隨著中國經濟持續高速成長, 國際貿易及投資快速擴展, 中國更積極推動貿 易及投資以人民幣結算, 人民幣在兩岸、 區域甚至全球市場流通可望大幅 增加。 1990年代以來, 兩岸經貿快速發展, 相形下, 雙方貨幣層面合作卻明顯 幾經波折、 踟躕不前, 目前兩岸雖已開啟人民幣現鈔清算服務但尚未建立貨 幣清算機制 , 限制台灣成為人民幣清算平台及後續金融影響力。 本文以 Devereux and Shi(2005) 為主架構, 討論兩岸簽署貨幣清算機 制建立對貿易廠商影響, 主要發現如下: (1) 於國際貨幣交易需透過工具貨幣 (Vehicle Currency,VC) 現實下, 兩岸人民幣貿易結算無法完全規避匯率風險, 此與台灣中央銀行意見一致, 但當兩岸進出口貿易全數以人民幣結算時, 若台灣使用人民幣銷貨收入購買中 國商品, 台灣對中國消費將完全不受匯率變化影響, 並非所有匯率風險皆由 台灣承擔; 此外, 當中國完全使用人民幣支付自台灣進口商品時, 中國最適 決策代數式和 D-S(2005) 雙邊貨幣直接兌換均衡 (BD) 部分相同, 自2012 年6 月1 日起, 人民幣與日圓直接兌換亦正式於東京和上海外匯市場展開, 結論因而別具政策意涵。 (2) 數值分析發現, 當兩岸進出口貿易全數以人民幣結算時, 台灣及中國總 消費對外國商品消費偏好非常不穩健, 對應所有θ, 中國總消費皆較台灣高, 且隨θ上升快速增加, 由於兩岸皆較雙邊匯兌需透過美元及雙邊貨幣可直接兌換時消費更多商品, 故可知兩岸皆得利於以人民幣進行結算。 對於上述結 論, 需要特別注意的是, 本文以包括台灣、 美國及中國, 且美國為工具貨幣 (VC) 發行國之三國模型, 是在非常特例的情況下進行福利分析, 此時雙邊 貨幣兌換均衡將與對稱交易均衡相同, 影響所及, 結論受校準時使用基準參 數值影響相當大; (3) 本文依循 D-S(2005), 限制工具貨幣發行國美國以外各國僅能於跨期 間持有美元, 故無法分析中國得以人民幣購買台灣商品下, 台灣累積一定金 額人民幣存量之影響, 然為簡化分析, 排除任何調整過程, 亦為模型不合理 處; 此外, 為簡化模型, 設定中國自台灣進口商品貨款中使用人民幣支付比 率α為外生, 然而該比率實際上應受人民幣在岸、 離岸市場利差及匯差、 全 球景氣變化增加持有美元意願等因素影響, 由於本文僅考慮貿易需求換匯 未考慮套利、 套匯行為, 將留待未來進一步分析。 / For the past three decades, a skyrocketing Chinese economy has supported its growing influences on international trade and investment,with Beijing’s active promotion for Renminbi investment and trade settlement, its greater circulation across the strait, in the Asia-Pacific region or even globally is only to be expected. Compared with the significantly intensified and institutionalized cross-strait trade and economic exchanges since early 1990s, monetary cooperation across the strait has obviously stalled and progressed slowly. Currently with only a cross-strait cash settlement agreement,but not an establishment of a cross-strait currency settlement mech- anism clearly limits Taiwan’s prospect to become the next offshore Renminbi center and its future financial influence. This thesis is based on Devereux and Shi(2005) to query into the effect of a cross-strait currency settlement mechanism for firms engaged in international trade. We find that: First, under the reality that international currency trade still uti- lizes U.S. dollar as a vehicle, cross-strait trade settled in Renminbi could not completely avoid exchange rate risks, which is in accordance with the opinion from central bank, however, when cross-strait trade are all settled in Renminbi, Taiwan would not bears all the exchange rate risks if Taiwan’s imports from China were paid in its Renminbi sales revenue; Furthermore, when all of China’s imports from Taiwan are settled in Renminbi, some of the algebraic expressions representing Chinese consumption and currency exchange decisions would coincide with the bilateral deviation(BD) equilibrium in D-S(2005) entailing some intriguing policy implications since starting from June 1,2012, yuan and yen can trade directly in Tokyo and Shanghai . Second,numerical analysis found that when cross-strait trade are all settled in Renminbi, though both sides’ total consumption are not robust to changes in preference toward foreign goods ,θ, for all θ in the relevant range , China’s total consumption is greater than Taiwan and the difference is increase in θ, in addition, they both consume more than when cross-strait remittance needs to be done via the U.S. dollar and when New Taiwanese dollar and Chinese yuan trade directly, it thus can be inferred that both Taiwan and China gain from Renminbi trade settlement.Though cautions should be taken that a welfare anal- ysis utilizing a three-country model consisting of Taiwan, China and the United States which further acts as the issuing country of vehicle currency is an extreme case, in that, bilateral deviation and symmet- rical trading equilibrium (STE) would be identical and the outcome highly subjects to benchmark values used in calibration. Third,The framework is borrowed from Devereux and Shi(2005) which prohibits non-vehicle countries from holding currencies other than U.S. dollar intertemporally, hence it could not provide any in- sights to the effects of the accumulation of a Renminbi pool in Taiwan under the Renminbi trade settlement scheme, which together with the fact that to simplify analysis, no adjusting process is included ren- der the model unreasonable and unrealistic; In addition, to reduce model construction, α, the percentage of China’s imports from Tai- wan to be paid in Renminbi is exogenous while in reality it should be endogenous and collectively determined by factors not exclusive to the spreads between CNY and CNH, differences in depositing and lending rates between the onshore and offshore market and investors’ inclination which is affected by the outlook of the global economy to embrace the safe haven of U.S. dollar. As arbitrage is ruled out and only currency exchanges for the purposes of trade is considered, all these drawbacks are to be improved upon in further studies.

本文欲以平滑轉換自我迴歸模型(Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model，簡稱STAR模型)及時變平滑轉換自我迴歸模型(Time-varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model，簡稱TV-STAR模型)兩種非直線性模型為工具，剖析人民幣實質有效匯率之動態結構。 實證結果得知，在長期干預的情況下，人民幣實質有效匯率拒絕線性檢定且其為LSTAR模型，故可知人民幣實質有效匯率在轉換過程具有不對稱之特性；其次，利用“Specific-to-General-to-Specific”篩選過程得知，若是預測人民幣實質有效匯率，並不一定需要利用到比較複雜的TV-STAR模型；因為樣本外預測，短期間，一階自我迴歸模型的表現可能並不遜於複雜模型；長期而言，則似以STAR模型表現較佳。

人民幣是否可能成為另一個重要的國際貨幣，甚至挑戰美元的國際地位？此即本論文的問題意識。對此，本論文進一步提出三個研究問題：一是如何測量當前的人民幣國際化程度？二是如何測量當前的人民幣資本開放程度？三是資本開放對於人民幣國際化程度的影響為何？ 為此，本研究利用主成分分析（PCA），以建構人民幣國際化程度（CIDI）與人民幣資本帳開放程度（CAOI）。其次再利用動態追蹤資料模型──系統一般動差估計法（SGMM），以檢證各項人民幣綜合競爭力對於貨幣國際化程度的影響。最後，本研究進一步梳理人民幣資本帳開放的進程，並結合上述所有實證分析的結果，進而預估漸進資本開放下人民幣國際化的前景。研究對象包括人民幣在內的33種國際貨幣，研究時間則起自1999年歐元成立，迄於2009年。 本論文的發現三：一是，當前人民幣國際化程度進展相當快速。但截至2009年年底，人民幣國際化程度還很低，遠落後於美元、歐元、日圓，以及英鎊等主要國際貨幣。不僅如此，人民幣國際化程度也遜於俄羅斯盧布、巴西里拉，以及印度盧比等開發中國家所發行的貨幣。 二是，過去10年來，人民幣資本帳開放程度不升反降，截至2009年年底，人民幣的資本帳開放程度維持在零，這表示：人民幣是世界上管制最為嚴格的貨幣。相對而言，美元、歐元、日圓，以及英鎊的資本帳開放程度至少都在70％以上，特別是英鎊的資本帳開放程度更趨近於完全開放。 三是，根據SGMM的實證結果顯示，網路外部性、經濟規模、金融市場規模、貨幣穩定度，以及資本開放程度都是影響貨幣國際化程度的關鍵因素。在此基礎上，本研究利用發生機率（odds ratio），以計算不同資本開放情境下，人民幣成為前10大國際貨幣的可能性。結果顯示，如果人民幣的資本帳開放到73％左右，人民幣便可擠進前10大國際貨幣（發生機率為65.6％）。 不過，這只是最為保守的估計。原因有二：一是，隨者中國經濟實力的崛起，以及人民幣預期升值的脈絡下，國際市場對於人民幣的需求原本就很高。此時，人民幣資本帳如果能適時開放，則人民幣的國際持有將大幅增加。換言之，本研究沒有考量到，各貨幣競爭力因素與資本開放程度之間的加乘效果。 二是，資本開放不僅直接對貨幣國際化程度產生影響，也會透過擴大金融市場規模與網路外部性等其他貨幣競爭力因素，間接對貨幣國際化程度造成影響。這間接效果，本研究也沒有考量到。因此，可以預期的是，只要人民幣資本帳能夠漸進開放，人民幣國際化的前景將比本研究所預估的高出許多。 / This paper discusses whether the Renminbi (RMB) will become an international currency, even challenging to the U.S. dollar. In order to examine above question, this paper take the following three steps: 1. By using principal component analyses (PCA), this paper constructs two indices: currency internationalization degree index (CIDI) and capital account liberalization degree index (CAOI); 2. By using dynamic panel data model-system generalized method of moment (SGMM), this paper analyzes factors affect the CIDI, including economic and trade size, financial system, network externalities, confidence in the currency’s value, and CAOI; 3. According to the PCA and SGMM results, this paper calculates the odds ratio of RMB becoming important international currency. The reserch achieved the following results. First, the degree of internationalization of the RMB progress very fast, but the RMB CIDI is still very low, its CIDI far behinds the dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and pounds. Second, over the past 10 years, RMB CAOI is not increased but decreased. Its CAOI is at zero in 2009, this means that: the RMB is the most stringent controls in the world currency. In contrast, U.S. dollars, euros, yen, and pound CAOI are at least in more than 70%. Third, according to the SGMM results, economic size, financial system, network externalities, confidence in the currency’s value, and CAOI are key factors affect the CIDI. Based on this output, this paper forecasted that if the RMB CAOI is open to about 73%, RMB could be squeezed into the top 10 of the international currency. (The odds ratio is 65.6%) It is noteworthy that this is only the lowest estimates. This is because that this paper did not consider the interaction effects of each currency competitiveness factors and CAOI. Therefore, if RMB CAOI continues open, the prospect of RMB CIDI is much higher than estimated by this paper.

兩岸經貿在政治的隔閡與反復中，從小到大，從封閉到逐漸開放。在這個過程中，兩岸資金融通的不斷擴大成為這場華麗經濟表演的背景。但隨著人民幣在國際舞台角色變化，兩岸貨幣流通從背景中走出，金融合作發展甚至可能成為兩岸經濟未來的最重要之組成。 從法律角度審視兩岸跨境資金流通，繁瑣的管制措施與複雜的法律體系正在逐漸消減。從直接投資角度而言，對外中國大陸不斷推動外商投資企業法規的改制以吸引外商投資；對內則努力減少中國企業融資阻礙，以推動中國大陸企業走出去。而台灣雖然對於陸資仍然保持著較大的戒心，亦逐步放開對大陸投資管制，並開放陸資來台來台促進經濟發展。從間接投資角度而言，中國大陸逐步放開資本項下的管制， QDII、QFII等投資管道不斷推陳出新，更加開放的未來成為可能。 而在這場以人民幣國際化為目的的改革中，自貿區扮演了急先鋒的角色。自貿區階段式的政策開放有著中國大陸改革和法律變遷的典型特征，「試點—推廣」模式使自貿區走在了人民幣國際化的最前沿。而台灣的自由經濟示範區卻步入了困境。 自貿區的現在很大可能將會是中國大陸的未來，人民幣國際化成為一個大概率事件。面對這種未來，台灣可以如何應對？從法律角度而言，本文提出以下四個建議：1．推動兩岸貿易以本幣結算，深化兩岸經貿往來；2．建立雙邊貨幣交換機制，共同推動人民幣區域化及國際化；3．推動兩岸資本市場的交流與合作，建構台灣為人民幣離岸中心；4．推動兩岸金融監理合作、建置兩岸金融防火牆。 / The economic and trade have developed since 1980s though faced with the political barriers. The two sides is expected to work together in peace in the future. From the perspective of cross-border capital flow, the two sides set up a complicated and complex control measures, forming a complex legal system. From the view of direct investment, China is currently promoting the restructuring of foreign investment enterprises and regulations to attract foreign investment. Reducing the financing pressure of Chinese enterprises and promoting the Chinese mainland enterprises to go out become one of the focus of the mainland policy. However, Taiwan resist the Chinese capital. From the perspective of indirect investment, China's mainland is currently expanding various investment pipelines, such as QDII, QFII, etc.. In the future, capital of cross-border capital flows will be more convenient. Taiwan also has more space to intervene. The establishment of free trade zone has become the pioneer of China's financial reform, and its development has been the most advanced in the financial reform, capital projects and the internationalization of RMB. Negative list and a series of financial reform measures will gradually move to the country. Taiwan's free economic demonstration zone has entered a difficult situation. Facing such a future, from a legal point of view, this paper puts forward the following five suggestions: 1. Promote cross-strait trade in local currency settlement, deepen economic and trade exchanges between the two sides; 2. The establishment of bilateral currency exchange mechanism, and jointly promote the RMB regionalization and internationalization; 3. To promote exchanges and cooperation on both sides of the capital market, build Taiwan as an offshore RMB Centre; 4. To promote cross-strait financial supervisory cooperation, build cross-strait financial firewall.

離岸金融市場，早期主要是以非居民為對象提供非本幣交易金融服務的國際金融市場。近幾十年來，國際金融市場規模快速成長，同時國際金融功能也不斷擴大，而離岸市場也隨著它的功能不斷調整、擴充，發展出了許多不同的面貌。許多國際貨幣如美元、日圓、歐元也在倫敦、東京、紐約、香港、新加坡這些國際金融城市頻繁且大量的交易。 　　人民幣目前還不是主要國際貨幣，國際化程度不若這些國際貨幣高，在境外使用也較主要國際貨幣來的少，較具規模的人民幣離岸市場從2010年後在香港漸具雛型。由於中國近年來一系列推動人民幣向境外流動的政策，讓人民幣在全球貨幣的地位逐漸提升，而隨著人民幣在境外流動數量的增加，使得近年來人民幣離岸市場引起國際金融城市的關注，有些地區也加入爭取發展人民幣離岸市場的行列。 　　由於香港不但是第一個發展人民幣離岸市場的案例，在現今的發展規模上也是最大的境外人民幣中心，因此本研究透過香港發展的條件及路徑，從既有文獻的檢閱、數據的蒐集，並結合對相關人士的訪談，整理歸納國際貨幣離岸市場的發展經驗與香港發展人民幣離岸市場的優劣條件，希望台灣在開放人民幣業務之後，能借鏡當初其他國際貨幣離岸市場與香港發展的一些經驗來做為台灣發展的參考，並結合自身擁有的條件，發揮自身優勢，改善原有劣勢，把握面臨的機會，積極地克服外在的威脅。 / In the early period, offshore financial markets provided non-local currency transaction services to non- residents. In recent decades, as the international financial market grows and expands rapidly, the offshore market and its function also constantly adjust, expand, and develop many different aspects.Many international currencies such as the dollar, the yen, and the euro are also hugely demanded and used in those international financial centers such as London, Tokyo, New York, Hong Kong, and Singapore. RMB is still not a major international currency nowadays. Its degree of internationalization and frequency of usage outside China are not high as other international currencies, but Hong Kong already develops as an offshore financial market after 2010. Due to China government’s series policies to promote the internationalization of RMB, the international position of RMB is rising. As RMB’s offshore flow increases rapidly, it gets the attention of many international financial cities, and some regions even join to develop as RMB offshore financial markets. 　　Since Hong Kong is the first offshore financial market and the biggest offshore center of RMB, this study examines its development through reviewing the existing literature, analyzing data, and combining the interviews of stakeholders to sum up the merits of Hong Kong and other international monetary markets. We hope that after opening RMB’s business, Taiwan can actively learn from Hong Kong and these markets, promotes our strengths, improve the weaknesses, seize the opportunities, and overcome external threats.