La production de bois intègre notamment des enjeux économiques, climatiques et énergétiques. En France, selon les données de l'Institut National de l'Information Géographique et Forestière, l'accroissement biologique de la forêt est largement supérieur aux prélèvements de bois. C'est pourquoi l'État français a fixé l'objectif de prélever 21 millions de m3 supplémentaires de bois d'ici 2020 (Grenelle de l'environnement, 2007). Cependant, la forêt française appartient majoritairement à des propriétaires forestiers privés qui ont des préférences à la fois pour le revenu issu de la vente de bois et pour les aménités non-bois. Les politiques visant à accroître la production de bois doivent donc intégrer ces aspects. L'objectif de ce travail de thèse est de comprendre les déterminants de la production jointe de bois et d'aménités non-bois en France. Pour ce faire, nous nous sommes d'abord intéressés aux déterminants individuels et régionaux de l'offre de bois. Nous montrons que le comportement d'offre de bois d'un propriétaire peut varier en fonction du comportement de production de bois constaté chez ses pairs (effets sociaux). Ensuite, nous mettons en évidence un comportement de mimétisme dans les décisions de production jointe de bois et d'aménités des propriétaires forestiers privés. Enfin, nous analysons les arbitrages inter-temporels réalisés par les propriétaires entre aménités non-bois et revenu de la vente de bois en prenant en compte explicitement les anticipations de prix et de croissance. Nous évaluons à 23e par an la valeur que les propriétaires de notre échantillon accordent à 1m3/ha de bois supplémentaire laissé sur pied par rapport au niveau de stock des propriétaires industriels afin d'avoir des aménités plus importantes.Un des enjeux de ce travail est d?offrir des pistes pour mobiliser la ressource forestière ne faisant pas l'objet d'une offre, faute d'implication des propriétaires privés, soit par manque de connaissance ou d'intérêt pour leur forêt, soit parce que d'autres aspects sont privilégiés (services d'aménités non-bois par exemple). Dans cette thèse, nous montrons que les effets de mimétisme et d'entrainement social (effets sociaux) peuvent être utilisés pour amener les propriétaires forestiers à produire plus de bois. Nous montrons également, qu'une hausse du prix du bois ou la mise en place d'une taxepeut favoriser la prise de la décision de coupe de bois et augmenter l'intensité de la récolte. / Timber production is related to economic, climate and energy issues. In France,according to data from the National Institute of Geoinformation and Forestry, thebiological growth rate of the forest is greater than the timber harvest rate. Thus, theFrench government has set a target of harvesting an additional quantity of 21 millioncubic meter of timber by 2020 ("Grenelle de l'environnement, 2007"). However, theFrench forest is majority owned by private forest owners who have preferences forboth income from timber trade and from non-timber amenities. The policies toincrease timber production must include these aspects. The objective of this thesisis to understand the determinants of joint production of timber and non-timberamenities in France.Therefore, we first analyze private forest owners' timber supply, taking into accountindividual and regional determinants. Afterwards, we investigate whether thedrivers of forest owners behavior differ within and between these different levels.We show that similar timber supply behavior can be observed when regional characteristicsor those of peers are similar. Then, we highlight a mimicry behavior injoint production decisions of timber and amenities made by private forest owners.Finally, we analyze inter-temporal trade-offs made by the owners from non-timberamenities and income from the sale of wood. We explicitly take into account theprice expectations and growth. Our estimations show that the willingness to pay fornon-timber amenities is e23 for our case study. This value is the difference betweenthe value they could have earned if they tried to maximize timber revenue and therevenue of their actual logging.Mainly beacause of a lack of involvement of private owners, either through a lackof knowledge or interest in their forest, or because other aspects are privileged (nontimberamenities, e.g.), a part of forest ressource is not subject to a commercial offer.Providing ways to mobilize this ressource is one of the challenges of this work. Weshow that the mimetic effects and the contextual effects can be used to encourageforest owners to produce more timber. An effective policy could be a combinationof these two effects. We also show that an increase in the price of timber or theadoption of a tax may be an incentive for timber harvesting.

Cette thèse examine les principaux déterminants des stratégies de subsistance des ménages ruraux. Elle cherche à comprendre comment ces stratégies impactent la déforestation à petite échelle et la conservation de la biodiversité suivant une approche paysagère. A partir d’une base de données unique obtenue grâce à une enquête en face-à-face auprès d’un échantillon représentatif de 1035 ménages dans le paysage transfrontalier de conservation du Trinational Dja-Odzala-Minkébé (Tridom-TCL)-Bassin du Congo, cette thèse vise à répondre à trois questions et s’organise en trois chapitres. Le premier chapitre analyse "comment les ménages autochtones et locaux formulent leurs préférences parmi les stratégies et moyens d’existence” à l’aide d’un model Probit autorégressif spatial. Le deuxième chapitre examine "comment et à quelle amplitude ces stratégies impactent la déforestation à petite échelle" à l’aide d’un modèle de décalage spatial. Compte tenu de la nature des interactions entre les ménages et de la faune, de leurs principales activités, le troisième chapitre examine "les préférences des ménages pour la conservation des éléphants de forêt” à l’aide des modèles à variable qualitatives limitées.Les actifs financiers (transfert d’argent et emprunts), la distance au marché, les dommages résultant des conflits homme-éléphant et l’ethnicité, plus précisément, l’autochtonie comptent parmi les facteurs déterminants des choix de stratégies de subsistance des ménages ruraux dans le Tridom-TCL. Nous montrons en outre que l’intensité de déforestation des ménages varie significativement en fonction de ces stratégies de subsistance. Par conséquent, les engagements en faveur de la réduction de la déforestation peuvent être favorisés par une bonne prise en compte des facteurs qui gouvernent les choix des modes de subsistance opérés par les ménages. Ils peuvent également être favorisés par la prise en compte les interactions entre ménages ainsi que leur localisation dans le paysage. En effet, nous trouvons qu’il existe des effets d’imitation, dans la décision de déforestation, entre les ménages d’un même voisinage, avec des effets spatiaux indirects susceptibles d’amplifier la déforestation à petite échelle.Les solutions transversales, aux trois questions abordées dans cette thèse, en faveur d’un paysage durable devraient viser l’optimisation des compromis entre les stratégies de subsistance des ménages, les forêts et/ou les habitats naturels de la faune. Les décideurs devraient, par exemple, procéder à l’intégration des corridors de mobilité de grands mammifères dont les éléphants de forêt, dans des zones à forte concentration de la faune et loin des espaces communautaires afin de réduire le risque de conflits hommes-faune. / This thesis investigates the key drivers of rural households’ choices of livelihoods, and how these choices impact forest clearing and biodiversity conservation under a landscape approach. Using a novel and unique database obtained from a face-to-face survey with a representative sample of 1035 households in the Dja-Odzala-Minkébé trinational transboundary conservation landscape (Tridom-TCL)- Congo basin , this PhD thesis address three main questions investigated in three chapters. Using a spatial probit model, the first chapter investigates “how do local and indigenous households formulate their preferences among livelihoods strategies?” Using a spatial lag model, the second chapter investigates “how and how much do these livelihoods strategies, given wildlife constrains such as human-wildlife conflicts, impact smallscale deforestation?” Using corner solution models, the third chapter investigates "how the nature of the interactions among households and wildlife, the households’ main activities as well as their land holdings impact their willingness to pay to prevent endangered forest elephant extinction?”Among other, we find that livelihoods strategies are determined by autochthonous status, financial assets (money transfer and access to loan), distance to market and larger crop losses resulting from human-wildlife conflicts. Further, we show that livelihoods strategies are important for deforestation. Therefore, the commitments to reducing small-scale deforestation may be favored by a good consideration of factors that drive households’ livelihoods strategies. We find out that spatial issues seem to be important. Proximity among households yields spatial shift effects and spatial spillover effects that are likely to amplify small-scale deforestation. We also argue that, cross-cutting solutions towards a sustainable landscape considering these three crucial issues involve optimizing trade-off between households’ livelihoods strategies, forest and the natural habitats of fauna. Therefore, the issues of community land security, of where natural habitat is needed and of how it should be managed are at the core of the problem. For example, decision-makers should proceed with the integration of large mammals mobility corridors far away from the community settlements in order to enhance zero-conflict-oriented elephant habitats; corridors should be consistently placed relatively to high elephant-concentration zones without crossing into zones with denser human populations.

Doctor of Philosophy / Environmental Design and Planning / Huston Gibson / Lee R. Skabelund / Urban agriculture and urban food-systems are locally productive landscapes and their supporting programs and networks. Urban agriculture is now valued and actively promoted by many urban communities. Having numerous community benefits, UA is often considered to have desirable neighborhood amenities and is assumed to have effects on nearby property prices. However, very little is known about the primary or secondary economic contribution of these productive landscapes to urban environments, particularly in regards to how urban agriculture relates to property values in a neighborhood. Because urban agriculture sites are often overpowered by increasing exchange-values of surrounding properties, the original values (economic and non-economic) to the neighborhood or community may be lost as urban agricultural sites are transformed by “higher return” development schemes. Since urban agriculture can disappear or fail without effective financing and adequate policy and planning support, it is imperative to the longevity of such programs to understand how important land-use and economic variables interrelate. This study examines the spatial-temporal magnitude and economic relationship between urban agriculture parcels and property values. The study uses the hedonic method employing the Spatial-Durbin modeling approach. Findings expand the theoretical and policy discourse on how investment of public resources aids neighborhood development through low exchange-value programs such as urban agriculture. In understanding the advantages of local food systems to urban form, context-specific neighborhood strategies developed in tandem with targeted community development and comprehensive plans can improve urban revitalization and (re)development within a larger resilient city planning framework. The key findings from the study illustrate that there is great value in understanding the most appropriate design approach and features of urban agriculture for different neighborhoods and market groups. Important design considerations include scale, design aesthetic, abundance and quality of urban agriculture sites within different market groups and neighborhoods.

This thesis analyses what drives sovereign credit risk when contagion is con- trolled for. CDS spreads are used as a measure of credit risk and bond yields are used to estimate interconnectedness of the examined countries. The main contribution lies in the use of high-frequency data and a robust wavelet based estimator in addition to spatial econometric model. The aim of this thesis is to test for presence of contagion and to evaluate which fundamentals are decisive for market perception of sovereign credit risk. Another goal is to evaluate the possibility of a structural break caused by the Greek debt restructuring. The results show that the restructuring did bring change. Contagion is present during the post-crisis period and it diminishes as the economies recover. Sim- ilarly, fundamentals are of higher importance in the post-crisis period when compared with the following period. JEL Classification C22, C31, C33, G01, G32, G33 Keywords spatial econometrics, CDS spreads, sovereign credit risk, financial contagion, realised covari- ance Author's e-mail josef.zahlava@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail petr.gapko@seznam.cz

Submitted by Liliane Ferreira (ljuvencia30@gmail.com) on 2018-07-20T11:48:13Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Marcos Eduardo de Souza Lauro - 2018.pdf: 2144486 bytes, checksum: e3297466fed7157ebeb44ccefd128da8 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2018-07-23T12:04:22Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Marcos Eduardo de Souza Lauro - 2018.pdf: 2144486 bytes, checksum: e3297466fed7157ebeb44ccefd128da8 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-07-23T12:04:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Marcos Eduardo de Souza Lauro - 2018.pdf: 2144486 bytes, checksum: e3297466fed7157ebeb44ccefd128da8 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-07-13 / The present dissertation aims to evaluate the quality of the service provided by Celg Distribuição, through its continuity indicators, in order to propose improvement actions for the company. The collective indicators of duration and the equivalent frequency of interruptions (DEC and FEC), using a database formed from more than 200 data sets, are evaluated through unpublished methodologies for the theme, spatial analysis and decomposition of Oaxaca, with 200 million of observations related to all interruptions between 2014 and 2016 in the concession area of ​​the distributor. The main results indicate that there is a structural problem with the extrapolation of the regulatory limits of the distributor's indicators, placing it as the worst distributor in Brazil in recent years, a problem that was accentuated by the transfer of control of the State of Goiás to the Union in 2011. This problem presents a heterogeneous problem along the 200,000 km² area of ​​the concession area, whose problem is concentrated in the interior regions of the State of Goiás. In addition, there are significant differences regarding the the Metropolitan Region of Goiânia (REMG) and the interior of the State regarding the durations of the power outages. With the research, four actions are proposed for the company, being they to apply actions of the best electrical assemblies to those where the situation is more critical; to request the regulatory body to redefine regulatory limits; identify the primary cause of the outage; define a specific maintenance policy for the interior of the state of Goiás, a region whose continuity problem is more pronounced than in Goiânia. / A presente dissertação tem o objetivo de avaliar a qualidade do serviço prestado pela Celg Distribuição, por meio de seus indicadores de continuidade, a fim de propor ações de melhoria para a empresa. Avalia-se, por meio de metodologias inéditas para o tema, análise espacial e decomposição de Oaxaca, os indicadores coletivos de duração e frequência equivalente das interrupções (DEC e FEC), por meio de uma base de dados formada a partir de mais de 200 milhões de observações, relativas à todas as interrupções ocorridas entre 2014 e 2016 na área de concessão da distribuidora. Os principais resultados apontam que há um problema estrutural com a extrapolação dos limites regulatórios dos indicadores da distribuidora, colocando-a como pior distribuidora do Brasil nos últimos anos, problema que foi acentuado a partir da transferência de controle acionário do Estado de Goiás para a União, em 2011. Este problema apresenta-se de forma heterogênea ao longo dos cerca de 200 mil km² da área de concessão, cujo problema se concentra nas regiões do interior do Estado de Goiás. Além disso, verifica-se diferenças relevantes no que tange a região metropolitana de Goiânia (REMG) e o interior do Estado quanto às durações das quedas de energia. Com a pesquisa, quatro ações são propostas para a empresa, sendo elas a de aplicar ações dos melhores conjuntos elétricos àqueles onde a situação é mais crítica; pleitear junto ao órgão regulador a redefinição dos limites regulatórios; identificar a causa primária da interrupção e; definir uma política de manutenção específica para o interior do estado de Goiás, região cujo problema da continuidade é mais acentuado que na Grande Goiânia.

Neste trabalho será feito um modelo espaço-temporal contínuo para preços de imóveis na cidade de São Paulo estimado através de métodos Bayesianos. Faremos uma decomposição da série em tendência e ciclo além de incorporar um conjunto de variáveis explicativas e efeitos aleatórios espaciais projetados no contínuo. Este modelo introduz um novo método para analisar a formação dos preços dos lançamentos imobiliários. Consideramos em nosso modelo hedônico, além das características intrínsecas, também as características da vizinhança e o ambiente econômico. Com este modelo, conseguimos observar os preços de equilíbrio para as respectivas localizações e uma interpretação mais clara da dinâmica de preços dos imóveis entre janeiro de 2000 e dezembro de 2013 para a cidade de São Paulo. / In this work will be made a continuous spatial-temporal model for real estate prices in the city of São Paulo estimated using Bayesian methods. We will decompose the series into a trend and cycle, and incorporate a set of explanatory variables and random spatial effects projected into the continuum. This model introduces a new method to analyze the price formation of real estate launches. We consider in our hedonic model, besides the intrinsic characteristics, also the characteristics of the neighborhood and the economic environment. With this model, we were able to observe the equilibrium prices for the respective locations and a clearer interpretation of the dynamics of real estate prices between January 2000 and December 2013 for the city of São Paulo.

Este trabalho investiga o efeito do saneamento sobre educação, ou seja, as consequências educacionais das crianças que apresentam estado de saúde debilitado por terem contraído Doenças Relacionadas ao Saneamento Ambiental Inadequado (DRSAI). Nesse sentido, condições de infraestrutura dos domicílios, expressas pela variável de acesso a saneamento básico, por impactar a saúde dos indivíduos, é mais um dos determinantes dos indicadores educacionais. A partir de dados municipais e distritais, o efeito do saneamento sobre educação foi obtido em duas etapas. Na primeira, utilizou-se dados por município do Censo Demográfico (IBGE), Censo Escolar (INEP), Sistema Nacional de Informações Sobre Saneamento (SNIS), entre outros, para anos 2000 e 2010, com o objetivo de avaliar o efeito do saneamento sobre educação. Na segunda etapa, verificou-se a hipótese que dá suporte ao efeito da etapa anterior: o efeito do saneamento sobre a saúde. Essa investigação foi realizada por meio de dados por distrito construídos a partir do Censo Demográfico do Universo por setor censitário (IBGE), Cadastro Nacional de Endereços para Fins Estatísticos (CNEFE, 2011), Diretório Nacional de Endereços (DNE, 2015) e Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde (DATASUS, 2010). Ambas etapas fizeram uso de econometria espacial e não-espacial para estimação dos dois efeitos. Os resultados da primeira etapa indicam que o efeito do aumento de uma unidade percentual no acesso a saneamento está associado a um aumento de 0,11 pontos percentuais na taxa de frequência escolar, a uma queda de 0,31 pontos percentuais na taxa de distorção idade-série e a também uma queda de 0,12 pontos percentuais na taxa de abandono escolar. Os resultados da segunda etapa indicam que, em geral, o acesso aos serviços de saneamento inadequados causa impacto positivo na taxa de incidência de internações por DRSAI (por mil habitantes), a variável de saúde considerada nesse estudo. Para a população de todas as idades, o impacto total médio do aumento de 1% na parcela de domicílios servidos por água da chuva armazenada em cisterna ou caixa de cimento é 0,217 casos por mil habitantes. Quando se considera a porcentagem dos domicílios que tem banheiro conectado a uma fossa rudimentar, esse impacto é 0,035 casos por 1000 habitantes. Por outro lado, no que diz respeito à variável adequada de saneamento, o impacto total médio de 1% na porcentagem de domicílios particulares permanentes conectados à rede de distribuição de água e que, além disso, na quadra onde estão localizados é inexistente condições de esgoto a céu aberto é -0,166 casos por mil habitantes. A variável de maior impacto total médio refere-se à porcentagem de domicílios que não tem banheiro e, além disso, possuem presença de esgoto a céu aberto em suas condições de entorno. O aumento em uma unidade percentual nessa variável gera aumento de 3,281 na taxa de incidência de internações por DRSAI. Outro resultado desse estudo é que a população mais jovem é a mais atingida pelo acesso a condições inadequadas dos serviços de saneamento básico tanto em relação à saúde quanto à educação. Por fim, a recomendação de política pública apontou que, se fossem implementadas políticas de mitigação das condições inapropriadas de saneamento, iniciando por diminuir em um por cento a porcentagem de domicílios que não têm banheiro e estão expostos a condições de esgoto a céu aberto o setor público da saúde economizaria recursos num valor correspondente a 4,4% do gasto federal total investido por ano em saneamento. Dessa forma, essa política pode ser uma estratégia para acelerar as metas de universalização do acesso aos serviços de saneamento básico no Brasil. / This dissertation studies the effect of sanitation on education, in other words, the educational consequences for children whose health has been affected by Diseases Related to Inadequate Environmental Sanitation (DRIES). In this sense, infrastructure conditions of dwellings, expressed by the variable of access to basic sanitation, for impacting the health of individuals, is one of the determinants of educational indicators. The effect of sanitation on education was obtained in two steps, from municipality and district level data. At the first step, we applied data at municipality level, from the Population Census (IBGE), the School Census (INEP), the National Information System on Sanitation (SNIS), among others, for the years 2000 and 2010, with the goal of evaluating the effect of sanitation on education. At the second step, we analyzed the hypothesis that supports the effect of the previous step: the effect of sanitation on health. This analysis was conducted applying data at district level, which was constructed from the results from the universe of the Population Census (IBGE) by census tract, the National Register of Addresses for Statistical Purposes (CNEFE, 2011), the National Address Directory (DNE, 2015) and the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (DATASUS, 2010). Both steps made use of spatial and non-spatial econometrics techniques for estimating the two effects. The results of the first step indicate that the effect of one percentage increase in access to sanitation is associated with an increase of 0.11 percentage points in school attendance rate, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points in age-grade distortion rate, and also a decrease of 0.12 percentage points in the school dropout rate. The results of the second step indicate that, in general, access to inadequate sanitation services has a positive impact on the incidence of hospitalizations because of DRIES (per thousand inhabitants), the health variable considered in this study. For the population of all ages, the average total impact of a 1% increase in the share of dwellings served by rain water (stored in cisterns or cement tanks) is 0.217 cases per thousand inhabitants. Considering the percentage of dwellings with toilets connected to rudimentary cesspools, this impact is 0.035 cases per thousand inhabitants. On the other hand, with regard to the appropriate sanitation variable, the average total impact of 1% increase in the share of permanent dwellings connected to the water distribution network and whose block does not present open sewage conditions is -0.166 cases per thousand inhabitants. The variable with highest average total impact refers to the percentage of dwellings that have no toilet and, moreover, have the presence of open sewage in their surrounding conditions. The increase in a percentage unit in this variable generates an increase of 3.281 in the rate of incidence of hospitalizations because of DRIES. Another result of this study is that the younger population is the most affected by the poor conditions of access to basic sanitation services, both in terms of health on education. Finally, the public policy recommendations pointed out that, if the policies for mitigating inadequate sanitation conditions were implemented, starting with a one percentage decrease in the share of dwellings that do not have toilets and are exposed to open sewage, the health sector would save an amount corresponding to 4.4% of total federal spending invested annually in sanitation. Therefore, this policy can be a strategy to accelerate the targets for universal access to basic sanitation services in Brazil

O deslocamento forçado na Colômbia entendido como as migrações de pessoas dentro das fronteiras do país geradas ou forçadas pelas ações de violência dos grupos armados colombianos, posiciona hoje o país como o segundo no mundo com o maior numero de pessoas deslocadas forçosamente depois da Síria -segundo o relatório do Centro de Monitoramento do Deslocamento Interno (IDMC, na sigla em inglês) (2015). Desde 1985 a 1º de agosto de 2016, 7.844.527 pessoas têm sido deslocadas no país segundo o Governo da Colômbia, quase 15% da população total na atualidade. Nesta pesquisa se analisa a partir de uma perspectiva espacial o deslocamento forçado na Colômbia analisando através do mapa as relações entre conflitos sociais e espaço geográfico. São representadas e modelizadas as características e dinâmicas do fenômeno ao longo do tempo a partir de diferentes técnicas do mapeamento e da modelização gráfica. Paralelamente, é desenvolvido um estudo da evolução espaço-tempo do fenômeno social utilizando econometria espacial para estabelecer as correlações espaciais entre deslocamento e conflito armado, a partir de uma abordagem estatística. E num terceiro componente desta pesquisa, se desenvolve uma análise da política pública do Governo da Colômbia que responde às vítimas da violência no marco do conflito armado, incorporando como ferramenta de análise a cartografia produzida nesta pesquisa. Como parte dos resultados se constata que o deslocamento forçado é um fenômeno dinâmico que não se distribui aleatoriamente no espaço e pelo contrario apresenta concentração espacial. A cartografia mostra que o deslocamento não tem tido o mesmo comportamento ao longo dos anos, as migrações de pessoas têm diminuído no norte do país incrementando o volume no oriente e pacífico sul, aproximadamente a partir de 2008 quando este conduta se acentua. Da mesma forma se evidencia que os principais destinos da população deslocada são os polos econômicos e populacionais do país, onde geralmente a oferta de programas de atenção e reparação a vítimas é maior. / Forced displacement in Colombia, understood as the migrations of people within the borders of the country generated or forced by the violent actions of the Colombian armed groups, making it the country with the second highest number of internally displaced people in the world after Syria - according to the report from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) (2015). Since 1985 to August 1st 2016, 7.844.527 persons have been displaced in the country according the Government of Colombia (GoC), almost 12 percent of the current Colombia\'s population. In this study is analyzed the internal displacement in Colombia using a spatial perspective, where through the map is analyzed the relations between social conflicts and geographic space. The characteristics and dynamics of the phenomenon are represented and modeled over time from different techniques of mapping and graphic modeling. In parallel, is developed a study of the space-time evolution of the social phenomenon using spatial econometrics to establish the spatial correlations between displacement and armed conflict, from a statistical approach. And in a third component of this research, is developed an analysis of the public policy of the Government of Colombia for attention of the violence\'s victims within the framework of the armed conflict, incorporating as tool of analysis the cartography produced in this research. As part of the results it is verified that the forced displacement is a dynamic phenomenon that is not distributed randomly in space and on the contrary presents a spatial concentration. The cartography shows that the displacement has not had the same behavior over the years; the migrations of people have diminished in the north of the country, increasing the volume in the east and pacific south, approximately from 2008 when this trend is accentuated. In the same way, it is evident that the main destinations of the displaced population are the economic centers and main cities of the country, where the offer of programs of attention and reparation to victims is greater.

Cette thèse porte sur la prise en compte des interactions dans l’estimation de l’effet d’une politique publique. En effet, les méthodes standards d’estimation s’appuient généralement sur des hypothèses fortes excluant partiellement ou totalement les effets d’interactions aussi bien dans le processus de sélection des bénéficiaires que dans la performance de la politique. Cependant, la validité de ces hypothèses est discutable surtout dans le cadre d’une politique non-expérimentale, car un individu selon qu’il est bénéficiaire ou non de la politique ne vit pas en autarcie, il est en interaction avec son milieu. Ainsi, l’effet estimé de la politique par les méthodes traditionnelles est susceptible d’être biaisé (surestimation ou sous-estimation), avec pour conséquences des prises de décisions basées sur des résultats non fiables.Dans cette thèse, nous supposons que le traitement reçu par un individu peut affecter les autres individus de son voisinage à travers différents mécanismes de diffusion. Nous proposons un cadre méthodologique d’évaluation basé sur les méthodes de l’économétrie spatiale. Nous développons quatre extensions spatialisées de méthodes d’évaluation prenant en compte les interactions dans les processus de sélection et au niveau de la performance de la politique, avec une application empirique pour chaque méthode. / This thesis focuses on the integration of interactions in the estimation of the public policy’s effect. Indeed, the estimation standard methods usually rely on strong assumptions that exclude partially or completely the interaction effect both in the selection process of beneficiaries and in the performance of the policy. However, the validity of these assumptions is questionable, particularly in the context of a non-experimental policy because an individual according as it is the beneficiary or not the policy, is not isolated: he interacts with his neighborhood. Thus, the estimated effect of the policy by traditional methods is likely to be biased (underestimation or overestimation) therefore induce decision-making based on erroneous conclusions. Therefore, in this thesis, we assume that the treatment received by an individual can affect other individuals in his neighborhood through different diffusion mechanisms. Using spatial econometric methods, we propose a methodological framework to take into account both in selection process and in the outcomes the interactions in the estimation of the policy effect. Four extensions of the evaluation methods are developed with an empirical study for each method.

La dynamique d'ajustement structurel dans le secteur laitier en France est l'une des plus fortes de tous les secteurs agricoles avec des rythmes particulièrement élevés de disparition des exploitations et de croissance de la taille moyenne par exploitation. Cette dynamique est hétérogène dans l'espace, les régions les plus touchées sont celles où la densité laitière est faible à l'origine, celles qui résistent sont celles où la densité est élevée et où un tissu industriel est bien développé. Ces mouvements ont eu lieu malgré une politique agricole qui a cherché, au travers de multiples instruments (quota laitier, soutien des prix, aides directes…), à limiter ces mouvements et à maintenir la production laitière sur une grande partie du territoire français. Les modifications à venir de ces instruments risquent de modifier le paysage laitier jusqu'ici connu, et ainsi d'affecter la localisation et la structure des exploitations laitières. Dans ce contexte, l'objectif principal de cette thèse est d'analyser les déterminants de la croissance et de la localisation des exploitations laitières, d'identifier quels sont ceux qui renforcent la croissance et l'agglomération des exploitations et ceux qui ont tendance à limiter cette croissance et à disperser les exploitations et la production. Pour ce faire, nous avons dans un premier temps, estimé, en utilisant la méthode de chaînes de Markov, l'impact de certains facteurs économiques et politiques, sur les changements de taille des exploitations laitières. Dans un deuxième temps, à l'aide des méthodes d'économétrie spatiale, nous avons introduit une dimension spatiale à cette analyse afin d'appréhender les différences régionales (départementales) et de détecter d'éventuels effets d'agglomération. Dans un troisième temps, nous avons intégré de manière originale un modèle dynamique spatial récursif au modèle de Markov non-stationnaire afin de mesurer la distribution de la taille des exploitations selon la localisation en prenant en compte les interactions entre localisations. Ces différentes méthodes ont permis de montrer que les externalités positives liées à l'agglomération des exploitations laitières sont des facteurs prépondérants dans la détermination non seulement de la localisation mais aussi de la taille des exploitations laitières. Les externalités pécuniaires et les relations marchandes d'amont et d'aval ainsi que les prix des inputs et des outputs sont tout aussi importants dans la détermination de ces dynamiques. Les politiques agricoles, ici considérées au travers des aides directes du premier et second pilier, ont un impact assez faible dans l'ajustement structurel des exploitations laitières, seules les dotations à l'installation des jeunes s'avèrent très significatives et positivement liées à la localisation et la croissance des exploitations laitières. Les réglementations environnementales ont un effet plutôt dispersif des exploitations laitières et ceci particulièrement pour les grandes. Les activités concurrentes de l'activité laitière ont également un effet négatif sur la localisation des exploitations laitières mais cet effet s'estompe avec l'augmentation de la taille des exploitations. / Structural change in French dairy sector is one of the most important in agriculture with high rates of decreasing in the number of farms and increasing average farm size. This structural change is heterogeneous in space; the regions the most affected are those which are not traditional dairy producing. The regions which resist are the traditional dairy ones where dairying is highly developed. Agricultural policy instruments (dairy quota, price support, direct payments…) have affected those changes while trying to maintain the dairy production on a large part of France. The modifications to come of those instruments could modify the dairy farm location and structure. The aim of this thesis is to analyze the determinants of dairy farm growth and location, to identify which are those they foster growth and agglomeration of dairy farms and those they tend to slow down this growth and disperse dairy farms. To do so, we firstly estimate, using the non stationary Markov model, the impact of some economic and policy factors on the size farm distribution. Secondly, by means of the methods of spatial econometrics, we introduce a spatial dimension in this analysis to deal with regional differences and detect a possible effect of agglomeration externalities. Thirdly, we integrate a spatial dynamic recursive component to the non stationary Markov model. This allows us to model the effects of factors influencing the number, the size and the location of the dairy farms and to take account of interaction between locations. Those different methods allow us to show that agglomeration externalities are very important in the determination of the farm location as well as the growth of farm size. Pecuniary externalities and forward and backward linkages as well as the market prices are also determinant factors affecting farm structure and location. Agricultural policies, namely second pillar direct payments have a rather low impact in the structural adjustment of dairy farms. However subsidies to installation of young farmers are highly significant and positively related to farm growth and location. Environmental stringency seems to negatively affect dairy farm location and especially medium and large sized ones. Other livestock activities seem to compete with dairy farms especially smaller ones.