幹細胞在組織器官再造中的價值已成共識，由幹細胞體外培養誘導的細胞、組織和器官，用於移植時可避免免疫排斥。未來，幹細胞將在組織工程領域搶盡頭采，逐步取代傳統的異體移植。因為成體幹細胞在人體內的數目通常不多，骨髓中每1 萬個到1 萬5 千個細胞才有一個造血幹細胞(hematopoietic stem cell)，必須要經過特殊的血球分離系統才能取得足夠量，目前醫界與學界所採用的血球分離儀器主要分為螢光細胞免疫分析儀(FACS)，另外，有鑑於使用者對於可攜式的需求加上半導體技術的成熟，目前還有一項全新的微導流技術被開發，因此對於幹細胞的研究，無論是胚胎幹細胞或是造血幹細胞，一個良好適用的血液分流系統都是必須而且重要的，我們也可以看見，隨著幹細胞的運用日趨廣泛，血液分流系統技術未來成長潛力更加可以預期。 本研究係採用SRI情境分析方式，透過包含學界及實務界的專家群會議，輔以腦力激盪的方法討論出關鍵決定因素與驅動力量，並以二個不確定軸面形成情境主軸，發展擴充成為情境內涵，再就各選定之情境(微導流領先，技術導向，美麗舊時光)內容進行SWOT及策略發展分析，並發展出細胞分流技術之市場及技術共同發展策略： 1. 積極推動幹細胞研究，增加市場需求。 2. 與國際同步建立儀器的確效與驗證模式，減少法規對於儀器的限制。 3. 積極推動產業的國際化，增加產業範疇 4. 積極發展奈米技術，同步提昇微小化技術與染色技術。 5. 流體與驅動技術的持續開發。 6. 光電偵測系統的研發方向。 7. 國家介入釋放舊的半導體製程技術。 關鍵字：SRI情境分析法，細胞分流技術，微導流技術，螢光細胞分析儀，情境預測，SWOT分析。 / Stem cell's value in the tissue engineering is given a new lease of life to has already become the common understanding, train the cell , tissue and organ from stem cell, can prevent the immunity from repelling when being used for transplanting. In the near future, the stem cell will rob the end to adopt in the field of tissue engineering, will replace traditional allograft to transplant progressively. Because body stem cell usually few figure having in human body, every ten thousand have a hematopoietic stem cell in the bone marrow, must pass the special cell sorting system to make enough quantity. No matter in clinical use or academic research use, fluorescence active cell sorting system is only way to separate stem cells from blood or bone marrow. For adding the maturity of the technology of the semiconductor to with the demand of the type, a brand-new cell sorting technology with micro fluidic system is developed at present, so the research to the stem cell, no matter embryo stem cell or hematopoietic stem cell, one good suitable cell sorting system must and important, we can see with application of stem cell being becoming extensive, cell sorting systematic technology grow up potentiality may it is expected future too. This research adopts SRI scenario analysis, through include academic researchers and expert groups of meeting, commercial end users, it produce the key decisive factor and drive strength to discuss so as to method that mental work agitate to complement, and with form the situation main shaft the 2 uncertain axle, development expands and becomes situation intension, selected situation content analyzed SWOT and tactics development each, erupt simultaneously and exhibit the market that the cell sorting technology and common development tactics of technology. In this research, our conclusions are as follows: 1. Actively prompt nano- technology research. 2. Actively promote stem-cell research. 3. Actively promote the research of cell's mark. 4. Develop monoclonal antibody commercialized channel and research. 5. Develop Micro fluidics and micro pumping system technology. 6. Develop the photo electricity detecting system. Key word: S R I scenario analysis methods, cell sorting system, micro fluidics system, fluorescence active cell sorting system, technology forecasting, scenario forecasting.

保險公司清償能力一直是保險監理的重心，在所有現行的制度中風險基礎資本是最重要的，但此項制度仍有其缺點，因此其他動態分析模型被許多學者所提出，如涉險值及情境分析。雖然這些動態分析模型被學者所偏好，但監理機關仍須對這些模型的精確程度加以了解，這也是本篇論文所要研究的目的。 基於此，本篇論文以模擬方式及經濟模型加以分析風險基礎資本、情境分析及涉險值等方法的破產預測的相對精確性。其中風險基礎資本完全採用現有NAIC的年報資料，情境分析及涉險值則採用我們所建立的模型，基於此也可以確認現有監理制度是否有缺失。 我們的結果發現風險基礎資本的預測能力很低，動態模型-情境分析及涉險值皆優於風險基礎資本，且在不同動態模型中涉險值的預測能力較好。因此可知被學者所偏好的動態分析模型應是未來保險監理的方向希望藉由本篇提供監理機關一個參考的依據。 / Solvency prediction of insurers has been the focus of insurance regulation. Among the solvency regulation systems, risked-based capital (RBC) is the most important but RBC still has some drawbacks. Thus, the dynamic financial analyses-scenario analysis and Value at Risk have been developed to be the regulation tool. Although, the scholars prefer the dynamic financial analysis, the regulators still want to make sure the accuracy of dynamic financial analysis. That is the purpose of our paper. Therefore, we use the simulation result and the econometric model to analyze the relative effectiveness of RBC, scenario and Value at Risk (VaR). The RBC is from the annual statement and the scenario and VaR come from our simulation model. Our result shows that the RBC has very low explanatory power, the dynamic financial analysis is better than RBC, and VaR outperform scenario analysis. Thus, we conclude that VaR is the way to go for property-casualty insurance regulators.