在面對市場強力競爭之下，許多企業為了達到永續經營的目的，往往藉由改善產品品質、降低生產成本以及加強產品的彈性與效能，以便創造出符合顧客需求的優良產品，進而提升市場競爭力。 本研究主要的對象為電源轉換器(Switch Power Supply)。該電源轉換器在運轉的過程中時常會有溫度過高的情況發生，進而影響顧客對於產品的滿意程度，因此希望藉由降低電源轉換器的溫升以及溫升變異，來提升產品的品質以增加顧客的滿意度。在本研究中利用田口方法以及實驗設計去規劃出適當的實驗流程與實驗方法，並且經由實驗來收集實驗數據，分別採用灰關聯分析、主成分灰關聯分析、模糊評估分析和倒傳遞類神經網路等四種方法進行實驗分析，以決定出最適因子水準組合。 根據工程經驗與實驗結果得知，電源轉換器內主要發熱零件為IC、T1、LF1和D7。最適組合之確認實驗與現況比較發現，雖然LF1的平均溫升約比現況高2℃左右，但是IC、T1和D7的平均溫升卻可以降低2∼4℃，而且這四個主要發熱零件的溫升標準差也都有大幅降低的現象，由於降低產品變異也會提昇產品品質，一旦產品品質提升了便能夠增加市場競爭力，並且增加顧客的購買意願，因此本研究所找出的最適外殼鑽孔形狀與矽膠片厚度組合的改善效果良好。

電子商務，這是在90年代才興起的經營模式。在過去的社會演進裡，人類從最早的農業經濟進步為製造經濟，一切以產品、品質為出發；隨著知識時代的來臨，製造不再只是一味大量生產，更為重要的是站在顧客角度思考，而慢慢從製造經濟轉變為服務經濟，以顧客的滿意為重。 以滿足顧客的需求來看，網路商店必須具備高效率、可授權的、動態的且反應速度快的特性。消費者需要個人化資訊來做決定，然而，這似乎都是現有電子商務網站所欠缺的。 本研究將會採用資料探勘、灰關聯分析、層級分析法與灰色預測來達成客製化的行銷策略、產生客觀的產品排名與客製化的產品排名，並加以預測客戶的喜好。 / E-commerce, it’s a new business model from 90’s. On the social evolution track, from agriculture economy to manufacture economy, product and quality is the spotlight. With the coming of knowledge era, manufacturing is not just mass-productive, this era’s spotlight is the customer satisfaction. The evolution track had moved from manufacture economy to service-oriented economy. If sellers want to meet customers’ need, it should had some features, such as efficient, empower, dynamic, quick response, and so forth. Customers need tailor-made information to make the purchasing decision. However, nowadays internet stores cannot meet this need. This research will utilize data-mining, grey relation analysis, analysis hierarchy process and grey perdition to draw up tailor-made marketing strategies, generating objective product ranking and tailor-mage product ranking, and predict customers’ preference trend.

摘 要 隨著產業全球化競爭磅礡，傳統產業在面臨顧客導向的趨勢下，如何研發更具競爭力的產品與提升產品的品質為其重要課題。 本研究主要以北縣某電子股份有限公司之電源轉換器(Switch Power Supply)為研究對象。本產品在研發過程中時常發生零件溫度過高，導致無法符合顧客規格需求的情形。經由現況了解、探討影響電源轉換器溫度過高的關鍵因素和實驗數據的收集後，本文分別採用田口方法、灰關聯分析、主成份灰關聯分析、灰決策、多屬性損失函數、有規格界限的多屬性損失函數和倒傳遞類神經網路等七種方法進行分析，以決定出降低電源轉換器溫升之最適零件水準組合及再現性。 經由最適零件水準組合之確認結果得到各零件平均溫升降低約5~10℃且溫升標準差降低約3~6℃，使得各零件溫升符合國家安全規定，而且改善後總不良率與期望損失均降低近三成以上。各種結果皆證實本研究可使產品品質大幅提升，並相信未來在市場佔有率和顧客滿意度上也皆能顯著增加。 關鍵字：參數設計、田口方法、灰關聯分析、灰決策、主成份分析、多屬性損失函數。

隨著工業發展而產生的環境污染問題，促成了綠色供應鏈管理的提倡，尤其歐盟公佈危害物質禁用指令 (RoHS) 和廢電機廢電子設備指令 (WEEE) 的法令，讓企業對於環境保護的責任要盡更多心力。在現有供應鏈上加入綠色的考量，對於公司而言勢必是一種新的挑戰與壓力，這中間存在著許多的不確定性，風險也變得越來越複雜，在經營的過程中不可能完全去除風險，一個不利事件的發生會使得企業在營運、績效表現、成本、品質上，造成負面影響及損失，因此對於風險更應該站在事先預防的角度來管理它。如果能適當地評估，依據風險對於公司的重要性、潛在反應及其嚴重性，得知風險控管的優先順序，才不會將資源浪費在發生機率很小、影響程度不大的風險因子上。 綠色供應鏈的實施會關係到上下游廠商，是一種整合、全面性的作業活動，從上游的採購原料、製造過程、到下游的回收動作，都必須要有綠色的考量，需要彼此互相整合才能成功實施，這當中也會產生許多的問題。由於危害物質限用指令 (RoHS) 有規定八大類的電子電機產品限制使用鎘、鉛、汞、六價鉻等物質，會影響到採購和製造階段；而廢電子電機設備指令 (WEEE) 有規定回收率和與回收再利用率，會影響到企業的回收階段。因此從不同角度出發，找出企業在綠色採購、綠色製造、回收當中，不同階段中可能衍生出的風險因子，如此才能做到完整的考量。 本研究建立整體的綠色供應鏈風險評估模式，探討企業在實施綠色供應鏈可能所衍生的風險，找出影響的風險因子，並透過失效模式與效應分析(FMEA)，加入模糊語意概念、灰關聯分析的方式，針對風險因子可能所帶來的嚴重性、發生度、難檢度進行分析評估，藉由計算出的風險值，可以排列出風險因子的風險大小，讓企業能知道控管的優先順序。 / Along with the industrial development has brought the environmental pollution question. Therefore green supply chain management was promoted. European Union announces the WEEE directive (Waste Electrical & Electronic Equipment) and RoHS directive (The Restriction of the use of Certain Hazardous Substances in Electrical and Electronic Equipment). These regulations make manufactures & retailers take charge of environment protection. The green consideration will be subsumed into the supply chain. It’s a new challenge and pressure for company. Because green supply chain management implies uncertainty, the risk will be become more and more complex. The company couldn’t remove risk. The occurrence of harmful event may cause cost, quality, performance negative affection and financial failure. The company should manage risk in advance. If the company can appropriately assess risk, according to the importance, severity, occurrence of risk, the company will get the priority of risk control, we won’t waste our resources on the risk that the occurrence probability is very small and influences degree is not very great. To implement the green supply chain will influence supplier, manufacturer, recycler and Name Brand Vendor. It’s a conformability and comprehensive activity. From supplier purchase raw material to Name Brand Vendor recycle the product, they all need a green consideration. They need the mutual conformity, so they can successfully implement the green supply chain. The RoHS has already ruled the restriction that Electrical and Electronic Equipment are limited to use Lead, Cadmium, Mercury, Hexavalent Chromium, Polybrominated Biphenyls, etc, and therefore will influence the purchase stage of business and the manufacturing stage of business. The WEEE regulation include recovery rate and recue/recycling rate, so will influence the return stage of business. We should assess risk from the different viewpoint, and find out risk factor of the purchase stage, the manufacturing stage of business, and therefore we can have a complete consideration. This research constructs the risk assessment model for green supply chain, and probes into influential risk factors when the company implements the green supply chain. This study based on Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) that combine fuzzy set theory and grey theory, to analyze severity, occurrence, detection of risk factor. Results of this study show that risk value of risk factor, the arrangement of risk factors and the priority of risk control.

不同股市的報酬關聯隨時間動態改變，本研究欲了解近期美國、台灣與亞太地區的中國大陸、香港、日本及韓國的報酬連動關係，並進一步觀察次級房貸風暴期間美股對這些地區的關聯改變趨勢。本論文採用灰色理論與時間序列兩種方法，實證發現次級房貸風暴發生期間，台股及亞太地區主要指數不論在報酬率或是報酬率波動性受美股影響的程度大多增強。 實證結果顯示，在風暴期間的報酬率傳導關係，亞太以韓國影響台股最顯著，美股則全面影響亞太指數；在報酬率波動性溢傳上，亞太以日本、美股以道瓊工業影響台股最強，台股則是電子類股被美股影響最重，但營建類股在與美股或是亞太指數的關聯趨勢變化卻最明顯。另外，灰關聯分析對時間序列檢定的關聯組合可以提供互補的關聯強弱關係說明，且具有相當的正確性。 / Connections between stock markets are dynamically changing, and it affects investor's transnational investment portfolio. We focus on the relationships of stock markets among the United States, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, China and Hong Kong, and eager to understand the connection tendency between Untied States and Asian-Pacific area during the subprime mortgage crisis period. The identified research methods are time series and grey theory, including Granger causality test, GARCH model and grey relational analysis. We find out the returns and volatility in Asian-Pacific stock markets were all affected increasly by U.S. market during the subprime mortgage crisis. The main empirical results are as follows: In the relationships of returns, Korea affects Taiwan mostly in the Asian-Pacific area, and U.S. market affects all the others entirely during the subprime crisis. In the relationships of volatility, Japan and Dow Jones index affects Taiwan deeply during the period; within all the Taiwan indexs, Electronic Sector Index was affected by the U.S. market mostly than others during the same period, but the connection tendency in the Construction Sector Index with other markets changes more obviously. Otherwise, grey relational analysis can provide complementary explainations as compared to time sereies in the strength of relationships, and the explainations are with plenty credibility.