以經濟計量迴歸模式討論二氧化碳減量與經濟之間關係時，若就單一影響變數加以探討，容易忽略了其他經濟變數的影響，可能造成所檢定或估計之長期關係有所偏誤。在解釋現實或政策分析上，這種偏誤的估計往往導致混淆與誤導。本文的目的即是根據經濟理論，使用 Johansen 方法建立向量自我迴歸模型，再利用最大概似函數檢定 CO2 排放、所得、能源及其他要素價格變數之間的共整合關係，並得出具有經濟意義的彈性係數，最後並利用此長期關係模擬碳稅之效果。主要結論如下： (1)所得為 CO2 排放成長最主要之因素，且 CO2 排放成長率將大於 GDP 的成長率。 (2)能源價格係數值偏低，顯示能源價格變動對 CO2 排放的影響不大。 (3)模型限制愈嚴格，因忽略某些長期訊息，故檢定出之長期彈性愈不敏感。 (4)基本模型的假設限制最少，較具說服力，但檢定結果較不明確；三變數模型其結果較為明確易於作判斷，同時所犧牲之長期資訊將不至於太大。雙變數模型假設限制最大，具有最大之檢定偏誤，故應用在解釋上將有所限制。 (5)二氧化碳排放將隨經濟成長之下降而隨之減緩，但因預估我國經濟成長仍在 5%以上， CO2排放成長減緩之幅度不大，因此政府必須採用政策工具來干預。 (6)由課征碳稅之模擬結果發現：欲明顯發揮碳稅之效果，其稅率將非常高。但高稅率在執行上將產生困難。 因此本文建議：除了碳稅有其效率性仍應在可能範圍內加以課徵之外，應同時採取其他減量工具配合，就短期而言，直接管制、低利貸款、加速折舊以及獎勵廠商研究減少 CO2 排放之技術是可行之做法；長期而言，制定出一套規劃完整之排放權交易制度，可說是政府未來努力之目標。

本文主旨在於透過國內消費重新估算臺灣二氧化碳排放量。蓋全球各區域二氧化碳排放量的變動，透過貿易分工而移轉，若只用一國國內生產面估算二氧化碳的排放量，將忽略了各國實際消費的二氧化碳排放量，並使《京都議定書》防止全球暖化的原意大打折扣。因為已開發國家為了達到氣體減量政策的目標，可將二氧化碳排放密集的產業遷移至低度開發國家，溫室氣體的排放只是由締約國轉移到非締約國而已。反之，若以消費面二氧化碳排放量作為二氧化碳減量之依據，則能更有效地提供減量誘因，促進減量技術之發展或誘導節約用能與需求消費。爰此，本文先以透過產業關聯模型調整消費面的臺灣二氧化碳排放量估算值，並以排放減量的觀點分析產業部門之進出口來源國，最後透過多目標規劃模型，進行二氧化碳減量之政策分析，並提出產業發展建議。 / This paper aims at estimating the CO2 emissions of Taiwan from the perspective of domestic consumption side. Since the developed countries would achieve the emission reduction goal by transferring their emission-intensive industries form their lands to the developing countries, we would neglect the true CO2 emissions of nations if we only estimate their CO2 emissions from the perspective of domestic production side, therefore reduce the significance of the Kyoto Protocol, which aims at reducing emissions. On the contrary, If we estimate the CO2 emissions of nations through the consumption side, we can provide the incentives for emission reduction more effectively, prompting the development of the technology of emission reduction or inducing consumers to conserve the use of energy. Consequently, this paper first estimates the CO2 emissions of Taiwan from the perspective of domestic consumption side through an input-output model, then estimates the import and export emissions of industry sectors, finally it analyzes the policies for CO2 emission reduction by a multi-objective programming model and provides suggestions for the development of industries.

近年來，全球氣候變遷問題已嚴重影響人類生活，而世界各國也逐漸意識到已開發國家和開發中國家必須共同合作以解決此問題。京都議定書中的清潔發展機制 (CDM) 即是讓已開發國家與開發中國家共同實踐減量目標的一種彈性減量機制，然而過去文獻對於其減排成效的看法並不一致。有鑒於此，本文以參與CDM計畫的20個開發中國家和16個已開發國家為研究對象，探討CDM計畫對其2003至2008年二氧化碳減量之影響。根據兩階段最小平方法之固定效果模型的實證結果顯示，CDM計畫能減少開發中國家的二氧化碳排放量，但經認證的排放減量額度 (CERs) 有被過量核發之現象；另一方面，CDM計畫對已開發國家的減排效果則無影響。 / In recent years, global climate change problem has affected humans’ life badly. Therefore, it is gradually realized that the developed countries and developing countries have to cooperate to solve the problem. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is one of the flexibility mechanisms defined in the Kyoto Protocol, and it allows the developed countries, in cooperation with developing countries, to fulfill the emission-reduction targets. However, the emissions abatement effects of CDM in the literatures are diverse. Accordingly, this paper uses 20 developed countries and 16 developing countries as an empirical case to examine the impact of CDM on carbon dioxide emissions abatement from 2003 to 2008. According to fixed effects two-stage least squares, CDM projects reduced the carbon dioxide emissions of developing countries, but the certified emissions reductions (CERs) were excessively issued. On the other hand, CDM projects didn’t have an impact of emissions abatement on developed countries.

This work presents model development and model analyses of CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers. The goal has been two-fold, firstly to develop models and address the system behaviour under geological heterogeneity, second to tackle the issues related to problem scale as modelling of the CO2 storage systems can become prohibitively complex when large systems are considered. The work starts from a Monte Carlo analysis of heterogeneous 2D domains with a focus on the sensitivity of two CO2  storage performance measurements, namely, the injectivity index (Iinj) and storage efficiency coefficient (E), on parameters characterizing heterogeneity. It is found that E and Iinj are determined by two different parameter groups which both include correlation length (λ) and standard deviation (σ) of the permeability. Next, the issue of upscaling is addressed by modelling a heterogeneous system with multi-modal heterogeneity and an upscaling scheme of the constitutive relationships is proposed to enable the numerical simulation to be done using a coarser geological mesh built for a larger domain. Finally, in order to better address stochastically heterogeneous systems, a new method for model simulations and uncertainty analysis based on a Gaussian processes emulator is introduced. Instead of conventional point estimates this Bayesian approach can efficiently approximate cumulative distribution functions for the selected outputs which are CO2 breakthrough time and its total mass. After focusing on reservoir behaviour in small domains and modelling the heterogeneity effects in them, the work moves to predictive modelling of large scale CO2  storage systems. To maximize the confidence in the model predictions, a set of different modelling approaches of varying complexity is employed, including a semi-analytical model, a sharp-interface vertical equilibrium (VE) model and a TOUGH2MP / ECO2N model. Based on this approach, the CO2 storage potential of two large scale sites is modelled, namely the South Scania site, Sweden and the Dalders Monocline in the Baltic Sea basin. The methodologies developed and demonstrated in this work enable improved analyses of CO2 geological storage at both small and large scales, including better approaches to address medium heterogeneity. Finally, recommendations for future work are also discussed.