強制性財務預測揭露制度已實施十多年，惟財務預測品質不佳、管理當局刻意操縱財務預測以影響股價等問題遲遲無法解決，致金管會乃決定自2005起廢止舊制，改採自願性財務預測揭露制度。本次改革除符合國際做法之外，並期望能達到降低公司財務預測成本、提高預測準確度，以及健全預測資訊公開之環境。 2005年為實施自願性財務預測揭露制度之第一個年度，當年上市（櫃）公司中，只有約6%的公司自願公開其財務預測。本研究認為，對投資人而言，財務預測既為有用資訊，為何願意公開財務預測的公司卻如此少呢？故本研究欲辨認左右公司是否公開財務預測行為之因素。 本研究設立七項與管理當局自願性揭露財務預測有關之決定因素─內部人持股比率、資本結構、資金需求、經營績效、盈餘波動性、權益資金成本，以及外資持股率，並以公司規模、產業、負債對權益比率為控制變數。研究樣本為2005年之上市(櫃)公司，將其分成兩組，ㄧ組為當年度自願揭露財務預測之公司，另ㄧ組則為當年度未曾揭露財務預測之公司，運用logit進行迴歸分析。 實證分析結果顯示，揭露與不揭露財務預測公司之主要不同特質，在於：公司過去經營績效之好壞及外資對公司之持股比率。過去經營績效較佳之公司，其主動揭露財務預測資訊給外界之機率較高；外資持股比率越高之公司，其主動揭露財務預測給外界之機率較高。 / This study examines the factors that affect managers to disclosure financial forecasts. Seven potential factors were compared for a sample of firms that reported forecasts and another sample of firms that did not release this information. The seven factors are: (1) the proportion of inside ownership, (2) capital structure, (3) the demand for external finance, (4) the business performance, (5) earnings volatility, (6) the cost of equity capital, (7) the proportion of foreign ownership. There are three control variables, including size, industry and the ratio of debt to equity. The findings report that the better the past business performance is, the more the probability that the manager will voluntarily disclose financial forecast is. The findings also report that the higher the proportion of foreign ownership is, the more willing the manager is to voluntarily disclose financial forecast.

本研究以中國大陸2003年所推動之XBRL自願申報計畫為例，探討率先以XBRL格式申報財務資訊之企業，相較於未率先申報之企業，其經營績效之表現是否較佳？並進一步檢視企業率先申報XBRL之行為與各經營績效層面之關聯性。研究樣本為2000年至2009年於上海證券交易所上市之90家公司，分為兩個群組：一組為參與自願申報計畫之公司共45家，另一組為未參與申報計畫之對照組。在經營績效之衡量部分，本研究依據國內外之文獻探討，將經營績效區分為五個衡量層面：長期償債能力、流動性、獲利能力、經營效率與成長力，並分別以負債比率、流動比率、純益率、股東權益報酬率、總資產週轉率與營收成長率等財務比率做為各層面之衡量指標。 本研究之實證結果顯示，負債比率、流動比率、純益率、股東權益報酬率與總資產週轉率皆呈現顯著相關，證明率先以XBRL格式申報財務資訊之企業群組，在長期償債能力、流動性、獲利能力與經營效率方面之表現皆優於對照組。期望此研究結果能提供資本市場一有用訊息，做為投資人形成投資決策時之參考。 / In 2003, Shanghai Stock Exchange of China promoted a program encouraging companies to voluntarily file financial information using XBRL format. This paper examines whether these early and voluntary filers of financial information in XBRL format demonstrate superior operating performance relative to their non-adopting peers. Samples of this study include 90 listed companies of Shanghai Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2009. Half of them are voluntary filers and the others are the non-adopting peers. The measure of operating performance is divided into five levels: long-term solvency, liquidity, profitability, operating efficiency and growth capacity. Debt ratio, current ratio, net profit margin, return on equity, total assets turnover and sales growth rate are used as the indicators of these measurement levels, respectively. The empirical results of this study show that debt ratio, current ratio, net profit margin, return on equity and total assets turnover are significant, which mean that early and voluntary filers of financial information in XBRL format have superior performance in long-term solvency, liquidity, profitability and operating efficiency. These findings should provide a useful message to the capital market, as investors concern when forming investment decisions.