equivalent during the period both in terms of risk adjusted returns and volatility. These results are thought to be of importance for financial investors, be they private individuals or institutions.