中、印兩國隔著喜馬拉雅山毗鄰而居的古文明大國，雖有共同的利益訴求與廣泛的合作基礎，但兩國要提升國家關係層次，實現政治經濟互動仍需跨越許多障礙。相互在戰略層次上受到大國戰略取向和政治博弈的嚴重牽制。在美國的戰略棋盤中，印度被視為在南亞地區牽制中國的重要力量，也是美國擴展經濟合作謀取利益的時機。印度方面因根深蒂固的獨立自主意識和大國思想，對國家利益和長期戰略的體認與運作，積亟促進經濟增長，加強軍備建設，特別是加強海、空軍力量，在印度洋上設立新海軍艦隊，立足印度洋，走向世界已成為印度國家戰略的重心。如上述顯示，中、印兩國的國家戰略和國際地位極為相似，這種相似性無疑是兩國基於自身的根本利益，將國家關係提升至戰略層次並推向新階段的前提。同時印度要想成為聯合國常任理事國，實現其地區和世界政治大國的夙願，中國的鼎立支持也不可或缺。 中、印兩國擁有大國崛起的充分潛質，從幅員、資源、人口、地緣、文明質素而言，均擁有崛起為亞太地區乃至全球大國的先決條件。尤其是印度已具控制印度洋及其海上咽喉要道的地緣優勢，這將成為崛起的戰略依托。分析中、印戰略關係發展上，其中有持中印「對手論」者，認為中、印將因為戰略上的競爭而無可避免成為對手；亦有持中印「合作論」者，認為中、印在經濟利益的趨使下，將成為合作夥伴；更有剖析兩國面臨的機遇與挑戰，認為兩國的交往及未來的發展，將是有「合作」更有「競爭」，也就是中、印競合論的觀點，個人的觀點較傾向後者。 邁進21世紀，最為全球矚目的是中、印兩國經濟的崛起，尤其引人關注的是兩國在軍事、經濟、外交、國防安全等戰略的競合論述與發展動向。中、印對外戰略都著眼於營造安全穩定、友善共贏的周邊環境；兩者目標均著眼於營造有利於發展的外部環境，以經濟社會發展為核心的國家戰略；就國際層面而言，作為超級強國的美國是影響印度國家發展的關鍵力量；就區域層面而言，中國是印度周邊最主要的大國，也是其最大的安全威脅；究竟是競爭大於合作，或是合作大於競爭，將是影響中、印關係未來發展的關鍵變數，同時將影響亞太地區安全，殊值關注與探討。 / China and India are two powerful countries of rich ancient civilizations separated by the Himalayas. Although there are seemingly more interaction and corporation between the two countries for a wide range of mutual interests, many obstacles are yet to be overcome in the political and economical regards. The United States of America plays a strongly influential role in the already complex relation between China and India. Strategically, America sees India as an important factor in controlling China’s power expansion into the South Asia. Economically, America is competing with China for the vast market in India. India is a fast rising country with strong national pride and powerful military forces, seeking to strengthen its dominating power in the India Ocean. Similarly, China is another nation, which is aiming to become the next world superpower. Moreover, as India is trying to become the UN Permanent member, a good relation with China is advantageous since the support from China would be essential in this case. Considering natural resources, culture, population and strategic location, China and India both demonstrate the great potential in becoming the leading powers in Asia and even the world; therefore, the relation between the two nations is especially delicate. China and India can be competitors or partners. Strategically, the competition between China and India is unavoidable while economically, the two nations are more likely to team up as partners. Into the 21st century, the whole world is watching the rise of China and India. The interactions between the two nations concerning military activity, economy, diplomacy and national security are also the hot topics to media and researchers’ studies. It seems that both nations are inclined to develop a good relation to create a win-win situation in the economical sense while a tight national security cannot be sacrificed. Internationally, America is the most influential country in affecting India’s development; however, locally, China can be a major threat to India, especially in the areas of national security and defense. Overall, China and India see each other more as competitors than partners. The development of Asia Pacific region is strongly related to the interaction and decisions made by China and India; therefore, the studies and discussions on China-India relation have become more and more important.

本論文試圖透過戰略三角政治研究途徑和克里姆林宮政治研究途徑，探討普欽時期的俄羅斯對美國政策。 蘇聯解體後，俄羅斯對外政策路線的走向，由葉里欽執政初期的一面倒向以美國為首的親西方之大西洋主義政策路線，轉向為葉里欽執政後期的拉攏中國抗衡美國的東西平衡對外政策路線；到了普欽執政時期，又重新定位為與美國進行戰略和解，進而進行戰略合作的全方位對外政策路線, 以擺脫俄中戰略協作夥伴關係所導致的戰略羈絆之制約。本文試圖探討，驅動普欽時期此一俄羅斯對美國政策路線轉變的內外在因素。 本論文認為，普欽執政期間，俄羅斯對美政策之形成，乃是在承襲葉里欽對外政策的遺緒，在普欽的強勢領導之下，俄羅斯之決策菁英，以俄羅斯的國家安全及國家利益為訴求，援引包括戰略三角互動、美國的政策與做為、俄羅斯經濟發展與政治生態互動等俄羅斯內外在環境因素，作為其政策辯論的依據，透過克里姆林宮政治的互動形塑而成。 上述假設命題可以引申出下列邏輯相關的子命題： 一•普欽的對美政策，受到包括戰略三角互動與美國的政策與做為等俄羅斯外在環境因素之影響形塑而成。 1999年普欽上台前夕，科索佛戰爭及北約戰略新概念的提出，加深了俄羅斯的安全疑慮；而2001年4月，美中軍機擦撞事件，則加深了中美關係的裂痕；此一發展促使俄中戰略夥伴關係趨於密切。2001年6月中國主導「上海合作組織」的成立，以及7月俄中睦鄰友好合作條約的簽訂，就是此一發展邏輯的結果。然而，隨著中國在□海地區爭霸戰中影響力的增長，有關中國威脅論的聲音，也在俄羅斯安全決策階層引起越來越多的迴響。而此一發展，則促使俄羅斯尋求與美國進行戰略和解，以防範中國之威脅。另一方面，蘇聯解體後，中國勢力快速崛起，美國不再視俄羅斯為其戰略對手，轉而防範中國之威脅。911事件之後，美國面臨反恐之戰以及分散油源之需求，小布希總統調整了對俄政策，讓普欽得以順利與美國進行戰略和解；從而，普欽得以擺脫俄中戰略協作夥伴關係所導致之戰略羈絆的制約。 二•普欽的對美政策，受到包括經濟發展考量與政治生態互動等俄羅斯內在環境因素之影響形塑而成。 面對俄羅斯國內的經濟窘境，普欽認為，唯有與美國進行戰略和解，才能儘快加入世界貿易組織、增加歐美的投資和援助、減輕外債負擔、從而促進經濟發展。另一方面，普欽的強勢領導地位以及務實的政治手腕，使得普欽得以操控國內政治生態的互動，主導俄羅斯國家安全概念的重新定位；從而，得以順利推動全方位對外政策路線，與美國進行戰略和解，藉以擺脫葉里欽後期所建立的俄中戰略協作夥伴關係所導致之戰略羈絆的制約。 / The purpose of this study is aimed at exploring Russia’s policy toward the United States under Bladimir Putin, 2000-2003. The strategic triangle politics approach and the Kremlin politics approach are applied in this study. After the Soviet Union’s collapse, Russia’s line of foreign policy had been shifted from the one-sided pro-Western Atlanticism in the early stage of Boris Yel’tsin’s administration toward the East-West balanced strategy, attempting to draw China on the same front against the United States, in the latter stage of Yel’tsin’s regime. After Putin had come to power, Russia’s line of foreign policy was reoriented as a comprehensive one, engaging in strategic reconciliation and strategic cooperation with the U.S. and, consequently, getting rid of the strategic entanglement resulted from the establishment of the partnership of strategic coordination between China and Russia. Against this background, this study attempts to investigate the internal and external factors that drive this shift in Russia’s line of foreign policy under Putin. The hypothesis of this study is as follows: Shadowed by Yel’tsin’s legacy of foreign policy and forged under Putin’s strong leadership, Russia’s policy toward the United States under Putin has been shaped by the interaction of Kremlin politics, engaged by Russian decision-making elites, who appeal to Russia’s national security and national interests in their policy debates, referring to Russia’s external and internal factors, such as the interaction of strategic triangle politics, the US policies and conduct, Russia’s economic developments, and domestic political ecological changes in Russia. This hypothesis can be further developed into the following logically consequential sub-propositions: 1•The formulation of Russia’s policy toward the United States under Putin has been driven by Russia’s external factors, such as the interaction of strategic triangle politics and the US policies and conduct. In the spring of 1999, on the eve of Putin’s coming to power, the breakout of War in Kosovo and the pronunciation of NATO’s new Strategic Concept had created serious concerns for Russians about their national security. And in April 2001, the collision of US-Chinese military aircrafts above the South China Sea had deepen the Sino-US fissures. Consequently, the development of these events had pushed closer the Partnership of Russo-Chinese Strategic Coordination. As a result, the creation of Chinese-initiated Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in June 2001 and the conclusion of the Treaty of Good-Neighborhood, Friendship and Cooperation between China and Russia in the following month were only a logical outcome. However, accompanying the growth of China’s influence in the area of Caspian Sea, the voice of “China threat” has received more and more attention in the circle of Russia’s national security decision-makers. These developments, in turn, had forced Russia to search for strategic reconciliation with the United States in order to prevent China from becoming a threat. On the other hand, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rapid rise of China’s influence, the United States no longer treat Russia as a strategic rival; instead, they shift their efforts to prevent China from becoming a threat. In the wake of the terrorist attack on 11 September 2001, in order to meet the needs for engaging campaigns against terrorism and for deconcentrating the sources of petroleum, President Bush has readjusted US policy toward Russian. As a consequence, these shifts in US policy provide Putin with a golden opportunity to engage in strategic reconciliation with the United States and thus get rid of strategic entanglements derived from the establishment of partnership of strategic coordination with China. 2•The formulation of Russia’s policy toward the United States under Putin has been driven by Russia’s internal factors, such as the economic development and the political ecological changes in Russia. In the face of Russia’s economic predicament, in Putin’s opinion, the only way to promote economic development is the strategic reconciliation with the United States, which will accelerate the process for Russia to obtain the access to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and in turn to gain the access to investments and financial assistance from the West and to lessen the burden of foreign loans. In addition, with his strong leadership and his pragmatic political skills, Putin has been able to maneuver the interaction of domestic political econlogies in favor of the reorientation of Russia’s concept of national security. As a result, Putin has been able to forge a comprehensive line of foreign policy and, accordingly, to conduct strategic reconciliation with the United States. Consequently, he has been able to get rid of the strategic entanglements derived from the establishment of partnership of strategic Coordination with China in the latter stage of Yel’tsin’s regime.

美國在第二次大戰后原希望將中國塑造成一強大統一之民主國家，作為美國安定亞洲 力量之盟邦。中共勢力坐大后，美國亦曾尋求與中共接近，以維持其在中國大陸之勢 力，但中共向蘇聯「一面倒」，以及隨後韓戰爆發之結果，使美國與中共關系冷凍廿 余年，珍寶島事件后，中蘇共反目成仇，美國與中共逐漸發展戰略關系，維當時雙方 戰略僅建立在對蘇聯威脅之共識，以及美國對中共可能遭受蘇聯攻擊所表示之關切上 。蘇聯在七十年代積極建立核武及傳統軍力，并不斷進行對外擴張之行動，使美國與 中共共同感受到蘇聯之威脅。阿富汗事件更促使美國與中共進一步將戰略關系發展到 軍事人員互訪及軍事合作之層面，在中共之推動下，美國、日本、中共、西歐聯合對 抗蘇之態勢逐漸形成。雷根政府初期，美國與中共因「臺灣問題」發生齟齬，惟美國 在維持與中共戰略關系之考慮下，同意與中共就「對臺軍售」問題達成協議，雙方訂 定「八一七公報」。美國與中共爭執之際，蘇聯向中共表示願改善雙方關系，一時之 間，使中共在美蘇之間左右逢源。中共為尋求和平環境，進行其「四化」政策，遂調 整其對外政策，建立「獨立自主」外交政策，與美、蘇同時維持良好關系。美國則與 中共在歷經一連串意見不合後，逐漸發展出穩定之關系。本文之目的，在于探討美國 與中共戰略關系在國際環境改變下演變之過程，以及美國與中共決策者推動雙方戰略 關系之構想，尤其注重雙方自正式建立外交關系，一直到雷根第一任任期結束為止， 由這一段雙方自建交初期彼此相互適應到建立較成熟之交往模式之過程，檢討美國與 中共戰略關系之演變。

核子武器是近代人類極具重要意義的發明之一。它的出現，提前結束了第二次世界大 戰，卻也為戰后的國際關系投注了更多的變數。核子武器可替代傳統武力，為國家推 行政策的工具；核能發電是石油以外主要的能源；核子科技能協助相關工業的發展， 因此許多國家視核子武器為國家防衛的后盾，核能為國家建設的動力。不過核武擴散 所形成核子戰爭的陰影，卻在人類心頭揮之不去。為了避免核子武器落入野心人士手 中，因此有更多國家投入禁止核武擴散的行列。本論文即在研究核武擴散的現象及國 際間禁止核武擴散的作為。 本論文的章節內容分配如下：第一章導論，說明研究動機、方法和架構；第二章介紹 核子武器擴散的概念，包括核武擴散的定義；核武、核能與國際防護的關系等；第三 章探討核武擴散的誘因和非誘因，并分析這些因素在一國發展核武決策中所占的地位 ；第四章分析第三世界中部分有潛力國家發展核武的情況，及對區域戰略關系的影響 ；第五章描述國際間為禁止核武擴散，加強核能和平用途所建構的國際體，其中兩大 重心為國際原子能總署和禁止核武擴散條約；第六章分析原能總署和禁止核武擴散條 約的成效。第七章結論。