Negli anni ’80, paesi in via di sviluppo (DCs) e paesi meno sviluppati (PMS) hanno subito cambiamenti strutturali, muovendosi da politiche di sostituzione di importazione a strategie di liberalizzazione. Questi paesi hanno assistito ad una crescita dinamica risultata dall’aumento della produttività dovuto alla maggiore esposizione delle industrie locali alla concorrenza, dall'aumento delle importazioni tecnologiche incarnate in capitale e in beni intermedi, e ad una maggiore diffusione di conoscenze e informazioni. Questo lavoro esamina come liberalizzazione commerciale ed aggiornamento tecnologico abbiano influito sull’occupazione in paesi DCs e PMS, e studia il fenomeno del cambiamento tecnologico skill biased. Si esaminano il settore manifatturiero turco tra il 1980-2001 e quello etiope tra il 1996-2004. Questo studio, basato sul System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM-SYS), implementa un quadro dinamico di due equazioni che raffigurano tendenze occupazionali a livello enterprise per lavoratori qualificati e non qualificati. I risultati confermano l'aspettativa teorica che DCs e LDC affrontano fenomeni di skill-biased technological change e incrementano il potere d’importazione di tecnologia, aumentando il divario d’occupazione tra lavoratori qualificati e non qualificati. Tuttavia, le cause specifiche di skill-bias e la portata del loro effetto possono variare in base a diverse infrastrutture istituzionali e capacità nazionali. / In the 1980's developing countries (DCs) and least developed countries (LDCs) underwent structural changes, moving from import substitution policies to liberalization strategies. These countries witnessed a dynamic growth effect that emerges from productivity growth due to increased exposure of local industries to competition, increased technological imports embodied in capital and intermediate goods, and to the transfer of knowledge. This work looks into the employment impact of trade liberalization and technological upgrading in DCs and LDCs, and studies the phenomenon of skill biased technological change in those countries. It takes the case of the Turkish manufacturing sector for the period 1980 - 2001, and the case of the Ethiopian manufacturing sector for the period 1996 - 2004. It deploys System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM-SYS) procedure to this effect, implementing a two-equation dynamic framework that depicts enterprise-level employment trends separately for skilled and unskilled workers. The results confirm the theoretical expectation that DCs and LDCs face the phenomena of skill-biased technological change and skill-enhancing technology import, both leading to increasing the employment gap between skilled and unskilled workers. However, the specific determinants of skill bias and the size of their effect can differ due to diverse institutional infrastructures and national capabilities.

The increasing frequency and economic losses from natural disasters within the framework of decreasing agricultural prices and trade liberalization is becoming crucial in increasing poverty in the Mexican rural economy. During the past two decades, the governmental withdrawal from supporting the agricultural sector with investments in physical, financial and logistic instruments continues to stress agricultural livelihoods, as current private mechanisms have not replaced them effectively. It has contributed to making the agricultural sector particularly vulnerable to a number of hazards as it has weakened economic agents' response and impeded assets accumulation. This dissertation identifies economic vulnerability to natural and economic hazards in order to assess public and private coping capacity, and provides a conceptual framework and economic theory that supports the overall approach and employed methodologies. It is based on quantitative and qualitative research methods, and makes use of econometric analysis and stakeholders' views aimed at finding feasible solutions. Further, this dissertation offers a spatial model that can support policy-decision-making for the creation of differential investments in productive infrastructure, as well as financial instruments to reduce current vulnerability and poverty throughout the national territory. During the past two decades, over 80% of total economic losses from weather-related disasters occurred in the agricultural sector. In the same period, mean weighted agricultural prices have decreased over 50% in real terms, and since 1996 a trade deficit has persisted in this sector. Currently, the insufficient credit access, low coverage of crop insurance, as well as the near lack of investments to expand irrigation and further productive infrastructure is sharpening the vulnerability of rural livelihoods. These facts explain why this sector produces only 4% of the GDP despite employing over 20% of the national workforce. These facts undermine farmers' expectations of future incomes within the community, stimulating rural-urban out migration, which usually cannot be absorbed by the urban economy in sight of the modest industrial dynamism of the recent years. This leads to the enlargement of the informal sector in large cities and migratory flows to abroad, among others. (author's abstract)

The availability of firm level data in international trade started a very quickly developing theoretical literature that focused on the micro evidence and understanding its implications for aggregate productivity and welfare. The new models were dealing with individual firm characteristics determining entry and exit from foreign markets and the different ways in which firms chose to enter. Two of the main features of this literature are that firms have heterogeneous productivities and need to pay a fixed costs in order to enter both their home and foreign markets. As a result, some do not find it optimal to export and it is those with higher productivity that do. This thesis is comprised of three theoretical papers (chapters) in which the models are with firms with heterogeneous productivities and there is steady state economic growth. The purpose in all three papers has been to generate results that are already established empirical facts but that have not been incorporated in the theoretical trade and growth literature. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, 2011

Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-08T14:45:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 1860939 bytes, checksum: 3f659397a5b7313194bc59829ef3ca6c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-10-04 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / We analyzed the trade liberalization, the level of employment and industrial production between 1990 and 2008. In 1980, the Substitution of Imports Model (MSI) has suffered from the delayed effects of three major adverse shocks that have strangled the balance of payments causing stagflation, it was clear the MSI had been exhausted. The model adopted in 1990, the Washington Consensus Model preaches the trade and financial liberalization as a basis for an economy of solid macroeconomic fundamentals, and its principles were put into practice in Brazil by PICE. Regarding industry, the period between 1990 and 2008 was a period of extraordinary gains in productivity. The relationship between industrial production and unemployment total was positive between 1990 and 2008 as predicted by Okun's Law adapted to the study of the industry. The SS theorem showed that in order to encourage the agricultural sector should be to facilitate the import of machinery and to encourage the industrial sector must become the manpower more productive and cheaper. The Blanchard model demonstrated how the trade unions react to structural changes in the economy. During the economic liberalization and under a framework of external shocks, the strength of unions has declined over the 1980s. Because the process of economic liberalization has brought an increase in the natural unemployment, unions have lost the strength to defend workers' interests effectively. The Lula government made an improvement in the indicators of employment and industrial production. There is no denying that the economy stable has been the best legacy that the previous government left for the Lula administration. However, it is known today that the cost of stabilization policy and trade liberalization in the 1990s could have been shorter if the fear of repeating the failures observed in the very historical and other countries, when under pressure of crisis international economic, had not led to extreme measures to curb demand. / Analisou-se a liberalização comercial, o nível de emprego e a produção industrial no período entre 1990 e 2008. Em 1980, o Modelo de Substituição de Importações (MSI) sofreu com os efeitos retardados de três grandes choques adversos que estrangularam a balança de pagamentos gerando estagflação. Era evidente o MSI tinha se esgotado. O modelo adotado em 1990, o Modelo do Consenso de Washington, prega a liberalização comercial e financeira como base para uma economia de fundamentos macroeconômicos sólidos. Seus princípios foram postos em prática no Brasil através da PICE. Em relação à indústria, o período entre 1990 e 2008 foi um período de ganho extraordinário de produtividade. A relação entre produção industrial e desemprego total mostrou-se positiva entre 1990 e 2008, como prediz a Lei de Okun adaptada ao estudo da indústria. O Teorema SS demonstrou que para se incentivar o setor agropecuário deve-se facilitar a importação de maquinário e para incentivar o setor industrial deve-se tornar a mão-de-obra mais produtiva e barata. O Modelo de Blanchard demonstrou como os sindicatos de trabalhadores reagem diante das mudanças estruturais da economia. Durante a liberalização econômica e sob um quadro de crises externas, a força dos sindicatos se reduziu em relação à década de 1980. Como o processo de liberalização econômica trouxe consigo uma elevação do desemprego natural, os sindicatos perderam a força para defender eficientemente os interesses dos trabalhadores. O governo Lula marcou uma melhora nos indicadores de emprego e produção industrial. Não há como negar que a economia estável foi a melhor herança que o governo passado deixou para a gestão Lula. No entanto, sabe-se hoje, que o custo da política de estabilização e da liberalização comercial da década de 1990 poderia ter sido menor, caso o medo de se repetir os fracassos observados no próprio histórico e de outros países, quando sob pressão das crises econômicas internacionais, não tivesse levado a medidas extremas de contenção de demanda.

A presente tese analisa a configuração, a reestruturação e a dinâmica do setor de celulose e papel no Brasil (em especial o seu mercado de trabalho), mostrando que esses processos foram distintos para as indústrias desse setor, que são: a indústria de celulose, a indústria de papéis e a indústria de artefatos de papéis. A tese está organizada em quatro capítulos, incluindo a Introdução. O segundo capítulo, Análise do processo de configuração do setor de celulose e papel no Brasil, destaca como a conduta das empresas multinacionais, as políticas públicas e o dinamismo dos mercados doméstico e externo geram evoluções e dinâmicas distintas para as indústrias desse setor, desde sua origem até 2009, e implicaram em suas distintas inserções na Divisão Internacional do Trabalho - DIT ao longo do tempo. Demonstra-se que a configuração dessas indústrias foi diferenciada nos últimos cinquenta anos, sendo que a expansão da indústria de celulose foi para atender o mercado internacional e as indústrias de papéis e artefatos de papéis são mais centralizadas em atender o mercado doméstico em resposta à forma como os países se organizaram dentro da DIT. O terceiro capítulo, Impactos da reestruturação do setor de celulose e papel no Brasil sobre o desempenho de suas indústrias, usou dados em painel e estimou equações visando identificar se as variáveis de estrutura e de abertura comercial tiveram influência sobre o desempenho das indústrias do setor no período de 1986 a 2007 com base nos dados da PIA IBGE, da BRACELPA e do Sistema ALICE-Web. Pode-se concluir que a variável de concentração de mercado (HHI) teve impacto positivo sobre a medida de desempenho margem preço-custo; o aumento na taxa de importação tem relação negativa com a margem preço-custo; e a origem do capital tem relação positiva com a medida de desempenho considerada. O quarto artigo, Impactos da liberalização comercial e da reestruturação industrial sobre o mercado de trabalho do setor de celulose e papel no Brasil, analisa a dinâmica do mercado de trabalho desse setor entre 1996 e 2008 usando dados da RAIS. Verificou-se: 1) aumento no número de empregados no setor de celulose e papel nesse período, mas redução desse número para a indústria de celulose e para a indústria de papéis; 2) a indústria de celulose emprega proporcionalmente mais trabalhadores com maior escolaridade e idade do que a indústria de artefatos de papéis; 3) os salários pagos na indústria de celulose foram maiores que nas outras duas indústrias e no setor de celulose e papel como um todo; 4) predomínio do uso da mão de obra masculina e diferencial salarial entre homens e mulheres nas três indústrias, entretanto, esse diferencial foi menor na indústria de celulose em 2008; 5) a maioria das variáveis explicativas propostas para analisar o impacto sobre os salários apresentou o sinal esperado nas regressões. As variáveis abertura comercial, proporção de mulheres em relação aos homens e escolaridade média dos trabalhadores foram as que apresentaram melhor significância estatística. As duas primeiras atuam para reduzir o salário e a última para aumentá-lo. / The present thesis analyzes the configuration, the restructuring and the dynamics of the pulp and paper sector in Brazil (paying a special attention to its labor market), showing that these processes were different to the industries of this sector: the industry of pulp, industry of papers and industry of paper-made products. The thesis is organized in four chapters, including the Introduction. The second, Analysis of configuration process of pulp and paper sector in Brazil, highlights how the conduct of multinational companies, the public policies and the dynamism of domestic and external markets generate distinct evolutions and dynamics for the three industries inside the pulp and paper sector in Brazil since the origin of this sector until 2009 and implicated in distinct insertions of these industries in the International Work Division - DIT along time. It is demonstrated that the configuration of these industries was differentiated during the last fifty years, pointing out the expansion of pulp industry, from 1970 on, to attend the international market and the paper and paper artifacts industries are more focused in attending the domestic market in response to the way the countries organized themselves inside DIT. The third chapter, Impacts of pulp and paper sector´s restructuring in Brazil on the performance of its industries, organized data in panel and run equation to determine if the variables of structure and commercial openness that had influence the performance of industries under analysis. The period of time considered was from 1986 to 2007 and data utilized came from PIA IBGE, from BRACELPA and from Alice-Web System. It can be concluded that the variable of market concentration (HHI) had positive impact on the performance measure cost-price margin; the increase in the importation rate has negative relation with price-cost margin; and the capital´s origin has positive relation with the performance measure considered. The fourth chapter, Impacts of trade liberalization and industrial reorganization the market place of pulp and paper sector in Brazil, analyses the labor market dynamics of this sector between 1996 and 2008 using data from RAIS. The main findings are: 1) increase in the number of employees of the pulp and paper sector in this period, but reduction of this number to the pulp industry and to the paper industry; 2) the pulp industry employs proportionally more workers with higher scholarity and age than the paper-made products industry; 3) salaries paid in the pulp industry were higher than in the other two industries and in the pulp and paper sector as a whole; 4) predominance of masculine labor force and salary differential between men and women in the three industries, however, this differential was lower in the pulp industry in 2008; 5) the majority of the explicative variables proposed to analyze the impact on the salaries presented the expected signal in regressions. The variables commercial openness, proportion of women in relation to men and workers average scholarity were the ones that presented better statistic significance. The first two act to reduce salaries and the third one to increase salaries.

Esta tese aborda o desenvolvimento da regulação internacional sobre o comércio de serviços educacionais, em especial nos acordos preferenciais de comércio de Austrália, Chile, China, Cingapura, Estados Unidos, Índia e União Europeia. O seu objetivo foi avaliar o atual nível de liberalização comercial da educação superior no plano global, de modo que sua compatibilidade com o direito à educação pudesse ser criticamente analisada, assim como os seus possíveis impactos sobre a regulação da educação superior no Brasil. Para tanto, a pesquisa começa pela realização de entrevistas com atores que acompanham o processo de comercialização da educação superior no Brasil. Os passos seguintes envolvem a compreensão do funcionamento das disciplinas internacionais sobre o comércio de serviços, da formulação das posições no processo negociador e, finalmente, dos compromissos em serviços de educação superior em acordos preferenciais de comércio. Uma primeira hipótese é de que, mesmo sem acordos de comércio, o mercado brasileiro já se encontra significativamente liberalizado no que diz respeito aos investimentos estrangeiros em educação superior, sem qualquer restrição ao ingresso de capital internacional. Ainda assim, a regulação internacional do comércio de serviços aprofundaria esse processo a partir da ideia de consolidação do marco regulatório liberal doméstico e de mecanismos que conduzem à aceleração do processo de liberalização comercial. / This thesis analyses the development of international regulation on trade in educational services, especially in preferential trade agreements signed by Australia, Chile, China, Singapore, United States, India and the European Union. The goal was to determine a parameter of the current global level of trade liberalization on higher education, so that the compatibility between trade agreements and the right to education could be critically examined, as well as their possible impacts on the regulation of higher education in Brazil. Therefore, the research began by conducting interviews with professionals that accompany the commercialization process in the Brazilian higher education sector. The following steps involved understanding the operation of international disciplines on trade in services, the formulation of positions in the negotiating process, and finally, the commitments on higher education services in preferential trade agreements. A first hypothesis is that, even without trade agreements, the Brazilian market is already significantly liberalized regarding foreign investment on higher education, without any restriction on the inflow of international capital. Even so, international regulation on trade in services would deepen this process from an idea of consolidation of a liberal domestic regulatory framework and mechanisms leading to accelerate trade liberalization process.

Bien que la littérature théorique et empirique étudiant les effets de l’OMC et d’une libéralisation commerciale sur les performances économiques des pays et sur le bien-être soit riche, il existe une absence de consensus quant aux liens commerce-croissance-pauvreté. Les liens ne sont ni simples, ni automatiques et requièrent d’être traités avec précaution, tout en prenant en compte les spécificités nationales et le contexte particulier de chaque pays. D’où l’attention particulière apportée à l’économie libanaise, une économie en reconstruction, caractérisée entre autres par un déficit commercial chronique et engagée depuis 1999 dans le deuxième plus long processus d’adhésion à l’OMC, qui semble loin d’être achevé. Pour examiner les impacts potentiels de l’adhésion du pays à l’OMC sur les grandeurs macroéconomiques, un modèle d’équilibre général calculable dynamique est employé, et différents scénarios sont simulés. L’analyse en équilibre général est combinée avec une analyse de micro-simulation comptable, évaluant les impacts micro-économiques sur les différentes catégories des ménages. Les résultats suggèrent que l’adhésion du pays à l’OMC entraînerait une évolution plus favorable des grandeurs macro-économiques par rapport au scénario de base (surtout lorsqu’un mécanisme d’augmentation de la productivité totale des facteurs entre en jeu). Une adhésion permettrait également une baisse de la pauvreté et des inégalités, en améliorant la situation des travailleurs non qualifiés. / Although the theoretical and empirical literature studying the effects of the WTO and trade liberalization on the economic performance of countries and the well-being is rich, it remains that there is a lack of consensus on the links trade-growth-poverty. The links are neither simple nor automatic and require to be treated with caution, and to take into account national specificities and the particular context of each country. Hence the special attention given to the Lebanese economy, characterized among others by a chronic trade deficit, and by the second longest WTO accession process, which dates from 1999 and seems far from over. To examine the impacts of Lebanon’s accession to the WTO on macroeconomic variables, a dynamic CGE model is used, and different scenarios are simulated. Using a sequential approach, the general equilibrium analysis is combined with a microsimulation analysis, evaluating the micro-economic impacts on different categories of households, poverty and inequality. The results suggest that the country's accession to the WTO leads to a more favorable economic performances compared to the baseline scenario (especially when the mechanism of the increase in total factor productivity is put into play). It also allows a reduction in poverty and inequality, by improving the situation of unskilled workers.

Magister Legum - LLM / The impact of trade policies on the pursuit of gender equality is often ignored. Recognising the link between trade and gender, this dissertation aims to enhance the capacity of policy-makers to mainstream gender in trade policy and to help identify ways for using trade to respond to women's needs in South Africa. In order to meet this objective, it analyses the impacts that trade liberalisation has had on the economy and on gender in general and in South Africa in particular. In addition, it evaluates the impacts on men and women in order to see if trade has contributed to reducing, accentuating or perpetuating gender inequality in South Africa. Findings have confirmed that Trade liberalisation has had both positive and negative impacts on women and men. But, they have also demonstrated that trade liberalisation has affected women and men differently having negative influences on the pursuit of gender equality. The research has, however, concluded that the impact of trade liberalisation on the pursuit of gender equality is influenced by other key factors. As strategy to mainstream gender in trade policies, the research suggests that policy-makers should analyse the implications for women and men of any trade policy before adopting such policy. This analysis would help him/her to see the possible imbalances of the new policy and implement policies and programmes to eradicate them. Also, it will help him/her to identify possible ways for using trade to empower women. The research is based on the idea that the elimination of the existing inequalities will put women at the same stage with men and will, therefore, contribute to women's empowerment in South Africa. / South Africa

The content of this thesis is an analysis of North-South regionalism within the American continent. Specifically, the approach of the United States as a representative of developed countries and Latin American countries as representative of developing countries to the liberalization of mutual economic relations. Chapter one deals with the issue of North-South regionalism and approaches of the most developed countries to this type of liberalization. Chapter two analyses the attitude of the U.S. and Latin American to the liberalization of their relations. Chapter three describes the approaches of concrete Latin American countries (Chile, Venezuela, Brazil) with respect to their different economic and business strategies applied in their foreign policy.

This dissertation develops a theory about the consolidation of state legitimacy given transformations in food security. Food security has moved from a national food maximization effort to the provision of food to households and individuals, regardless of the production source. This definitional change was triggered by urbanization, industrialization of agriculture and liberalization of trade. These dynamics altered the formula for balance and control of a country’s territory; as agricultural output moved into a global context, urban centers became less reliant on its periphery for sustenance and thus governments have fewer incentives to provide governance of any quality to rural areas. Hence, the expansion of industrialized production has led to an increasing volume of international food exchanges and reliance on transnational networks for food provision. This, I argue, produced a decoupling of rural and urban areas, yielding a new form of governance in the periphery, which relies on negative legitimacy and the expansion of large-scale agriculture under public-private partnerships. This dissertation challenges conventional approaches to modern state consolidation in the sense that the monopoly of violence in the territory is no longer the core of state legitimacy. Rather, alternatives now exist that make possible the consolidation of state political power. Methodologically, this dissertation follows the critical case study approach. While it may sacrifice some external validity in terms of generalizability, it maximizes internal validity through careful process tracing. By tracing the trajectory of rural areas for state formation, agricultural policies, the concept of rural citizen and the interaction between rural and urban areas, this dissertation expresses in-depth knowledge of policy outcomes due to the change in food security. Utilizing findings from Colombia, before and after the 1990´s, this dissertation illustrates the impacts of a change in the concept of food security and its effects on the administrative capacity in rural areas. Findings indicate that large scale agricultural policies and violence concentrated rural land ownership into export productive commodities and altered the structure of rural governance. While food security initiatives and policies has been a boon to world health, this dissertation illustrates how it has also brought about changes in state consolidation.