本論文主要在探討現階段（1979年改革開放後）大陸城鎮地區勞動力失業問題，包括城鎮人力資源、公開性失業、下崗職工、冗員、隱性失業、勞動力低度運用問題，以及這些問題造成人力閑置、國民經濟損失之經濟分析。 人力資源是經濟發展過程中最重要的因素。充分開發利用人力資源，不僅是社會經濟的需要，也是勞動者自身生存和發展的需要。大陸城鎮人力資源呈穩定增長趨勢，就業人口到1998年末達到20,678萬人，占總就業人口29.6%。按人力資源充分開發利用的要求來看，在大陸城鎮地區還有相當的差距。主要表現在人力資源事實上存在一定的閑置。分為兩個方面來談： 一是城鎮存在大批失業人口。1992年以來大陸城鎮的登記失業人口一直保持上升趨勢，1998年登記失業人口為571萬人，登記失業率為3.1%。另外，按1995年1%人口抽樣調查資料計算結果， 1998年調查失業人口（其中包括從未工作和失去工作正尋找工作者）為1,145萬人，調查失業率為6.2%，相當於登記失業率的2倍。若再將下崗職工併入計算，則1998年城鎮真實失業人口測算為1,528萬人，真實失業率為6.9%。 其二是城鎮勞動力有相當部份是處於不充分就業（隱性失業）狀態。包括了企業等單位之冗員（富餘人員）、被迫（破產、停產）下崗職工、提前退休職工。據測算，目前大陸城鎮企業—主要是國有企業，隱性失業人口為3,207萬人，隱性失業率為15.1%。 綜上所述，失業造成人力資源的閑置（包括公開失業及隱性失業）達到了3,778萬人，人力閑置率為17.8%。另外，透過Okun’s law，可算出1998年真實失業率6.9%之下導致國民生產（GDP）的損失比重最高達到13%。失業問題可說是帶給中共當局及人民帶來極大的經濟負擔。 近年來，中共積極推動「再就業工程」政策，試圖照顧及安置失業和下崗職工再就業，實施以來，雖獲得相當之效果。不過，在執行過程中，由於存在來自政策、資金、社會及職工本身的許多障礙，使得效果大打折扣。基於此，提出擴大勞動力需求量、降低勞動力供給與健全勞動力市場三種途徑，配合社會保障制度之完善來解決大陸城鎮失業問題。 大陸政經環境變化一向牽動兩岸經貿的發展，蓋勞動面的因素（就業政策、工資結構和勞資糾紛秩序）更是台商投資大陸的關鍵動機，牽涉我國對兩岸互動政策的規劃。值此兩岸經貿愈趨頻繁之際，熟悉大陸城鎮勞動力就業現況與趨勢，乃是極為重要的課題之一。 / This essay is related to research the unemployment of labor force in urban areas of Mainland China after the reform in 1979. It includes urban’s labor resources, open unemployment, laid-off workers, supernumerary, disguised unemployment, labor utilized inadequately problems, and idleness as well as the economic analysis of GDP loss caused by these above problems. Human resource is the most important factor in economic developing process. Sufficiently utilizing human resource is not only the demand of social economy, but also that of labors’ existence and development. Human resource in urban areas of Mainland China is the steady rising trend so that the number of employed population archived 206,780,000 till the end of 1998, 29.6 percent of the total employed population. According to the request of sufficiently utilizing human resource, it is a quite gap, the existence of idleness in human resource, in urban areas of Mainland China. There are two main points detailed below: First, there are most unemployed population occurred in urban areas. From 1992, the registered unemployed people in urban areas still remain the rising trend. For example, the number of the registered unemployed people is 5,710,000 as well as the rate of the registered unemployed people is 3.1 percent in 1998. In addition, based on the outcome of the random sampling of one percent of people in 1995, the examined unemployed people in 1998 is 6.2 percent, equaled to twice of the registered unemployed rate. Thus, if calculated with laid-off workers, the number of the real unemployed population in urban areas in 1998 is approximately 15,280,000 and the real unemployment rate is 6.9 percent around. Secondly, there are fairly disguised unemployment happened in urban’s labor, included supernumerary, laid-off workers, and prematurely retired workers in enterprises. According to measure corporations in urban corporation of Mainland China, most is state-owned enterprise; the disguised unemployment is 32,070,000; the disguised unemployment rate is 15.1 percent. To summarize, the amount of the idleness of human resource caused by unemployment, included open and disguised ones, archives 37,780,000 and the rate of labor resources idleness is 17.8 percent. Moreover, the rate of GDP loss reached 13 percent under the real unemployed rate, 6.9 percent, in 1998 calculated by Okun’s law. Hence, the unemployed question brings the huge economic load for people and state of Mainland China. Recently, the state of Mainland China aggressively pushes “re-employment engineering“ policy. It tries to care and settle the unemployment and laid-off workers to re-employ in enterprise. Since accomplishing this policy, the outcome doesn’t very outstand obviously although it got some effects in fact, because there are many obstructions from policy, capital, society, and labors’ selves during the performing process. Consequently, this essay provides three ways, the expanding labor demand, the lowering labor supply, and establish labor market, to mach the social security system in order to perfectly solve the unemployed questions in urban areas of Mainland China. Any change of politic and economic environment must bring the development of cross-strait economy. Further, the factors from labor sides, such as the employed policy, the wage structure, and the strife discipline of labor relation, are main incentives of Formosan businessmen to invest in Mainland China since they are related to the cross-strait plan from Formosa to Mainland China. Thence, it’s one of the most courses to acquaint the current and trend of employed labors in urban areas of Mainland China upon the frequent cross-strait economy.

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration

本文旨在探討當前中國大陸城鎮職工與農民工等具有勞工性質的群體，其退休養老保險制度發展過程的政治經濟分析。所要回答的問題有三：一、中國大陸退休養老保險的歷史進程為何？有何特徵？二、中國大陸農民工與城鎮職工的退休養老保險制度現今運行情況為何？可能的整合方向是？三、中國大陸退休養老保險基金的財務當前運行情況是？有何隱憂？以上三點構成了本文的問題意識。 文中檢視中國大陸自1950年代所出臺的《中華人民共和國勞動保險條例》至今所有關於農民工與城鎮職工養老保險法規的演變，並比較2011年《社會保險法》出臺後，關於農民工與城鎮職工養老保險的實質發展。此外，本文以北京、上海、廣東、河南各省的「退休養老保險金的收支結餘」做為基礎，使用各省的「歷史債務」、「經濟發展水準」、「勞動力流動」等面向分析養老金區域失衡的原因與長期發展的隱憂，以歸納出當前中國大陸城鎮職工與農民工養老保險制度發展的個案省份分析。 本文發現，中國大陸農民工與城鎮職工養老保險的發展有著明顯的「路徑依賴」特徵，自《中華人民共和國勞動保險條例》出臺以降，關於中國大陸的社會保障歷經了單位保障到社會保險，最後則是具備中國特色的「社會統籌與個人帳戶相結合」制度的建立。關於中國大陸退休養老體制的改革過程是中國社會主義傳統下與改革開放後強調經濟發展相互激盪下的結果。 中共以戶籍制度作為區分城鄉勞工的主要手段，在社會福利制度上形成了差異化的現象。本文認為關於農民工的社會保障制度在過去的社會保險體系發展中乏善可陳，與受到政府保障的城鎮職工形成對比的現象。中共當局開始正視農民工的問題是在改革開放後所形成的龐大民工潮問題，隨著時間的推移，政府也必須替「第二代農民工」建設更公平的社會保障制度進而達成「城鎮化」的目標。 中國大陸的社會保障制度發展有著明顯的地域差異，其財政的制度也高度分權，具體反應在社會保障制度的改革上。北京、廣東與上海享受著改革開放以來的經濟成果，在吸引外來勞動人口上有著先天優勢，相對河南的人口外移有著明顯的對比。背後的意涵代表了富裕省份對於後發省份在社會保障資源上的「榨取」，不利於後發省份養老保險的長期發展。本文認為，2011年《社會保險法》出臺後，對於農民工的社會保障確實有所提昇，也使具有「穩定就業」身分的農民工納入到了城鎮職工養老保險體制內，不過仍然需要觀察其後具體的發展態勢。中國大陸之後的退休養老制度發展，本文認為應該要向實現「全國統籌」的目標邁進，也可以藉由中央分配養老金，使地區養老金收支不均的現象可以有效紓緩。 / This thesis aims to explore the characteristics of labor groups in China, which include urban workers and migrant workers. It also discusses the political economical analysis in the course of development for retirement pensions. There are three important questions that have to be addressed: First, what is the historical course on the Chinese retirement pension? What are the features? Second, how is the retirement pension run for urban workers and migrant workers today? What is the direction for integration? Third, what is the financial situation in running the pensions? Are there any concerns? Above three questions constitute the main issues that will be discussed in this thesis. It is evident that there are changes to today’s law and regulations of endowment insurance for urban and migrant workers. This thesis will use Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Henan province for “Balance of Revenues and Expenditure in Endowment Pension Insurance” as a basis. Also use each province’s “Debt records”, “Standard Economic Growth” “Labor Mobility”, etc. to analyze. In this thesis it also indicates the development of the endowment insurance for migrant workers and urban workers appears to be having a “path dependency” feature. China’s social security has gone from a unit security to a social security. The social welfare system creates a phenomenon of discrepancy in the system. This thesis deems that in the past, migrant workers’ social security reform development is not effective compared to the government security the urban workers received. The government must help “Second generation migrant workers” create a fair social security system and reach “urbanization” as a goal. China’s social security growth has a noticeable regional difference; there is also a high separation of powers in the finance system, which reacts on the reform for social security. Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai enjoy the economic gain after the reform, and attract many foreign labors, gives them dominant advantage. In contrast, Henan, there is big difference in number for migrate workers. Behind this, there is an implication that prosperous provinces create an “extortion” of resources to those less prosperous, meaning there is no care for their endowment insurance growth. Overall this system still has potential for improvement.