The impact of rare disasters on equity premium and term premium in a New Keynesian DSGE model is explored in the thesis. Andreasen's (2012) model with Epstein-Zin preferences, bonds and a rare disaster shock in total factor productivity process is extended by a variable capital stock and an equity-type asset. We find that the variable capital significantly changes behavior of the model, capital depreciation must be substantially increased to counter the effect of variable capital and stochastic mean of inflation increases. The model calibrated to the US economy and a high risk aversion generates 10-year term premium of 90 basis points, rare disasters increase the premium only by 3 basis points. The equity premium is 163 basis points and rare disasters increase it also only by 3 basis points. The model with a low coefficient of relative risk aversion of 5.5 generates negative risk premia. Rare disasters increase the risk premia by mere 4 basis points in comparison to a model with i.i.d. shocks. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

The harvesting of Mozambique tropical hardwood species is considerable higher than the natural regrowth in the forest and the stock is decreasing drastically. Therefore, it is important to improve the material recovery when the wood is refined (i.e., in sawing and further refinement to products such as joineries, furniture etc.) to reduce the waste and to re-utilize efficiently the by-products to increase the added value. The wood processing industry is an important means to boost the industries in the rural areas and also to generate incomes for the local communities by creating jobs and business opportunities. The majority of the logging that can be used for sawmilling in Mozambique is exported as roundwood due to the inability of companies to meet the product standards set for export and to generate profit. The lack of capabilities of the local sawmills to generate profit, also foments the illegal logging because of the higher price of roundwood for export which contributes to increase the number of unlicensed individuals in harvesting. This threatens the law enforcement and thus the degradation of the local wood industry. An alternative to increase the profit and empower the local community could be to export more refined wood products such as sawn timber, parquet, and veneer instead of the roundwood. The objective of the work was to investigate alternative sawing strategies of tropical hardwood species that could increase the profitability of the Mozambique wood industry in general and at sawmill in particular. The subject was approached using a database of virtual logs and together with a sawing simulator. The thesis has two main focus areas: (1) creating the log database with the corresponding algorithms for sawing simulation, and (2) investigations of alternative sawing strategies. The first focus was to build the database of surface-scanned logs and develop the algorithm for the saw simulation. The results are a database of 15 logs models describing the logs outer shape in which 10 jambirre (Millettia stuhlmannii Taub.) and 5 umbila (Pterocarpus angolensis DC.), and the algorithm for the sawing simulation. The algorithm use “brute force” i.e., determines all volume yields of sawn timber from the combination of all settings of log-positioning parameters (offset, skew and rotation) and selects the maximum value of volume yield. From simulation, using three sawing patterns (cant-sawing, through-and-through sawing and square-sawing) combined with two positioning parameters (offset and rotation) it was found that the sawing pattern has great impact on volume yield and that the square-sawing gave higher yield followed by through-and-through sawing pattern. The second focus was on alternative sawing strategies; having in mind that the optimal volume yield is achieved by aid of computerized production systems and that these resources are not yet in use in Mozambique. Hence, the objective was to find the positioning parameters that can be set manually and improve the volume yield. The result have shown that the rotation is the most affecting parameter followed by offset and skew, and that the volume yield can decrease by between 7.7% and 12.5% from the optimal positioning when the logs are manually positioned with the knowledge about the optimal log position. In another study, using crook-up or horns-down positioning as alternative to the optimal positioning, the volume yield decreases by between 10% and 13% from the optimal positioning. By using bucked logs , the optimal volume yield increased by between 8% and 13% in relation to full lengths logs, and the volume yield of bucked logs when using crook up positioning decreases 2% in relation to optimal positioning of full length logs. It is concluded that there is an unexploited value potential in the wood chain which can be reached using alternative positioning and modern measurement techniques and that the grading of wood will facilitate and improve the sawing process.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Agronomy / P. V. Vara Prasad / Sweet sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) is an important bioenergy crop. There is a wide array of genetic diversity in sweet sorghum germplasm collections. However, information on traits associated with sugar yield, optimum harvesting time for maximum sugar yield, effects of abiotic stresses on sugar yield is scarce. The objectives of the present study were: to identify traits that are associated with sugar yield, to determine the optimum harvesting time for maximum sugar yield and to understand the physiological responses of different sweet sorghum genotypes to drought and high temperature. In order to meet these objectives, five independent field and greenhouse studies were conducted. Field experiments were conducted using 280 sweet sorghum germplasm and were evaluated for 2 years. From this study, 30 genotypes representing high and low sugar yielders were selected for the subsequent experiment. We observed a significant variation in physiological, morphological and sugar yield traits associated with biofuel production. In the selection experiment, investigations on the morphological, physiological attributes helped to identify those characters which influence or limit sugar yield in the sweet sorghum. Another field study was conducted to optimize the harvesting time for obtaining highest sugar and juice yields in sweet sorghum. Sweet sorghum variety M81E was harvested at ten growth stages. Our results suggest that the optimum time for harvesting of sweet sorghum cultivar M81E is between milk and hard dough stages when highest sugar yield was observed. Studies on different levels of water stress were studied under greenhouse conditions. Four sweet sorghum genotypes (Awanlek, Smith, Tracy and Wray) were subjected to three water stress treatments (100% pot capacity (PC); 70% PC and 30% PC) for 20 days at early seed filling (Milk) stage. The results showed that genotypes differed significantly for all growth and yield, biochemical and physiological traits. Severe water stress significantly decreased juice and sugar yields by decreasing net photosynthetic rate, transpiration rate, stomatal conductance and sucrose content in the stem juice. Genotypes Tracy and Wray produced significantly highest brix, stem fresh weight, juice and sugar yield under both irrigated and water stress conditions. In another greenhouse study, we quantified the effects of drought, high temperature, and their combinations on growth, physiology and yield of sweet sorghum genotypes. The same four genotypes above were subjected to four treatments, T1 - control, T2 - drought stress, T3 - high temperature stress and T4 - combination of drought and high temperature for 16 days after anthesis. The result showed that significant difference was observed for growth and yield traits, physiological traits and non-reducing and total sugar content in juice for genotypes and treatments. Among the genotypes Tracy recorded higher juice and sugar yield. Among the various treatments, combination of drought and high temperature was found to be more deleterious in reducing most of the biofuel traits followed by drought and high temperature stress. The above studies gave significant findings with regards to the identification of superior sweet sorghum germplasm, their tolerance capacity to different abiotic stresses, which allows better selection for the use of bioenergy production.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering / Zhijian Pei / Donghai Wang / The U.S. economy has been depending on petroleum-based liquid transportation fuels (such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuels). Currently, about 50% of petroleum used in the U.S. is imported. Petroleum is a finite and non-renewable energy source and its use emits greenhouse gases. Therefore, it is extremely important to develop domestic sustainable alternatives for petroleum-based liquid transportation fuels. Ethanol produced from cellulosic biomass can be such an alternative. However, several technical barriers have hindered large-scale, cost-effective manufacturing of cellulosic ethanol. One such barrier is related to the low density of cellulosic feedstocks, causing high cost in their transportation and storage. Another barrier is low efficiency in conversion of cellulose to fermentable sugar (pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis are two major conversion processes), causing high cost in pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis of cellulosic biomass. Ultrasonic vibration-assisted (UV-A) pelleting increases both density and sugar yield of cellulosic feedstocks. Incorporating UV-A pelleting into cellulosic ethanol manufacturing may help realize cost-effective manufacturing of cellulosic ethanol. This PhD dissertation consists of 13 chapters. An introduction is given in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 presents a literature review on related topics. Experimental studies regarding effects of input parameters (such as particle size, pressure, and ultrasonic power) on output parameters (density, durability, stability, and sugar yield) are presented in Chapters 3–4. In Chapters 5–6, comparisons are made between UV-A pelleting and ring-die pelleting (a traditional pelleting method) in terms of pellet properties (density and durability), power consumption, and sugar yield under different conditions. Next, effects of input parameters (such as biomass type, particle size, moisture content, pelleting pressure, and ultrasonic power) on power consumption are studied in Chapters 7–9. Chapter 10 presents an investigation on biomass temperature in UV-A pelleting. Chapter 11 presents an investigation on effects of UV-A pelleting on sugar yield and chemical composition of cellulosic biomass. Chapter 12 presents an investigation on influence of UV-A pelleting on biomass characteristics (such as crystallinity index, thermal properties, and morphological structure). Finally, conclusions are presented in Chapter 13.

Master of Science / Department of Horticulture, Forestry, and Recreation Resources / Cary L. Rivard / Grafting with inter-specific hybrid rootstock is effective for tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) growers looking to reduce soilborne disease organically and increase fruit yield in the Southeastern US. However, production with grafted tomatoes has not been tested in the Great Plains region of the US. Small-acreage growers would like to produce grafted plants themselves, but many have difficulty with propagation due to water stress in the scion post-grafting and/or high temperatures within healing chambers. Growers may be able to reduce water stress post-grafting by removing the upper portion of the shoot to reduce leaf surface area, but no data exist on the potential effects of this practice on mature plant yield. Five high tunnel and one open-field study were conducted in 2011 and 2012 to investigate yield effects related to the use of two rootstocks and shoot removal during the grafting procedure. Grafting significantly increased fruit yield in five of the six trials (P<0.05). The average yield increases by Maxifort and ‘Trooper Lite’ rootstocks were 53% and 51%, respectively, across all trials. In some trials shoot removal during the grafting process reduced yield and could depend upon rootstock vigor. Another series of experiments were performed testing the efficacy of shoot removal for graft survival during the healing period prior to field planting. Five healing chambers designs were evaluated, and no significant effects of treatment design were observed upon grafted seedling survival. Plants grafted with no chamber had success rates of 81% to 91%. Additionally, three grafting leaf removal techniques were studied, and a partial leaf removal method had significantly higher success rates as compared to fully foliated and defoliated plants (P<0.05). Partial leaf removal may be recommended as a way to reduce water stress in the plant, and could potentially be a way to simplify the grafting process for small-scale producers.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Geography / Douglas G. Goodin / Jesse A. Poland / Kevin Price / Wheat breeders are in a race for genetic gain to secure the future nutritional needs of a growing population. Multiple barriers exist in the acceleration of crop improvement. Emerging technologies are reducing these obstacles. Advances in genotyping technologies have significantly decreased the cost of characterizing the genetic make-up of candidate breeding lines. However, this is just part of the equation. Field-based phenotyping informs a breeder’s decision as to which lines move forward in the breeding cycle. This has long been the most expensive and time-consuming, though most critical, aspect of breeding. The grand challenge remains in connecting genetic variants to observed phenotypes followed by predicting phenotypes based on the genetic composition of lines or cultivars. In this context, the current study was undertaken to investigate the utility of UAS in assessment field trials in wheat breeding programs. The major objective was to integrate remotely sensed data with geospatial analysis for high throughput phenotyping of large wheat breeding nurseries. The initial step was to develop and validate a semi-automated high-throughput phenotyping pipeline using a low-cost UAS and NIR camera, image processing, and radiometric calibration to build orthomosaic imagery and 3D models. The relationship between plot-level data (vegetation indices and height) extracted from UAS imagery and manual measurements were examined and found to have a high correlation. Data derived from UAS imagery performed as well as manual measurements while exponentially increasing the amount of data available. The high-resolution, high-temporal HTP data extracted from this pipeline offered the opportunity to develop a within season grain yield prediction model. Due to the variety in genotypes and environmental conditions, breeding trials are inherently spatial in nature and vary non-randomly across the field. This makes geographically weighted regression models a good choice as a geospatial prediction model. Finally, with the addition of georeferenced and spatial data integral in HTP and imagery, we were able to reduce the environmental effect from the data and increase the accuracy of UAS plot-level data. The models developed through this research, when combined with genotyping technologies, increase the volume, accuracy, and reliability of phenotypic data to better inform breeder selections. This increased accuracy with evaluating and predicting grain yield will help breeders to rapidly identify and advance the most promising candidate wheat varieties.

Lygus lineolaris (Palisot de Beauvois), L. elisus (Van Duzee), L. borealis (Knight) and Adelphocoris lineolatus (Goeze) were the major species of plant bugs present in commercial field bean and soybean fields in 2008–2010. Lygus lineolaris comprised 78–95% of the mirid adults and <10% were A. lineolatus. Lygus lineolaris reproduced in field beans and completed a single generation. In field beans, adults entered the crop in late July, corresponding to growth stages from late vegetative to pod initiation, and females laid eggs in the crop. Nymphs hatched and developed and were most numerous at the seed development and seed filling stage. At seed maturity, late instar nymphs and adults were present. In soybeans, L. lineolaris reproduced but nymphs had poorer survival than in field beans. Late in the season, adult numbers greatly increased in field beans and soybeans, partly due to immigration of adult Lygus bugs from early‐maturing crops. Field beans and soybeans appeared to be a transient host for A. lineolatus. There were no effects on yield quality or quantity associated with the numbers of plant bugs seen in field surveys. In laboratory and field cages, the type of injury from L. lineolaris feeding differed among plant growth stages but not between nymphs and adults, although nymphs generally were more injurious. At flowering to pod initiation, abortion of buds, flowers or pods was the most common response to feeding injury; pod abortion did not occur when injury occurred at later growth stages. Sometimes abortions resulted in reduced yield quantity, but sometimes plants compensated for the injury. No loss of seed quality occurred from feeding at this stage. During seed development and filling, feeding injury most frequently affected the vascular supply to filling seeds, resulting in shriveled seeds and pods at harvest, and consequent reduced total harvested seed weight. At seed maturity, direct seed injury, involving penetration of the testa and loss of cotyledon tissue, was the most frequent injury and resulted in pits in the seed coat at harvest. There was no loss in yield quantity when feeding occurred at seed maturity, but seed pitting reduced yield quality. / May 2016

Le modèle de culture STICS a été adapté pour la culture du riz inondé et la capacité de prédiction du modèle a été évaluée pour la simulation de la biomasse à la récolte et du rendement en grains. La base de données utilisée pour ce travail résulte de la collecte de données au champ sur des parcelles en Camargue (sud-Est de la France) gérées par les agriculteurs. Pour la modélisation, ne disposant que très peu de données d’expérimentation, une procédure originale d’utilisation des données obtenues à la ferme a été développée. Ce travail est composé de trois phases: (i) une analyse de la base de données initiale constituée d’informations sur 472 parcelles, 33 variétés et 11 sols aux propriétés physiques différentes et collectées entre 1984 et 2009 dans toute la Camargue; (ii) la sélection des options et des formalismes pertinents pour la culture du riz, (iii) la préparation du jeu de données pour la modélisation par élimination des parcelles dont les rendements sont limités par des facteurs non pris en compte dans le modèle; (iv) la paramétrisation et la simulation des variables choisies.Les résultats de l’application de STICS au riz sont satisfaisants pour près de 80% des parcelles utilisées pour la base de données de calibration. L’accord entre les simulations et les observations est meilleur lorsque les informations d’entrée du modèle sont complètes. Les simulations de la biomasse et du rendement en grains sont d’une qualité légèrement plus faible pour la base de données de validation que pour la base da calibration. / The crop model STICS was adapted for the flooded rice and model’s prediction ability was evaluated by the simulation of the plant biomass at harvest as well as the grain yield. The dataset used for this purpose was collected from the fields situated in whole Camargue (Southern France) and managed by the farmers. We introduced an original procedure to use the farm data instead of experimentation for modeling. This work was carried out in three phases, (i) analysis of the initial database of 472 fields, 33 different varieties and 11 physically different soils grown in the whole Camargue between 1984 and 2009, (ii) selection of the options of formalisms relevant to the rice crop, (iii) preparation of dataset for modeling by eliminating the fields in which the yields were limited by the factors not taken into account by the model and (iv) parameterization and the simulation of the selected target variables. The results of the application of STICS to rice crop were satisfactory for almost 80% of the fields of calibration data. Particularly, there was a good agreement between simulations and measurements of the situations with complete information regarding to the inputs. The simulation patterns for both the plant biomass and the grain yield of dataset of validation are similar as that of dataset of calibration exhibiting slightly reduced simulation quality. More discrepancies were observed in the simulations made by the model calculated dates of different phenological stages compared to the simulations run by using the observed dates of same stages.

This doctoral thesis devotes itself to macro-finance models of the Czech yield curve that enable the modeling of the yield curve as a whole and belong to the group of multi-factors models. These factors are unobservable or latent variables, and are intuitively called level, slope and curvature. Macro-finance models not only fit the yield curve through the use of latent factors, but they also try to provide a macroeconomic interpretation. The macro part of the model uses a type of VAR model, where the macroeconomic variables are endogenous or exogenous, or some macroeconomic model based on e.g. a New Keynesian economy. Such a type of models can answer (1) how the macroeconomic variables affect the yield curve, and, on the other hand, (2) how these macroeconomic variables are affected by the yield curve. The EUR/CZK exchange rate and the external environment play an important role in the Czech small open economy (in particular, developments in the eurozone and the impact of global investors' sentiment toward risky assets). Thus, we should take this into consideration when applying to Czech data. It has been shown that temporary macroeconomic and financial shocks (to inflation, output gap, EUR/CZK exchange rate, external demand, etc.) strongly affect the short end of the yield curve; however, longer spot rates react only marginally. The longer end of the curve may move more significantly in the case of a longer duration of the above-mentioned shocks (thus affecting inflationary expectations) or in the case of shocks to the inflation target and real equilibrium interest rates.

Ensiling high moisture grain often increases starch and protein digestibilities due proteolysis during storage. However, the length of storage is fundamental to allow great protein matrix break down. The central objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of length of storage of reconstituted sorghum grain silage (RSGS) on dairy cows performance. Simultaneously it was evaluated the effect of sodium benzoate on silage nutritive value and its impact on animal performance. The hypothesis was that sodium benzoate reduces proteolitic activity due its antimicrobial properties. Two sequential experiments with mid-lactation Holstein dairy cows were set. The first experiment evaluated the effect of different length of storages on RSGS treated or not with sodium benzoate (0.2% as fed). Silages treated with additive (Benzoate) and non-treated (Control) were stored for 30 or 90 days prior feeding. Twenty mid-lactation dairy cows with 168 &#177; 87 days in milk (DIM) were used in 5 replicated 4 × 4 Latin square design with a 2 × 2 factorial arrangement. Dry ground sorghum grain was reconstituted to 35% moisture and ensiled in 200-L plastic drums. Treatments were: RSGS stored for 30 days without additive (30 CON), RSGS stored for 30 days with sodium benzoate (30 BEN), RSGS stored for 90 days without additive (90 CON) and RSGS stored for 90 days with sodium benzoate (90 BEN). Lengthening silage storage increased 1,2-propanediol concentration and protein solubility of silages. Milk yield was greater in favor of cows fed silage stored for 90 days compared to 30 days (31.2 vs. 30.0 kg/d). Starch (89.3 vs. 86.9%) and protein (57.1 vs. 54.0%) digestibility was also greater for silages stored for 90 days compared to 30 days. Sodium benzoate reduced silage ethanol concentration (0.20 vs. 0.08% of DM), but did not altered statistically protein solubility (CON = 18.9 vs. BEN = 15.6% of CP) or ammonium-N (CON = 4.38 vs. BEN = 3.94 % of N). The second trial were conducted with 12 mid-lactation dairy cows (170 &#177; 47 DIM) to evaluated the effect of sodium benzoate on nutritive value and dairy cows performance fed RSGS stored for 150 days, treated (Benzoate) or not (Control) with sodium benzoate. Cows received a standard diet containing dry ground sorghum for 14 days. At the end of adaptation period, cows were paired blocked and randomly assigned to one of two treatments (Control or Benzoate) for 28 experimental days. During experimental period cows received the same diet with the exception of dry ground sorghum, which was totally replaced with RSGS. Silages treated with sodium benzoate had low ethanol (0.84 vs. 0.18 % of DM) and ethyl-lactate (388 vs. 157 mg/kg of DM) concentration as a consequence of low yeast population (4.73 vs. 2.52 log cfu/g). Soluble protein was reduced on treated silages (26.2 vs. 20.6 % of CP). Aerobic stability was higher for treated silages (51 vs. 146 h). Dairy cow performance was not altered by treating silages with sodium benzoate. In conclusion, extending the length of storage of RSGS increased dairy cows use feed efficient and nitrogen use efficiency due higher starch and protein digestibility. Sodium benzoate promoted typical response on silage fermentation and did not alter animal performance. / A ensilagem de grãos úmidos geralmente aumenta a digestão do amido e da proteína devido a proteólise durante o armazenamento. Porém, o tempo de armazenamento é fundamental para permitir que a matriz proteica seja degradada. O objetivo central desse trabalho foi avaliar o efeito do tempo de estocagem em silagens de sorgo grão reconstituído (SSGR) no desempenho de vacas leiteiras. De forma simultânea foi avaliado o efeito do benzoato de sódio no valor nutritivo de silagens de sorgo grão reconstituído. A hipótese foi que o uso de benzoato de sódio em SSGR reduz a atividade proteolítica devido suas propriedades antimicrobianas impactando no desempenho animal. Uma sequência de dois experimentos com vacas leiteiras da raça Holandesa foram formatados. O primeiro experimento avaliou o efeito de diferentes tempos de estocagem em SSGR tratadas ou não com benzoato de sódio (0.2 % base na matéria natural). Silagens não tratadas (Controle) e tratadas com aditivo (Benzoato) foram armazenadas por 30 ou 90 dias antes do fornecimento. Vinte vacas leiteiras (168 &#177; 87 dias em lactação) foram usadas em cinco quadrados latinos replicados 4 × 4 em arranjo fatorial 2 × 2. Sorgo grão foi reconstituído para 35 % de umidade em ambos os experimentos e ensilados em tambores plásticos com capacidade de 200-L. Os tratamentos foram: SSGR armazenados por 30 dias sem aditivo (30 CON), SSGR armazenados por 30 dias com benzoato de sódio (30 BEN), SSGR armazenados por 90 dias sem aditivo (90 BEN) ou SSGR armazenados por 90 dias com benzoato de sódio (90 BEN). Prolongando o tempo de armazenamento a concentração de 1,2-propanodiol e proteína solúvel aumentaram. A produção de leite foi maior em favor das vacas alimentadas com silagens armazenadas por 90 dias comparadas à 30 dias (31.2 vs. 30.0 kg/d). A digestibilidade do amido (89.3 vs. 86.9%) e da proteína (57.1 vs. 54.0%) foi maior para silagens armazenadas por 90 dias. O benzoato de sódio reduziu a concentração de etanol (0.20 vs. 0.08% of DM), porém não alterou ao nível de significância estatística adotada nesse trabalho a proteína solúvel (CON = 18.9 vs. BEN = 15.6% of PB) e o N-amoniacal (CON = 4.38 vs. BEN = 3.94 % of N). O segundo experimento foi conduzido com 12 vacas leiteiras (170 &#177; 47 DEL) para avaliar o efeito do benzoato de sódio no valor nutritivo e desempenho de vacas leiteiras alimentadas com SSGR estocadas por 150 dias, tratadas (Benzoato) ou não (Controle) com benzoato de sódio. Uma dieta padrão contendo sorgo grão seco moído foi fornecida por 14 dias. No final do período de adaptação, os animais foram pareados dois a dois e distribuídos aleatoriamente a um de dois tratamentos (Controle ou Benzoato) fornecidos por 28 dias. Durante o período experimental as vacas receberam a mesma dieta sendo o sorgo seco totalmente substituído por SSGR. Silagens tradadas com benzoato de sódio tiveram menor concentração de etanol (0.84 vs. 0.18 % de MS) e etil lactato (388 vs. 157 mg/kg de MS) como consequência de uma menor população de leveduras (4.73 vs. 2.52 log ufc/g). A proteína solúvel foi reduzida nas silagens tratadas (26.2 vs. 20.6 % da PB). A estabilidade aeróbia foi mais alta nas silagens tratadas (51 vs. 146 h). Em conclusão, estender o tempo de estocagem em SSGR aumentou a eficiência alimentar e do uso do nitrogênio devido ao aumento na digestibilidade do amido e da proteína. O benzoato de sódio promoveu respostas típicas na fermentação de silagens, e não alterou o desempenho animal.