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The objective of this paper is to provide a review current literature on single family fixed rate mortgage prepayment estimation models and to determine a method to improve the estimation of mortgage prepayments for the purpose of projecting the cash flow from mortgage securities. Several prepayment methodologies and models were analyzed to find a method to enhance the forecasting of mortgage prepayments. It was determined that the mortgage prepayment model developed in this paper provides a better estimation of prepayments when homeowner's have a positive financial incentive to prepay their mortgage. / Master of Arts

[pt] A securitização desenvolvida no modelo de Steinert e Torres-Martínez(2005) é similar em muitos aspectos àquela encontrada no mercado de Mortgage- Backed Securities(MBS). Afinal, uma MBS é um título cujos fluxos de caixa são gerados por contratos de dívida garantidos por um imóvel. Porém, MBS estão sujeitas não só a risco de default, mas também a risco de pré- pagamento, já que qualquer um dos contratos de dívida que as lastreiam pode ser sempre pago, parcialmente ou integralmente, antes do vencimento pelo seu valor de face. Nesse trabalho construímos um modelo de equilíbrio geral com securitização e risco de default e pré- pagamento, tratando, assim, uma economia mais próxima ao mercado de MBS. / [en] The securitization developed in Steinert and Torres- Martínez (2005) model is similar in many aspects to that in the market for Mortgage-Backed Securities. After all, a MBS is a bond whose cash flows are generated by debt contracts insured by a property. However, MBS are subjected not only to default but also to prepayment risk, since any debt contract backing it can be paid partially or totally by its face value before retirement. In this work, we set up a general equilibrium model with securitization and both default and prepayment risks. By doing this, we model an economy more realistic when we consider the market for MBS.

Este trabalho apresenta uma análise de sistemas alternativos de pagamento de energia elétrica enfocando principalmente a utilização de pré-pagamento como forma de diminuir perdas comerciais de empresas distribuidoras. Adicionalmente enfoca o seu uso como forma de cobrança em sistemas isolados, rurais e urbano-rurais e comunidades de baixa renda. A análise inclui uma breve síntese de experiências no uso de pré-pagamento no mercado internacional de ?utilities? e no mercado nacional em setores como telefonia e distribuição de água. Além disso, esse trabalho descreve o desenvolvimento de um sistema de pagamento de energia elétrica utilizando cartões com tecnologia indutiva e unidades leitoras/gravadores com circuito de desconexão de linha e interface para medidores existentes no mercado nacional. Apresenta, ainda, o Cartão Vale Energia como alternativa ao subsídio para a subclasse residencial de baixa renda evitando, dessa forma, a necessidade do cadastramento do usuário junto às empresas concessionárias e racionalizando os procedimentos contábeis. São mostrados os resultados experimentais desse sistema e as análises de viabilidade econômica. / This work presents an analysis of alternative systems of electric energy payment focusing the pre-payment used mainly as a form to decrease commercial losses of local energy companies and an alternative form of payment in countryside areas, isolated electric installations and in poor areas for social purposes. The analysis includes one brief synthesis of international experiences in the daily pre-payment use in the utilities segment and national experiences in other areas such as telephony and water distribution. Moreover, this work develops an alternative form of payment of electric energy using cards with inductive technology and read/write units with circuit breakers and interfaces for electric measurement equipments. The experimental results show the technical and commercial viability of implantation in the commercial operation.

The mortgage system has been used for many years in many countries of the world. Although the system has undergone many changes over the passing years, the basics remain the same. So, it can be thought that the earlier systems form the basis of today&rsquo / s mortgage system even though it represents some differences in practice among the countries. However, this system is very new for Turkish financial market as compared with developed countries. The aim of this study is estimating the default and prepayment risk of mortgage contract and pricing the contract in emerging markets like Turkey. In this study, a classical option pricing technique based on Cox, Ingersoll and Ross [8] is used in order to evaluate Turkish fixed-rate mortgages. In this methodology, the spot interest rate and the house price are used as state variables and it is assumed that the termination decision of mortgage is driven by a economic rationale. Under this framework, the model evaluates the embedded options, namely prepayment and default options, and the future payments which corresponds to the mortgage monthly payments. Another aim of this study is the pricing of mortgage insurance policy which has not been used yet in Turkish mortgage market but thought as potential derivative in this market. Therefore, the model used in the study also provides values for mortgage insurance policy. The partial differential equation which is derived for the mortgage, its components and mortgage insurance policy does not have closed form solutions. To cope with this problem, an explicit finite difference method is used to solve the partial differential equation. Numerical results for the value of mortgage-related assets are determined under different economic scenarios. Results obtained in the basic economic scenario show that Turkish banks apply lower contract rates as compared with the optimal ones. This observation indicates that the primary mortgage market in Turkey is still in its infancy stage. Numerical results also suggest that it is beneficial for the lenders to have mortgage default insurance, especially for the high LTV ratio mortgages.

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This dissertation is structured in the form of two empirical essays, each investigating one type of irrational decision caused by mental accounting. The first essay, titled "Managing the Cost of Multiple Debt Accounts: A Behavioral Perspective", explores why many people pay off credit cards' with the lowest rate first when rationally speaking they should repay the debt with the highest rate most quickly. This essay suggests that irrationality emerges when people seek to close `mental accounts' associated with their credit cards and reduce the total number of outstanding loans rather than decrease the amount of total debt among all credit cards. Consumers want to be debt free. If they can get rid of debt, on even one credit card, they feel a sense of accomplishment which psychologically helps them manage remainder of their debt better. The second essay, titled "Saving by Overspending", explores consumers' over-expenditure and indulgent consumption when they make prepayments in the form of time, effort, or money toward a consumption goal. This essay proposes that people subconsciously try to get their prepayments' worth, but in fact they may be spending their money irrationally. In addition, contrary to common knowledge, this essay suggests that when a prepayment is unanticipated, the loss of self-control is often more prominent when prepayments are made with behavioral resources (e.g., time or effort) than equivalent monetary resources.

Thesis (MTech. degree in Business Information Systems.)--Tshwane University of Technology, 2011. / This dissertation argues that the use of mobile phones can offer opportunities for local governments and municipalities to effectively render services to citizens in ways that traditional mechanisms, such as vending points, cannot achieve. The empirical evidence has shown that mobile phones could be ideal for improving accessibility of prepaid electricity voucher services notably to consumers in the rural areas. The study utilized a case study using the Thulamela and Makhado municipalities. Informed by the case study, a model for improved accessibility of electricity prepaid vouchers was conceptualized.

Este trabalho apresenta uma análise de sistemas alternativos de pagamento de energia elétrica enfocando principalmente a utilização de pré-pagamento como forma de diminuir perdas comerciais de empresas distribuidoras. Adicionalmente enfoca o seu uso como forma de cobrança em sistemas isolados, rurais e urbano-rurais e comunidades de baixa renda. A análise inclui uma breve síntese de experiências no uso de pré-pagamento no mercado internacional de ?utilities? e no mercado nacional em setores como telefonia e distribuição de água. Além disso, esse trabalho descreve o desenvolvimento de um sistema de pagamento de energia elétrica utilizando cartões com tecnologia indutiva e unidades leitoras/gravadores com circuito de desconexão de linha e interface para medidores existentes no mercado nacional. Apresenta, ainda, o Cartão Vale Energia como alternativa ao subsídio para a subclasse residencial de baixa renda evitando, dessa forma, a necessidade do cadastramento do usuário junto às empresas concessionárias e racionalizando os procedimentos contábeis. São mostrados os resultados experimentais desse sistema e as análises de viabilidade econômica. / This work presents an analysis of alternative systems of electric energy payment focusing the pre-payment used mainly as a form to decrease commercial losses of local energy companies and an alternative form of payment in countryside areas, isolated electric installations and in poor areas for social purposes. The analysis includes one brief synthesis of international experiences in the daily pre-payment use in the utilities segment and national experiences in other areas such as telephony and water distribution. Moreover, this work develops an alternative form of payment of electric energy using cards with inductive technology and read/write units with circuit breakers and interfaces for electric measurement equipments. The experimental results show the technical and commercial viability of implantation in the commercial operation.