本研究建構一社會網路互動下的新凱因斯動態隨機一般均衡模型，探討效用基礎下波茲曼分配背後的網路結構，以及，社會網路對新凱因斯動態隨機一般均衡模型參數的影響。根據本論文模擬結果，效用基礎下波茲曼分配背後所隱含的社會網路結構呈現局部區域性連結拓璞，此結論與熱力學對波茲曼分配中粒子互動方式的假設相同，然而，區域性連結之網路結構（如環狀網）並非目前實證研究所觀察到的網路型態（如冪分布網路或高群集係數之小世界網路），故吾人是否得以直接利用效用基礎下波茲曼分配來描述社會上人與人之間的互動現象必需更忱慎考量之。另外，社會網路互動也將使新凱因斯動態隨機一般均衡模型之參數估計產生偏誤，依本研究估計結果觀之，只要加入社會互動，總合需求曲線中實質利率之參數估計將為正號，即實質利率對產出缺口的影響為負向影響，也就是文獻上的投資儲蓄迷思(IS puzzle)，若進一步觀察社會網路結構對該實證迷思的影響則可發現當社會網路群聚程度越高時，該估計偏誤將越嚴重。 / We construct a social network-based New Keynesian DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) Model to investigate the underlying social network structure derived from the performance-based Boltzmann-Gibbs model, and thus interpret the process that social network structures affect the estimation bias in the New Keynesian DSGE framework. According to our simulation results, the underlying social network structure derived from the performance-based Boltzmann-Gibbs model should be local. This finding is consistent with the study of thermodynamics, which the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution is based upon, i.e. the local interaction. However, it contradicts not only the purpose of combining the performance-based Boltzmann-Gibbs machine and New Keynesian DSGE model, but also empirical studies of social network structures in the real world. Accordingly, maybe we have to consider further whether the performance-based Boltzmann-Gibbs machine is a suitable tool for calibrating social interaction under the stylized New Keynesian DSGE framework. Furthermore, if we embedded interaction behavior in the stylized New Keynesian model, the so-called “IS Puzzle” can be consequently observed. We also realized that “IS Puzzle” is connected with network structures. The more clustering the network structure is, the more significant “IS Puzzle” would be.

有鑑於歐洲各國的福利政策與福利支出相較於其他國家高，歐洲國家多會提供窮困與殘障的人民最基本的社會保障，一般人民亦可享受到基礎醫療保障，在失業時也可以領取失業補助；歐洲各政府甚至會收購即將倒閉的企業或者提供補助使企業能夠繼續經營。然而在持續延燒的歐債危機下，為維持歐元區普遍的薪資和福利水平，歐元區內國家開始採取了國家借貸的做法，但由於國際經濟形勢不佳，歐元區經濟增量未達預期，許多國家原有債券陸續到期，若無法借到新貸款，國家將面臨倒閉危機。因此本論文主要以動態隨機一般均衡模型(DSGE)，探討一個封閉經濟體系下，政府支出進入家計單位效用函數後，換言之政府支出變動將會影響家計單位消費的邊際效用，試著尋找能夠極大化社會福利的政府公債占國內生產毛額的最適比例。我們發現在提高政府公債占國內生產毛額比例時：家計單位將預期未來稅賦繳納之金額更高，因而減少消費、增加儲蓄，所以會排擠掉部分私人消費；同時政府必須提撥部分費用以支付債券利息，所以將排擠掉部分政府支出。另外隨政府公債占國內生產毛額比率上升，整體社會福利水準會逐漸下降；因此，我們認為最適政府公債占國內生產毛額比率應為零。 關鍵字：動態隨機一般均衡模型、政府支出、邊際效用、公債、國內生產毛額、社會福利水準 / In Euro zone, large spending obligations needed to support the welfare state and redistribute wealth in an effort to gain greater equality. Most European countries provide liberal social security benefits to the poor, disabled, basic medical needs and very liberal unemployment benefits. They also own and run large public companies. Under the ongoing Euro debt crisis, European governments figure out the way to maintain the high welfare level by increasing the public debt they hold. In our paper, we would like to investigate the optimal ratio of public debt to GDP by constructing a micro-based dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) under a closed economy. We focus on discussing the optimal ratio of public debt to GDP which maximizes social welfare in economy while putting the government expenditure into households’ utility. That is to say, the government expenditure will influence the marginal utilities of households. We find out that as a government decides to raise the debt to GDP ratio; it will crowd out both private consumption and government expenditure. Because households will expect to pay more tax in the future, they will decrease their consumption and increase their saving; high debt ratio means government should have paid more interest payment in the future. Also as the ratio of public debt to GDP rises, the social welfare becomes lower. Thus, in our findings, the optimal debt ratio to GDP should be 0. Keywords: DSGE, Government expenditure, Marginal utility, Public debt, GDP, Social welfare