由於以往在願付價格的研究中，並未考慮到價格再高都願意支付的受訪者，以及價格再低都不願意支付的受訪者，因此可能會造成估計結果的偏差。本文除了沿用Tsai(2005)所建議採用的三要素混合模型，將受訪者區成價格再高都會願意付的人、願意付合理價格的人以及價格再低都不願意付的人等三類受訪者，且將願意付合理價格者的願付價格透過加速失敗模型(accelerated failure time model，簡稱AFT model)來作評估外，進一步就願意付合理價格的人可能會受到起價點的影響或是有「定錨效果」(anchoring effect)產生的問題來作探討，並就CVDFACTS的高血壓之願付價格資料來作實證分析。結果發現教育程度越高、收入越高以及男性對於能降低罹患心臟血管相關疾病新藥的願付價格也越高。此外我們也發現此筆資料確實有起價點偏誤(starting point bias)的情形。 / In the past, studies on willing-to-pay (WTP) usually assume that all the respondents are willing to pay a reasonable price for a non-market good. In reality, some of the respondents might be willing to pay a very high price, while some others unwilling to pay anything. Following Tsai(2005), we adopt a three-component mixture model to take into account these there three types of respondents and modeling those who are willing to pay a reasonable price with an accelerated failure time (AFT) model. In addition, with a slight modification, we also incorporate issues regarding “starting point bias” and “anchoring effect” into the model. An empirical study based on the data collected from “CVDFACTS” shows that males, respondents with higher educational level, and those with higher family income are willing to pay higher prices for a new hypertension treatment. In addition, it is quite likely that “starting point bias” exists in the dataset.

大型股過去一直被認為平均報酬率低於小型股，但如果從個股來看，不少大型股的績效並不會比指數差。考慮到一般非專業投資人在投資股票時，選擇大型股還是比小型股容易，本論文試圖建構一套在實務上較可行的大型個股選股策略—選擇市值第二大的股票，並定期調整個股。我們以美股標準普爾500指數中前兩大市值的股票，分為兩種投資組合做比較，結果發現，市值最大的股票不容易創造超額報酬，市值第二大的股票，反而締造極佳的超額報酬，此現象在過去3年、5年、10年，尤其較過去20年更為明顯。原因在於市值排名第二的股票，多半屬於排名仍在持續上升的成長股，這些個股基本面尚未到達頂點，故股價還會反應一段時間的基本面利多，採取類似動能策略(Momentum Strategy)的方法，報酬率容易超越指數；市值最大者則因為基本面普遍伴隨市值排名已經到頂，加上投資人對於排名第一的股票，多半易產生定錨效應(Anchoring Effect)，即認為股價可能已經反應其該有的價值，較難創造超額報酬，傾向賣出。故同樣投資大型股，選擇市值第二名的股票會優於第一名。 / According to The Size Effect Theory, small cap securities generally generate greater returns than those of large cap companies. However, this trend has involved into the difficulties of stock picking due to the large number of small caps. In this paper I propose a strategy against the size effect theory, “Second is Better”, to pick the second largest market value security as the single stock investment. I examine the performances of the No.1 and the No.2 largest market cap stocks in the S&P500 and apply a 6-month rebalance to construct two different portfolios, which is similar to the concept of Momentum Strategy that buy the past winners and sell the past losers. I find the No.2 stock outperforms than No.1 stock and generate amazing excess returns in the near mid-to-long-term periods. Because No.1 stocks are more likely to experience Momentum Crash than No.2 stocks due to investor’s anchoring bias as they believe the No.1 stock might have been peaked. No.2 stocks are usually in the growing stages that many investors believe the 2nd largest caps still yet to peak during market value expansion.

本研究目的，乃在運用試題反應理論中最大測驗訊息量的概念於精熟標準設定上作為探討的主軸，透過其歷史的演進與發展，衍生出詮釋本研究最大測驗訊息量法的三個面向，分別為：元素的搭配組合與調整、廣義測驗建構流程、多元效度等，並以此概念賦予解釋運用最大測驗訊息量於精熟標準設定時的合理性與適切性。同時，確立最大測驗訊息量法於公式意涵、試題選擇與統計考驗力面向的合理性，建立其於精熟標準上的理論基礎，而後，再輔以精熟/未精熟者分類一致性信度值以期提供多元效度證據。最後，探討測驗分數的轉換方法、差異能力描述，期能同時獲得量與質的測驗結果解釋。 綜整分析，可發現以下幾點結論： 一、運用最大測驗訊息量法於精熟標準設定時，在分類的信度指標上，顯示由此求得精熟標準，經交叉驗證後，大致可獲得滿意的結果，皆有高達九成以上的精確分類水準，且藉由區間的概念亦能充分顯現出，以最大測驗訊息量法求得之標準，可作為專家設定精熟標準時參考、判斷的優勢。而在分數轉換上，不論搭配換算古典測驗分數法或測驗特徵曲線構圖法時，其分類精熟/未精熟者的一致性表現，大致可獲得滿意的結果，乃是值得參照的組合策略。 二、在運用定錨點以解釋由最大測驗訊息量法於國中基本學力測驗求得之精熟標準時，可發現未精熟者乃僅需具備學科基礎知識與簡易圖示理解能力，而對於精熟者而言，則需進一步擁有對於廣泛學科知識的了解；複雜問題、資料與圖表詮釋；邏輯推理、分析實驗結果以獲得相關論點等能力，或者更高階之具備進階學科知識；綜合、評鑑資料、情境傳遞之訊息的能力。 三、探討測驗長度因素時，分析結果顯示不論採行最大測驗訊息量法、換算古典測驗分數法或是測驗特徵曲線構圖法，皆受此因素的影響，顯示測驗長度愈長，分類一致性愈高，此項結果乃與過去大多數的研究一致。另，由本資料分析結果乃建議測驗長度20題時，會是必備的基本題數要求值。此外，若從細部精確錯誤分類人數角度分析時，於實務用途上，可發現對於影響轉換分數時，產生差異分數的因素，決策者並不容易掌握與控制，但卻可藉由增加測驗長度，分散分數點的人數，以彌平錯誤分類的影響。 四、探討測驗異質性因素時，最大測驗訊息量法因具有因試題參數而調整估計受試者能力的特性，使得在異質測驗時，分類一致性仍能維持在不錯的水準之上。反觀換算古典測驗分數法與測驗特徵曲線構圖法，在固定精熟標準下，則有明顯的錯誤分類比率，此現象也反應出現行以固定60分作為及格(精熟)標準的缺失。 五、探討採用簡易測驗、困難測驗或常態測驗間於轉換分數上之效果時，由換算古典測驗分數法或測驗特徵曲線構圖法轉換來自最大測驗訊息量法之精熟標準時，資料分析結果顯示，不論於何種測驗難度類型中，採用何種轉換方式，並不會嚴重影響轉換分數間一致性分類的效果。另，若從細部精確錯誤分類人數角度分析時，本研究所採之最大測驗訊息量法，因具備隨測驗難易程度來決定門檻的特性，於簡易測驗中求得之精熟標準較低，而於困難測驗中求得之精熟標準相對較高，使得於轉換分數上，即使有較大的差異分數，亦不會造成嚴重的錯誤分類人數。 六、在探討測驗長度、測驗異質性因素與定錨點題目篩選間互動關係時，分析結果顯示，測驗長度與測驗異質性，並非是絕對影響定錨點題目篩選的因素，更重要的在於最大試題訊息量所對應之最適能力值是否能與定錨點相搭配。 綜整之，本研究所採最大測驗訊息量法，經檢驗後，於分類一致性上乃具有不錯的表現，且搭配相對強韌、嚴謹的理論支持與適切測驗結果解釋方法等，是最適合用於大型考試上使用。因此，乃建議未來政府單位或實務工作者於進行大型證照、資格檢定考試時，可考慮使用本策略。 / The purpose of this study is to adopt the concepts of IRT maximum test information to standard setting. At first, we are trying to discover three facets of interpretation in using the maximum test information to standard setting through the historical movement of standard setting. The three facets are component combination and adjustment, generalized test construction processes and multiple validities. Depending on these three concepts, we can easily explain the reasonableness and appropriateness of maximum test information approach. After that, we further investigate the reasonableness from the dimensions of definition of formula, item selections and statistical power to establish the basic theory of the maximum information approach in standard setting. In addition, we also examine the effects on exact classification of master/non-master in expectation to provide multiple evidences for validity. Finally, the method of classical test scores transformation and difference ability description are discussed to provide quantitative and qualitative test result interpretation simultaneously. In sum, some conclusions are proposed. 1.In applying the maximum test information approach to standard setting, the effect on exact classification of master/ non-master may come to a satisfying result. We may have at least 90% exact classification performance. At the same time, we also find that the mastery standard deriving from the maximum test information approach may have some advantages being a starting reference point for experts to adjust on the basis of the view of confidence interval. In the aspect of classical test scores transformation, no matter what approach you take, the transformed classical test scores approach or test characteristic curve mapping method, the consistency of exact classification of master/ non-master may hold. We may suggest the combination strategy is really worthy to take into consideration in standard setting. 2.In applying the anchor point to interpret Basic Competency Test result, we may find non-master only has basic academic knowledge and simple graph understanding ability, but for the master, he may need extensive academic knowledge; ability of complicated problems、data and graph interpretation; logic reasoning、analyzing experimental result to get related issues. Moreover, advanced academic knowledge; ability of synthesizing and evaluating information from data and surroundings are also included. 3.In the aspect of test length, the result of this research shows no matter what approach you take, maximum test information approach、transformed classical test scores approach or test characteristic curve mapping method, they are all influenced. It shows the longer test length, the higher consistency of exact classification of master/non-master. This result is consistent to most of the studies in the past. On the other hand, we suggest the 20 items is a fundamental value. Moreover, from the view of exact number of error classification, we can find that the real factor affecting the difference scores in transforming classical test score is unable to control in practical usage, but we can just disperse the numbers of people in each test score point to reduce the influence of error classification by increasing test length. 4.In the aspect of diverse test difficulty, because the maximum test information approach possesses the characteristic of examinees’ ability adjustment depending on item parameters, it is less influenced to maintain a acceptable level of consistent classification. In contrast with the maximum test information approach, the transformed classical test scores approach and test characteristic curve mapping method may have obvious high ratio of error classification under the fixed mastery standard. This also reflects the deficiency of current fixed 60 points passing scores. 5.In the aspect of analyzing the effect of score transformation between easy、hard and normal test, this research shows no matter what approach you take in any type of test difficulty, they may not severely influenced. Furthermore, from the view of exact number of error classification, because the maximum test information approach possesses the characteristic of deciding passing level depending on the degree of test difficulty (the lower mastery standard in easy test and the higher in hard test), it may not lead to a severe error classification even if there exists a large difference score in classical test score transformation. 6.In the aspect of interaction between test length、diverse test difficulty and anchor items selection, this research shows that test length and diverse test difficulty are not the real factors affecting anchor items selection. The more accurate cause is if the mastery standard deriving from the maximum test information approach may coordinate with the anchor point or not. In sum, the maximum test information approach may not only lead to a satisfying exact classification performance after analysis, but also be supported by strong and strict theory and accompany proper test result interpretation method. It is the most proper method in standard setting for large-sized test. Finally, we suggest the government or practitioners may consider adopting this strategy for future usage.

2005年4月號The Econonist 經濟學人週刊的封面刊登: 'Power at last - How the internet means the consumer really is king (and queen). ' 沒錯！消費者是國王的時代來臨了！消費者在網際網路上可以隨時隨地取得更多、更有價值的消費訊息，以極低的成本，應用網路中各種透明的消費資訊，任意的改變消費的抉擇，史無前例的表達出有別於過去被動接受產品的主動消費力量，消費利益也確實受到保護，因此以資訊為基礎的行銷策略就是消費者導向策略(Glazer,1997)，呼應了經濟學人週刊的聳動標題；本研究即証明了在獲得充分且有價值的消費資訊，對消費者在進行消費決策與行為時，是具有「主動的」改變力量，因此提供消費者更豐富的消費資訊，也必定能保護更多的消費者利益。 當新的資訊處理技術與傳播媒體出現，或是由某種新工藝的創造與發展，進而改變現存的政治、經濟與文化、風俗產生新的變遷將對消費行為，產生戲劇化影響(Innis, 1951; McLuhan, 1964)，原因在於消費者在面對嶄新而且陌生的消費環境，所採取維護自身消費利益的因應之道；本研究引用學者 Kahneman and . Tversky 提出的「預期理論」（Prospect Theory)，以及Barry Schwatz（2004）提出的「經驗效用」（Experienced Utility）、「期望效用」（）、「記憶效用」（Remembered Utility），因為以人類基於維護自身利益為出發點，方能準確反映出消費者的行為，洞察消費變化的先機；特別是在網際網路平台上對此議題的研究，本研究尚屬先例。 企業經營的成敗可由她與客戶關係的良莠顯現，衡量客戶關係最重要的指標就是：企業是否能由與消費者在消費流程互動中（關係），掌握所留下的足跡（資訊），加以解讀應用並促進消費者再消費，如此資訊的應用就是 Rashi Glazer所稱的企業「關鍵資產」，反映出不斷促進產品、服務交易的要素( Glazer,1997)：如果廠商忽視此變化，影響所及，失去的將不只是企業經營的「關鍵資產」，甚至還會被消費者「主動」的遺棄；因此，在企業經營的研究中，能將劇變如此的消費行為與決策，研究出可遵循與掌握的模式，相信對廠商競爭力的提升有莫大助益。 本研究的貢獻呈現在CORM-PET模式，也就是展現消費者是如何表達他「主動」消費力量的軌跡；試想，當企業發現消費者表示喜歡你的產品卻無消費行動，在過去對企業的影響並不明顯，因為同行也不知道何以如此（無資訊）！但是面對資訊處理能力百倍於過去的今天，能經由對資訊精準處理與應用，知道其中原因的廠商將嶄露頭角；CORM-PET模式就是我們提出能解釋消費行為何以如此的模式，以及能精確應用當前處理資訊的能力，解讀消費行為留下的資料轉為有力的應用資訊，幫助供需雙方在新興「資訊經濟時代」的市場交易中各取所需。 關鍵詞 消費者導向、預期理論、期望效用、記憶效用、經驗效用、稟賦效用、定錨效用、框架效用、消費風險、消費價值、頂端效用、可得性捷思法 / The front cover title of The Econonist magazine (April of 2005) read ' Power at last-How the internet means the consumer really is king (and queen). ' Consumers can obtain more valuable consumption information whenever and wherever in the internet, this shows unprecedentedly consumers’ active consumption strength which is different from their passively accepted the products in the past. Consumers can use the transparent price information in the network with the extremely low cost, and are free to choose any consumption. Consumption interests are also really protected, so the marketing tactics based on information are that consumers lead tactics (Glazer, 1997), which echoed the title of the The Econonist magazine. This research has proved that valuable and sufficient consumption information for consumer while making consumption decision provide active power of change. Therefore, offering more abundant consumption information to consumers can certainly protect more consumers’ interests. Enterprises’ relation with customers can reflect the success or failure of their management. The most important criteria of the relationship are whether both enterprises and consumers can keep enough track in the consumption procedure to facilitate the same consumer to consume again. This is what Glazer (1997) said ' key assets ' of enterprises, which reflect key elements to promote products, service trade constantly. If the owner ignores the fact that information changes consumption decision and behavior, he or she will lose not only ' key assets ' of enterprises, but also can be abandoned by consumers. So if academic research of enterprise management can figure out the model of drastic change of the consumer behavior and decision, which can be followed and grasped, manufacturer's competitiveness will be greatest improved. The change of consumption decision and behavior is because the consumer guided by information in the face of brand-new and strange consumption environment (network market) to adopt and safeguard self-consumption interests. Historian and mass communication scholar (Innis, 1951; McLuhan, 1964) point out such a change, as new materials treatment technology and media appear or new craft created and developed can change extant politics, economy, culture and custom. Other scholars maintain one after another that must extend the value concept of the customer in the past to apply to the business activity in the internet network (Keeney, 1999; Keeney, 1992; Rayport, Sviokla, 1994). All the scholars’ academic researches of mankind’s protect one's own interests over the years, the most excellent theories are 'Prospect Theory' by Kahneman ＆ Tversky. Schwatz’ (2004) 'Experienced Utility ', ' Expected Utility' , ' Remembered Utility '. We adopt the academic research of above-mentioned scholars, as the foundation of developing this research, because the academic research is based on mankind’s safeguarding one's own interests, which is different from others are on roles development. This research based on this kind of research to develop more concrete consumption behavior, especially the consumer behavior on the internet network platform, still belongs to the precedent. The contribution of the study appears in CORM-PET model, which represents how consumers express their initiatively consumption power. Just try to think that when the enterprises find that consumers like your products but not having the consuming action. There was not obvious in the past influence enterprises’ for the counterparts had no idea about the reasons. But information handling ability hundred times to the past today, the manufacturers who can process and apply with information accurately, and know the whys and wherefores will show up prominently. The CORM-PET model we proposed helps to explain how the consumer behavior like this pattern, dealing with information accurately, to understand the materials staying behind in consumer behavior transferring to powerful application information, to help both. Key words: Consumer orientation, Prospect theory, Expected utility, Remembered utility, Experienced utility, Endowment effect, Anchor effect, Framing effect, Consumer risk, Consumer value, Peak effect, Availability heuristics