近年中共在逐漸認知到台灣中南部民眾為擁護民進黨當局獨立訴求之強大力量後，相繼透過與台灣在野政黨合作、牽線，以及「放權讓利」式的大批「惠台措施」，冀求爭取農民好感與向心，進而潛移其政治意向。本論文的目的，乃是嘗試由最基層民意的觀點切入，探討中共此番作為的可操作性。作者以深度訪談 (in-depth interview)方式分析，農業貿易「惠台措施」的過程中，誰是真正的贏家? 再者，讓利措施是否真為解決台灣農產品產銷困境的及時雨？其真正意含為何？最後，農民對「中國」（中共）觀感能否因此變移？又是如何轉變?冀以跳脫一般的思維與視角，看待此一頗為特殊之兩岸經貿議題。 / Relations across the Taiwan Strait are complicated by “a deep political divide, but close socioeconomic integration.” China recently is aware of Taiwan farmers integrate huge power in the DPP’s independence advocacy, thus tries to sway their political tendency by utility of economic leverage in the form of tariff-free in fifteen species of Taiwan-grown fruit. Not knowing the effectiveness, this thesis aims at searching the truth by way of in-depth interviews with people of agricultural professional; and the narration reveals Taiwanese farmers are not the direct beneficiaries, sometimes even sufferers, in the whole process. Is fruit policy a carrot for Taiwanese farmers or a stick for the ruling government? The answer is hard to define. Other maneuvering tactics between the KMT and CCP and interests of fruit agents were hidden behind China’s so-called “good will” behavior.

1990年代以來，區域貿易協定的數目呈現倍數成長，發展到今日，全世界已約有230個FTA。然而臺灣卻因政治因素被屏除在區域經濟整合之外，將為臺灣經濟帶來諸多挑戰，我國若欲走出困境、強化在國際間的競爭力，勢必要有所作為。因此馬英九總統在競選總統時就以「與世界連結，參與全球區域經濟整合」為經貿政策主軸，而充分利用中國大陸現有的資源與市場，與其簽署區域貿易協定更是最具關鍵性的一步。經過多次正式與非正式的溝通協調，2010年6月29日，兩岸正式在重慶簽署ECFA，並於同年9月12日正式實施。 但從ECFA議題拋出到簽署實施，各界的爭辯從未停止，究竟ECFA對臺灣是危機還是轉機？是幫助臺灣走向世界還是被鎖進中國？值得深入研究，因此本文藉由國內外相關文獻來探討簽署ECFA對我國政治、經濟社會以及國家安全層面的影響，以增加閱讀者對ECFA的了解，也能成為政府推動ECFA的參考。 / Since 1990s, the number of the region trade agreements has been doubling, and until now there has been a total of 230 FTAs around the world. However, due to political factors, Taiwan has been dismissed outside the regional economies conformity, which will bring many obstacles toward the economic development in Taiwan. If our country intends to walk away from the dilemma and raise our competiveness, some steps must be taken. Therefore, while running for the presidency, President Ma Yingjiu brought up, 〝Links with the world, participates in the whole world regional economies conformity〞 as his economics and trade policy. By fully making using at the mainland China’s existing resources and markets, it was a must for Taiwan to sign the region trade agreement with china. After several official and unofficial communication and coordinating, on June 29, 2010, the Cross-Strait ECFA was signed officially in Chongqing, and implemented in the same year on September 12. Nevertheless, since the ECFA was carried out and signed, the debates from all walks of life has never come to an end. Is ECFA a crisis or a turning point for Taiwan？ Does it the help Taiwan to move toward the world or to be locked within China？It is worthwhile to conduct a research to clear out the doubts. This article dims to take a deeper look at how ECFA is influenced on Taiwan n terms of politics, economy, and national security. So that not only can the readers have a better understanding of the ECFA but also the government refers to it while the implementation of policy.

2008年馬英九總統上任後，遵行「先經後政」的兩岸政策方針，積極與中國大陸簽訂了多項協議，但我國民眾對此出現許多疑慮。2013年6月，海基會與海協會於中國大陸上海簽署《海峽兩岸服務貿易協議》，並對外公布兩岸的開放清單，此舉引發我國民眾不滿，認為政府單位未做到與民間充分協調的工作，並憂心將使臺灣在經濟與政治上更依賴中國大陸，造成社會不安，其後，我國於2014年3月，爆發了國內大規模的「太陽花學運」抗爭活動。 近年來，中國大陸已成為臺灣最大的貿易夥伴，但基於臺灣與中國大陸的特殊關係，兩岸間的經貿發展一直是台灣民眾相當關心的問題。本研究的主要目的為，在兩岸經貿互動非常密切與民意優先的今日，了解民眾對於兩岸經貿的認知與立場，試圖了解哪些因素會使民眾對於兩岸經貿的態度改變，並在過往研究的基礎上，洞悉影響民眾兩岸經貿態度的內在及外在因素如何相互作用，使民眾的兩岸經貿認知產生變化，並使用國立政治大學選舉研究中心「線上調查實驗室」於2015年4月，所進行的網路民調資料來分析。 根據前述架構，本研究將內在因素歸類為人口變項、心理認同、經濟考量以及政治考量四個部分；外在因素則藉由當今兩岸經貿交流互動中所遭遇到的問題點作為設計，涵蓋經濟利益、談判過程與安全因素等三部分，並提出政府可實行政策之方向，以條件問句來看民眾在情況下的態度變化。 資料檢測的結果發現，民眾對於各項條件句的接受程度不一，甚至加入條件句後，對於兩岸經貿的態度有轉向負向的情況，顯見不同的背景的民眾，將藉由相異的思考面向來形塑其對於兩岸經貿認知。而其中，安全因素的條件，將最有助於扭轉原先不贊成兩岸經貿的民眾意見。 研究發現，影響民眾對於兩岸經貿態度的變數中，除過去較常討論的內在因素外，外在因素同時具有影響力。臺灣民眾看待兩岸經貿不全然受到感性因素影響，當政府適時的給予政策上的幫助時，民眾仍會改變態度，以理性作為思考。希冀藉由本研究的討論，對於民眾兩岸經貿立場認知有更全面性的了解，並提供實質上的政策意涵。

本研究係利用經濟部投資審議委員會2007年「華僑及外國人投資事業營運狀況調查表（非服務業）」問卷資料，以1,013家僑外資在台非服務業廠商為分析對象，運用Probit Model進行實證分析，由廠商規模、行業分類、廠商成立年數、國際化程度、技術來源、在台設立區域營運總部、業務種類多樣化、兩岸經貿政策進一步鬆綁及降低關稅，儘速與他國簽署FTA等各個面向，探討兩岸經貿關係更加緊密後，影響僑外商在台子公司運籌中心地位之決定因素為何。經實證結果發現，國際化程度、技術來源、在台設立區域營運總部、業務種類多樣化及兩岸經貿政策進一步鬆綁等變數為影響僑外商在台子公司運籌中心地位之決定因素，除技術來源為在台自行研發之變數呈負向關係，傾向於採行降低及不變之營運策略外，其他變數皆與僑外商在台子公司運籌中心地位呈正向關係，傾向採提升之營運策略。 / This research made use of the 2007 Ministry of Economic Affairs Investment Commission survey entitled "Chinese and Foreign Investment Enterprises Operating Conditions Survey (non-service)" and targeted 1,013 non-service industry overseas foreign manufacturers in Taiwan as research subjects. The Probit model was used to carry out an empirical analysis based on the firm size, industry classification, the year the manufacturer was established, the degree of internationalization, technology source, established regional operational headquarters in Taiwan, business type diversity, steps taken to relax and lower tariffs and promptness in signing FTA and other oriented documents, with other countries. This study discusses why there were influencing factors in the decisions of overseas foreign investment subsidiaries in Taiwan logistics center positions after cross-strait economic and trade relations became closer. The empirical results show that the degree of internationalization, sources of technology, the establishment of the regional operational headquarters in Taiwan, business type diversity and further relaxation of cross-strait trade policy variables are the impacts of overseas subsidiary of foreign logistics center’s factors in determining status. In addition to the fact that the variables of technology sources developing on their own in Taiwan showed a negative relationship and tend to adopt reduced and unchanged operation strategies, other variables are compatible with overseas business subsidiaries in Taiwan logistics center position and showed a positive relationship and tend to enhance the operational strategies adopted.