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本研究以保險事業發展中心之資料分析各種不同因子如年度、性別、保額、有無體檢、保費繳別、保單年度及利差、利率等對脫退率之影響，並將其中較具顯著影響的因子納入脫退率模型之建立，期望能藉此模型準確估計台灣壽險公司生死合險、終身壽險以及定期壽險之脫退率，進而幫助壽險公司之財務規劃。 自本研究之分析發現其中最具影響力之因子為保單生效後之保單年度，因此以此為主軸建立脫退率模型，接著，亦考量利差以及利率所呈現的趨勢於其中分別建立保單年度利差模型以及保單年度利率模型，此外，更完整考量本研究中脫退率相關因素，以羅吉斯迴歸方法建立模型。最後將此四種模型應用於壽險公司準備金之提存，以生死合險為例模擬公司現金流量，發現準備金之分配如同 Tsai et al.(2002)受利率風險影響甚鉅，而加入本研究所建立之四種脫退率模型模擬後，反而減少了公司未來所須面臨的利率風險，其中又以保單年度模型影響最大，而第四種脫退率模型不同於Tsai et al.根據台灣壽險經驗加入所有具影響之因素，其模擬結果介於保單年度模型以及保單年度利率模型間，可發現考量因素之不同對脫退率影響甚鉅，繼而影響準備金之提存。 / In this article, we focus on the causes and the features of lapse rate including year, sex, size, underwriting method, premium payment mode, policy year, interest rate and interest rate difference by collecting and analyzing the empirical data of endowment, whole life insurance and term life insurance in Taiwan from Taiwan Insurance Institute. Then we take factors that have effect with lapse rate into account to establish model, and we hope to accurately estimate the lapse rate of endowment, whole life insurance and term life insurance in Taiwan by these models, and assist the life insurance companies’ financial decision making. After analyzing, we find the most effective factor of this study is the policy year, which means the year after issuing, so we take this one as our primary consideration of our lapse rate model. Then we add the interest rate difference and interest rate in the further two models. Beside this, we further consider the important factors in the part of analysis and put it in the fourth model by using Logistic Regression Model. Finally, we apply these four models to the policy reserve of life insurance company by taking endowment policy as an example simulating the cash flow. We find that the results was same as Tsai et al. (2002) that distribution of policy reserve is strongly affected by interest rate risk, but can decrease interest rate risk the company have to face in the future by adding our lapse rate models, especially the policy year model, and the fourth lapse rate model which count into most factors was not the same as Tsai et al. producing result between policy year model and the policy- interest rate model. From the results of all the lapse rate model. We can know that considering different factors in the model will bring such distinct contribution amount of reserve for life insurance company.

Chronic anthropogenic disturbance has left many marine systems at risk of degrading into undesirable states. In many cases, ecosystem shifts are triggered by catastrophic disturbance events that are beyond the control of local management, such as coral bleaching or cyclones. Recognition of this risk has instigated what has been referred to as a new paradigm for marine stewardship; managing areas with the explicit goal of maintaining ecosystem resilience. Despite this, there has been little synthetic influence of resilience theory on marine conservation planning. This thesis focuses on how to make good decisions regarding the selection of marine protected areas (MPAs), in the face of catastrophic disturbance events and for the conservation of highly dynamic marine systems. Large-scale catastrophic events, although rare, lie generally beyond the control of local management and can prevent marine reserves from achieving biodiversity outcomes. In Chapter 2, I formulate a new conservation planning problem that aims to minimize the probability of missing marine conservation targets as result of catastrophic events. To illustrate this approach, I address the problem of minimizing the impact of large scale coral bleaching events on a reserve system for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. By explicitly considering the threat of catastrophic bleaching as part of the reserve design problem, it was possible to substantially improve the likely persistence of coral reefs within reserve networks, for a negligible increase in reserve cost. The results also demonstrate that simply aiming to protect the reefs at lowest risk of catastrophic bleaching does not necessarily lead to the best conservation outcomes. It is thought that recovery of marine habitats from uncontrollable disturbance may be faster in marine reserves than in unprotected habitats. But which marine habitats should be protected, those areas at greatest risk or those at least risk? In Chapter 3, I define this problem mathematically for two alternate conservation objectives and determine under which conditions each of the different protection strategies are optimal. With regard to the risk of uncontrollable disturbance, the optimal protection strategy depends on both the conservation objective and the expected rate of habitat recovery inside and outside protected areas. I illustrate this decision making with an example of cyclone disturbance of coral reefs on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. An adequate consideration of risk can indicate surprising routes to conservation success. The resilience of coral reef systems is closely linked to the presence of grazing herbivores. Although herbivore populations are generally protected through permanent static reserves, the benefits of protection are dynamic in both time and space. Periodically moving protection between reefs allows access to the greatest potential benefits of reservation and can help address social reluctance to permanently close areas. Using analytic methods to solve a theoretical case study, I demonstrate that periodically rotating protection around a reef system can lead to greater average reef resilience than under static protection, but only if the overall level of reservation is high enough or the rotation does not include all reefs in the system. The past ten years have seen increasing enthusiasm for MPAs as a tool for pelagic conservation. However, numerous criticisms have been levelled against the use of place-based management in such a dynamic environment. Evidence, tools and information to address these criticisms and establish the feasibility and relevance of pelagic MPAs are dispersed across the conservation, oceanography and fisheries management literature. In Chapter 5, I review this information and present a synthetic framework for systematic planning of pelagic MPAs. Although many of the lessons learned so far about MPA design in coastal systems can be transferred to pelagic systems, there are some fundamental differences and new challenges involved in the conservation of patchy and highly dynamic resources. These challenges are very much at the leading edge of new conservation science and are likely to stimulate solutions with impact far beyond the design of pelagic MPAs.

Marine protected areas are recognized as an important approach to conserve marine ecosystems and biodiversity as well as to manage costal and marine resource. This thesis addresses the development and management of marine protected areas in Australia and in China. Australia and China are major maritime countries with diverse marine creatures and ecosystems. Both countries have adopted marine protected areas as a management tool to protect the marine environment. This thesis introduces their marine environment and threats, and then makes a close study of the development, legislation and management of marine protected areas in both Australia and China. Two case studies, Jervis Bay Marine Park in Australia, and Shankou Mangrove Marine Nature Reserve in China provide examples of the management strategies and lessons learnt. In order to improve the management of marine protected areas in China, the thesis analyzes the conflicts in the development of marine protected areas in China and prescribes community participation and the marine special reserve as solutions to promote the development of marine protected areas. This study also examines how the Australian Defence Force, an important stakeholder, manages its activities in the marine protected areas.

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Vast progress has been made in detecting rates of tropical deforestation, yet the relationship between visible patterns of forest change, multi-scalar human processes and the underlying drivers associated with them is poorly understood. Building on satellite imagery, a household livelihood survey and semi-structured interviews, this research scrutinised changes of forest cover from the mid-1990s to 2015 in a municipality located in southeastern Mexico and investigated the proximate causes and underlying drivers of change at the household and community levels. Emerging evidence indicated that, contrary to the persistent narrative of deforestation for the region, forest cover change is highly dynamic including periods of deforestation and forest recovery. Moreover, a close examination of 24 communities showed forest cover gained terrain, while the agricultural frontier retracted. Drawing on a comparison between the household survey and previous analyses, it could be inferred that forest resurgence was produced by the decrease in the farming area and the increase in the abandonment of farming activities by some communities. Associated with the adaptation of households was the development of formal and informal institutions at the community level in response to macro-global forces linked to the implementation of forest conservation strategies, environmental degradation, market liberalization and increased urbanization. Overall, this research adds not only to our understanding of the complexity of land-use and cover change in emerging globalized economies but also exemplifies the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of tropical forest systems, which challenges partial models of deforestation and policies designed to reduce it. The research may be focused on a narrow region of the globe, nevertheless, the insights and recommendation provided may be useful to further forest conservation schemes in other tropical regions.

La présente recherche doctorale ancrée en Sciences de l’information et de la communication traite de la place de la réserve militaire dans la Politique publique d’Intelligence économique française. Interdisciplinaire par essence, attaché aux pratiques informationnelles et acteur-centré, notre travail de recherche vise une meilleure intelligence du fait social étudié en vue d’accroître la mobilisation et la participation des réservistes militaires au cœur de la Politique publique d’Intelligence économique.Trois apports majeurs découlent de notre étude : une analyse des mutations du volontariat en général et de la réserve en particulier, l’élaboration du panorama des activités de réserve touchant à l’Intelligence économique et la proposition d’un modèle agrégatif du profil motivationnel et d’engagement des réservistes militaires attachés à de telles missions. / The present doctoral research stands in the specific French field that mixes Information science and communication. It deals with finding the right place for the military reserve within the French public policy of competitive intelligence. It’s an interdisciplary work focusing on information practices and an actor-centered work. Our research brings three main elements : an accurate analyse of « volunteers’ transformations» and the consequences it fathers on management, a panorama of the competitive intelligence activities that reservists can perform (such as Cyberdefense, influence, defense industry, advice and training) and a proposal of a motivationnal and commitment profile for reservists dealing with information and particularly with competitive intelligence.

The aim of my thesis was to show the influence of legislative changes on the accounting of business corporations. Analyses were performed on actual legislative changes, which to the greatest extent related to the recodification of private law in the Czech Republic and their entry into force of law about and concerning commercial companies and collectives. These factors resulted in adjustments to several provisions of laws regarding accounting and related supplementary regulations. On the basis of these analysed legislative changes, case studies were subsequently developed for a specific business corporation, namely the company STAX Metal Fibers s.r.o. The individual parts of the case studies were developed according to the actual state of the business corporation, and these case studies may be used by the enterprise to enhance its business activities further. The suggestions were concentrated on the area of reserve funds created within the accounting entity, the introduction of common stock, the possibility of advance or down payment in proportion to share of profits and a proposal to use sanctions from outstanding claims. In the conclusion recommendations were made concerning legislation with a special focus on the ambiguity of some terms in different laws.

Há uma relação recíproca entre um dos objetivos das ciências administrativas – aumentar a produtividade do trabalho – e o crescimento do desemprego. Contudo, este tema é pouco explorado nessa área do conhecimento. Estudos que tratam direta ou indiretamente desta problemática costumam considerar que os desempregados ou são agentes empreendedores ou estão excluídos das relações de trabalho. Intentamos abordar este tema superando essas abordagens duais. Defendemos a tese de que os desempregados compõem um estrato populacional denominado exército de reserva (ER) e que este pode cumprir, no atual estágio de desenvolvimento das forças produtivas, um duplo papel, qual seja: regulador do preço da força de trabalho e agente contestatório do sociometabolismo do capital. Fundamentados, principalmente, nos estudos de Marx, Oliveira e Iasi, analisamos o mercado de trabalho tal como representado por instituições de pesquisas nacionais e internacionais e os dados coletados junto aos integrantes de um movimentos social formado por desempregados, o Movimento dos Trabalhadores Desempregados (MTD). O método dialético permitiu reconstituir o movimento dos múltiplos determinantes que sintetizaram a possibilidade de alterações qualitativas em parte do contingente em questão. Concluímos que o ER cumpre função estrutural econômica e ideológica de regular o preço da força de trabalho devido a, basicamente, dois fatores: 1) como superpopulação fluente, é uma reserva de força de trabalho que tende a deprimir o preço desta mercadoria à níveis crescentemente inferiores; 2) enquanto força de trabalho não utilizada diretamente pelo capitalista no processo de produção, os membros do ER, em sua manifestação como superpopulação estagnada, tendem a efetuarem trabalhos, seja na considerada economia informal seja na economia doméstica ou ainda na economia subterrânea, que satisfazem necessidades dos membros do exército ativo (EA) e do exército de reserva em sua manifestação fluente. Ao oferecerem produtos e serviços à baixo custo ao EA e ao próprio exército de reserva, a superpopulação estagnada colabora para o rebaixamento do valor da mercadoria força de trabalho, tendo em vista que esta, segundo a lei do valor, deve equivaler ao valor dos produtos necessários a sua reprodução. Defendemos, portanto, que no atual modo de produção capitalista em países periféricos opera-se, gradativamente, uma mudança qualitativa na consciência de classe desta parcela da classe trabalhadora que, sobretudo após o advento da reestruturação produtiva, apresenta tendência crescente de reposição contínua, isto é, mudança quantitativa que tem sido oportunizada, dentre outros fatores, pelo desenvolvimento do conhecimento administrativo. / There is a mutual relation between one of the administrative sciences objectives – increase labor productivity and unemployment growth. However, this theme is little exploited in this knowledge field. Studies which deal direct or indirectly with this problematic usually consider that unemployed people can be enterprising agents or are excluded from labor relations. We intended to address this theme overcoming these dual approaches. We defend the thesis that unemployed people are part of a population extract known as reserve army (RA) which can have, in the current stage of production forces, a double role, namely: regulator of the labor force price and oppositional agent of the capital’s social metabolism. Based, mainly, on the studies of Marx, Oliveira and Iasi, we analyze the labor market as it is represented by national and international research institutions and through collected data among the members of a social movement formed of unemployed people, the Unemployed Workers Movement (MTD). The dialectical method allowed us to reconstitute the movement of multiple determinants that synthesized the possibility of qualitative changes in part of the mentioned contingent. We have concluded that the RA performs an economic and ideological structural function of regulating the labor force price basically due to two factors: 1) as a fluent super population, it is a reserve of labor force, which depresses the price of this merchandise to levels increasingly inferiors; 2) as a labor force not directly used by the capitalist in the production process, the members of the RA, on their expression as a stagnant super population, tend to make works, whether in the so called informal economy, whether in the domestic economy or even in the underground economy, that satisfy needs of both the active army (AA) and the reserve army on its fluent manifestation. When offering products and services with low cost to the AA and even for the reserve army, the stagnant super population contributes to depreciate the value of the labor force merchandise, taking into consideration that according to the value law, this must be equivalent to the value of the products needed for its reproduction. The reserve army can play the role of oppositional subject whereas the concrete conditions of its pauperism tension the movement of formation and the construction of struggle organizational forms, enabling the constitution of a class consciousness process mediated by moments of denial and consent to the capital‟s social metabolism. We defend, therefore, that in the current capitalist way of production in peripheral countries a qualitative change gradually occurs in class consciousness of this portion of class-of-labor that shows, especially after the advent of productive restructuring, an increasing tendency of continuous replacement, that is, quantitative change which have been possible, among other factors, by the development of the administrative knowledge.