Os fertilizantes minerais apresentam-se como um dos insumos contribuidores para o aumento da produtividade no Brasil desde os anos de 1980, diante da limitada expansão da área agrícola, e são considerados como poupadores de terra. No entanto, por serem provindos de recursos naturais escassos, extraidos viávelmente (econômico e físico) de limitados locais do mundo, e dependerem altamente de energia para a síntese, fazem com que a produção agrícola seja sensível aos impactos de oferta e demanda pelos fertiliznates. A exemplo do ocorrido em 2008/2009, em que a elevação dos preços dos fertilizantes reduziu sua quantidade de consumo e houve alteração no mercado das commodities agrícolas. Diante disso, objetivou analisar a dinâmica econômica entre os fertilizantes minerais com o mercado agrícola da região Centro-Oeste (CO), onde apresenta o maior consumo de fertilizante minerais e concentra a maior produção agrícola do país. Para análise, considerou-se as variáveis como a quantidade consumida de fertilizantes e o poder de compra ponderado à produtividade (poder de compra p.p.) no CO, e o preço do fertilizante específico. Empregou-se a metodologia de séries temporais, mais especificamente o modelo Autorregressivo Vetorial Estrutural (SVAR), para cada macronutriente primário, ou seja, os fertilizantes nitrogenados, fosfatados e potássicos. Tal modelo permitiu estimar as respostas das variáveis endógenas aos impactos positivos tanto das demais variáveis como de si próprio. Os resultados mostram que a quantidade consumida como sendo a variável mais endógena, com a maior participação do poder de compra p.p. do que seus preços, além da própria variação para os três modelos. Diferentemente dos preços que se apresentaram mais exógenos, cuja contribuição própria foi mais de 90%, também para os três modelos. Por conseguinte, nas análises dos impactos determinou-se a maior sensibilidade de variação entre o impacto no poder de compra p.p. sobre a quantidade consumida do fertilizante para os três modelos. Ao serem comparados, obtiveram a ordem decrescente das elasticidades igual a 0,65; 0,58; e 0,48, respectivamente aos fertilizantes N > P205 > K2O, sequência esta conferida pela atuação agronômica dos nutrientes no solo da região e nas culturas. Já a menor sensibilidade de variação ocorreu entre o poder de compra p.p. sobre o choque nos preços dos fertilizantes, resultado esse esperado, devido os fertilizantes serem um dos insumos necessários para o aumento de produtividade. Assim, reconhece-se a relação positiva entre os três tipos de fertilizantes minerais e a produção no Centro-Oeste pelas demandas dos fertilizantes se apresentarem inelásticas à variação dos preços dos fertilizantes. / Mineral fertilizers are one of the contributor inputs to increase productivity in Brazil since the 1980s, given the limited expansion of the agricultural area, and are considered land-savers. However, because they are derived from scarce natural resources, viably extracted (economically and structurally) from limited locations of the world, and highly dependent on energy for synthesis, they make agricultural production sensitive to the impacts of supply and demand. As in 2008/2009, when the increase in fertilizer prices reduced its quantity of consumption, there were changes in the agricultural commodities market. The present dissertation aims to analyze the economic dynamics between mineral fertilizers and the agricultural market of the Central-West region, where the highest mineral fertilizer consumption is presented and the largest agricultural production in the country is concentrated. For the analysis, we considered some variables, such as the quantity of fertilizers consumed, and the purchasing power weighted by productivity, as well as the price of the specific fertilizer. The time series methodology, more specifically the Autoregressive Structural Vector Model (SVAR), was used for each primary macronutrient, that is, the nitrogen, phosphate and potassium fertilizers. This model allowed us to estimate the responses of the endogenous variables to the positive impacts of the other variables as well as of themselves. The results found the quantity consumed as being the most endogenous variable, with the greater participation of weighted purchasing power than its prices, besides its own variation for the three models. Differently from the prices that presented more exogenous, whose own contribution was more than 90% also for the three models. Therefore, in the analysis of the impacts, it was determined the greater sensitivity of variation between the amount of fertilizer consumed on the shock in purchasing power for three models. When compared, they obtained the decreasing order of elasticities equal to 0.65; 0.58; and 0,48, respectively, to N> P205 > K2O fertilizers, a sequence that is conferred by the agronomic performance of the nutrients in the soil of the region and in the crops. On the other hand, the lower sensitivity of variation occurred between purchasing power over the shock of fertilizer prices, a result expected, because fertilizers are one of the inputs needed to increase productivity. Thus, the positive relation between the three types of mineral fertilizers and the production in the Central-West by the demands of the fertilizers are inelastic to the variation of the fertilizer prices.

A análise da expressão gênica através de dados gerados em experimentos de microarrays de DNA vem possibilitando uma melhor compreensão da dinâmica e dos mecanismos envolvidos nos processos celulares ao nível molecular. O aprimoramento desta análise é crucial para o avanço do conhecimento sobre as bases moleculares das neoplasias e para a identificação de marcadores moleculares para uso em diagnóstico, desenho de novos medicamentos em terapias anti-tumorais. Este trabalho tem como objetivos o desenvolvimento de modelos de análise desses dados, propondo uma nova forma de normalização de dados provenientes de microarrays e dois modelos para a construção de redes regulatórias de expressão gênica, sendo uma baseada na conectividade dinâmica entre diversos genes ao longo do ciclo celular e a outra que resolve o problema da dimensionalidade, em que o número de experimentos de microarrays é menor que o número de genes. Apresenta-se, ainda, um pacote de ferramentas com uma interface gráfica de fácil uso contendo diversas técnicas de análise de dados já conhecidas como também as abordagens propostas neste trabalho. / The analyses of DNA microarrays gene expression data are allowing a better comprehension of the dynamics and mechanisms involved in cellular processes at the molecular level. In the cancer field, the improvement of gene expression interpretation is crucial to better understand the molecular basis of the neoplasias and to identify molecular markers to be used in diagnosis and in the design of new anti-tumoral drugs. The main goals of this work were to develop a new method to normalize DNA microarray data and two models to construct gene expression regulatory networks. One method analyses the dynamic connectivity between genes through the cell cycle and the other solves the dimensionality problem in regulatory networks, meaning that the number of experiments is lower than the number of genes. We also developed a toolbox with a user-friendly interface, displaying several established statistical methods implemented to analyze gene expression data as well as the new approaches presented in this work.

Current effectiveness and functioning of one of the key instruments of monetary policy, the interest rate, has been debated around the world with an increasing intensity. Sweden, specifically, characterized by a recent low inflation period coupled with an experimental approach to monetary policy (utilizing both negative interest rates and quantitative easing) presents a peculiar case of interest. This thesis presents new evidence on the monetary policy transmission in Sweden during the low inflation period. To convey this, it utilizes the Proxy-SVAR method, where data from financial markets are used to identify monetary policy shocks and their propagation through the financial and macroeconomic variables. In particular, STINA-swaps are used as an instrumental variable in our main model of interest. The results strongly suggest dampened effectiveness of the repo rate, the Riksbank's main interest rate tool, in achieving the inflation target over the past decades. Price puzzle is present in all model variations applied and hence hints at the inability of the Swedish central bank to effectively control inflation via interest rate decisions. It is important to state that the results are robust to multiple econometric specifications, different inflation setups or estimation methods. Furthermore, the...

Disertacijoje tiriama fiskalinės politikos įtaka Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos makroekonominiam stabilumui. Disertacijos tikslas – nustatyti Baltijos šalių mokesčių ir fiskalinės politikos įtaką ekonominiams procesams ir kiekybiškai įvertinti fiskalinės politikos priemonių poveikį makroekonominiams rodikliams. Šiame darbe buvo tirti svarbiausių fiskalinės politikos priemonių – pagrindinių mokesčių, valdžios sektoriaus investicijų ir visų išlaidų poveikis BVP, užimtiesiems, investicijoms ir palūkanų normoms. Pasitelkus vieną populiariausių fiskalinės politikos efektams tirti taikomų metodų – struktūrinius vektorinius autoregresinius modelius (SVAR) – buvo prieita prie tokių išvadų: skirtingų mokesčių šokai nevienodai veikia Baltijos šalių makroekonominius rodiklius. Darbo mokesčių didinimas neigiamai veikia BVP ir užimtumą visose ekonomikose; bet netiesioginių mokesčių didinimas teigiamai veikia BVP Latvijoje ir Estijoje, ir tik Lietuvoje poveikis yra neigiamas. Tik Lietuvoje buvo gauti stabilūs rezultatai apie neigiamą pelno mokesčių poveikį ekonomikai. Latvijoje ir Estijoje poveikio efektai varijuoja priklausomai nuo SVAR modelio kintamųjų sudėties. Rezultatai rodo, kad valdžios sektoriaus išlaidų didinimas lemia BVP, užimtumo ir tiesioginių investicijų mažėjimą Lietuvoje ir Estijoje. Latvijoje neigiama poveikio įtaka yra mažiau reikšminga. Kita vertus, valdžios sektoriaus investicijos turi teigiamą poveikį ekonomikos procesams visose trijose ekonomikose. Palūkanų normos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The object of this dissertation is the evaluation of the effectiveness of fiscal policy as stabilizing tools in the Baltic countries. The aim of the research is to evaluate the effects of tax and fiscal policies on such Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian macroeconomic variables as gross domestic product, employment, foreign direct investment and interest rates. Structural Vector Auto Regressive model (SVAR) has been employed for the analysis. Results of the research suggest that tax shocks may have different effects in different countries: labour tax increases adversely affect output and employment in all economies. It is only Lithuania where indirect tax increases negatively affect output while in Latvia and Estonia indirect tax shocks effects are positive. Persistent results of the negative corporate income tax effects on macroeconomic variables were obtained only in Lithuania as well, results in Latvia and Estonia vary depending on the SVAR variable composition. The results show that the increase in government spending leads to GDP, employment and foreign direct investment decline in Estonia and Lithuania, while in Latvia the negative impact is less significant. On the other hand, government investment has a positive impact on macroeconomic variables in all three economies. Interest rates are relatively insensitive to fiscal shocks in all Baltic countries, and this may be explained by the high degree of economic openness and dependence on global market fluctuations.

The object of this dissertation is the evaluation of the effectiveness of fiscal policy as stabilizing tools in the Baltic countries. The aim of the research is to evaluate the effects of tax and fiscal policies on such Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian macroeconomic variables as gross domestic product, employment, foreign direct investment and interest rates. Structural Vector Auto Regressive mode (SVAR) has been employed for the analysis. Results of the research suggest that tax shocks may have different effects in different countries: labour tax increases adversely affect output and employment in all economies. It is only Lithuania where indirect tax increases negatively affect output while in Latvia and Estonia indirect tax shocks effects are positive. Persistent results of the negative corporate income tax effects on macroeconomic variables were obtained only in Lithuania as well, results in Latvia and Estonia vary depending on the SVAR variable composition. The results show that the increase in government spending leads to GDP, employment and foreign direct investment decline in Estonia and Lithuania, while in Latvia the negative impact is less significant. On the other hand, public investment has a positive impact on macroeconomic variables in all three economies. Interest rates are relatively insensitive to fiscal shocks in all Baltic countries, and this may be explained by the high degree of economic openness and dependence on global market fluctuations. / Disertacijoje tiriama fiskalinės politikos įtaka Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos makroekonominiam stabilumui. Disertacijos tikslas – nustatyti Baltijos šalių mokesčių ir fiskalinės politikos įtaką ekonominiams procesams ir kiekybiškai įvertinti fiskalinės politikos priemonių poveikį makroekonominiams rodikliams. Šiame darbe buvo tirti svarbiausių fiskalinės politikos priemonių – pagrindinių mokesčių, valdžios sektoriaus investicijų ir visų išlaidų poveikis BVP, užimtiesiems, investicijoms ir palūkanų normoms. Pasitelkus vieną populiariausių fiskalinės politikos efektams tirti taikomų metodų – struktūrinius vektorinius autoregresinius modelius (SVAR) – buvo prieita prie tokių išvadų: skirtingų mokesčių šokai nevienodai veikia Baltijos šalių makroekonominius rodiklius. Darbo mokesčių didinimas neigiamai veikia BVP ir užimtumą visose ekonomikose; bet netiesioginių mokesčių didinimas teigiamai veikia BVP Latvijoje ir Estijoje, ir tik Lietuvoje poveikis yra neigiamas. Tik Lietuvoje buvo gauti stabilūs rezultatai apie neigiamą pelno mokesčių poveikį ekonomikai. Latvijoje ir Estijoje poveikio efektai varijuoja priklausomai nuo SVAR modelio kintamųjų sudėties. Rezultatai rodo, kad valdžios sektoriaus išlaidų didinimas lemia BVP, užimtumo ir tiesioginių investicijų mažėjimą Lietuvoje ir Estijoje. Latvijoje neigiama poveikio įtaka yra mažiau reikšminga. Kita vertus, valdžios sektoriaus investicijos turi teigiamą poveikį ekonomikos procesams visose trijose ekonomikose. Palūkanų normos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]

Au cours de ces dernières années, les banques centrales principales ont adopté de nouvelles politiques monétaires considérées comme étant des politiques non conventionnelles. Ces politiques ont pour objectif de relancer la croissance économique et de maîtriser l’inflation par l’intermédiaire du marché obligataire. Dans ce travail de recherche, nous étudions l’impact de ces nouvelles pratiques monétaires sur les marchés financiers. Plus précisément, nous essayons d’explorer l’évolution du marché boursier face à la mise en œuvre de l’assouplissement quantitatif et de détecter les canaux de transmission de cette stratégie aux cours boursiers. / During the last few years, major central banks have adopted new monetary policies that were considered unconventional policies. These new measures aim to boost economic growth and control inflation through the bond market. In this research the main objective is to study the impact of these new monetary practices on the financial markets. More specifically, this dissertation tries to explore the stock market's evolution in the face of the implementation of quantitative easing and to detect the transmission channels of this strategy to stock prices.

This thesis deals with analyses of thermoplastic welded joints. Experiments were performed, in which the not-welded specimens and specimens with cruciform welded joints were tested by tensile and three-point bending test. For these measurements, polypropylene and polyethylene specimens were used. Afterwards, the analyses of specimen models were made in the ANSYS programme. The results of the analyses were compared with figures of the analytic calculations and measurements.

Cette thèse est pour le but final d’estimer avec succès un indice d’inflation sous-jacente donnant les meilleures prévisions de l’inflation au Vietnam. D’un point de vue méthodologie, cette thèse s’appuie sur les démarches qualitatives afin de mesurer un indice d’inflation sous-jacente pour l’économie vietnamienne. Les différentes méthodes pour mesurer l’inflation sous-jacente ont été utilisées. La structure de cette thèse est établie en accord étroitement avec nos objectifs de recherche. L’introduction générale présente un aperçu général du sujet de recherche. Le chapitre 1 est à l’appui sur l’explication de la nature de l’inflation sous-jacente. Les chapitres 2 et 3 portent sur les mesures de l’inflation sous-jacente et les applications dans le cas du Vietnam. Les mesures statistiques – qui sont familière dans les banques centrales à travers le monde – sont reportées dans le chapitre 2. Le chapitre 3 présente les modèles économétriques qui aident à estimer l’inflation sous-jacente (le modèle SVAR de Quad-Vahey, le modèle à tendances communes et le modèle à composantes inobservables). Chaque mesure est également étudiée et reportée dans le processus suivant : d’abord, la notion d’inflation sous-jacente ; puis, la littérature de base de cette notion d’inflation sous-jacente ; ensuite, les techniques d’estimation de l’inflation sous-jacente et enfin, l’application de cette mesure dans le cas du Vietnam. Les indices d’inflation sous-jacente obtenus aux chapitres 2 et 3 sont examinés, analysés et comparés les uns aux autres. Les tests sont reportés dans le chapitre 4. La conclusion générale résume les résultats finaux de ce travail de recherche.Le résultat officiel de ce travail est un ensemble de dix indices d’inflation sous-jacente qui satisfont à toutes les propriétés attendues et qui semblent optimaux pour la prévision d’inflation. Un autre résultat qui va au-delà de nos attentes, est que parmi ces dix indices, l’un d’entre eux possède un double fonction, à savoir un indice prédictif de l’inflation et un indice de référence de l’inflation. Cet indice possède un pouvoir prédictif élevé et semble pouvoir être largement accepté par le grand publie comme leur indice de référence. Un autre apport supplémentaire de cette thèse est les remarques concernant la technique d’estimation de l’inflation sous-jacente appropriée dans le cas du Vietnam. / This thesis focuses on concepts, structures and evaluation of core inflation index for the Vietnam economy. The final purpose of the research is to estimate the core inflation index which enable to provide the best prediction of the Vietnam inflation. From the point of view of methodology, the thesis highlights on the qualitative approaches in order to measure the core inflation index for the Vietnam economy. The different methods have been used as follows: First, the pure statistical measurements such as trimmed mean, exclusion, median, weighted median and reduced - weighted average... and a more sophisticated method, i.e. the dynamic factor model. This model helps to capture the dynamic of an underlying factor which generates the tendency of inflation. Secondly, the three econometric models include SVAR model developed by Quah-Vahey, common trend model and unobservable components model. These models facilitate to better integrate the macroeconomic theory into measurement of core inflation. The later model is selected to overcome the disadvantages of the former one.The structure of the thesis is established in accordance with our research objectives. The introduction presents a brief overview of the research subject. The first chapter discusses the core inflation nature. The chapters 2 and 3 analyze the core inflation measurements and their applications in the case of Vietnam. The statistic measures that are more familiar with central banks in the world are presented in the chapter 2. The third one presents in details the three econometric models. Each measure is studied and presented in the following process: (i) the notion of core inflation, (ii) its theorical background (iii) the estimation techniques and (iv) the application of these measures into the Vietnam data.The obtained core inflation indexes are examined, analyzed and compared to each other. Its results are reported in the chapter 4. The general conclusion sums up the final results of this research. The official result of the study is a set of ten core inflation indexes which responds all the expected properties and seem optimal for the inflation forecasts. Another result that goes beyond our expectation is that one of these ten indexes has a dual function i.e. a good predictor of inflation and a public index of inflation. A supplementary contribution of this thesis is a list of important remarks concerning the estimation technique of core inflation that is applicable in the case of Vietnam.

[pt] É consenso na teoria econômica que o aumento dos termos de troca leva a uma apreciação da taxa de câmbio real. No entanto, durante o período recente da pandemia do COVID-19, essa relação parece ter sido interrompida, pois houve um aumento significativo nos preços das commodities, mas as taxas de câmbio reais de vários países não se valorizaram correspondentemente. O objetivo deste trabalho de pesquisa é examinar as razões para esse desvio da correlação estabelecida. Eu estimo vários SVARs para países exportadores de commodities com um esquema recursivo de identificação em blocos e concluo que outros choques estruturais além do de commodities explicaram a depreciação da taxa de câmbio real no período da pandemia. Em 2020, o risco global foi o principal fator responsável pela depreciação da taxa de câmbio, enquanto em 2021 o alto risco-país, especialmente para os países emergentes, e o baixo nível da taxa de juros doméstica aparecem como os principais responsáveis por essa quebra. / [en] It is a consensus in economic theory that the increase in the terms of trade leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate. However, during the recent period of the COVID-19 pandemic, this relationship appears to have been disrupted, as there has been a significant rise in commodity prices but the real exchange rates of many countries have not appreciated correspondingly. The aim of this M.Sc. Thesis is to examine the reasons for this deviation from the established correlation. I estimate several SVARs for commodity exporting countries with a recursive block identification scheme and conclude that structural shocks other than the commodity one explained the real exchange rate depreciation in the pandemic period. In 2020, the global risk was the main factor responsible for depreciating the exchange rate, while in 2021 the high country risk, specially for emerging countries, and the low level of the domestic interest rate appear as the main factors responsible for this break.

Studien syftar till att undersöka hur den penningpolitiska transmissionsmekanismen, särskilt hur förändringar i styrräntan, påverkar hushållens konsumtion. Huvudsyftet som undersöks är huruvida effekten av konsumtion-förmögenhetskanalen existerar vid förändringar i styrräntan. Genom att estimera en SVAR- modell och använda impuls respons funktioner (IRF) kan vi besvara våra syften och analysera hur en chock med en standardavvikelse på styrräntan kommer att påverka hushållens konsumtionsbeteende. Vidare inaktiveras konsumtion- förmögenhetskanalen för att kunna göra en jämförelse med studiens tidigare estimat och påträffa en eventuell existens. Resultaten från studien visar att det inte finns några signifikanta indikationer på en konsumtion-förmögenhetskanal i samband med penningpolitiska åtgärder under tidsperioden från första kvartalet 1996 till fjärde kvartalet 2022. Slutsatsen av studien indikerar således att en konsumtion-förmögenhetskanal inte är den dominerande transmissionsmekanismen för att påverka hushållens konsumtion vid penningpolitiska åtgärder. / The study aims to examine how the monetary policy transmission mechanism, specifically changes in the policy interest rate, affect household consumption. The main objective investigated is whether the effect of the consumption-wealth channel exists during changes in the policy interest rate. By estimating a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model and utilizing impulse response functions (IRFs), we can address our objectives and analyze how a shock of one standard deviation in the policy interest rate will impact household consumption behaviour. Furthermore, the consumption-wealth channel is deactivated to enable a comparison with the study's previous estimates and identify any potential existence. The results of the study indicate no significant evidence of a consumption-wealth channel associated with monetary policy measures during the period from the first quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 2022. Thus, the study's conclusion suggests that the consumption-wealth channel is not the dominant transmission mechanism for influencing household consumption during monetary policy measures.