本研究針對房屋本身具有高度異質性、昂貴性、耐久性、低重複購買頻率、消費與投資雙重性等特性，使得一般行銷研究結果，套用在解釋購屋搜尋行為可能產生問題。但以往房屋市場之搜尋行為研究，多著重價格之搜尋，且忽略其他管道使用情形，難以全面窺視購屋者之搜尋行為，故本研究依據前述房屋主要的幾個特性，藉由回顧搜尋行為相關理論與文獻提出研究假說，透過存活分析法與多項邏輯特模型進行實證，重新審視購屋者之搜尋行為。 首先，考量房屋不同於一般消費性商品之特性，可能使得一般行銷研究結果，套用在解釋購屋搜尋行為時產生問題，故以存活分析探討這些特性對搜尋期間可能造成的影響。研究結果發現購屋目的顯著影響搜尋期間，且購屋者在搜尋時會同時重視產品與價格，其重視程度增加將拉長搜尋期間，而時間壓力對搜尋期間影響則不顯著。最後，透過仲介購屋之購屋者，因為可供考慮物件增多，且服務費用多寡與取得物件數量無關，因此，其搜尋期間較自行搜尋者增加。研究結果在實務上的意涵為，當景氣處於較低迷時，業者應多提供購屋者關於產品之外部資訊，特別是與家戶切身相關之房屋資訊，並極力避免價格戰，而仲介業者也應重新檢討目前的服務方式，以期達成協助購屋者迅速成交之企業訴求。 而房屋的消費與投資雙重性與經驗財之特性，使得個人對房價的認知與預期的差異，影響其搜尋期間，而產生有限理性之決策。本研究以存活分析探討個人目前房價認知與未來房價預期差異對搜尋期間的影響。結果顯示定錨效應確實影響購屋搜尋行為，在納入個人目前房價認知後，自住者對房價看法看漲者參考點較高，搜尋期間縮短，反之，看跌者搜尋期間較長。也就是對目前房價看法越樂觀，但對一年後房價看法悲觀者，其參考點向下修正幅度越高。研究結果主要貢獻在釐清購屋搜尋行為為有限理性決策，房價看法應由目前房價認知與未來房價預期共同構成，且未來房價預期有加強定錨效應的情況。 除前述特性以外，房屋尚有低重複購買頻率的特性，雖然相關研究證實經驗確實會影響搜尋期間，卻忽略租屋經驗可能造成的影響，特別是租屋搜尋與購屋搜尋有部分相似，但以往卻少有研究討論，更遑論深入分析兩種經驗個別對購屋搜尋行為的影響。本研究透過存活分析法，去探討購屋經驗、租屋經驗，對預售屋、成屋購屋搜尋行為的影響。研究結果顯示，就購買成屋部分，相對於無任何經驗之購屋搜尋者，租屋經驗與搜尋期間為正向關係，購屋經驗與搜尋期間為負向關係。而仲介服務則有助於提升中度經驗者之經驗水準，縮短其搜尋期間。就購買預售屋部分，僅購屋經驗有顯著負向影響，但租屋經驗似乎難以延伸至預售屋之購買。研究結果主要貢獻在於，釐清先前租屋經驗確實可延伸至本次的購屋搜尋，而購屋經驗對購屋搜尋期間之影響為負向，租屋經驗對搜尋期間影響為正向，且兩者對預售屋、成屋之購屋搜尋期間影響不同，故在進行分析與研究結論的引用時，應予以分別討論。 除探討搜尋期間外，本研究更針對含個人來源與商業來源不同管道對搜尋期間之影響進行討論。研究結果顯示，購屋者資訊搜尋管道之選擇，以商業來源與混合來源居多，且常使用含個人來源搜尋之購屋者，搜尋期間較有使用商業來源者短。此結果表示對購屋者而言，搜尋管道並非互斥，購屋者會努力使用不同管道去搜尋資訊，以降低決策之不確定性，且隱含購屋者對商業來源有一定程度的不信任。因此，建議業者除維持現有行銷管道，應加強口碑行銷，以提升溝通效率。 / House is a durable good with heterogeneity, expensiveness, and low liquidity, and also an investment and consumption product. Those characteristics made housing search behavior not to be applied appropriately from the general marketing research results. This dissertation employs search theory, behavior theory, survival analysis, and multinomial logit model to study four relative essays. The first essay tries to explain the difference between houses and consumer goods. Our research tested three hypotheses by questionnaires which investigated the person who is in charge family livelihood and bought house during 1998 and 2002 in Tai-chung. The three hypotheses have been confirmed. First, because the house is a good important to all family members, the search duration of the houses for self-living is longer than those for investment. Second, not only the price differences affect the search duration but also the product differences do; however, the influences of time pressure and purchase experience on search duration are not significant. Last but not least, because house searchers have more house selling information through brokers and no additional cost from visiting one more house, they prefer to extend their search duration compared to those who search by himself. The meaning of our research in practice is that the house seller should provide more product information to house buyer and give every effort to avoid price war. The second essay is to discuss how house searchers measure search costs and benefits with utility or price if they are rational decision-makers. We develop a hypothesis and a search model of indefinite and sampling without recall which integrates the studies on worker search, prospect theory, and search behavior. The data comes from “Taiwan Housing Demand Survey” and includes home-buyers and home-searchers from 2003Q1 to 2003Q4. The result shows that the buyers are bounded rational, and the stopping ratio has time dependency. The buyers tend to search for minimum price during the economic fluctuation. When the consumption buyers have a higher housing price perception, they also have a higher reference points, it makes them shorten their search duration. And their price expectation would enhance the anchoring effect. Searching more can bring the buyers benefits mainly from utility increase but not price discount. Therefore, it seems reasonable to subsume individual price perception and expectation when analyzing home-buyers’ search behaviors. The third essay focuses on the effects of homebuyers’ buying and renting experience on their search behaviors. The data also comes from “Taiwan Housing Demand Survey” and includes home-buyers and home-searchers from 2003Q1 to 2004Q1. The results show that our two hypotheses are supported. The effects of homebuyers’ prior house buying experience on search duration are different from their prior house renting experience. While buying a pre-sale or existing house, the buyers with renting experience have longer duration than the buyer with buying or non-experience. In addition, only buying experiences of homebuyers have positive relation with the search duration of pre-sale houses. The final essay has two goals. One is to explore how homebuyers choose information sources. The other is to examine the relationship between information sources and search duration. The data comes from “Taiwan Housing Demand Survey” and includes the questionnaires from sampled homebuyers of 2005Q3. We also use survival model to test our hypotheses. The results show that homebuyers incline to use the commercial sources and mix sources. Even the limit of personal source, it can reduce the buyers’ search duration. Therefore, in order to improve transaction efficiency, the firms should make use of their existing marketing channels and try to build good word-of-mouth as well.

近年來台灣房屋仲介市場可說發展的相當快速，許多賣方和買方常基於成本的考量，而透過仲介公司來買賣房屋。當然，委託給仲介公司來買賣房屋。其中可能主要因素即著眼於縮短交易的時間或者是提高成交的機率，本研究的整個重心將圍繞在賣方的訂價高低(底價)賣屋動機與房屋的屬性來解釋銷售期間和成交機率的高低，並且本文擬得用搜尋理論和代理人理論來詮釋房地產仲介市場的交易行為。 本研究主要分成六章，第一章為緒論。第二章從搜尋理論的觀點來研究訂價與成交價和銷售期間的關係。我們從賣方決定訂價之後，買方會依據訂價要求折扣率，而賣方也會決定一願意給買方的最小折扣率的角度出發，來建構房屋搜尋模型。由理論得知，賣方折扣率底線愈大，則預期銷售期間愈長；銷售期間愈長，則預期賣方折扣率底線愈低；搜尋成本愈大，則預期賣方折扣率底線愈小；買方要求折扣率分配的平均數愈大，則預期賣方折扣率底線愈大。在實證研究上，利用信義房屋仲介公司所提供的資料(1990－1993)，以銷售期間和訂價相對於成交價的比例為應變數，採用聯立方程式的方式來估計分析。實證結果發現上述幾項論點皆獲得驗證與支持。 第三章模型同時考慮賣方和仲介業的行為，一方面說明賣方搜尋成本和買方所要求折扣率分配對銷售期間和成交機率的影響，另一方面提供未來修正理論模型的基礎。利用存活分析法(survival analysis)來估計銷售期間。一方面，我們要探究影響房屋交易之銷售期間的可能原因為何？另一方面，我們也想了解銷售期間是否具有時間相依性(time dependence)，是否銷售期間越長者，越不易賣出？或越容易賣出？ 第四章利用logit模型來估計房屋成交的機率，由於危險模型為純粹之計量模型，而非由理論模型所導出，所以分配之假設將限制其估計模型與理論的關連性，而logit模型則無此問題，因此本研究亦嘗試用logit模型來做估計。 第五章利用代理與搜尋模型來分析賣方和仲介業間的行為關係。不同的仲介收費制度--固定百分比收費(fixed-percentage commission)、定額制(flat－fee)、代銷(consignment sale)，對雙方利益衝突的衝擊為何，是否潛藏著嚴重的道德危險(moral hazard)。透過本篇的分析，可瞭解何以固定百分比收費制度是台灣房屋仲介市場的收費趨勢。最後一章為結論與未來研究方向。 / This paper employs search theory to study the re1ationships between the list price, the transaction price,and marketing duration in the Taiwan real estate market. Theoretically, buyer uses the a set of criteria together,with the listing price to develop an offer which is based on a (guest) minimurn discount rate guideline form the listing price to determine a price that will be acceptable to the seller. We attempt to describe the impact of pricing strategies (seller's minimum discoun rate) and marketing duration by incorporating the minimurn discount rate in a search model. The derived search model indicates the presence of a positbive retalionship between the minimurn discount rate and marketing duration;an inverse relationship beteween marketing duration and munimurn discount rate; an inverse relationship between searching costs and mininurn discount rate; and a positive relationship between the buyer's average discount rate of distribution function and minimum discount rate. The study uses data collected during the l990-1993 time period and provided by Hsin Yi Realty Co., with the dependent variables being the marketing duration and the ratio of the listing price to the transaction price. A simultaneous equation is developed and used to analyze the following hypotheses: firstly, the higher the ratio of the listing price against the transaction price, the longer it takes to reach the marketing duraion; secondly, the longer it takes to reach the marketing duraion, the higher the ratio of the listing price against the transaction price; thirdly, the longer the period of consignment, the longer it takes to reach the marketing duration; and the fourth,if the seller is not in a hurry to sell,then the marketing duration becomes longer. Our empirical findings verify and support all the above stated analyses.

房屋貸款借款人對於其所負貸款債務的處分有兩種潛在風險行為，分別是提前清償及違約。這兩種借款人風險行為不管是對金融機構的資產管理，或是對近年在財務金融領域的不動產證券化而言，都是相當重要的探討議題，原因在於提前清償及違約帶來了利息收益與現金流量的不確定性，進而影響不動產抵押債權的價值。也就是為貸款承作機構、證券化保證機構及證券投資人帶來風險。 借款人決定提前清償及違約與否，除了與借款人自身特性及貸款條件有關外，尚受到隨時間經過而不斷變動的變數所影響，亦即許多影響因子並非維持在貸款起始點的狀態，而是會在貸款存續期間動態調整。進一步影響借款人行為，而這類變數即為時間相依變數(time –dependent variables，或time-varying variables)。因此，本研究利用便於處理時間相依變數的比例危險模型(Proportional Hazard Model)來分析借款人提前清償及違約風險行為，觀察借款人特徵、房屋型態、貸款條件及總體經濟等變數與借款人風險行為的關係。 實證結果顯示，借款人特徵部分的教育程度對提前清償及違約風險影響最為明顯，教育程度越高，越會提前清償，越低則較會違約。房屋型態則透天厝較非透天厝容易提前清償及違約。貸款條件中的貸款金額及貸款成數皆與違約為正相關，亦即利息負擔越重，借款人違約風險升高。總體經濟方面，借款人對利率變動最為敏感，反映利率代表借款人的資金成本，是驅動借款人提前清償及違約的財務動機與誘因。

本篇論文主要考慮成群資料的存活分析，其特點為群內個體間具有相關性，並假定群內個體具有相同但無法觀測到的事故傾向。首先，探討事故傾向服從任一連續分配時混合Weibull迴歸模式的特性，接著，推導出事故傾向服從血Inverse Gaussian吧時之混合Weibull模式，並介紹參數的估計問題。然後，推導出群內個體是否獨立之分數檢定統計量，以分別就兩種最常見的存活資料型態一完整型態與右設限型態：檢定模式中事故傾向的效應是否存在。最後，並以實例說明分數檢定之程序。 / In this paper, we study survival analysis for grouped data, where the within group correlations are considered. It is also assumed that individuals within the same group share a common but unobservable random frailty. First, we discuss the properties of the Weibull regression model mixed by any continuous distribution. Next, we derive an Inverse Gaussan mixture of Weibull regression model, and discuss the estimation problem. Then, we derive the score test for testing independence between components within the same group, where the two most common cases are discussed the complete data case and the right censoring case. Finally, the testing procedures are illustrated by two examples.

要創造顧客價值，首先需瞭解顧客。顧客是企業最重要的資產，企業應掌握該資產之性質與經濟意涵。本研究自此觀點出發，對個案公司之顧客資產提出四大問題：1.可能長期/短期往來客戶分辨及探討可能長期往來客戶是否一定是好客戶2.各區隔客戶的主要消費型態3.各區隔顧客與企業之獲利關係4.各區隔顧客之理財型態。本研究藉由此四大問題，串連時間、獲利與經濟行為構面進行分析與探討。本研究之資料取自某銀行信用卡部門二年期之月顧客資料。 　　本研究之發現說明如下： 　　1.以獲利與時間兩構面為區隔，發現長期往來之客戶不一定是好客戶。可能短期往來客戶亦有極佳之獲利潛能，但可能因為企業未能滿足需求或客戶有交換使用各家信用卡之行為、預算分配情況的影響，致使此類客戶未能成為忠實客戶，管理當局應深入調查這些顧客的行為，以利策略之擬定。 　　2.各區隔間有鮮明之行為特質。各區隔之所注重的消費層次不同，關心的議題可能不同，因此企業在行銷上注重的層面理應不同。 　　3.大多數之客群對獲利有顯著貢獻，顯示出大多數客戶是具有潛在利潤的客戶。 　　4.「一般交易需求者」為個案銀行之主要客戶，屬於極少拖欠帳款，或者是有支出預算之消費者，銀行只能自手續費獲利，因此，日常營運成本可能是關心重點，企業應力求成為此類顧客的主要銀行。 / Customer valuation is becoming a critical element in strategy development. It is built on the notation that the customer is the primary asset of the firm. The firm has a protfolio of customer assets that should be analyzed economically to determine their value to the firm. The four issues in this study relate to (1) identifying possible long-lived or short-lived customers and if those possible long-lived customers are necessarily profitable customers or not; (2) investigating consuming behavior of each segment; (3) understanding the profit relationship between the firm and customers; (4) establising financing behavior of each segment. This study is based on a monthly data from a large retail bank for two years. 　　Bellows are the illustation of the empirical findings in this study： 　　 1. Duration and customer profitability are two good dimensions of segmentation. Long-lived customers are not necessarily profitable customers. Short-lived customers have great potential in profitability, too. The firm may not fulfill their needs. Those customers may be butterflies, i.e., they like to use different banks’credit cards. On the other hand, some customers may have budget for their spending. The firm must investigate this phenomenon deeply, so as to plan their marketing strategy. 　　 2. Each segment concerns about different issues because they have distintive consuming behavior. So, the firm must have different marketing strategies for each segment. 　　 3. There is positive association between customers and the firm's profitability in most of the segments. This reveals that most customers are profitable. 　　 4. Tansistors are the domain customer type of the firm. They usually pay bills in time. Maybe, they have spending budget. The firm receives transation fees only. Under this condition, operation excellence is the key point. The firm must pay great efforts to become the domain bank of their customers.

房屋貸款保證保險制度可移轉部分違約風險予保險公司。然而，保險公司與金融機構在共同承擔風險之際，因房貸保證保險制度之施行，於提高貸款成數後，產生違約風險提高之矛盾現象；而估計保險之預期損失時，以目前尚無此制度下之違約數據估計損失額，將有錯估之可能。 本研究以二元邏吉斯特迴歸模型(Binary Logistic Regression Model)與存活分析(Survival Analysis)估計違約行為，並比較各模型間資料適合度及預測能力，進而單獨分析變數-貸款成數對違約率之邊際機率影響。以探討房貸保證保險施行後，因其對借款者信用增強而提高之貸款成數，所增加之違約風險。並評估金融機構因提高貸款成數後可能之違約風險變動，據以推估違約率數據，並根據房貸保證保險費率結構模型，計算可能之預期損失額，估算變動的保險費率。 實證結果發現，貸款成數與違約風險呈現顯著正相關，貸款成數增加，邊際影響呈遞增情形，違約率隨之遞增，而違約預期損失額亦同時上升。保險公司因預期損失額增加，為維持保費收入得以支付預期損失，其保險費率將明顯提升。故實施房屋貸款保證保險，因借款者信用增強而提高之貸款成數，將增加違約機率並對保險費率產生直接變動。 / Mortgage insurance system may transfer part of the default risk to insurance companies. However, the implementation of mortgage insurance system, on increasing loan to value ratio, the resulting increase default risk. And literatures estimate the expected loss without the default data, there will be misjudge. Our study constructs the binary logistic regression model and survival analysis to estimate the mortgage default behavior, and compare the data between the model fit and the predictive power. Analyzes the effect of loan to value ratio on the marginal probability of default rate. Furthermore, assess the financial institutions in the risk of default due to loan to value ratio changes. According to the estimated default rate data, we employ the mortgage insurance rate structural model to calculate the expected amount of loss and the changes in premium rates. Empirical results found loan to value ratio have a significant positive effect on borrowers’ default. Loan to value ratio increase, the marginal effect progressively increase, along with increasing default rates and expected default losses. Due to the ascendant expected loss, insurance companies increase premiums to cover the expected loss, the premium rate will be significantly improved. Therefore, the implementation of mortgage insurance, credit enhancement for the borrower to improve loan to value ratio, will increase the probability of default and insurance rates.