[pt] A expansão dos satélites como infraestrutura crítica para esforços de mitigação e reversão de mudanças climáticas, assim como a relevância desses engenhos espaciais para a expansão da conectividade social, impele a formação de cadeias de suprimentos estáveis capazes de assegurar a indústria nacional as condições de sucesso no desenvolvimento de projetos no setor de satélites. Mais ainda, o Brasil pode explorar sua posição geopolítica para ligar-se de forma mais proveitosa às cadeias globais de valor do setor aeroespacial. Diante desse contexto, o objetivo deste trabalho é entender a perspectiva do setor aeroespacial brasileiro face aos eventuais riscos políticos advindos da cooperação Sino-Brasileira em matéria de satélites (CBERS). Visa-se, dessa forma, identificar possíveis comportamentos da indústria nacional diante de futuras conjunturas internacionais assim como gerar dados que contribuam para a divulgação das vantagens de realizar projetos espaciais com o Brasil. A metodologia utilizada foi a elaboração de uma sondagem por meio de formulário com empresários e funcionários da indústria aeroespacial brasileira, além de entrevistas com lideranças desse setor. Os resultados encontrados apontam que a percepção do ambiente de riscos da cooperação é marcada por incerteza, embora a descontinuação do projeto CBERS não seja vista como provável. O impacto percebido pela indústria é de que um eventual fim da cooperação afetaria principalmente a infraestrutura da indústria de satélites brasileira negativamente, mas também possivelmente viabilizaria novas parcerias internacionais no eixo de cooperação Norte-Sul. A presente pesquisa limita-se a analisar a percepção de risco do setor, abstendo-se de uma avaliação factual sobre a real probabilidade, impacto e incerteza de um fim do programa CBERS. Também, o presente estudo foi feito de forma exploratória com pequena amostra de dados, por isso as conclusões aqui encontradas ainda precisam ser fortalecidas por novas investigações. / [en] The expansion of satellites as a critical infrastructure for efforts to mitigate and reverse climate change, as well as the relevance of these space devices for expanding social connectivity, calls for the formation of stable supply chains capable of ensuring that the national industry has the conditions to succeed in developing projects in the satellite sector. What is more, Brazil can exploit its geopolitical position to link itself more effectively to global value chains in the aerospace sector. Given this context, the aim of this work is to understand the Brazilian aerospace sector s perspective on the possible political risks arising from the Sino-Brazilian cooperation on satellites (CBERS), in order to identify possible behaviors of the national industry in the face of future international conjunctures as well as to generate data that will contribute to publicizing the advantages of carrying out special projects with Brazil. The methodology used was the establishment of a survey with entrepreneurs and employees in the Brazilian aerospace industry and interviews with leaders in this sector. The results point to a risk environment characterized by uncertainty, although the discontinuation of cooperation is not seen as likely. The perceived impact of a possible end to the cooperation would affect notably the infrastructure of the Brazilian satellite industry, but would also possibly make new international partnerships in the North-South cooperation axis viable. This research is limited to analyzing the industry s perception of risk, refraining from a factual assessment of the real probability, impact and uncertainty of an end to the CBERS program. Also, this study was exploratory, working with a small sample of data, so the conclusions found here still need to be strengthened by further research.

This dissertation provides three models pertaining expropriation and production decisions in the natural resources industries. The first two chapters are intertwined: in these, the government relies on two tools to capture the rents from privately-owned Natural Resources Companies, a corporate income tax and the possibility of expropriating the assets. A real options model is used to assess the effect that progressiveness in taxation has on the political risk of a natural resources project. In the first chapter, we discover that under certain conditions for the underlying commodity: low prices or forward curves in backwardation - the introduction of an equivalent but more progressive tax regime decreases the political risk and the corresponding deadweight loss. However, when initial prices are too high or initial futures curves are in strong contango, the introduction of a progressive tax regime ends up significantly increasing the risks. In the second chapter, producers are able to foresee the risks of expropriation and thus change their behaviour: the results are mixed. As in the previous case, with lower prices and less tendency to expropriate, the scheduling of production allows for gains in the value of the operation for the firms. More progressive tax regimes end up being detrimental to the government, which in some cases can even result in a non-stable equilibrium with the producers and governments trying to outguess each other and end up cycling both the production and the expropriation probability in order to maximise their respective expected value for the operations. This has a detrimental effect for all parties involved. Finally, the third chapter introduces the possibility that a government levies royalties over sales. The development of home-based institutions is going to affect the amount of tax evasion that a government will face and thus determine the appropriate combination of taxes that it must choose. We find that when the host country's tax and technological capacity are too low, a state has no incentives to improve its institutions and becomes trapped in a low tax, low revenue situation: what we call a Royalty Trap. We end up by showing the evolution of tax capture in Chile during the 20th century to illustrate how these concepts might be applied.

Since ¡§Doi Moi¡¨ (renovation) begun in 1986, Vietnam has engaged in economic reform on an on-going basis in order to create a fruitful investment environment and attract foreign investors to engage in its market. As the total investment amount is over 19 billion US dollars, the role of Taiwanese investors played is more important than before. Notwithstanding that the investment environment in Vietnam has improved more significantly than ever, the enterprises¡¦ operation still has to bear considerable risk. Due to Vietnam¡¦s special single-party state constitution, for foreign investors, it is expected that the political risk is existed with the high feasibility of government change policies and ignore investors¡¦ benefits. According to this, the purpose of this research is to realize how the host¡¦s political risk influences Taiwanese MNEs¡¦ entry mode choice. As previous studies generally focused on the discussion of the relationship between political risk and entry mode choice, however, the moderating effects of firms¡¦ own resource and advantages are less mentioned. Therefore, this thesis tries to provide a theoretical framework based on resource-based view, eclectic theory and other related theories that includes profitability, financial structure, and R&D capability as the contingency factors to examine how these factors moderate the relationship between political risk and entry mode choice. The findings of this study reveal that when the political risk in Vietnam getting higher, Taiwanese MNEs are more likely to engage in Vietnam through JVs. Besides, the positive moderating effect of profitability is also existed. It shows when a firm with higher profitability, it will more tend to choose JVs as the political risk in Vietnam rising.

Submitted by Laura Nelson (nelson.lkn@gmail.com) on 2015-04-13T21:22:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 L Nelson - MPGI Thesis 2015.pdf: 3337611 bytes, checksum: 0d2c94b96220464f0b91982c3a7f727d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luana Rodrigues (luana.rodrigues@fgv.br) on 2015-04-14T12:04:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 L Nelson - MPGI Thesis 2015.pdf: 3337611 bytes, checksum: 0d2c94b96220464f0b91982c3a7f727d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-14T12:19:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 L Nelson - MPGI Thesis 2015.pdf: 3337611 bytes, checksum: 0d2c94b96220464f0b91982c3a7f727d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / Quantifying country risk – and in particular, political risk – poses great difficulties for business, institutions, and investors alike. As economic indicators are updated far less frequently than Facebook feeds, it can be challenging for political risk analysts to understand, and more importantly measure, what is taking place in real time on the ground. However, with the growing availability of big data from social media platforms such as Twitter, now is an opportune moment to examine the types of social media metrics that are available and the limitations to applying them to country risk analysis, particularly during episodes of political upheaval. This study, using the qualitative method of bibliographical research, identifies the current landscape of data available from Twitter, analyzes the current and potential methods of analysis, and discusses their possible application to the field of political risk analysis. After a thorough review of the field to date, and given the expected near- to medium-term technological advancements, this study concludes that despite obstacles like the cost of data storage, limitations of real-time analysis, and the potential for data manipulation, the potential benefits of the application of social media metrics to the field of political risk analysis, particularly for structured-qualitative and quantitative models, outweigh the challenges. / A quantificação do risco país – e do risco político em particular – levanta várias dificuldades às empresas, instituições, e investidores. Como os indicadores econômicos são atualizados com muito menos freqüência do que o Facebook, compreender, e mais precisamente, medir – o que está ocorrendo no terreno em tempo real pode constituir um desafio para os analistas de risco político. No entanto, com a crescente disponibilidade de 'big data' de ferramentas sociais como o Twitter, agora é o momento oportuno para examinar os tipos de métricas das ferramentas sociais que estão disponíveis e as limitações da sua aplicação para a análise de risco país, especialmente durante episódios de violência política. Utilizando o método qualitativo de pesquisa bibliográfica, este estudo identifica a paisagem atual de dados disponíveis a partir do Twitter, analisa os métodos atuais e potenciais de análise, e discute a sua possível aplicação no campo da análise de risco político. Depois de uma revisão completa do campo até hoje, e tendo em conta os avanços tecnológicos esperados a curto e médio prazo, este estudo conclui que, apesar de obstáculos como o custo de armazenamento de informação, as limitações da análise em tempo real, e o potencial para a manipulação de dados, os benefícios potenciais da aplicação de métricas de ferramentas sociais para o campo da análise de risco político, particularmente para os modelos qualitativos-estruturados e quantitativos, claramente superam os desafios.

We analyze the effect of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) on bilateral foreign portfolio investment in equity and debt securities. We find that expropriation risk and the level of a BIT’s investor protection are complementary. Applying a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood model to a panel of 60 home and 39 host countries from 2002 to 2017, we find that host countries receive 40% more bilateral equity investment when they protect foreign investors with a BIT. This effect almost doubles when investment protection of BITs is strong, and the political risk of the host country is high.

L'objectif de cette thèse est de décrire et d'expliquer le comportement du marché et des entreprises dans les pays émergents du Moyen-Orient et de la région du Golfe dont les économies ont engagé avec vigueur des programmes de réformes systématiques pour s'intégrer au marché mondial. Le risque politique est l'une des données majeures de cette région et pourrait avoir un impact significatif sur le domaine financier. Dans les faits cependant, le potentiel de ces économies, conjugué à la volonté des gouvernements de libéraliser l'économie et de développer le domaine de l'investissement, attire les investisseurs étrangers soucieux de rediriger leurs investissements après les dérives de la crise financière mondiale. La thèse se compose de trois essais. Le premier traite de l'effet des caractéristiques des entreprises et des pays concernés sur la structure du capital. Il se subdivise en deux parties: l'une concerne les seuls groupes d'entreprises, l'autre porte sur l'ensemble des entreprises cotées en bourse. Le deuxième essai s'intéresse à la gouvernance d'entreprise sur les marchés boursiers ainsi qu'à l'impact de l'application des normes de communication financière sur les valeurs boursières et sur les asymétries d'information. Le troisième essai est consacré à l'impact des facteurs liés à l'entreprise et au pays concerné sur les dépenses en capital de l'entreprise. Un chapitre introductif fait préalablement au lecteur une présentation de la région quant aux opportunités, obstacles et risques. Il en ressort au final d'intéressants résultats qui expliquent pour partie le comportement des entreprises et des investisseurs dans la région et qui ouvrent la voie à d'autres questions méritant investigations et explications. Cette thèse peut constituer, pour les économies émergentes, une aide à la planification de leur processus de développement. Elle représente un maillon important dans les recherches financières portant sur une région qui n'avait jamais été étudiée auparavant sous cet angle de façon aussi large, profonde et systématique. / The objective of this thesis is to describe and to explain corporate and market behavior in the emerging markets of the Middle East and the Gulf States region. These economies have started enthusiastically extensive reform programs to integrate into the world market. Political risk is a main feature in the region and can hold a significant effect on financial aspects. Meanwhile, the rich capabilities and capacities of these economies along with the governments' intent to liberalize the economies and develop their investment arena attract, in fact, foreign investors who want to redirect their investments to emerging markets after the deteriorations of the world financial crisis. The thesis is comprised of three essays: the first is about the effect of company and country characteristics on capital structure. This article is divided into two sub-articles; one is applied only on the group corporations and the other is applied on all the listed companies in all the markets. The second essay is about corporate governance in stock markets, and the effect of applying disclosure standards on stock prices and on asymmetric information. The third essay is about the effect of firm and country factors on firm's capital expenditure. Also an introductory article is prepared to introduce the region to the reader within the context of opportunities, obstacles, and risks. Very interesting findings evolved which explain some aspects of the behavior of corporations and investors in the region. The results open the gate to specific important questions and topics that need to be explained and investigated. This thesis can assist these emerging economies in the planning for the development process. It will be an important stone in our future financial researches on the region which has never been explored before so widely, deeply, and extensively.

在比較利益法則下的國際分工與國際貿易的蓬勃發展，使得企業全球化已是一不可避免的趨勢。企業從事海外活動時，對企業在當地營運有最直接影響者，首推「政治風險」。事實上，政治風險的重要性，正隨著國際事件的不斷發生與企業走向國際化而日形重要。台灣的政治地位非常敏感，我國廠商有部份的海外投資活動因而受到影響，然國內對政治風險議題之研究尚不多見，因此本研究透過個案研究之方式，將廠商面臨政治風險時之管理及因應策略作一較深入之探討，以期能針對政治風險管理提出「通用型」及「專用型策略」，供企業從事海外投資活動時之參考。 　　本研究之發現如下： 　　（一）企業界對「政治風險」的觀念，多數似乎仍侷限於與政治及政策變動有關之議題，而未將社會情勢及國際關係包含進去。 　　（二）企業對「政治風險」的看法，仍以負面影響為主，未考慮到其對企業可能帶來之正面效益。 　　（三）「價值鏈的切割」、「設立隔絕機制來阻絕風險」等之細部作法，以往的文獻尚未提及，但此舉卻可有效地管理政治風險。此外尚有一些細部作法，均可提供有意從事海外投資活動之廠商作參考。 　　（四）企業會在可承受之範圍內，以降低其他可控制之風險（如經濟性風險、管理風險等），來增加其因應政治風險之餘裕能力，並藉此降低總風險。 　　（五）本研究亦發現，國際關係對投資目標國的選擇有重大影響，且不僅止於母公司所在之母國、子公司所在之地主國的國際關係，事實上，銷售目標國與生產國之關係亦有顯著的影響。 　　（六）在個案訪談過程中，可發現業界對政治風險課題的關注程度，顯然仍較其他功能性政策（如行銷、生產、財務等）為低。一方面固然由於政治風險屬新興的研究課題，另一方面也可能是由於台灣企業國際化程度尚不深，而缺乏處理政治風險之經驗所致。 　　（七）政治風險之因應策略，若依廠商進入投資前與進入投資後來區分．可分為以下兩大類：(1)進入前策略：包括「慎選投資地點」、「投保政治險」、「調整進入策略」等；(2)進入後策略：包括「收集資訊」、「遵循當地法令」、「塑造企業形象」、「建立網路關係」、「保持政治中立」、「聘請當地人參與董事會」及「不斷引進新技術／新產品」等。 　　（八）若將政治風險的因應策略按「通用型」及「專用型」區分，則可區分如下：(1)通用型策略：包括「階段性投資」、「分散投資地點」、「慎選投資地區」、「降低其他風險」、「抵定應變計劃」、「本土化」，及「投保政治險」；(2)專用型策略：包括「建立網路關係」、「租賃廠房」、「建立隔絕機制」、「以夷制夷」、「與當地企業／政府合資」、「慎選外派員工」、「預設備用產能」、「價值鏈的切割」，及「增強企業本身議價力」等。

Project finance is a financing arrangement for projects, and it is characterised by the creation of a legally independent project company financed with non- or limited recourse loans. It is observed that the popularity of project finance is increasing in the recent decades, despite of the impact of Asian financial crisis. Especially in emerging markets, project finance is very common among the public-private partnership projects. It is possible that project finance yields some benefits in project management that other forms of funding are not able to provide. This research aims to explore the impacts of project finance on the risk management of projects, as well as the mechanisms of the effects of various factors on project risk management. The research starts with a quantitative analysis which consists of project data from 32 projects in recent years. The regression analysis on these quantitative data reveals that factors such as the separation of legal entity and existence of third-party guarantees can effectively reduce the borrowing rates of the projects. The borrowing rates, expressed in terms of credit spreads over LIBOR, are regarded as a proxy for the overall risk level of the projects. The qualitative section which involves five structured interviews further explores the relationships of the attributes of project finance on project risk management. The interviewees largely agrees on the effects of the separation of legal entity, non- or limited recourse loans, and the existence of third-party guarantees in managing political and country risks, business risks, and principal-agency risks. The involvement of a larger number of stakeholders in the projects enable the project to enhance its risk management ability by gaining external expertise and knowledge, influences on government policies, and more importantly, closer supervisions on project activities. Apart from revealing the important features of project finance, and the potential benefits it may yield on project risk management, the effectiveness of these features are also discussed. The study also examines the relationships between these features and the common risk factors which may affect all projects. Some recommendations to enhance the benefits of project finance and reduce the associated transaction costs are made based on this study.

This research investigates political risk in the context of service offshoring and the corresponding impact on risk management decisions. The first stage of the study uses the Repertory Grid Technique (RGT), to explore key post-contract political risks experiences within offshore outsourcing activities. Twelve key political risks affecting offshore outsourcing decisions are identified, and the moderating effect of offshoring activity types (BPO, ITO or KPO) on political risk exposure and impact perceptions is highlighted. The research also explores the conditioning effect of industry specific exposure to political risk and enhances the explanatory ability of the Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) constructs, offering a re-operationalization of the political risk component of external uncertainty. The second stage of the research introduces a series of hypotheses between offshoring flows and political risk profiles, and applies multiple regression to analyse political risk affecting offshore activities in low cost countries across contract-based offshoring engagements and FDI. The findings highlight that political risk is a genuine business concern for offshore contract-based outsourcing modalities, and identify concerns with Intellectual Property protection, Quality of Bureaucracy and Corruption as key considerations affecting location decisions in low-cost countries. The research further suggests a positive relationship between strong country level institutional and regulatory systems and high knowledge content in offshoring engagements. From a practical perspective, the research highlights the need for managerial tools to determine diversified firm and industry specific political risk impact on global service outsourcing engagements. The key practical contribution is the development of differentiated political risk typologies that can capture the nuances of external risks in offshoring, allowing for more accurate risk assessment of offshoring decisions.

This paper analyzes the impact of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) on sovereign bond returns of 25 emerging markets from 1993 to 2016. Under a BIT, foreign investors can use an international arbitration scheme to enforce compensation claims against the domestic government in case of direct or indirect expropriation. We focus on the so far unexplored effects of legal risk associated with BITs on sovereign creditworthiness. We find small unconditional effects of BITs on sovereign bond returns. Taking the heterogeneity of BITs and political regimes into account, we find robust and strong negative effects. In countries with high political risk of expropriation (measured by low executive constraints), we find that the implementation of investor-friendly BITs is associated with a significantly negative impact on sovereign bond returns, accounting for roughly 15% of bond returns’ standard deviation.