兩岸將近一甲子的隔海對峙，歷經了中共「武力解放台灣」、「和平解放台灣」，「和平統一、一國兩制」三個對台政策演變時期；兩岸關係也歷經軍事衝突、冷戰對峙、互動交流等階段。近期，台海情勢顯的更趨動盪，如1999年台灣的「特殊國與國關係」、2000年台灣首次政黨輪替、修憲主張及「一邊一國」等事態發展，2004年再提出所謂「公投新憲」及「台灣正名」運動等主張。這樣的狀況發展，使中共深刻瞭解台灣已越來越偏向「台獨」之路，必須有所因應。 2005年3月14日中共通過《反分裂國家法》，我們可以從法案中瞭解，中共試圖透過法律的形式，立法防制「法理台獨」，這不僅可紓解中共內部不滿對台政策軟弱的壓力，對外亦可展現對台灣的主權宣示，堅持台灣是中國領土不可分割的一部分。可見，中共把20多年來對台方針政策法律化，不僅上升為國家意志，且明確規範兩岸關係，使得反分裂及維護國家主權與領土完整有了法律依據。尤其「非和平手段」的提出，對台海、甚至亞太情勢注入了不安的變數，更引起台灣強烈的反彈與國際的關切。《反分裂國家法》的制訂，絕對不是意外，而是有計畫性的，代表中共對台政策的基調重點逐漸放在偏重防止台灣脫離「一個中國」原則的防獨、遏獨措施。 事實上，胡溫體制接班後，中共對於台灣獨立聲勢的高漲相當擔憂，武力解決台灣問題在現階段既不切實際，也不符合中共發展經濟的首要國家任務，和平解決台灣問題才符合中共國家利益。然而，和平統一固然是最終目標，但衡量當前兩岸關係仍然欠缺和平統一的條件，不過，台灣如果獨立，便直接衝擊到中共核心利益，因此，反對台獨成為胡溫體制對台政策的重要目標。可見，《反分裂國家法》確立了中共反獨為主軸的對台政策，同時加強對台展示善意的經貿與交流活動等軟性策略。這種「軟硬兼施」的兩手策略，將會是中共《反分裂國家法》所展開的對台政策方針與作為。

兩岸五十多年來的隔海對峙，歷經了中共「武力解放台灣」、「和平解放台灣」、「和平統一、一國兩制」三個對台政策演變時期，中共始終依循創黨三大法寶之一—統一戰線，作為對台政策的理論依據。本論文是以統一戰線為主軸，採取國際政治的和戰兩手策略觀點，來研究中共在對台統一戰線上的具體作為與策略目標。文章以歷史序列為系絡，說明中共對台的實際統戰作為，並根據目標管理概念將中共統戰策略目標分為三個層次，透過民調數據的分析，評估中共對台統戰的實行成效：反獨不彰、促統有成。本文認為，北京當局若能確實理解台灣人民對自由民主和平的重視，重新檢討「一國兩制」的對台統戰政策，從實際出發，求同存異，兩岸關係將可展現穩定發展的和平前景。 / For the last fifty years, the political situation of the both sides across the Taiwan Strait has witnessed the three stages of Beijing’s Taiwan policy. They are the Stage of “Armed Liberation of Taiwan”(1949－1954), the Stage of “Peaceful Liberation of Taiwan”(1955－1978), and the Stage of “Peaceful Unification and One Country, Two Systems.” However, there is a common thread that is the concept of “united front” running through these three different stages. The concept of “united front” is normally regarded as the theoretical basis of Beijing’s Taiwan policy. By taking the approach of the “carrot-and-stick” strategy in the international politics as an analytical tool, this study aims to describe how the Chinese Communist set the strategic objectives toward Taiwan and what actions were taken accordingly in terms of the concept of “united front.” This study made use of the historical review of literature to analyze how the concept of “united front” was realized by the Chinese Communist in the specific actions to Taiwan. The concept of management by objectives was applied to the analysis of the related literature and the results revealed that the Chinese Communist’s “united front” strategic objectives could be classified into three levels. Finally the outcomes of the several surveys done before were utilized to evaluate the effect of the “united front” strategy toward Taiwan. The results showed that the strategy did not succeed in preventing the Taiwan’s independent movement, but it seemed to work relatively well to promote the idea of unification. The study concluded by suggesting that the peaceful future across the Taiwan Strait would come in a stable way, should the regime in Beijing seriously consider the craving of people on Taiwan for freedom, democracy and peace, and revisit the policy of “one country, two systems” as its measure of “united front” strategy toward Taiwan. It was urged that the differences across the both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be recognized and commonality must be found, and the realistic actions should be made possible.

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