Cette thèse étudie les déterminants de l’efficacité de la politique budgétaire, et en analyse les modalités de mise en oeuvre. Le premier chapitre compare la valeur du multiplicateur budgétaire dans les économies émergentes (EMEs)et dans les avancées (AEs). Le multiplicateur est plus faible dans les EMEs que dans les AEs, et si les déterminants du multiplicateur y sont similaires, leur impact et leur hiérarchisation y sont différents. Dans les EMEs, l’amélioration de l’efficacité de la politique budgétaire semble devoir passer par des changements structurels relatifs aux institutions.D’après le chapitre 2, le multiplicateur décroit avec la part de la dette des firmes libellée en monnaie étrangère qui se trouve être particulièrement élevée dans les EMEs. Des mesures limitant les prêts en monnaie étrangère et favorisant le développement du système financier local devraient permettre de recouvrer l’efficacité de la politique budgétaire. Le troisième chapitre montre que les gouvernements européens interagissent entre eux pour fixer leurs politiques budgétaires: ils s’imitent avec un an de délai. Ces interactions sont dues à de la concurrence par comparaison. L’objectif électoral des politiques budgétaires peut en réduire l’efficacité. Aussi, davantage d’institutions seraient nécessaires pour garantir une certaine coordination budgétaire en Europe. Les interactions décalées dans le temps témoignent d’un phénomène de leader-suiveur en Europe, et le chapitre 4 montre que l’Allemagne occupe la place de leader. L’Allemagne pourrait donc amorcer une certaine coordination budgétaire en Europe. / This thesis analyzes the determinants of fiscal policy efficiency and the way fiscal policy is implemented. The first chapter compares the fiscal multiplier in emerging market economies (EMEs) with the one in advanced economies(AEs): the fiscal multiplier is smaller in EMEs than in AEs. While the determinants of fiscal multipliers are similar in both groups, their weights differ across groups. To improve fiscal policy efficiency EMEs seem to need structural policies to better their institutional quality. Chapter 2 empirically and theoretically shows that the fiscal multiplier decreases with the share of firms’ indebtedness that is denominated in foreign currency. EMEs have large debt denominated in foreign currency. Fostering the use of local currency to finance activity, for example via quotas on foreign loans, shall allow EMEs to improve the efficiency of their fiscal policies. Chapter 3 shows that European governments mimic each other in the implementation of fiscal policy with one year delay. These interactions are due to yardstick competition.The electoral objectives of governments may reduce fiscal policy efficiency and the incentive of governments to fiscally cooperate. If we believe in fiscal cooperation as a force to enhance fiscal policy efficiency, more institutions should be set up to foster cooperation in Europe. Moreover, the delayed interactions found are consistent with a leader-follower process, and Chapter 4 shows that Germany is the leader: European countries follow Germany in the implementation of fiscal policy. Hence, the push for fiscal cooperation could come from Germany.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-23T14:00:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao de Andre Luiz Greve Pereira - Parte 1.pdf: 1996445 bytes, checksum: 416870e5be10ab8287e896d17657fdcb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-06-04 / Esta dissertação investiga os determinantes da criminalidade nos municípios do Estado do Espírito Santo e nos bairros de Vitória. Este trabalho se insere na literatura econômica que busca identificar o impacto marginal de variáveis econômicas, sociais e demográficas assim como o impacto marginal de crimes aparentemente sem vítimas (crimes de drogas e armas) em crimes com vítimas claramente identificáveis (homicídios, crimes contra a pessoa e crimes contra o patrimônio). A dissertação utilizou as ocorrências criminais registradas na Secretaria de Segurança Pública e Defesas Social do Espírito Santo (SESP), entre elas o local de residência dos Envolvidos com a Criminalidade em nível de bairro. Esta variável é inédita em estudos econômicos no Brasil. Os resultados do trabalho ressaltam a importância do efeito transbordamento (spillover effects) da criminalidade sob dois canais: através da influência dos crimes aparentemente sem vítimas (drogas e armas) nos crimes patrimoniais e pessoais, pois eles tiveram um poder explicativo significativamente maior do que as variáveis sociais, econômicas e demográficas; e através da autocorrelação espacial positiva dos crimes entre os municípios do ES. As políticas públicas de segurança são discutidas e analisadas apartir destes resultados e das referências consultadas / This dissertation investigates the determinants of crime in cities in the state of Espírito Santo and in the districts of its capital, Vitória. This study is based in the economic literature that seeks to identify the marginal impact of economic, social and demographic variables, as well as the marginal impact of apparently victimless crimes (drugs and guns crimes) on crimes with identifiable victims (homicide, offence against the person and crimes against property). The data used in this paper were criminal occurrences recorded by the Espírito Santo Department of Public Safety and Social Defense (SESP-ES), including criminals residences sorted at neighborhood level. This variable has no precedents in Brazilian economic studies. The results of the study emphasize the importance of the spillover effect in crime through two different channels: the influence of apparently victimless crimes in crimes against property and offences against the person, which had a greater explanatory power than social, economic and demographic variables; and a positive spatial correlation of crimes between cities. The public security policies are discussed and analyzed based on these results and the references consulted

This thesis consists of three papers on econometric modeling of spatial dependence. The awareness of interactions between actors is fundamental for understanding property markets as well as the growth of regions. In both cases, neighbors and neighboring markets may stimulate or hamper growth of values. From a modeling point of view, these interdependencies calls for spatial econometric models. In the thesis we introduce such methods in the analysis of regional property markets as well as in a comparative regional growth analysis. In the first paper, we estimate hedonic prices in the market for co-operative flats in the city of Umeå, Sweden, during 1998 and 1999. Structural, neighborhood, and accessibility characteristics are used as attributes in the hedonic price function. Important attributes were the rent, floor space, age, and population density. Two attractive nodes, although with different characteristics, were found. Thus there are signs supporting the view that Umeå has developed into a multi-nodal structure for property values. SAR-GM estimation was used due to signs of spatial error dependence. In the second paper, hedonic prices for single-family homes in two Swedish counties are estimated for two years. Parameter estimates are compared and changes in space and time analyzed. Spatial lag dependence is found to influence the results. Hence, four independent variables are lagged with a spatial weights matrix. Additional spatial error dependence is treated by SAR-GM estimation. Structural, neighborhood, and accessibility characteristics are used as attributes. The regional price pattern and its changes over time, is illustrated and identified with GIS maps. Proximity to the two county capitals, as well as the other municipality centers, influence property prices positively. This is also noticable over time, where values have risen for homes located near major population centers and those which have water provided by the municipality. Values are in addition largely a function of the quality of each home. The third paper examines the provincial pattern of growth in China during the period 1985-2000, testing the hypothesis that provinces with similar growth rates are more spatially clustered than would be expected by chance. The provincial economic growth is explained by the distribution of industrial enterprises, foreign direct investment, infrastructure, and governmental preferential policies. The neoclassical hypothesis of convergence is also tested. Indications of unconditional convergence does occur during the periods 1985-2000 and 1985-1990. In addition, conditional convergence is found during the sub-period 1990-1995. Evidence of spatial dependence between adjacent provinces has also been established, and in the econometric part, solved by a spatial lag, or alternatively a spatial error term, in the growth equation.

In this paper, we test one of the fundamental assumptions in the tax competition literature, namely, that a country's taxable income depends on the tax policies pursued in the domestic and in neighbouring countries. Based on a panel of annual data of 14 western European countries spanning the period 1982 to 2004, we show that the common trend in falling corporate income tax (CIT) rates can in part be explained by the existence of fiscal externalities in the form of international resource flows. Our results confirm the presumption put forward in recent empirical tax reaction function studies, that interdependent tax setting behaviour is evidence of tax competition. However, taxable corporate income is shown to react inelastically to domestic and to foreign tax rates. Thus, the observed rise in CIT revenues in Europe between 1982 and 2004 cannot be explained by the trend in falling CIT rates. Moreover, we find that large countries' tax bases are more responsive to neighbouring countries' tax policies, which is in contrast to the classic asymmetric tax competition literature. (author´s abstract) / Series: Discussion Papers SFB International Tax Coordination

In this paper, we test one of the fundamental assumptions in the tax competition literature, namely, that a country's taxable income depends on the tax policies pursued in the domestic and in neighbouring countries. Based on a panel of annual data of 14 western European countries spanning the period 1982 to 2004, we show that the common trend in falling corporate income tax (CIT) rates can in part be explained by the existence of fiscal externalities in the form of international resource flows. Our results confirm the presumption put forward in recent empirical tax reaction function studies, that interdependent tax setting behaviour is evidence of tax competition. However, taxable corporate income is shown to react inelastically to domestic and to foreign tax rates. Thus, the observed rise in CIT revenues in Europe between 1982 and 2004 cannot be explained by the trend in falling CIT rates. Moreover, we find that large countries' tax bases are more responsive to neighbouring countries' tax policies, which is in contrast to the classic asymmetric tax competition literature. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

A bulk of empirical literature has emerged that explores the role of various location factors as determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). A notable feature of these studies is that their empirical approaches abstract from third-country (spatial) effects in FDI across the home and host country dimensions. Neglecting these effects could bias results concerning the role of location factors for attracting FDI. This in turn may lead to misguided economic policy conclusions. The current paper adds to the literature by applying the recently proposed spatial "origin-destinationow model" of LeSage and Pace (2008) to FDI ows from 7 Western OECD home countries to 8 CEE host countries. Controlling for country-pair and time effects our results indicate that (a) spatial interactions across the host country dimension matter for FDI revealing that vertical complex FDI ows dominate total FDI ows to CEECs; (b) spatial autocorrelation in the home country dimension is absent; (c) results of previous studies remain valid as coefficient estimates on location factors change only slightly when spatial interdependencies are considered and (d) effective corporate income taxes and the endowment with production-related material infrastruc- ture are statistically and economically signifficant determinants of FDI in CEECs. (author's abstract) / Series: Discussion Papers SFB International Tax Coordination

Ampia discussione è in corso riguardo ai Fondi Strutturali Europei, uno strumento creato dall’Unione Europea per ridurre le differenze economiche tra le sue regioni. Durante il CSF 2000-06 essi hanno rappresentato 1/3 del budget comunitario. Nonostante tale sforzo, parte della letteratura trova scarsi effetti e persistenza nei differenziali di PIL che i fondi dovrebbero ridurre. In questo lavoro si affronterà la questione osservando le regioni dell’EU-15, nel periodo 2000-07. L’effetto dei fondi è stato dapprima stimato con modelli di convergenza assoluta e considerando problemi come l’autocorrelazione spaziale e l’eterogeneità delle regioni. L’attenzione si è quindi diretta alla costruzione di un dataset contenente cifre dettagliate dei fondi pagati annualmente a ciascuna regione, tramite combinazione di informazioni da fonti ufficiali e tramite stime per coprire le cifre per cui tali informazioni erano mancanti. Con questo dataset sono quindi stati stimati modelli che considerassero effetti di spill-over e la possibilità di cluster convergence. È risultato che i fondi strutturali hanno effetti tutto sommato positivi. L’utilizzo di modelli più complessi e realistici ha però mostrato una debole convergenza, lasciando quindi dubbi sull’effettiva efficacia dei fondi. / A vast discussion is underway regarding European structural funds, an instrument the European Union created in order to reduce the economic differentials among its regions. During the 2000-2006 CSF they represented 1/ 3 of EU budget. Despite these efforts, part of the literature finds small effects and persistence in those differences in GDP which these funds should reduce. In this work the issue will be addressed by looking at regions within EU-15, in the period 2000-2007. Proof of the positive effect of funds was first searched using models of absolute beta convergence and addressing issues like spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity between regions. The attention moved then to the task of constructing a dataset which could provide detailed figures on funding paid to each region each year, by combining information available from official sources and through the estimation of those figures for which information was missing. On the base of this dataset new models were estimated, taking into account the spill-over effects and the possibility of cluster convergence. The result was that structural funds have, overall, a positive impact. Once we move to more complex and realistic models, convergence becomes weaker, casting some doubts on the effectiveness of these funds.

Empirical trade economists have found that shocks on foreign direct investment (FDI) of some parent country in a host country affect the same parent country´s FDI in other hosts (interdependent hosts). Independent of this, there is evidence that shocks on a parent country´s FDI in some host economy affect other parent countries´ FDI in the same host (interdependent parents). In general equilibrium, shocks on FDI between any country pair will affect all country-pairs´ FDI in the world, including anyone of the two countries in a pair as well as third countries (interdependent third countries). No attempt has been made so far to allow simultaneously for all three modes of interdependence of FDI. Using cross-sectional data on FDI among 22 OECD countries in 2000, we employ a spatial feasible generalized two-stage least squares and generalized moments estimation framework to allow for all three modes of interdependence across all parent and host countries, thereby distinguishing between market-size-related and remainder interdependence. Our results highlight the complexity of multinational enterprises´ investment strategies and the interconnectedness of the world investment system (authors' abstract). / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

大眾捷運系統帶來之快捷與便利，使其成為許多都會區民眾依賴之交通工具。捷運系統對鄰近不動產交通可及性提升，所伴隨之便利性將透過資本化效果反映於其價格之上，帶動周邊不動產價格上漲，過去不論國內外關於捷運對周邊房價影響之研究，實證結果亦多支持捷運對於房價有正面影響，且該影響隨著與捷運車站距離增加而遞減。捷運房價效果的區位差異與類型差異過去雖已有研究論及，但對捷運房價效果差異與其變化趨勢未能有明確細緻描述。此外，該等研究均忽略空間相關因素，將影響其估計結果。 　　本文使用國內某金融機構2007、2008年間台北都會區內台北捷運初期路網沿線車站周邊住宅為實證對象，應用空間迴歸模型檢視捷運系統對鄰近住宅價格之影響效果。實證結果顯示，就整體樣本而言捷運對房價確有正向影響但並不如想像之大，且該影響隨區位與類型之不同確有差異。 / Many previous studies have showed that metro system has a positive impact on the property values due to its accessibility benefits and the effect should decline as distance increases. While the pattern of the change and its difference between stations located in different locations has yet not been fully discussed, most of the studies failed to allow for spatial autocorrelation over space. This research uses spatial econometrics to estimate a residential housing model that considers spatial autocorrelation. The empirical results show the difference in the price effect of metro stations between urban and suburban areas does exist. The effect tends to get stronger in certain area, the closer the property lies within to the suburban area the greater the effect is. Also, we find price gaps between different metro station categories. Generally, underground stations and transfer stations have greater positive effect on residential property values.

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No. of bitstreams: 1 William Munhoz Projeto Final com Ficha Corrigido.pdf: 4473478 bytes, checksum: 7b1478eb7af3bddfea86fdecc4ffa256 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-01 / No início dos anos 2000 diversas usinas de cana-de-açúcar foram instaladas no estado do Mato Grosso do Sul, principalmente na região da Grande Dourados no sul do estado. Na maior parte dos casos elas foram instaladas em pequenos municípios, cujo investimentos impactaram a dinâmica e a economia local. Por outro lado, não somente o município onde usinas foram instaladas sofreram impactos, mas sim todos que estavam diretamente ou indiretamente ligados a eles e a essa indústria que crescia vertiginosamente. O presente estudo buscou compreender a relação espacial entre os municípios na evolução de indicadores econômicos a partir da renda gerada pela produção de canade-açúcar. Para tal, foram construídos modelos de econometria espacial, a partir da metodologia Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) com dois conceitos de vizinhança distintos, um levando em conta os limites físicos políticos fronteiriços e o outro, a relação hierárquica entre os municípios da região sugerida pelo IBGE. Também, buscou-se compreender o impacto que o principal município da região, Dourados, tem nessa relação adicionando e retirando seus dados no cálculo das regressões. Verificou-se que o conceito de vizinhança dado pela hierarquia dos municípios captura a relação entre atividade econômica regional e produção de cana-de-açúcar municipal, enquanto o conceito dado pela fronteira física não permite encontrar tal relação. Por outro lado, a produção municipal possui pouca relação com a economia do próprio município onde se localiza. Também se verificou que o principal município da região é fundamental para captar a correlação entre a renda gerada pela produção de cana-de-açúcar municipal e indicadores econômicos dos municípios da região. Observou-se que cada município influencia e é influenciado pelos demais dentro de uma rede hierárquica com papeis e importância bem definidas, sendo que a distância física entre as unidades espaciais pouco ou nada importa no contexto regional para que os reflexos possam ser captados. Dessa forma, os resultados sugerem que a instalação da indústria sucroalcooleira em um município em particular gera spillovers para além do município onde se instala, e, portanto, políticas públicas de crescimento e desenvolvimento local associadas ao agronegócio sucroalcooleiro devem ser pensadas a nível regional, e não simplesmente municipal. Por fim, recomenda-se que novos estudos busquem mensurar o real tamanho dos impactos diretos e indiretos na economia ocasionada pela renda gerada pela produção de cana-de-açúcar como também se recomenda testes com defasagem de um ano da variável independente para observar possíveis mudanças nos resultados observados nesse estudo. / At the beginning of the years 2000th, several sugar cane mills have been installed in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul in Brazil, mostly in the region of Dourados city, in the south of the State. In most cases these mills have been installed in small cities, where the investments have played big role to impact local economy and dynamic. In the other hand, not only the city where investments have been driven to felt these impacts, but also all the other cities where they have been connected directly or indirectly within this rapid growing sugar cane industry. This study have tried to understand the spatial relation within the cities and the evolution of their economic performance indicator related to the sugar cane production income. Therefore, two spatial econometrics models have been written off following the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) methodology. It was used two different neighbourhood concept, one has taken into account geographical and political borders whereas the other has taken into account the city’s hierarchy among them suggested by Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). It was also part of this study do understand the meaning of the main and more important city in the whole region, Dourados, once the city’s data is added or withdrew in the regression analysis. It was verified that the neighbourhood concept given by cities’ hierarchy captures the relationship between regional economic activities and sugar cane production within the city, whereas the concept given by geography and political border have failed to find it. Not only that, but it was also verified that the inner county sugar cane production has not much to do with its own economy. It was also possible to verify that the main city in the region is essential to capture correlation between sugar cane production income and regional economic indicators in the cities. It was observed that each city influences and is influenced by the others following an hierarchy network where they play a well determined role and significance, and physical distance between spatial unities little or close to nothing have to do in the regional context to capture this correlation. For that reason, the results suggest that the investments from sugarcane industry in a county creates economic spillover beyond its border where it has been installed, and therefore, public policies to develop and growth associated with agribusiness shall be thought and created in a regional scale rather than local. Lastly, it is recommended new studies to measure the real size of economic direct and indirect impacts generated by sugar cane production income, as well it is recommended new tests with one-year lag of the independent variable seeking possible changes in observed results.