This thesis studies innovation networks, R&D spillovers, spatial spillovers, productivity growth and associated adjustments in Taiwan high-technology industries. A dynamic production modeling is built up to estimate R&D and its spillover effects among and within high-technology industries to study the dynamic effects of inter-, intra-industry R&D and spatial spillovers and exogenous technical changes on output growth for Taiwan high-technology industries. The thesis involves analysis of R&D spillover effects among and within high-technology industries to study the dynamic perspectives of the innovation diffusion. As leading high-technology and network expand the horizons of economic agents¡¦ production possibilities and decisions, the spillovers between productive entities are likely to be of increasing importance in the knowledge-based economy. Understanding these productive inter-dependencies, and their potential to motivate various types of spillovers require modeling and measuring their existence and impacts. We provide a conceptual and empirical framework for measuring and evaluating various types of spillover mechanism, which allows us both to quantify the cost-effects and evaluating the contribution to productive performance. We explore the temporal, spatial, and industrial spillovers using a dynamic cost function model that explicitly parameterizes the spillover weights and econometrically estimates them. We extend the dynamic external spillover model framework, described in Tsai and Chen (2001), which assumed that each firm derives an optimal plan so that the expected present value of current and future costs stream is minimized. First, we study the spillover effects in the dimension of industry considerations and geography. Second, to identify all kinds of spillover sources, to assess the spillover processes, and to evaluate the contributions of such inter-dependencies in productive performance we incorporate the concept of spillover ratio into the industry dynamic model. The temporal, intra-industry, inter-industry, and spatial R&D spillovers are distinguished and, in doing so, provide a richer account of innovation, learning and the means which are encouraged by geographical proximity.

Civil wars, insecurity, and ethnic disputes have imposed a high human and economic toll in Africa. In this dissertation, I examine the destructive impacts of war on agricultural productivity growth across the continent. Poor agricultural sector performance is more likely to be present around or during times of conflict. Using a panel of 51 countries from 1962-2009 I find that war impedes agricultural productivity growth. But a decline in productivity growth is not associated with the onset of civil war. Results show that low per capita income, stagnant economic growth, a large population, and lack of political freedom correspond to higher incidence of war, while conflict and lack of rainfall are associated with low agricultural productivity growth. I find that armed conflict reduces agricultural productivity growth by 0.76 percent per year and a major armed conflict reduces TFP growth by 1.16 percent. The incidence of a major armed conflict is associated with an efficiency decline in the year by 1.24 percent, substantial setback, for more than three-quarters of countries. This dissertation extends the discussion from productivity and efficiency analysis to the inclusion of the spatial dimension by applying exploratory and confirmatory spatial data analysis and capitalizing on successful spatial techniques and analytical tools proven in geospatial science. The exploratory spatial data analysis provides evidence of spatial autocorrelation in agricultural TFP growth rates in Africa. The results of hot spot analysis reveal that Algeria, Tunisia, Libya in the northern region and Nigeria and Benin in the western region constitute hot spots of agricultural performance and the cold spot, which includes areas of meager productivity, Rwanda and Burundi in central Africa. Africa suffers substantial losses in agricultural productivity when certain countries experience major armed conflict. The dissertation shows that a war may reduce productivity in a given country, but its real effects are larger because it impacts surrounding countries. Overall African TFP declined by 0.0572 percent per year as a result of conflict in Sudan. A war in the Democratic Republic of Congo caused African TFP growth to decline by 0.0285 percent per year.

Dans un contexte de carence méthodologique, cette thèse vise à apporter un nouveau souffle aux modèles de choix de localisation jusqu’ici incapables d’appréhender de manière réaliste la complexité des processus décisionnels des établissements tels que leurs choix de localisation optimale. Les modèles de choix de localisation utilisent des données géoréférencées, pour lesquelles les ensembles de choix ont une composante spatiale explicite. Il est donc essentiel de comprendre comment représenter l’aspect spatial dans les modèles de choix de localisation. La décision finale d’un établissement semble être liée au paysage économique environnant. La quantification du lien entre les observations voisines implique une prise de décision sur la spécification de la matrice spatiale. Pourtant, la grande majorité des chercheurs appliquent la métrique euclidienne sans considérer des hypothèses sous-jacentes et ses alternatives. Cette démarche a été initialement proposée en raison de données et de puissance informatique limitées plutôt que de son universalité. Dans les régions comme la région parisienne, oû la congestion ainsi que les problèmes de barrières physiques non traversables apparaissent clairement, les distances purement basées sur la topographie peuvent ne pas être les plus appropriées pour l’étude de la localisation intra-urbaine. Il est possible d’acquérir des connaissances en reconsidérant et en mesurant la distance en fonction du problème analysé. Plutôt que d’enfermer les chercheurs dans une structure restrictive de la matrice de pondération, cette thèse propose une approche souple pour identifier la métrique de distance la plus susceptible de prendre en compte correctement les marchés voisins selon le secteur considéré. En plus de la distance euclidienne standard, six autres mesures sont testées : les temps de déplacement en voiture (pour les périodes de pointe et hors pointe) et en transport en commun, ainsi que les distances de réseau correspondantes.Par ailleurs, les décisions d’un établissement particulier sont interdépendantes des choix d’autres acteurs, ce qui rend les choix de localisation particulièrement intéressants et difficiles à analyser. Ces problèmes épineux posés par l’interdépendance des décisions ne peuvent généralement être négligés sans altérer l’authenticité du modèle de décision d’établissement. Les approches classiques de la sélection de localisation échouent en ne fournissant qu’un ensemble d’étapes systématiques pour la résolution de problèmes sans tenir compte des interactions stratégiques entre les établissements sur le marché. L’un des objectifs de la présente thèse est d’explorer comment adapter correctement les modèles de choix de localisation pour étudier les choix discrets d’établissement lorsqu’ils sont interdépendants.En outre, une entreprise peut ouvrir un certain nombre d’unités et servir le marché à partir de plusieurs localisations. Encore une fois, la théorie et les méthodes traditionnelles peuvent ne pas convenir aux situations dans lesquelles les établissements individuels, au lieu de se situer indépendamment les uns des autres, forment une grande organisation, telle qu’une chaîne confrontée à une concurrence féroce d’autres chaînes. Le modèle prend en compte non seulement les interactions intra-chaînes mais aussi inter-chaînes. Aussi, la nécessité d’indiquer une nette différence entre la population de jour et de nuit a été soulignée. La demande est représentée par les flux de piétons et de voitures, la foule de clients potentiels passant par les centres commerciaux, les stations de trains et de métros, les aéroports et les sites touristiques. L’Enquête Globale Transport 2010 (EGT 2010), entre autres, est utile pour atteindre cet objectif. / This thesis is breathing new life into the location choice models of establishments. The need for methodological advances in order to more realistically model the complexity of establishment decision-making processes, such as their optimal location choices, is the key motivation of this thesis. First, location choice models use geo-referenced data, for which choice sets have an explicit spatial component. It is thus critical to understand how to represent spatial aspect in location choice models. The final decision of an establishment seems to be related to the surrounding economic landscape. When accounting for the linkage between neighboring observations, the decision on the spatial weight matrix specification must be made. Yet, researchers overwhelmingly apply the Euclidean metric without realizing its underlying assumptions and its alternatives. This representation has been originally proposed due to scarce data and low computing power, rather than because of its universality. In areas, such as the Paris region, where high congestion or uncrossable physical barriers problems clearly arise, distances purely based on topography may not be the most appropriate for the study of intra-urban location. There are insights to be gained by mindfully reconsidering and measuring distance depending on a problem being analyzed. Rather than locking researchers into a restrictive structure of the weight matrix, this thesis proposes a flexible approach to intimate which distance metric is more likely to correctly account for the nearby markets depending on the sector considered. In addition to the standard Euclidean distance, six alternative metrics are tested: travel times by car (for the peak and off-peak periods) and by public transit, and the corresponding network distances. Second, what makes these location choices particularly interesting and challenging to analyze is that decisions of a particular establishment are interrelated with choices of other players.These thorny problems posed by the interdependence of decisions generally cannot be assumed away, without altering the authenticity of the model of establishment decision making. The conventional approaches to location selection fail by providing only a set of systematic steps for problem-solving without considering strategic interactions between the establishments in the market. One of the goals of the present thesis is to explore how to correctly adapt location choice models to study establishment discrete choices when they are interrelated.Finally, a firm can open a number of units and serve the market from multiple locations. Once again, traditional theory and methods may not be suitable to situations wherein individual establishments, instead of locating independently from each other, form a large orgnization, such as a chain facing a fierce competition from other chains. There is a necessity to incorporate interactions between units within the same and competing firms. In addition, the need to state a clear difference between the daytime and nighttime population has been emphasized. Demand is represented by pedestrian and car flows, the crowd of potential clients passing through the commercial centers, train and subways stations, airports, and highly touristic sites. The Global Survey of Transport (EGT 2010), among others, is of service to reach this objective. More realistically designed location choice models accounting for spatial spillovers, strategic interaction, and with a more appropriate definition of distance and demand can become a powerful and flexible tool to assist in finding a befitting site. An appropriately chosen location in turn can make an implicative difference for the newly-created business. The contents of this thesis provide some useful recommendations for transport analysts, city planners, plan developers, business owners, and shopping center investors.

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Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-09-23T13:47:58Z No. of bitstreams: 1 mariavivianadefreitascabral.pdf: 1518709 bytes, checksum: 45ae2add71844fef3522958570ca30c6 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Diamantino Mayra (mayra.diamantino@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-09-26T20:30:51Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 mariavivianadefreitascabral.pdf: 1518709 bytes, checksum: 45ae2add71844fef3522958570ca30c6 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-26T20:30:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 mariavivianadefreitascabral.pdf: 1518709 bytes, checksum: 45ae2add71844fef3522958570ca30c6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016 / A reversão dos índices de crime no estado de São Paulo tem despertado o interesse dos pesquisadores em verificar as possíveis causas para a redução de 67,1% nas taxas de homicídios no período de 2000 a 2010. Diversos fatores têm sido apontados para explicar esse fenômeno, porém não foi encontrado na literatura, até o momento, estudos que avaliassem o Sistema de Informações Criminais – INFOCRIM, adotado por 67 municípios paulistas até o ano de 2010. Desse modo, este trabalho tem o objetivo de testar a hipótese de que o INFOCRIM tenha contribuído para a redução das taxas de homicídios entre 2000 e 2010, controlando por diversos determinantes do crime e por outras iniciativas de segurança pública. Para isso, foi realizada uma avaliação de tratamento por meio da abordagem das diferenças-em-diferenças espacial (SDID), método pioneiro capaz de modelar a migração do crime das regiões tratadas para regiões vizinhas. O grupo de tratamento foi definido como os 67 municípios contemplados pelo INFOCRIM, ao passo que o grupo de controle foi definido como os 548 municípios paulistas remanescentes na amostra. Por meio de um painel de dados de dois períodos (2000 e 2010), o modelo de defasagem espacial (SDID-SAR) evidenciou a existência de transbordamentos espaciais (migração de crime) entre os municípios paulistas e um efeito redutor do crime devido ao INFOCRIM. Em termos de efeitos totais, o INFOCRIM reduziu a taxa de homicídios em 6,183 entre 2000 e 2010. Quanto aos efeitos diretos, o Programa reduziu a taxa de homicídios em 3,745, enquanto, em termos de efeitos indiretos, o INFOCRIM diminuiu a taxa de homicídios em 2,437 durante esse período. Isso implica que a interação espacial existente entre os agentes reforçou o efeito médio do INFOCRIM. Os resultados corroboraram a relação positiva entre crime e desemprego e a relação inversa entre crime e educação. A melhoria da equidade social contribuiu para a redução da criminalidade violenta enquanto o adensamento populacional apresentou sinal contrário ao esperado. Há um efeito dissuasor indireto sobre as taxas de homicídios decorrente da existência de guarda municipal armada. Em termos de vidas poupadas, o Estado de São Paulo foi capaz de minimizar os prejuízos sociais decorrentes da criminalidade, uma vez que a implementação do INFOCRIM evitou 2.546 homicídios de 2000 até 2010. Portanto, o INFOCRIM pode ser considerado um Programa exitoso no combate à criminalidade letal. / The reversal of the trend of crime rates in the state of São Paulo has arisen the interest of researchers to verify the possible causes for the reduction of 67.1% in homicide rate from 2000 to 2010. Several factors have been suggested to explain this phenomenon, but it was not found in the literature, so far, researches to evaluate the Criminal Information System – INFOCRIM, adopted by 67 municipalities in São Paulo until 2010. Thus this work is aimed at testing the hypothesis that INFOCRIM has contributed to the reduction in homicide rate between 2000 and 2010, controlling for determinants of crime and other public security actions. To do so, a treatment evaluation is performed using the spatial difference-in- differences (SDID) approach, a pioneering method able to model the crime migration from the treated regions to their neighboring regions. The treatment group is defined as being the 67 municipalities with INFOCRIM whereas the control group is defined as being 548 municipalities remaining in the sample. Using two-period panel data (2000 and 2010), the spatial lag model (SDID-SAR) indicated the existence of spatial spillovers (crime migration) among municipalities in the São Paulo state and a crime reducing effect of INFOCRIM. As to total effects, INFOCRIM reduced homicide rate by 6.183 over the period 2000-2010. In terms of direct terms, the program decreased homicide rate by 3.745, while, in terms of indirect effects, INFOCRIM reduced homicide rate by 2.437 during this period. . This implies that the spatial interaction between agents enhanced the average effect of INFOCRIM. These findings confirmed the positive relation between crime and unemployment and the inverse relation between crime and education. The improvement of social equity contributed to the reduction of violent crime while the population density showed a sign contrary to theoretically expected. There is an indirect effect on homicide rate due to the existence of municipal guard. In terms of lives saved, the Government of the State of São Paulo was able to minimize the social loss from offenses, since the implementation of INFOCRIM has avoided 2,546 homicides over the period 2000-2010. Therefore, the INFOCRIM can be considered successful in fighting lethal crime.

[pt] Neste trabalho, estudo a oferta e demanda por habitação na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo, uma das principais cidades do Brasil. Usando dados detalhados de deslocamento ao trabalho, eu estimo um modelo quantitativo espacial, no qual agentes tomam decisões sobre local de residência e trabalho com base em aluguéis, salários, custos de deslocamento e amenidades. Proponho uma extensão do arcabouço usual com um setor formal de oferta de moradia para incluir também um setor informal em competição, uma importante característica institucional presente em diversos países em desenvolvimento. Eu quantifico os spillovers espaciais associados ao setor informal e investigo seu papel em prover residentes com melhor acesso ao mercado de trabalho local. / [en] In this work, I study the supply and demand for housing in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area, a major city in Brazil. Using detailed commuting data, I estimate a quantitative spatial model, in which agents make decisions on residence and workplace based on local rents, wages, commuting costs, and amenities. I propose an extension of the usual framework with a formal housing supply sector to include a competing informal one, an important institutional characteristic present in many developing countries. I quantify the spatial spillovers of this informal housing, and investigate its role in providing residents with improved access to the local labor market.

Cette thèse analyse l’impact des facteurs institutionnels et de la gouvernance sur l’investissement privé dans les pays en développement. La problématique de la « bonne gouvernance » et de l’amélioration de la qualité institutionnelle notamment dans les pays en développement sont au coeur des préoccupations de la communauté internationale. Pour autant, il n’existe pas un cadre institutionnel et un système de gouvernance unique et optimal qui s’imposeraient de manière exogène à tous les pays, car les facteurs culturels, historiques et anthropologiques modèlent la qualité des institutions et le mode de gouvernance. En effet, si les pays peuvent avoir un objectif commun, celui d’un cadre institutionnel permettant notamment de garantir la viabilité et la crédibilité du climat d’investissement, ils démarrent tous de points différents, marqués par des caractéristiques propres.Ces facteurs nous emmènent à privilégier une approche relativiste et non normative de la qualité des institutions et de la gouvernance. Cependant,tous les cadres institutionnels ne se valent pas. Certaines configurations institutionnelles accroissent l’incertitude et l’irréversibilité de l’investissement. Nos analyses placent le déficit de gouvernance et la faiblesse des institutions au cœur de la problématique de l’incertitude et de l’irréversibilité de l’investissement dans les pays en développement. Nous adoptons dans cette thèse une démarche plurielle consistant en une analyse macroéconométrique qui permet d’apprécier le comportement de l’investissement au niveau agrégé, et une analyse microéconométrique qui a l’intérêt de prendre en compte l’hétérogénéité des comportements d’investissement des entreprises. Un accent particulier est porté à l’Afrique subsaharienne qui est la région ayant le plus faible taux d’investissement. / This thesis analyzes the impact of governance and institutions on private investment in developing countries. "Good governance" and institutional quality especially in developing countries are of great concern to the international community. However, there is no unique and optimal institutional framework and governance system which can be set up in all countries independently to their cultural, historical and anthropological characteristics. Indeed, if all countries can share a common objective which consists of an institutional framework, able to ensure the sustainability and credibility of the investment climate, they will all start from different points with specific characteristics. These factors lead us to favor a non normative approach of the quality of institutions and governance. However, some institutional framework increases uncertainty and irreversibility ofinvestment. In this thesis, we consider weak institutions and poor governance as the main sources of uncertainty and irreversibility of investment indeveloping countries. We use a macroeconometric approach which analyses the investment behavior at the aggregate level, and a microeconometric approach which takes into account the heterogeneity of the investment behavior of firms. An emphasis is put on sub-Saharan African countries that have the lowest private investment rate.