1980年代後國際間金融市場自由化潮流及全球化快速發展，使現代國家難以置身事外，央行為達穩定國內幣值及經濟成長，需要考量外匯市場、實質經濟、資產市場這三方面的互動情形，平衡以免於衝擊，此時了解總體變數受國內外衝擊大小及其背後傳遞管道更為必要，如此才能訂定適當的貨幣政策以抵禦未預期衝擊。 　　本文係以SVAR模型探討匯率自由化時期總體經濟受國內外衝擊大小及變異因素變化，得到實證結果如下：緊縮性貨幣政策實施產出與物價短期不受影響，但匯率會先降後升，短期內可抵禦匯率波動；未預期匯率上升短期產出與物價有遲滯性反應，央行會對抵禦匯率波動沖銷，但不過度干預；國際原油價格上漲產出有落後反應，物價受衝擊後緩慢收斂，央行會因應供給面衝擊升息，匯率也會上升反應通膨預期；美國聯邦資金利率調升，我國產出會落後反應，物價短期則不能為國外利率解釋，利率則隨美國升息，匯率則會急降後回復原水準。利率的變異成分主要是M2與美國聯邦資金利率，顯見我國小型開放經濟特質；匯率變異，M2與美國聯邦資金利率占重要因素，另外美國產出也對我國匯率波動有重要影響；產出代理變數－失業率變異來源，貨幣總計數M2重要性次於本身，支持貨幣對產出有影響學說；核心CPI變異實質匯率、失業率占重要成分，顯見供給面對物價決定貢獻。 　　匯率自由化後貨幣對實質面與金融面變異有極高解釋力，可見貨幣在今日資金移動快速的全球化環境有重要影響，另外，美國產出對我國匯率波動有重要貢獻，顯現我與美方貿易密切，其國外產出變化會進而傳導至我國經濟。

The fluctuation of the world economy has a tremendous influence to domestic imports and exports to a small opened economy. In another word, it has great impact to the current account of a small opened economy. After the 1980s, Taiwan relies on the growth of net export to drive its economy growth, showing that depend on to foreign trade degree quite high, so government values the current account very much. With the economic variables of the region of America, Asia, and Europe to carry on regional study the relation with the current account of Taiwan, the relevant parameter included in this research is that foreign production value, domestic production value, real effective of exchange rate, and real interest rate differential of domestic and international. Utilize structural vector autoregressive model, with impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions analysis result, to consider each variable in short-run and long-run to the current account of influence. According to impulse response functions, it synthesizes three regional analysis results, the current account accord with the theories with the relevant parameter. The foreign production value increases to cause the current account increment. The domestic production value increases to cause the current account reduced and converge in the long-run. The real effective of exchange rate increases to cause the current account surplus in the short-run, the impulsive effect is convergence in the long-run. The real interest rate differential increases to cause the current account deficit in the short-run. According to forecast error variance decompositions, the current account is influence by the real effective of exchange rate and itself factor in three regions, in addition the influence by the foreign production value in the region of America and Asia. In the region of America and Asia, the current account receives self influence that decreases progressively at time changes that part substitutes by the foreign production value. Under the long-run, the foreign production value in the region of America and Asia is also influence by the current account because imports and exports of Taiwan are in the majority that the main country comes from America and Asia, that the production value of regions are easier to cause the current account. The current account always causes by the real effective of exchange rate in the long-run. Accord with Shirvani and Wilbratte (1997), the real exchange rate has the long-run relational with the current account in real example analysis. In the short-run, the exchange rate depreciation has not influenced the result to the current account. In the long-run, the depreciation can improve the current account to become surplus. This research discovers to influence the factor of the current account of Taiwan, in the region of America and Asia, the foreign production value makes the phenomenon with the current account surplus in the long-run. In the region of American, Asia, and Europe, the real effective of exchange rate increases to make the phenomenon with the current account surplus in the long-run, the current account receives self influence no matter under short-run and long-run. In the short-run, the influence of the current account results negative direction and oscillation to convergence.

Diploma thesis is focused on analysis of welded joints of ordinary carbon steel with corrosion-resistant, made by commercially available methods TIG, WIG, MMA and spot welding. Thesis describes welding methods used in heavy and light industry in detail. Next section describes creation of homogeneous welds based A-F, suitable methods and problems with these welding seams. Experimental part deals with creating a transition weld joints between 1.0330 and 1.4301 materials and comparing of their quality. Welds are subjected to the effects of salt fog and then degradation of the transition zone was observed caused by corrosion. Subsequently, the welds are subjected to metallographic examination, a tensile test, and the resulted weld metal is analyzed in Schaeffler diagram.

Traditional macroeconomics believes that confidence is not the main cause of economic fluctuations, but when faced with financial crises, monetary authorities still emphasize the role of stabilizing confidence. Although people generally agree that confidence is an important part of the transmission of macro-policies to micro- individuals, there is neither empirical evidence support nor corresponding mechanism research. This thesis attempts to answer the following questions: Does business confidence affect the effectiveness of monetary policy? Does business confidence have the same impact on monetary policy in different economic periods? This thesis first constructed a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model to test the role of business confidence in the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area. The empirical results show that expansionary monetary policy can effectively boost business confidence while stimulating output growth. In addition, this thesis extends the model by introducing share prices and exchange rates to investigate the role of these two important to the monetary transmission mechanism, concluding that business confidence plays a strong role in interest rate transmission and a weaker role in the transmission of asset prices and exchange rates. Subsequently, in order to...

This paper investigates the vulnerability of South Africa to the shocks that originate from its major trading partners over time using a structural vector autoregressive framework. We examine the impact of shocks emanating from the EU, the US, China, Japan, India and Brazil on South Africa’s output growth through both direct and indirect trade linkages, by considering the changing trade patterns from 1996 to 2017. The results suggest that the South African economy has become more integrated with emerging economies. Furthermore, China has increased its impact on the output growth of the other sample economies through trade linkages, which implies that developments in China are of increasing importance to other economies. The US and the EU are still dominated in propagating shocks despite their declining impact on the output growth of other economies in this sample.

Traditional macroeconomics believes that confidence is not the main cause of economic fluctuations, but when faced with financial crises, monetary authorities still emphasize the role of stabilizing confidence. Although people generally agree that confidence is an important part of the transmission of macro-policies to micro- individuals, there is neither empirical evidence support nor corresponding mechanism research. This thesis attempts to answer the following questions: Does business confidence affect the effectiveness of monetary policy? Does business confidence have the same impact on monetary policy in different economic periods? This thesis first constructed a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model to test the role of business confidence in the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area. The empirical results show that expansionary monetary policy can effectively boost business confidence while stimulating output growth. In addition, this thesis extends the model by introducing share prices and exchange rates to investigate the role of these two important to the monetary transmission mechanism, concluding that business confidence plays a strong role in interest rate transmission and a weaker role in the transmission of asset prices and exchange rates. Subsequently, in order to...

Taking GDP growth and inflation as endogenous variables, this paper employs a Structural VAR from Baumeister and Hamilton (2015, 2019) to identify aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks for Bhutan, focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic. The results suggest that 94 percent of the GDP growth plunge in 2020 is attributable to a fall in aggregate supply. The higher inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 also implies a negative supply shock. Although the magnitudes differ, characterizing the COVID-19 pandemic in Bhutan as a supply shock coincides with preceding episodes that were also primarily driven by supply shocks.

A análise da expressão gênica através de dados gerados em experimentos de microarrays de DNA vem possibilitando uma melhor compreensão da dinâmica e dos mecanismos envolvidos nos processos celulares ao nível molecular. O aprimoramento desta análise é crucial para o avanço do conhecimento sobre as bases moleculares das neoplasias e para a identificação de marcadores moleculares para uso em diagnóstico, desenho de novos medicamentos em terapias anti-tumorais. Este trabalho tem como objetivos o desenvolvimento de modelos de análise desses dados, propondo uma nova forma de normalização de dados provenientes de microarrays e dois modelos para a construção de redes regulatórias de expressão gênica, sendo uma baseada na conectividade dinâmica entre diversos genes ao longo do ciclo celular e a outra que resolve o problema da dimensionalidade, em que o número de experimentos de microarrays é menor que o número de genes. Apresenta-se, ainda, um pacote de ferramentas com uma interface gráfica de fácil uso contendo diversas técnicas de análise de dados já conhecidas como também as abordagens propostas neste trabalho. / The analyses of DNA microarrays gene expression data are allowing a better comprehension of the dynamics and mechanisms involved in cellular processes at the molecular level. In the cancer field, the improvement of gene expression interpretation is crucial to better understand the molecular basis of the neoplasias and to identify molecular markers to be used in diagnosis and in the design of new anti-tumoral drugs. The main goals of this work were to develop a new method to normalize DNA microarray data and two models to construct gene expression regulatory networks. One method analyses the dynamic connectivity between genes through the cell cycle and the other solves the dimensionality problem in regulatory networks, meaning that the number of experiments is lower than the number of genes. We also developed a toolbox with a user-friendly interface, displaying several established statistical methods implemented to analyze gene expression data as well as the new approaches presented in this work.

Submitted by PPG Economia do desenvolvimento (economia-pg@pucrs.br) on 2018-02-28T17:55:09Z No. of bitstreams: 1 CARLOS_ MARCHIONATTI__DIS.pdf: 1459801 bytes, checksum: 85429d200a6a1593f861f6d9277c6bb5 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Caroline Xavier (caroline.xavier@pucrs.br) on 2018-03-06T14:11:06Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 CARLOS_ MARCHIONATTI__DIS.pdf: 1459801 bytes, checksum: 85429d200a6a1593f861f6d9277c6bb5 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-03-06T14:16:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 CARLOS_ MARCHIONATTI__DIS.pdf: 1459801 bytes, checksum: 85429d200a6a1593f861f6d9277c6bb5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-22 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior - CAPES / Pol?tica fiscal est? em debate nos dias atuais. Seus impactos no crescimento do PIB, infla??o, juros e taxa real de c?mbio trouxeram informa??es pelos artigos de Alesina (2010) e Cavalcanti e Vereda (2010 e 2015). Este trabalho vista extender os choques de pol?tica fiscal via gastos do governo usados no DSGE de Cavalcanti e Vereda (2015) em tr?s diferentes n?veis: federal, estadual e municipal. SVAR para a economia brasileira apresentaram novos par?metros para as tr?s esferas do DSGE proposto. Os resultados mostraram que, apesar de haver um aumento tempor?rio no PIB, uma pol?tica fiscal expansionista via aumento dos gastos p?blicos acarreta maior infla??o, maiores juros, taxa de c?mbio real apreciada e inicia uma recess?o. / Fiscal Policy is on debate nowadays. Its impacts on GDP growth, inflation, interest and real exchange rate brought insights by the works of Alesina (2010) and Cavalcanti and Vereda (2010 and 2015). This work aims to extend the fiscal policy shocks via government spending used in Cavalcanti and Vereda?s (2015) DSGE model into different levels: federal, state and city levels. SVARs for the Brazilian economy presented new parameters for all the three levels of the DSGE model proposed. The results presented showed that although there is a temporary increase on GDP level, an expansionary fiscal policy via government spending leads to higher inflation, higher interest rates, appreciated real exchange rate and starts a recession.

Os fertilizantes minerais apresentam-se como um dos insumos contribuidores para o aumento da produtividade no Brasil desde os anos de 1980, diante da limitada expansão da área agrícola, e são considerados como poupadores de terra. No entanto, por serem provindos de recursos naturais escassos, extraidos viávelmente (econômico e físico) de limitados locais do mundo, e dependerem altamente de energia para a síntese, fazem com que a produção agrícola seja sensível aos impactos de oferta e demanda pelos fertiliznates. A exemplo do ocorrido em 2008/2009, em que a elevação dos preços dos fertilizantes reduziu sua quantidade de consumo e houve alteração no mercado das commodities agrícolas. Diante disso, objetivou analisar a dinâmica econômica entre os fertilizantes minerais com o mercado agrícola da região Centro-Oeste (CO), onde apresenta o maior consumo de fertilizante minerais e concentra a maior produção agrícola do país. Para análise, considerou-se as variáveis como a quantidade consumida de fertilizantes e o poder de compra ponderado à produtividade (poder de compra p.p.) no CO, e o preço do fertilizante específico. Empregou-se a metodologia de séries temporais, mais especificamente o modelo Autorregressivo Vetorial Estrutural (SVAR), para cada macronutriente primário, ou seja, os fertilizantes nitrogenados, fosfatados e potássicos. Tal modelo permitiu estimar as respostas das variáveis endógenas aos impactos positivos tanto das demais variáveis como de si próprio. Os resultados mostram que a quantidade consumida como sendo a variável mais endógena, com a maior participação do poder de compra p.p. do que seus preços, além da própria variação para os três modelos. Diferentemente dos preços que se apresentaram mais exógenos, cuja contribuição própria foi mais de 90%, também para os três modelos. Por conseguinte, nas análises dos impactos determinou-se a maior sensibilidade de variação entre o impacto no poder de compra p.p. sobre a quantidade consumida do fertilizante para os três modelos. Ao serem comparados, obtiveram a ordem decrescente das elasticidades igual a 0,65; 0,58; e 0,48, respectivamente aos fertilizantes N > P205 > K2O, sequência esta conferida pela atuação agronômica dos nutrientes no solo da região e nas culturas. Já a menor sensibilidade de variação ocorreu entre o poder de compra p.p. sobre o choque nos preços dos fertilizantes, resultado esse esperado, devido os fertilizantes serem um dos insumos necessários para o aumento de produtividade. Assim, reconhece-se a relação positiva entre os três tipos de fertilizantes minerais e a produção no Centro-Oeste pelas demandas dos fertilizantes se apresentarem inelásticas à variação dos preços dos fertilizantes. / Mineral fertilizers are one of the contributor inputs to increase productivity in Brazil since the 1980s, given the limited expansion of the agricultural area, and are considered land-savers. However, because they are derived from scarce natural resources, viably extracted (economically and structurally) from limited locations of the world, and highly dependent on energy for synthesis, they make agricultural production sensitive to the impacts of supply and demand. As in 2008/2009, when the increase in fertilizer prices reduced its quantity of consumption, there were changes in the agricultural commodities market. The present dissertation aims to analyze the economic dynamics between mineral fertilizers and the agricultural market of the Central-West region, where the highest mineral fertilizer consumption is presented and the largest agricultural production in the country is concentrated. For the analysis, we considered some variables, such as the quantity of fertilizers consumed, and the purchasing power weighted by productivity, as well as the price of the specific fertilizer. The time series methodology, more specifically the Autoregressive Structural Vector Model (SVAR), was used for each primary macronutrient, that is, the nitrogen, phosphate and potassium fertilizers. This model allowed us to estimate the responses of the endogenous variables to the positive impacts of the other variables as well as of themselves. The results found the quantity consumed as being the most endogenous variable, with the greater participation of weighted purchasing power than its prices, besides its own variation for the three models. Differently from the prices that presented more exogenous, whose own contribution was more than 90% also for the three models. Therefore, in the analysis of the impacts, it was determined the greater sensitivity of variation between the amount of fertilizer consumed on the shock in purchasing power for three models. When compared, they obtained the decreasing order of elasticities equal to 0.65; 0.58; and 0,48, respectively, to N> P205 > K2O fertilizers, a sequence that is conferred by the agronomic performance of the nutrients in the soil of the region and in the crops. On the other hand, the lower sensitivity of variation occurred between purchasing power over the shock of fertilizer prices, a result expected, because fertilizers are one of the inputs needed to increase productivity. Thus, the positive relation between the three types of mineral fertilizers and the production in the Central-West by the demands of the fertilizers are inelastic to the variation of the fertilizer prices.