武器在第三世界的擴散基本上是東西德冷戰下的產物，但並未隨冷戰結束 而告落幕，反而構成當今國際情勢中一股潛在的不穩定因子。一九九一年 海灣戰爭更凸顯了此一問題在國際安全事務中的重要性。 供應國籍接 受國基於各自利益及需求輸出及引進武器，加上第三世界若干國家本國武 器工業的發展，都是造成第三世界武器擴散愈演愈烈的原因。而除了傳統 武器之外，核生化武器及彈道飛彈等大規模毀滅性武器的逐漸擴散，更在 海灣戰爭之後成為國際間關切的焦點。因此在戰後要求加強對第三世界武 器擴散管制的呼籲及實際措施愈來愈多，惟其真正效果如何仍有待評估。 另外，第三世界武器擴散之勢在未來數年將更更為嚴重或趨於收歛，目前 亦難論斷。然而，如何避免使第三世界武器擴散成為影響國際局勢的不安 因素，並在同時得以兼顧第三世界國家的安全，則將是後冷戰時期世界各 國致力的目標。 本文架構係分為六章。第一章導論。第二章為第三世 界武器擴散的 現狀、特色及因素之分析。第三章為第三世界武器擴散與 區域情勢的關係，並以海灣戰爭為例加以說明。第四章為第三世界武器擴 散之管制，以供應國之輸出管制，接受國的區域性管制，及國際間的全球 性管制詳 述之。地五章係針對第三世界武器擴散的晚進發展進行分析， 指出近來助長及抑制第三世界武器擴散的成因及現象，並探討武器擴散與 第三世界安全及發展的相互關聯。地六章則為結論及簡評。文中並引用美 國武器管制暨裁軍總署、瑞典斯德哥爾摩國際和平研究所、及美國國會圖 書館國會研究處對全球及第三世界武器轉移的統計資料，來加強說明。

WMD (weapons of mass destruction) proliferation and nuclear terrorism are the gravest dangers that the world faces. The international society established counter proliferation regimes and export control systems to prevent the proliferators from acquiring WMD and the related commodities that can be used in producing the weapons. However, there are limitations in export control systems. The trade security and facilitation should be both considered, while the proliferators attempt to establish procurement networks to circumvent export control systems and globalization has introduced challenges from the emergence of increasing number of global corpora¬tions and increasing volume of dual-use trade. By using the data mining tool of link analysis, the thesis attempts to develop a methodology to increase the coerciveness and accuracy of detecting problematic shipments from ordinary export activities in order to improve the export control management. From the research, it suggests that data mining is a feasible solution to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of export control. It can be used for discovering entities with not only explicit but also implicit proliferation concerns from a large quantity of datasets and increase the cost and difficulties of circumventing export control so that the proliferation activities are to be contained or hindered. Based on the findings, the thesis established an export control management model with data-mining solutions.

北韓自1950年代起逐步建立其核武實力，形成對國際社會的嚴重威脅，基於其政權生存與經濟的需要，動輒以核武要脅國際社會換取能源、糧食援助及安全保障。1994年第一次北韓核武危機結束後，由於美國與北韓後續未確實履行核框架協議，從2002年10月北韓承認恢復其核計畫、美國開始停止對北韓供應重油起，北韓動作頻頻，除自2003年1月10日起宣佈退出禁止核子武器擴散條約外，更積極發展核武抗衡美國與國際社會，對相關國家的安全造成莫大影響，並期望藉此獲得所需的政治利益與經濟援助。北韓的行為引起國際關注，視之為第二次北韓核武危機。中共、南韓、日本、俄羅斯及美國對此均投以高度關注，努力謀求解決之道，而中共更是此次核武危機演變與發展的關鍵斡旋角色。 第二次北韓核武危機發生以來，中共對核武問題的解決發生了建設性的作用，各輪會談能夠持續運作，中共以穿梭外交遊走於各國功不可沒，其角色重要而多樣，儼然成為斡旋者、調停者、領導者、防衛者、緩衝器、利益攸關者、平衡者、機制建議者，若依北韓核武危機往良性發展的端倪來看，未來中共更可能兼具經濟支援者、安全保障者和制度監督者的角色。此次的核武危機為中共大國外交提供難得的歷史機運，藉由複雜的危機解決過程，緩和了危機的緊張態勢，更藉由與各國間的互動與合作，獲得實質外交進展，提高了中共的國際影響力，同時這樣的作為也是符合各方利益的最佳選擇。 本文主要包含兩大方向：首先探討第二次北韓核武危機的背景與判斷北韓發展核武的動機，繼之簡述兩次核武危機始末；接著統整自三邊會談、六方會談召開以來之情勢發展及與會各國互動形成的共識共決，分析中共居中的角色與其國家利益之間的關聯性，並研判該議題未來走向。 / Since 1950s North Korea has gradually built up its nuclear weapon capabilities, forming a serious threat to international community. Based on the need of regime survival and economy, North Korea frequently uses nuclear weapons in threatening international community for exchanges of energy, food aid and security assurances. After the end of the First North Korea Nuclear Crisis in 1994, US and North Korea did not actually carry out the Agreed Framework, North Korea confessed to restart its nuclear program in October 2002 while US suspended supplying heavy fuel oil to North Korea. In addition to its withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, North Korea also actively develops nuclear weapons to contend with the US and international community, bringing about huge impacts on the security of relative countries, hoping to exchange for more political benefit and economic assistance. The behavior of North Korea has raised international attention, regarding it as the Second North Korea Nuclear Crisis. China, South Korea, Japan, Russia and the US all pay high attention and work hard to seek for solutions to the crisis. China has played a key role in the evolution and development of the Second North Korea Nuclear Crisis. Since the inception of the 2nd North Korea Nuclear Crisis, China has turned out to be constructively pivotal in solving nuclear weapon problems. The fact that six rounds of talks can take place continuously go to China’s credit, which pursues shuttle diplomacy to coordinate the activities of the other six-party talks participators, playing roles that are important yet various, apparently becoming a mediator, good officer, host, defender, buffer, stakeholder, balancer, mechanism keeper, and, in viewing from the point that North Korea Nuclear Crisis has been developed toward a more positive direction, China will more than likely take key role as economic supporter, security guarantor and mechanism supervisor. This nuclear crisis provides China a rare historical opportunity of big-power diplomacy. Through complex crisis solving process to détente intense situation and the interaction and cooperation among Northeast Asian nations to obtain actual diplomatic progress, the influence of China has soared while such action is the best choice in complying with relative nation’s interests. The study mainly include two directions: At first the background of the Second North Korea Nuclear Crisis be reviewed and the motive of North Korea in developing nuclear weapon be determined. Then how the two nuclear crises began and ended are briefly stated, followed by integration of situation development since the Three-party talks, Six-party talks and the common agreement formed among participating nations. The role of China and relations to its interest is analyzed and thus the future direction of the issues is also carefully studied.