This dissertation consists of three essays in International Trade. The first essay studies the impact of changing tariffs on the range of goods countries export to the United States. The empirical analysis shows that tariffs tend to have a statistically significant but small impact: at best 5 percent of the increasing extensive margin for 1989-1999 and 12 percent for 1996-2006 is explained by tariff reductions. This suggests the extensive margin has not amplified the impact of tariffs on trade flows to such an extent that the relatively moderate tariff reductions since WW II can explain the strong growth of world trade. The second essay investigates the sector and country determinants of the range of goods that countries export to the United States. Besides relating the traditional determinants of comparative advantage, sectors’ factor intensities interacted with countries’ factor abundance to the extensive margin in a sector, the empirical investigation includes interactions between sector-level measures of intermediate intensity and trade frictions. Consistent with hypotheses about fragmentation, the results show that closer countries and countries with lower tariffs imposed on them export a wider range of goods in sectors that have large intermediate cost shares. The impact of trade frictions is, however, far less pronounced for the more skilled-labor intensive sectors that are characterized by use of a greater range of intermediates. The third essay studies the impact of trade liberalizations on U.S. bilateral trade from 1989-2001 with a focus on the influence of exporting country liberalizations which matter when exports are produced with imported intermediates. Guided by extensions of the Eaton and Kortum (2002) model which allows for production to involve the use of imported intermediates, the essay estimates a structural equation that links U.S. bilateral trade flows to both intermediate tariffs imposed by countries exporting to the United States and U.S. tariffs. The empirical estimates suggest that especially for less developed countries their own liberalizations have been quantitatively much more important in explaining bilateral trade growth with an effect 3 times larger than the impact of U.S. liberalizations. / text

[pt] Esse artigo estuda o efeito de um choque grande e plausivelmente exógeno induzido pelo comércio sobre a desigualdade de gênero no mercado de trabalho. Nos anos 1990, o governo brasileiro decidiu reduzir as tarifas de importação, induzindo uma liberalização comercial grande e de uma vez por todas, com efeitos heterogêneos entre as economias locais. Usando Censos Decenais brasileiros, eu estimo efeitos de médio (1991-2000) e longo (1991-2010) prazos desse choque sobre os resultados do mercado de trabalho separadamente por gênero e suas consequências para a desigualdade de gênero. Eu forneço um modelo conceitual de segregação ocupacional para racionalizar os resultados. Finalmente, também examino potenciais implicações desse choque para o mercado de casamentos e a acumulação de capital humano dos indivíduos. Os resultados apontam que, no médio prazo, em regiões mais afetadas, houve um aumento no diferencial salarial por gênero e as mulheres enfrentaram proporcionalmente maior aumento no não-emprego em comparação com os homens. No longo prazo, as perdas de emprego permaneceram no setor de bens comercializáveis, mas na economia como um todo elas desapareceram, enquanto o diferencial salarial entre homens e mulheres diminuiu no setor de não comercializáveis. Além disso, tanto no médio como no longo prazo, houve um aumento na acumulação de capital humano, ao mesmo tempo em que a parcela de mulheres casadas e que têm filhos diminuiu. À luz do modelo, esses resultados enfatizam a importância de se prestar atenção não só à desigualdade salarial, mas também à distribuição desigual dos gêneros entre as ocupações. / [en] This paper studies the effect of a large and plausibly exogenous tradeinduced shock on gender inequality in the labor market. In the 1990 s, Brazilian government decided to reduce import tariffs, inducing a large, once and for all trade liberalization, with heterogeneous effects across local economies. Using Brazilian Decennial Censuses, I estimate medium (1991-2000) and long (1991-2010) term effects of this shock to labor market outcomes separately by gender and its consequences for gender inequality. I provide a conceptual model of occupational segregation to rationalize the results. Finally, I also examine potential implications of this shock to the marriage market and individuals human capital accumulation. Results point that, in the medium run, in harder hit regions there was an increase in the gender wage gap and women proportionally faced higher increase in nonemployment compared to men. In the long run, the losses in employment in the tradable sector remained, but in the as a whole economy they disappeared, while the gender wage gap in non-tradables decreased. Besides that, both in the medium and long run, there was an increase in human capital accumulation, at the same that the share of women that are married and have children decreased. In light of the model, these findings emphasize the importance of paying attention not only to the wage inequality, but also to the unequal distribution of genders between occupations.

This paper deals with Mexico’s economic history from 1982 early crisis and 1994 late one. It analysis the transit of an import substitution model and state oriented economic policy to an open market economy in a close relationship to U.S. economy and free trade agreement. This transit meant also a change in politics, after many years of PRI’s dominance. It also aim to advice about the so-called «demographic bonus», provided a slowing down of the birth rate and its consequence on further employment needs / Este trabajo tiene como objetivo la historia económica de México desde la temprana crisis de 1982 y la severa de 1994. Analiza el tránsito de un modelo de sustitución de importaciones y una política económica orientada desde el Estado hacia unaeconomía de mercado abierto en cercana relación con la economía estadounidense y los acuerdos de libre comercio. Ese tránsito también significó un cambio en la política después de muchos años de dominio del PRI. También advierte la importancia del denominado bono demográfico, derivado de la caída de la tasa de natalidad y sus consecuencias para la necesidad de generar empleo.

O objetivo desta dissertação é retomar a controvérsia em torno dos efeitos da liberalização comercial sobre o mercado de trabalho brasileiro, em especial os diferenciais de salários entre trabalhadores qualificados e não qualificados na indústria de transformação em 1995 e 1999. Após uma adaptação da decomposição de Oaxaca-Blinder (OB), encontramos evidências, para o Brasil como um todo e para a região metropolitana de São Paulo, de que o diferencial de salário aumentou, em benefício dos trabalhadores qualificados. Considerando a hipótese de que o Brasil é um país com abundância de trabalho não qualificado e intensivo neste fator, este resultado é oposto à premissa teórica do modelo Heckscher-Ohlin e Stolper-Samuelson (HOS) e suas variantes, de que a abertura de um país em desenvolvimento, ou intensivo em trabalho não qualificado, tende a diminuir a desigualdade. Do outro lado, encontramos evidências para a região metropolitana de Recife, de que o diferencial salarial entre trabalhadores qualificados e não qualificados diminuiu após a liberalização comercial, corroborando com a premissa teórica do modelo HOS e suas variantes. Entretanto, este resultado não deve, evidentemente, ser estendido para o Brasil, ilustrando assim diferenças regionais e estruturais não negligenciáveis do mercado de trabalho por região da Federação. / The objective of this MA Dissertation was to take up again the controversy of the effects of trade liberalization in Brazilian labor market, specially the wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers in the industry in 1995 and 1999. After an adaptation of Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition (OB), it was found evidence in Brazil as a whole and in Sao Paulo metropolitan area, that wage differential increased for the benefit of skilled workers. On one hand, supposing that Brazil is an economy characterized by unskilled workers abundance which are intensively used, this result is contrary to the premise theory of Heckscher-Ohlin and Stolper-Samuelson (HOS) model and their variants that defends that trade liberalization in developing country, or unskilled worker intensive countries, has a tendency to reduce inequality. On the other hand, it was found evidence in Recife metropolitan area that wage differential between skilled and unskilled workers has reduced after trade liberalization, corroborating with the theory premise of HOS model and their variants. However, this result cannot be extended to Brazil, illustrating, therefore, its labor markets regional and structural differences.

Cette thèse étudie les implications du commerce international sur l'innovation en considérant l'enjeu de l'interdépendance spatiale. En e et, les mécanismes par lesquels le commerce international affecte l'innovation reposent sur la mise en évidence de facteurs qui, parce qu'ils sont à l'origine de rendements croissants, représentent de véritables moteurs de la croissance. Or le processus d'accumulation de ces facteurs repose sur des effets dont l'intensité est contrainte par l'espace. D'abord, les flux commerciaux qui sont supposés transmettre la technologie entre les pays sont spatialement interdépendants. Ensuite, les résultats mis en avant dans littérature existante captent seulement l'effet direct des échanges commerciaux sur l'innovation. Toutefois il est possible qu'un pays bénéficie de la technologie d'un autre pays sans qu'un échange commercial ait lieu entre les deux pays. Il semble donc opportun de réexaminer la relation entre le commerce international et l'innovation dans un contexte d'interdépendance spatiale. A cet effet, nous nous sommes appuyés sur les modèles de croissance endogène pour dériver deux modèles structurels spatiaux permettant de rendre compte de l'interdépendance. L'analyse empirique de ces modèles fait ressortir qu'en plus des variables traditionnelles telles que les R&D et le capital humain, les externalités contribuent fortement à la hausse de productivité et que celles-ci sont particulièrement importantes pour les pays à faible revenu. De plus, La libéralisation commerciale, en augmentant la concurrence, favorise l'innovation dans les pays à revenu élevé. En revanche, elle entraine une baisse de celle-ci dans les pays à faible revenu. Ces résultats renforcent l'idée que, au moins dans le cas des pays avancés, l'ouverture commerciale accroît l'innovation et la croissance grâce à la concurrence. / This thesis studies the consequences for innovation of international trade allowing for spatial interdependence. Indeed, the mechanisms through which international trade affects innovation are based on highlighting factors that, because they are the source of increasing returns, represent real engines of the growth. Yet, the accumulation process of these factors depends on effects which are constraints in space .First, trade flows by which technology is supposed to transmit between countries are interdependent. Second, the results highlighted in existing literature capture only the direct effect of trade on innovation. However, it is possible that a country benefits technology from an another country without any trade between the two countries. It seems convenient to revise the relation between international trade and innovation in the context of spatial interdependence. Based on endogenous growth models, we derive two spatial structural models in order to take into account spatial interdependence. The empirical analysis of spatial models revealed that in addition to traditional variables such as R&D and human capital, externalities contribute strongly to productivity growth and these externalities are especially important for low-income countries. Regarding competition, the effects are mixed. Trade liberalization, by increasing competition, promotes innovation in developped countries. However, it reduces innovation in low-income countries.

Nowadays, being a member of the World Trade Organization for a country means becoming an active participant of the world trade relations. On May 16, 2008, Ukraine officially became the 152th member-country of the WTO. The thesis describes the process of Ukraine's acceptance to the WTO that lasted for more than fourteen years. Moreover, in the work it is analyzed Ukraine's gains and losses after the two-year WTO membership. The study focuses on strength and weaknesses of the WTO membership in common and for Ukraine specifically.

The purpose of this paper is to test the effects of labor cost, openness, and demand side variables on employment for the case of Turkey using the panel data of private manufacturing industry at three digit level for 25 sectors for the period of 1973-2001. We use a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model, which allows for cross-sectoral heterogeneity. The estimation results show that higher growth is more effective in stimulating employment compared to lower labor costs. The reliance of Turkey and many developing countries on labor market flexibility and openness as the unique tools of employment policy reflects a pro-capital incomes policy bias rather than a necessity. The results confirm the Keynesian emphasis on demand-side policies to fight against unemployment. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

This diploma thesis studies the influence of trade liberalization on the sources of the economic growth of Brazil. The theoretical part of this work presents some definitions of economic growth and characteristics from two basic economic growth models: the Solow model and the endogenous growth model. Regarding trade liberalization, some international trade theories are presented in this thesis, including the basis of protectionist measures, which are frequently implemented around the world. The practical part of this work analyzes the course of the Brazilian economy throughout different periods, where the GDP growth rate, sources of economic growth and the presence of protectionist policies are taking into account. Later on, the thesis reviews the trade liberalization process that Brazil experimented in the 1990s and how this process influenced the performance of the Brazilian GDP. For long time, the topics of positive effects of free international trade and the unavoidable globalization process have been on the table. Brazil enjoys conditions that are given for economic success. However, the question is whether Brazil will manage to make full use of these favorable conditions and handle the obstacles that come up along the way to its development, while enforcing free international trade and promoting its full liberalization aiming to positively influence economic growth.

[pt] Embora comércio internacional e práticas organizacionais sejam conhecidos determinantes da produtividade de firmas, a evidência empírica sobre a relação entre ambos é escassa. Este artigo explora variação exógena crível em redução tarifárias em setores da indústria para mostrar que firmas no Brasil, após o choque, são menos organizadas em termos de hierarquias. Consistente com a literatura de hierarquias baseadas em conhecimento, aumento de concorrência estrangeira reduz significativamente a parcela de gerentes e o número de camadas organizacionais em uma firma. Além disso, nós encontramos movimentos composicionais importantes dentro dos setores: apesar de possuírem tamanhos similares, firmas entrantes possuem menos gerentes e camadas do que as que deixam o mercado. Usando dados abrangentes com identificação mais crível que trabalhos anteriores na literatura, nosso artigo documenta fatos estilizados da organização de firmas em um país subdesenvolvido, assim como contribui para o estudo de um determinante potencialmente importante da produtividade no agregado. / [en] While it is known that international trade and organizational practices are determinants of firm productivity, empirical evidence on their relation to each other is scarce. This paper explores credible exogenous variation in tariff reductions across manufacturing sectors to show that firms in Brazil are less structured in terms of hierarchies following the shock. Consistent with the literature on knowledge-based hierarchies, increased foreign competition reduces significantly the share of managers and the number of organizational layers on a firm. Besides, we find notable compositional movements within sectors: although similarly sized, entrant firms have fewer managers and layers than leavers. By using comprehensive data with more credible identification than previous work in the literature, our paper documents stylized facts on firms organization in a developing country, as well as contributes to the study of a potentially important determinant of aggregate productivity.

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