Abstract: Taiwan has limited resources graphically, so 97% of primary energy source is dependent on import. Industrial sectors are the main sources to Taiwanese economic development since the 1970s, and the oil is the base of the industries, therefore, the fluctuation of world oil price will lead to the fluctuation of domestic business cycles. Besides, Taiwanese economy has highly depended on international trade; therefore the international business cycles also have influence on the domestic business cycles. Furthermore, the international trade accounts for substantial percentage of balance of international payment. Thus, the change in the international trade will also have impact on Taiwanese economy. This paper investigates the influence of international business cycles to the Taiwanese economy. Using a structural vector-autoregressive model (SVAR model) of a small open economy (OE), our SVAR model includes industry product index (IP) of three regions (Asia, Europe, and North America), world oil price, the Taiwanese industry product index and the Taiwanese trade balance. We try to understand how these factors and their variance decompositions explain Taiwanese business cycles. We chose two periods to do the analysis¡G1974:01-1984:01 and 1985:01-2002:04. To summarize, Taiwanese business cycles were much more impacted by the factors from itself. Besides, we can also say that the impact is neither from nominal nor from real variables. Domestic shocks will be more important in explaining Taiwanese economy. Taiwan has limited resource and depends on import; however, the government will control the oil price. Therefore, we conclude that the world oil price does not have huge impact on Taiwanese economy during our studying period. Asian shocks maybe have more influence than other regions on Taiwanese economy gradually during our studying period.

Submitted by PPG Economia do desenvolvimento (economia-pg@pucrs.br) on 2018-02-28T17:55:09Z No. of bitstreams: 1 CARLOS_ MARCHIONATTI__DIS.pdf: 1459801 bytes, checksum: 85429d200a6a1593f861f6d9277c6bb5 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Caroline Xavier (caroline.xavier@pucrs.br) on 2018-03-06T14:11:06Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 CARLOS_ MARCHIONATTI__DIS.pdf: 1459801 bytes, checksum: 85429d200a6a1593f861f6d9277c6bb5 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-03-06T14:16:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 CARLOS_ MARCHIONATTI__DIS.pdf: 1459801 bytes, checksum: 85429d200a6a1593f861f6d9277c6bb5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-22 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior - CAPES / Pol?tica fiscal est? em debate nos dias atuais. Seus impactos no crescimento do PIB, infla??o, juros e taxa real de c?mbio trouxeram informa??es pelos artigos de Alesina (2010) e Cavalcanti e Vereda (2010 e 2015). Este trabalho vista extender os choques de pol?tica fiscal via gastos do governo usados no DSGE de Cavalcanti e Vereda (2015) em tr?s diferentes n?veis: federal, estadual e municipal. SVAR para a economia brasileira apresentaram novos par?metros para as tr?s esferas do DSGE proposto. Os resultados mostraram que, apesar de haver um aumento tempor?rio no PIB, uma pol?tica fiscal expansionista via aumento dos gastos p?blicos acarreta maior infla??o, maiores juros, taxa de c?mbio real apreciada e inicia uma recess?o. / Fiscal Policy is on debate nowadays. Its impacts on GDP growth, inflation, interest and real exchange rate brought insights by the works of Alesina (2010) and Cavalcanti and Vereda (2010 and 2015). This work aims to extend the fiscal policy shocks via government spending used in Cavalcanti and Vereda?s (2015) DSGE model into different levels: federal, state and city levels. SVARs for the Brazilian economy presented new parameters for all the three levels of the DSGE model proposed. The results presented showed that although there is a temporary increase on GDP level, an expansionary fiscal policy via government spending leads to higher inflation, higher interest rates, appreciated real exchange rate and starts a recession.

Disertacijoje tiriama fiskalinės politikos įtaka Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos makroekonominiam stabilumui. Disertacijos tikslas – nustatyti Baltijos šalių mokesčių ir fiskalinės politikos įtaką ekonominiams procesams ir kiekybiškai įvertinti fiskalinės politikos priemonių poveikį makroekonominiams rodikliams. Šiame darbe buvo tirti svarbiausių fiskalinės politikos priemonių – pagrindinių mokesčių, valdžios sektoriaus investicijų ir visų išlaidų poveikis BVP, užimtiesiems, investicijoms ir palūkanų normoms. Pasitelkus vieną populiariausių fiskalinės politikos efektams tirti taikomų metodų – struktūrinius vektorinius autoregresinius modelius (SVAR) – buvo prieita prie tokių išvadų: skirtingų mokesčių šokai nevienodai veikia Baltijos šalių makroekonominius rodiklius. Darbo mokesčių didinimas neigiamai veikia BVP ir užimtumą visose ekonomikose; bet netiesioginių mokesčių didinimas teigiamai veikia BVP Latvijoje ir Estijoje, ir tik Lietuvoje poveikis yra neigiamas. Tik Lietuvoje buvo gauti stabilūs rezultatai apie neigiamą pelno mokesčių poveikį ekonomikai. Latvijoje ir Estijoje poveikio efektai varijuoja priklausomai nuo SVAR modelio kintamųjų sudėties. Rezultatai rodo, kad valdžios sektoriaus išlaidų didinimas lemia BVP, užimtumo ir tiesioginių investicijų mažėjimą Lietuvoje ir Estijoje. Latvijoje neigiama poveikio įtaka yra mažiau reikšminga. Kita vertus, valdžios sektoriaus investicijos turi teigiamą poveikį ekonomikos procesams visose trijose ekonomikose. Palūkanų normos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The object of this dissertation is the evaluation of the effectiveness of fiscal policy as stabilizing tools in the Baltic countries. The aim of the research is to evaluate the effects of tax and fiscal policies on such Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian macroeconomic variables as gross domestic product, employment, foreign direct investment and interest rates. Structural Vector Auto Regressive model (SVAR) has been employed for the analysis. Results of the research suggest that tax shocks may have different effects in different countries: labour tax increases adversely affect output and employment in all economies. It is only Lithuania where indirect tax increases negatively affect output while in Latvia and Estonia indirect tax shocks effects are positive. Persistent results of the negative corporate income tax effects on macroeconomic variables were obtained only in Lithuania as well, results in Latvia and Estonia vary depending on the SVAR variable composition. The results show that the increase in government spending leads to GDP, employment and foreign direct investment decline in Estonia and Lithuania, while in Latvia the negative impact is less significant. On the other hand, government investment has a positive impact on macroeconomic variables in all three economies. Interest rates are relatively insensitive to fiscal shocks in all Baltic countries, and this may be explained by the high degree of economic openness and dependence on global market fluctuations.

Die globale Finanzkrise unterstrich die Bedeutung von makrofinanziellen Verknüpfungen für Vermögenspreisdynamiken und Konjunkturschwankungen. Bei angebotsseitigen Finanzfriktionen werden hierbei Finanzintermediäre, insbesondere ihre Bilanz und ihre Risikotragfähigkeit, als zentral erachtet. Diese Dissertation wendet verschiedene Klassen von SVAR Modellen und neueste Identifizierungsmethoden an um empirische Belege für die Rolle von Finanzintermediären für Finanzmärkte und die Realwirtschaft zu liefern. Das erste Kapitel untersucht das regimeabhängige Handelsverhalten von Finanzintermediären auf dem Öl-Futures-Markt und zeigt, dass Finanzintermediäre während Krisenzeiten preisunelastischer werden und mehr ihren eigenen Interessen folgend handeln. Die Ergebnisse deuten auf eine nichtlineare Futures-Preissetzung von Intermediären hin, was die Volatilität im Markt während Krisenzeiten signifikant erhöht. Das zweite Kapitel legt dar, dass die meisten Händlergruppen in Rohstoff-Futures-Märkten eine antizyklische Investitionsstrategie verfolgen. Das einfache SVAR Modell eignet sich für die Analyse der Handelsstrategien verschiedener Händlergruppen sowie deren Auswirkungen für die Preisvolatilität in jedweden Vermögensmärkten. Kapitel 3 identifiziert in einem einzelnen Modell sektorspezifische Kreditangebotsschocks gegenüber Firmen und Haushalten und präsentiert empirische Belege über deren Effekte für die US-Wirtschaft. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass beide Kreditangebotsschocks wesentlich zum Konjunkturverlauf während des Beobachtungszeitraums beigetragen haben, wobei Kreditangebotsschocks gegenüber Haushalten klassischen Nachfrageschocks ähneln. Das letzte Kapitel analysiert die globalen Auswirkungen des Schuldenabbaus europäischer Banken und findet, dass europäische Bankbilanzschocks Bruttokapitalzuflüsse und das Kreditwachstum in fortgeschrittenen Ökonomien mit entwickelten Finanzmärkten beeinflussen, aber nur geringfügige Effekte auf das Wirtschaftswachstum haben. / The global financial crisis has demonstrated the importance of macrofinancial linkages for asset price dynamics and business cycles. Regarding supply-side financial frictions, financial intermediaries, in particular their balance sheet and risk-bearing capacity, are considered to be pivotal. This thesis applies different classes of SVAR models and state-of-the-art identification techniques to provide empirical findings on the role of financial intermediaries in financial markets and the real economy. The first chapter studies the state-dependent trading behavior of financial intermediaries in the oil futures market and shows that intermediaries become less price-elastic and trade more according to their own demand. The findings suggest that the futures pricing of intermediaries is nonlinear which significantly raises the volatility in the market during crisis times. The second chapter demonstrates that most trader groups in commodity futures markets employ contrarian strategies. The simple SVAR model can be applied for analyzing the trading strategies of different trader groups as well as their effects for price volatility in any asset market. Chapter 3 identifies sector-specific business and household loan supply shocks in one single model and provides empirical evidence on their effects for the U.S. macroeconomy. The results show that both loan supply shocks have contributed significantly to business cycle dynamics over the sample period, with household loan supply shocks resembling classical demand shocks. The last chapter analyzes the global effects of European bank deleveraging and finds that European bank balance sheet shocks significantly affect gross capital inflows and credit growth in in advanced economies with developed financial markets, but have only minor effects on output growth.