中國與南韓正在從事自由貿易協定之洽簽程序，本篇論文的目的即在於評估其經濟效果。本文應用多國多部門之一般均衡模型，模擬二國農工商品完全自由化在靜態及考慮資本累積之動態效果。 實證效果顯示，上述二種模擬情境下，中國與南韓的整體社會福利都有正面效益，因此本文建議中韓應儘速完成可行性研究階段並開始諮商。如此，中國可以早日扮演建立東亞經濟整合的領導角色，而南韓也可以享受中韓自由貿易協定加上美韓自由貿易協定所產生之綜效。 目前亞洲任何一個已形成或是正在洽簽的自由貿易協定皆不包含台灣，故台灣應積極參與多邊體系下的貿易談判，以減低自由貿易協定所帶來的歧視，並應採納多樣化的協定而非拘泥於自由貿易協定之形式。同時應優先考量可以避免中國政治壓力及可擴大台灣經濟利益的議題，例如：雙邊投資協定及避免雙重課稅協定，以為洽簽正式之自由貿易協定鋪路。 關鍵字：中國、南韓、自由貿易協定、多國多部門之一般均衡分析 / China and South Korea are in the process of pursuing a free trade agreement. The purpose of this study is to assess its economic effects. The paper employs CGE models and the GTAP database to conduct a simulation with full elimination of tariffs in all sectors. Two CGE models are used. One is a static CGE model that captures the short-run effects, and the other captures the static effects as well as the capital accumulation effects arising from higher savings and investment induced by the static gains. The study finds that both South Korea and China will enjoy the welfare gains from the deals. We suggest that China and Korea complete feasibility studies and start the negotiation process at the earliest possible time for the purposes that China can play a leading role in building an East Asian economic integration and that Korea can enjoy the effects of multiple FTAs due to the Korea-China FTA plus Korea-US FTA. In addition, none of the bilateral agreements in Asia includes Taiwan. Taiwan should aggressively engage in trade negotiations under a multilateral system to decrease the discrimination caused by the free trade agreements and adopt diversified forms of agreements instead of focusing on “FTAs” only. Besides, Taiwan should prioritize the issues that can avoid the political pressure from China and expand Taiwan’s economic benefit, such as Bilateral Investment Agreement and Double Taxation Agreement, in order to pave the way for a formal FTA. Key words: China, South Korea, Free Trade Agreement, GTAP

進入21世紀以來，隨著經濟全球化和地區經濟一體化的深化，中國推動韓半島政策，對外戰略而言含有諸多作為：第一、謀求擴大經濟利益；第二、作為地緣經濟戰略夥伴；第三、作為主導東北亞地區地緣經濟合作的管道。 為此，中國著眼於中、韓、朝三方的國家發展需求和地緣經濟互補性，謀求加強與南北韓政治經濟合作的發展，同時，以三方之間地緣經濟合作優勢確保其在韓半島的影響力，在此基礎上，中國謀求消除韓半島安全不確定性，牽制美國影響力和日本勢力。從此觀點來看，中國對韓半島政策就是中國對外戰略的出發點。 從地緣經濟戰略觀點而言，中國與韓半島關係不僅與中國營造發展經濟良好周邊環境有關，而且中國在中韓、中朝關係上具有政治經濟合作利益空間，因而中國加強與南韓政治領域合作交流，透過以經濟條件拋棄北韓邊緣政策，謀求維持韓半島和平與穩定。另外，中國利用與韓半島地緣經濟所長，加強與南北韓經貿合作，深化南北韓對中國經濟依存度，進而通過中國對南北韓的經濟優勢，主導中韓、中朝的地緣經濟合作，確保對韓半島的戰略優勢與影響力。 中國對韓半島政策的目標，將韓半島作為中國發展經濟戰略的管道，謀求地緣經濟利益最大化，透過提升在韓半島的影響力，使得韓半島走向中立化。中國對韓半島實施地緣經濟政策以來，中國與南北韓關係日益密切，在某種領域上，中國已經超越周邊大國的影響力。 在政治與安全領域，中國與南北韓透過領導人和高層人士進行頻繁互訪、建立相互對話機制或設立熱線管道，提高相互信任，加強雙方關係、謀求地區安全和發展。在經濟上，中國引進為自身經濟建設所需要的資金、高技術及礦物資源，而提供為南北韓經濟成長所需的巨大出口市場，尤其是中國也提供北韓經濟所需的原油和工業產品。由此，最近幾年來，中國成為南北韓對外貿易最大夥伴，與此同時，引起南北韓經濟對中國依存度的深化，因而，中國對韓半島的影響力正在擴大。 / Since the start of the 21st century, with constant intensification of the process of economic globalization and regional economic integration, China has pursued much-evolved Korean Peninsula policy for its own strategic goals as following: First, to strengthen its own economic interest; Second, to make the geoeconomic partnership with the two Koreas; Third, to make the partnership as the leverage for regional strategy. For the sake of securing economic common interest and geoeconomic complementarities with the two Koreas, China seeks to develop the cooperative relationship with North and South Korea. At the same time, China seeks to ensure its influence on the Korean Peninsula by using its geoeconomic advantage on the Korean Peninsula. Based on the relations, China hopes to remove the destabilizing factors in the security on the Korean Peninsula, and seeks to restrain American influence and Japan’s power. From this viewpoint, China’s Korea Policy is the starting point of China's foreign policy. From the perspective of geoeconomic strategy, the relationship between China and the two Koreas are much important with regard to building favorable environment for economic development. At the same time, the relations of China-South Korea and China-North Korea have economically and politically beneficial space. Therefore, on the one hand, China has been strengthening political cooperation with South Korea, and China has been forcing the North Korea to abandon the brinkmanship diplomacy by using economic inducements through cooperation with South Korea. As a result, it was designed for maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. On the other hand, by utilizing the geoeconomic advantage with the two Koreas, China has strengthened the economic cooperation with the two Koreas; it has deepened the two Koreas’ economic dependency on China; As a result, it has been taking the lead in geoeconomic cooperation with the two Koreas; and it has been securing its strategic advantage and influence over the Peninsula. The objective of China’s Korea policy is to make the Peninsula be the ditch of China’s economic development; to maximize its geoeconomic interest; besides, to make the Koreas become neutralizing by taking advantage of geoeconomic influence. Since the implementation of China’s geoeconomic policy on the Peninsula, its relations with the two Koreas have become much closer. In some realms, China surpassed neighboring big powers’ influence. In the realm of politics and security, China has pursued the mutual confidence building by the means such as reciprocal visits, mutual dialogue mechanism and hot-line setting with the leadership of the two Koreas for the sake of strengthening of the bilateral relationship and securing of the regional security. And, in the realm of economy, while China brought in investment and high technology from the South side and the mineral resources from the North side, it provided the huge export market for the Peninsula, especially the crude oil and industrial products for the North. Recently, China has become one of the two Korea’s biggest trade partner. Consequently, the two Koreas’ economic dependency on China has been deepening and China’s influence on the Peninsula has been expanding.