We investigate the effect of house money on individual investors. Our empirical evidence suggests that house money effect shows up in real-world financial markets, not just in artificial laboratory experiments. The results reveal a strong house money effect and show that investors tend to buy up trend stocks once they have experienced a prior gain. Only when a significant gain is being considered, does an individual become more inclined to take a risk. When the influence of a significant gain gradually depreciates over time, the greater tendency to take risk also diminishes. We find that individual investors exhibit the disposition effect— reluctant to realize losses and more willing to realize gains. They frequently realize small gains and less frequently take large losses, such a behavior may hurt their wealth because their gains are lower than their losses. Analyses of portfolio holdings reveal that individual investors hold relatively few different stocks and focus on a small number of stocks with which they are familiar. Their investment choice is driven by familiarity bias which diminishes the strength of the house money effect. When evaluate an investment gain, investors’ reference points adapt over time and the currently-salient reference point is the highest stock price attained some time ago.

快速消費品的使用為我們每天生活中不可或缺的部分，廠商對於快速消費品產品外觀設計也推陳出新，然而與產品外觀相關的定錨，是否能刺激消費者做出不同判斷，進而影響使用量成為本研究關注主軸。社會判斷理論主張個體對刺激的判斷非固定，而會受刺激所存在的外在環境影響，並據此展開一連串針對個體對外在刺激如何形成印象並做出判斷與回應，表現在行為上的討論和理論。其中如Kahneman與Tversky在1974年提出的定錨捷思法，便認為決策者不是理性的，其判斷會受到一個初始值或初始點影響，根據此初始點調整自己的判斷和決策。 　　本研究參考定錨點之理論與概念，推論經由操弄快速消費品產品外觀的定錨，能夠影響受測者對快速消費品可用量初始點的知覺，進而影響其使用量。根據上述推論，本研究規劃兩大研究主軸，共進行三個實驗，以驗證定錨點對快速消費品使用量造成的影響。 　　本研究採取實驗法，共包含兩個研究、三個子實驗。研究一包含兩個實驗，關注的焦點在於「定錨效果對快速消費品使用量的影響」，以及界定各種可能對消費者使用量有影響的外在定錨參考；研究二進行實驗三，目的則在確認定錨對使用量的影響後，進一步關注「定錨對使用量的影響效果是否受消費者調節焦點差異影響」。 　　研究一中，實驗一選定定錨點中最容易感覺差異的「容器大小」，經由前測移除不適合受測的產品並調整實驗程序後，選用牙膏作為實驗標的，驗證牙膏的容器大小對使用量的影響。由於實驗一正式的實驗產品為牙膏，存在使用工具（牙刷）這項可能的定錨參考，也透過觀察發現剩餘量對使用量似乎會造成影響，因而在正式實驗中再加上「使用工具大小」與「剩餘量多寡」兩項變數。為利於觀察剩餘量多寡，實驗二加入透明容器進入實驗設計，並改用洗手乳作為實驗標的，分析洗手乳「容器大小」、「容器透明與否」與「剩餘量多寡」對於使用量的影響。 　　研究二關注調節焦點差異對定錨效果的影響，因此實驗三加入「調節焦點導向」變數，除了複製並小幅修正實驗二的實驗方法，以再次驗證洗手乳的「容器大小」、「容器透明與否」與「剩餘量多寡」對於使用量的影響外，進而分析依調節焦點區分為重視追求正面結果的促進導向(promotion focus)、重視避免負面結果的預防導向(prevention focus)兩群受測者，定錨效果的影響是否有差異。 　　研究一結果顯示，與產品外觀相關的定錨點對快速消費品的使用量有顯著影響，並驗證「容器大小」、「容器透明與否」與「產品剩餘量多寡」三組定錨效果。其中大容器、透明容器、剩餘量較多等「可用量較充足、較確定」的定錨點會造成使用量顯著較多；反之，小容器、非透明容器、剩餘量較少等「可用量較缺乏、較不確定」的定錨會造成使用量顯著較少。 　　研究二除了再次驗證研究一的三組定錨點與使用量的關係外，更進一步發現定錨點對不同調節焦點導向受測者的效果差異。相對於促進導向受測者，定錨效果對預防導向的受測者影響更為顯著，「容器透明與否」對預防導向者使用有顯著影響，且「容器透明與否」對「剩餘量多寡」的調節作用也會顯著影響預防導向者的使用量。 　　整體而言，本研究驗證了與產品外觀相關的定錨為能夠影響快速消費品使用量的客觀刺激，並發現「容器大小」、「容器透明與否」與「剩餘量多寡」三組定錨點與使用量間的關係，及其效果在預防導向者身上較顯著的現象。 / Could the anchors relating to the appearance of product stimulate consumers to make different judgment and further affect the amount of usage? This is the focus of this study. “Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristics”, a theory suggested by Kahneman and Tversky (1974), assumed decision-makers are irrational, they will make estimates based on an initial value or starting point and then ‘adjusting’ their judgments and decisions. This study applies the concept of “anchors” to the using behaviors of fast moving consumer goods and assumes that marketers could stimulate the perception of consumers by manipulating the anchors relating to the appearance of products and affect the usage amount of them. Due to the hypothesis, this research develops two studies consisting three experiments to verify the effects of anchors on the amount of usage on fast moving consumer goods. Study one includes two experiments focusing on identifying the possible anchors influencing the usage amount. Study two includes the third experiment focusing on the effects of regulatory focus on anchoring effects. Experiment one chooses “the size of container” to be the first anchor of test and toothpaste as the product for the experiment after removing unsuitable product through pretest. Due to the common behavior of using toothpaste with tool (toothbrush) simultaneously, experiment one add “the size of tool” to be another possible anchor. Moreover, experiment one finds that the “residual amount” seems to affect the usage amount. Therefore, experiment one added “the size of tool” and “residual amount” in the formal experiment. To observe and measure the residual amount easily, experiment two added “transparent container” into the experimental design and use hand soap as the product for experiment to analyze the anchoring effects of “the size of container”, “residual amount” and “transparency of container”. Study two concerns the effects of regulatory focus on anchoring effects. Therefore, experiment three added the variable of “regulatory focus”. Aside from duplicating experiment two to verify the anchoring effects demonstrated in study one. Experiment three separates participants into the “promotion focus” and “prevention focus” groups by regulatory focus theory and analyze the difference of anchoring effects between them. The results of study one are as following. “Bigger container”, “more residual amount” and “transparent container” which convey the “sufficient and certain” available quantity, will result in more usage amount. Otherwise, “smaller container”, “less residual amount” and “non-transparent container” which convey the “insufficient and uncertain” available quantity, will result in less usage amount. The results of study two are as following. (1) Verified the anchoring effects on usage amount which study one assumed again. (2) Verified the difference of anchoring effects on usage amount between the promotion focus and prevention focus people. Anchoring effects are more significant on prevention focus people. Specifically, “Transparency of container” has significant effect on prevention focus people. Moreover, the moderating effect of “transparency of container” and “residual amount” to the usage amount is significant. To sum up, one of the key findings in this study is verifying that anchors relating to the appearance of products are objective stimuli which can affect the usage amount of fast moving consumer goods and certifying the anchoring effects of “size of container”, “residual amount” and “transparency of container”. Another key finding of this study is the more significant anchoring effects on the prevention focus people than on the promotion focus people.

目前，隨著資料急速地增加，大規模可擴充性的高度分散式資料庫服務已逐漸成為一種趨勢。在資料如此分散的環境下，如何讓資料的查詢更有效率，建立一個好的索引扮演著相當重要的角色，加上越來越多的資料庫程式應用像是生物、圖像、音樂和視訊等等，皆是處理高維度的資料，而在這些應用程式中，經常需要做相似資料的查詢，但是在高維度的資料且分散式的資料做相似資料的查詢，需耗費大量的時間與運算成本。 基於在高度分散式的環境下，針對高維度的資料有效地做KNN的查詢。我們提出一個利用reference point[2,13]的作法RP-CAN( Reference Point-Content Addressable Network )來改善查詢的效率。RP-CAN 主要是結合CAN [14] 的路由協定和使用reference point建立索引的方式來幫助在高度分散式環境下有效率的對高維的資料做查詢處理。 最後會實作出我們所提出的RP-CAN索引並與RT-CAN[1]做比較。我們發現我們所提出的RP-CAN索引在高維度資料作KNN的查詢時比RT-CAN索引來的有效率。 / There has been an increasing interest in deploying a storage system in a highly distributed environment because of the rapid increasing data. And many database applications such as time series, biological and multimedia database, handle high-dimensional data. In these systems, k nearest-neighbors query is one of the most frequent queries but costly operation that is to find objects in the high-dimensional database that are similar to a given query object. As in conventional DBMS, indexes can indeed improve query performance but cannot deploy directly in highly distributed systems because the environment has become more complex. To efficiently support k nearest-neighbors query, a high-dimensional indexing strategy, is developed for the highly distributed environment. In this paper, we propose an efficient indexing strategy, RP-CAN( Reference Point-Content Addressable Network ), to improve the performance of the k nearest-neighbors query in a highly distributed environment. In the end of this paper, we designed an experiment to demonstrate that the performance of RP-CAN is better than RT-CAN in high dimensional space. Thus, our RP-CAN index could efficiently handle the high dimensional data.

Chen(2010)提出如何用勝率函數來判斷給定的連續條件分配是否相容，以及 相容時如何求對應的聯合分配。本研究提出，在二維有限的情形下，如何用勝率 矩陣來判斷給定的條件機率矩陣是否相容，以及相容時如何求對應的聯合機率矩 陣。又給定的條件機率矩陣不相容時，我們介紹了四種修改勝率矩陣的方法，同 時在使用幾何平均法調整勝率矩陣的過程中，也發現選取最佳參考點以獲得最佳 近似聯合機率矩陣之方法，並且給予理論證明。最後以模擬的方式發現，在修改 勝率矩陣的四種方法中，以幾何平均法所得到的近似聯合機率矩陣，其條件機率 矩陣最常接近所給定的條件機率矩陣。 / Chen (2010) provides the representations of odds ratio function to examine the compatibility of conditional probability density functions and gives the corresponding joint probability density functions if they are compatible. In this research, we provide the representations of odds ratio matrix to examine the compatibility of two discrete conditional probability matrices and give the corresponding joint probability matrix if they are compatible. For incompatible situations, we offer four methods to revise odds ratio matrices to find near joint probability matrices so that their conditional probability matrices are not far from the two given ones. That is, we provide four methods so that the sums of error squares are small. For each method, the sum of error squares may depend on the same reference point of two odds ratio matrices. We first discover by example that only the geometric method out of these four methods has a pattern to get the best reference point so that the sum of error squares is smallest. We then prove this finding in general. In addition, through simulation results, the geometric method would provide the smallest sum of error squares most often among these four methods. Hence, we suggest using geometric method. Its strategy to find the best reference point is also given.

國內外大部分的學者，探討法拍屋與市價的價差，存有極大的興趣，學者的文獻資料數量極為豐富。但對於從法拍市場取得後再出售的房地產價格效果，鮮少見有研究者著墨。更少的是有關存在於法拍市場與一般搜尋市場的兩次出售的價格比較研究。過去有關房地產的交易過程與成交價格關係的研究，不論是從法拍市場或一般搜尋市場取得後再出售的售價，部分的學者認為有受到定錨效應的影響有折價現象，而產生最後成交價的不同。傳統經濟學的假設，許多人以為「人是理性的」是必要的假設，其實是很大的誤解。事實上，傳統經濟學的模型在解釋經濟活動時，早已發現許多的「異常」現象。展望理論提出對傳統效率市場假說的批判，成功的將心理學導入經濟學領域，讓我們在解釋「異常」的現象時，多加上「人性」因素方面的考量，而使得解釋能力更為周延。本研究分析法拍屋拍定價格及一般搜尋市場投資者買入後再出售時價格比較。我們發現：在法拍市場與一般搜尋市場中，賣方訂定參考點存有不同的價差關係。這說明了，參考點存在於交昜過程中不同的時點，賣方依各個不同的參考點，在法拍市場與一般搜尋市場中決定最後的成交價。 / 研究結果發現，顯示在不同市場之法拍與一般搜尋市場中獲得房子，再出售之賣方訂定的各種參考點也存有顯著的差異性，在一般市場與法拍市場中均以最大可能成交價價差最為顯著。其次，研究同時發現在不同的市場景氣狀態中，賣方訂定參考點存有不同的價差關係，法拍與一般搜尋市場價格存有規避損失現象。賣方存有規避損失的訂價價格效果。深入訪談時發現，賣方出盈保虧的規避損失現象是一個十分普遍的現象。如果投資人對於已造成跌價損失的房地產不願輕易認賠脫手，表示投資人在有規避損失心態下，願意承擔風險，繼續持有該房地產。因此，在停損前，往往已下跌了相當的幅度；相反的，如果投資人對於已獲利的房地產很快的獲利了結，則表示停利前的上漲幅度有限，賣方為了得到正報酬，將依不同的參考點，調整不同的出售訂價。這個研究讓我們了解到「世事無絕對，視參考點而定」。參考點的選擇，對於我們的決策上會產生不同的結果。然而，面對參考點如此的多樣性，投資人於投資後，應避免只以購買價為決策參考點，以免造成損失。尤其在景氣低迷時期，在擬定銷售策略時，除了較難以改變區位條件外，應改變以價格為主要的行銷重點的方式，多提供買方相關外部資訊，滿足其需求，以縮短出售時的銷售期間。

給定聯合分配，可以容易地導出對應的條件分配。反之，給定條件分配的資訊，是否能導出對應的聯合分配呢？例如根據O. Paul et al.（1963，1968）對造成心血管疾病因素之追蹤研究，可得出咖啡量、吸菸量及是否有心血管疾病三者間的條件機率模型資料，是否能找到對應的聯合機率模型，以便可以更深入地研究三者之關係，是一個重要的議題。在選定參考點下，Chen（2010）提出以勝算比法找條件密度函數相容的充要條件，以及在相容性成立時，如何求得聯合分配。在二維中，當兩正值條件機率矩陣不相容時，郭俊佑（2013）以幾何平均法修正勝算比矩陣，並導出近似聯合分配，同時利用幾何平均法之特性，提出最佳參考點之選擇法則。本研究以二維的勝算比法為基礎，探討三維離散的相容性問題，獲得下列幾項結果：一、證明了三個三維條件機率矩陣相容的充要條件就是兩兩相容。二、當三維條件機率矩陣不相容時，利用幾何平均法導出近似聯合分配。三、利用兩兩相容的充要條件，導出三維條件機率矩陣相容的充要條件，並證明該充要條件與Chen的結果一致。四、在幾何平均法下，提出最少點法，有效率地找出最佳參考點，以產生總誤差最小的近似聯合分配。五、設計出程式檢驗三維條件機率矩陣是否相容，並找出最佳參考點，同時比較最少點法與窮舉法之間效率的差異。 / Given a joint distribution, we can easily derive the corresponding fully conditional distributions. Conversely, given fully conditional distributions, can we find out the corresponding joint distribution? For example, according to a longitudinal study of coronary heart disease risk factors by O. Paul et al. (1963, 1968), we obtain conditional probability model data among coffee intake, the number of cigarettes smoked and whether he/she has coronary heart disease or not. Whether we can find out the corresponding joint distribution is an important issue as the joint distribution may be used to do further analyses. Chen (2010) used odds ratio method to find a necessary and sufficient condition for their compatibility and also gave the corresponding joint distribution for compatible situations. When two positive discrete conditional distributions in two dimensions are incompatible, Kuo (2013) used a geometric mean method to modify odds ratio matrices and derived an approximate joint distribution. Kuo also provided a rule to find the best reference point when the geometric mean method is used. In this research, based on odds ratio method in two dimensions, we discuss their compatibility problems and obtain the following results on three-dimensional discrete cases. Firstly, we prove that a necessary and sufficient condition for the compatibility of three conditional probability matrices in three dimensions is pairwise compatible. Secondly, we extend Kuo’s method on two-dimensional cases to derive three-dimensional approximate joint distributions for incompatible situations. Thirdly, we derive a necessary and sufficient condition for the compatibility of three conditional probability matrices in three dimensions in terms of pairwise compatibility and also prove that this condition is consistent with Chen’s results. Fourthly, we provide a minimum-points method to efficiently find the best reference point and yield an approximate joint distribution such that total error is the smallest. Fifthly, we design a computer program to run three-dimensional discrete conditional probability matrices problems for compatibility and also compare the efficiency between minimum-points method and exhausting method.