本文目的在於探討普丁時期（2000-2012年）的俄喬關係發展。當面對內外環境的轉變，俄羅斯如何因應並調整對喬治亞的外交政策，以鞏固自身國家利益及國際地位？普丁主政的不同時期，俄羅斯與喬治亞兩國關係發展的過程與影響因素為何？經由文獻回顧，研究結果顯示俄喬關係發展在普丁時期每況愈下，影響兩國關係發展的主要因素為：喬治亞政權替換之影響、喬治亞欲加入北約的衝擊、薩卡希維利執政下的喬美合作、五日戰爭對俄喬關係之影響。 本文認為即便俄羅斯利用能源、經濟手段施加對喬治亞的影響力，然而俄羅斯未能解決喬治亞內部的民族分裂問題，因此導致喬治亞政府日益親向西方。雖然俄羅斯與喬治亞在外交關係交惡，相關研究數據仍然顯示喬治亞居民認為發展俄喬之間的經濟、政治關係相當重要。

本文目的在於探討喬治亞、烏克蘭與吉爾吉斯等三國，其政權替換的經過。政權替換為什麼會發生？這三個國家政權替換發生的情況有何不同？而反對勢力又是如何出現？一些共同的成功因素在個別國家有無程度上的不同？經由文獻回顧，作者指出這一波政權替換發生的主要因素：選舉競爭性的來源、反對勢力與政權正當性危機的出現、外國影響與獲得資訊能力。 本文認為這三個國家在面臨不同的背景條件與政治環境之下，透過選舉的舉行，使各個國家出現不同的反對勢力起源，形成對當權者的挑戰。而選舉舞弊造成統治者的正當性危機，加上在不同程度的資訊獲得能力影響下的群眾示威，導致政權危在旦夕。最後，示威群眾的策略與統治者的個人決斷，促成了政權替換。 / The purpose of this study is to explore the process of regime change in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. Why did regime change happen? What are the differences between these three cases? How did the opposition emerge? Did the common factors of successful regime change have varied degree in each country? Through a literature review, the author points out the main factors of this wave of regime change: the source of election competitiveness, the emergence of opposition vis-à-vis the regime legitimacy crisis, and foreign influence of information accessibility. The thesis argues that the elections held in these three countries with different backgrounds and political environments contributed to various origins of opposition forces against the authorities. Electoral frauds led to the crisis of regime legitimacy. In addition, under the influence of different level of information accessibility, public demonstration put the ruling regime into an imminent crisis. Finally, the strategies of mass protest and the incumbents’ decisions resulted in regime change.

上世紀末蘇聯的崩潰讓喬治亞的地緣政治產生了根本性的質變，喬治亞在歐亞大陸的地緣政治地位提升，較蘇聯時期更具有地緣政治價值。過去的喬治亞是蘇聯維護國家利益與國防安全的關鍵國家，它是蘇聯在黑海的門戶，高加索與中亞的進出口貿易都必須過境喬治亞，同時它也是蘇聯與北約之間的重要邊防區。然而，俄羅斯與喬治亞各自獨立之後，兩國的合作關係不復存在，雙方因劃界爭議、族群衝突、軍事基地等問題嫌隙日增，漸行漸遠。另一方面，美國亦來到裏海地區爭奪能源利益，喬治亞的通道位置與戰略價值吸引了美國的關注，喬治亞於是成為美、俄兩強進行地緣戰略競逐的舞台。 本文以地緣政治學與國際關係的現實主義論做為研究途徑，觀察俄、美兩國在喬治亞的戰略競逐。筆者首先藉由回顧地緣政治學理論與國際關係現實主義論，探討喬治亞的地緣政治價值、地緣政治要素以及喬治亞對於俄、美兩國的戰略意義。在正文的部分，筆者分別討論了俄羅斯與美國在喬治亞的地緣政治活動，以地緣利益、地緣政治威脅、地緣政治實踐等三個面向深入分析俄喬、美喬的雙邊關係。如俄、美與喬治亞的合作關係；俄、美在裏海能源利益的爭奪；俄、美對於喬治亞加入北約的立場；俄、美對玫瑰革命的立場以及俄、美與2008俄喬衝突的關係。 最後，本文的研究發現將俄、美在喬治亞的戰略競逐分為三個時期，第一個時期是俄羅斯掌握傳統影響力，美國進入裏海能源領域（1991～1996年）；第二個時期是美國積極經營，俄羅斯處於被動（1997～2003年）；第三個時期是美國掌控主動權，俄羅斯伺機反擊（2004～2009年）。在這三個時期，俄羅斯與美國在喬治亞的地緣政治影響力呈現此消彼長的態勢，俄羅斯無力阻止美國在喬治亞軍事、經濟、政治上的積極布局，俄羅斯步步退讓，逐漸喪失在喬治亞的地緣政治影響力。然而，2008年的俄喬衝突卻有了戲劇化的發展，俄、美在喬治亞的勢力重新洗牌，美國依舊擁有提比里斯政權的支持，與喬治亞進一步合作，繼續維護美國在喬治亞的地緣利益。俄羅斯雖然與提比里斯的關係低到冰點以下，但卻得到分離地區阿布哈茲與南奧塞梯亞的支持，俄羅斯透過與阿布哈茲和南奧塞梯亞的合作關係控制兩地，從而維繫在喬治亞的地緣利益與外高加索的地緣政治空間。未來，喬治亞預料仍將因其地緣政治的重要性，持續做為俄羅斯與美國地緣戰略競逐的重要舞台。 / The collapse of Soviet Union in the last century fundamentally changed the geopolitics of Georgia. Its geopolitical values in the Eurasian continent have been improved after the Soviet Union era. In the past, Georgia was a key country that Soviet Union utilized to maintain its country interest and defense security. It served as an entrance to the Black Sea for Soviet Union, as the import and export trading between Caucasus and Middle East relied on it. Meanwhile, it was also the critical sector between the Soviet Union and NATO. However, Russia and Georgia have stopped cooperation since their respective independence; both parties had ceased partnership due to issues of border demarcation, ethnic conflicts, military bases, etc. On the other hand, the United States also competed for its energy interest in the Caspian Sea region, and the passage and strategic values of Georgia has drawn attention of the United States. Georgia, therefore, has become a stage of geostrategic competition for the two superpowers that are the United States and Russia. This study utilizes the geopolitics and realism theory of the international relations as an approach to observe the strategic competition of the United States and Russia in the Georgia. First, I reviewed the geopolitics and realism theory of the international relations and discuss the geopolitical values and elements of Georgia, as well as its strategic meanings for the United States and Russia. In the thesis, the geopolitical activities of the United States and Russia are discussed respectively. The bilateral relations between Russia and Georgia, as well as the United States and Georgia are deeply analyzed in terms of geo-economic benefits, geopolitical threats and geopolitical practices, including the cooperative relations for Georgia with Russia and the United States; the competition for energy interest in the Caspian Sea region between the United States and Russia; the positions of the United States and Russia on joining NATO for Georgia; the positions of the United States and Russia on the Rose Revolution; and the conflict relations between Russia and the United States on the 2008 Russia-Georgia Conflict (South Ossetia War). Finally, the findings of this study divide the strategic competition of the United States and Russia in Georgia into three periods: The first period is that Russia had traditional power and the United States meddled in the Caspian Sea region for energy (1991~1996); the second period is that the United States operated actively while Russia operated passively (1997~2003); and the third period is during which the United States took the initiative while Russia waited for the opportune moment to counterattack (2004~2009). The geopolitical influences of the United States and Russia on Georgia have been constantly changed through these three periods. Russia was unable to strategically stop the military, political, economic plans of the United States in Georgia and had gradually lost its geopolitical influence on it. However, the conflicts between Russia and Georgia in 2008 had a dramatic development. The influences on Georgia of the United States and Russia have been changed again. While the United States have gained Tbilisi’s support to continue cooperation with Georgia to maintain the geo-economic benefits in Georgia, and while Russia has a bad relationship with Tbilisi, Russia has gained support from the two breakaway regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia controls these two regions by cooperating with them to maintain the geopolitical interest in Georgia and the geopolitical space in South Caucasus. Due to its geopolitical significance, it is expected that Georgia will continue to serve as a critical stage of the geostrategic competition between the United States and Russia.