隨著台灣地區對外籍配偶政策逐步開放，所帶來台灣地區人民與國外聯姻所佔的比重增加外，另一方面，因外籍新娘所伴隨語言的隔閡文化的融合、薄弱婚姻基礎、社會接納度及支持網絡不夠、就業福利、輔導措施、子女教養甚或與上一代相處等三代之代際問題，使得異國婚姻的離婚率也悄悄升高，連帶地促使台灣地區離婚問題更趨嚴重複雜。尤其外籍配偶離婚問題，其所衍生複雜之家庭、社會甚至影響國家形象等層面問題，不若本國籍離婚案例單純，已成為學者、專家極度關注的議題。 本研究目的係期以2001至2003年台灣地區各縣市離婚率的追蹤資料（panel data）進行分析，探討以下問題：一、分析與瞭解台灣地區縣市別離婚率與外籍配偶分布趨勢之間的關係，並比較其差異；二、探究影響台灣地區離婚率升高的決定因素。三、對目前台灣外籍配偶政策提供具體的建議。 經由計量模型估計結果發現，外籍配偶佔有偶婦女比率越高之縣市，其離婚率較高，有顯著正相關之影響，其中外籍新娘以大陸配偶比重越高之縣市，較東南亞及其他國籍者，與離婚率呈現高度正相關；若從時間趨勢來看，2003年台灣地區的離婚率，相對2001年基期水準，會較2002年有顯著增加效果；東部區域較北部、中部與南部區域的縣市，在外籍配偶對其離婚率影響，相對較高；行政區劃的部分市又高於縣。 綜上，外籍配偶是影響台灣地區各縣市別離婚率之相當重要因素，然而外籍配偶政策與降低離婚率等，皆有賴政府正視問題有所作為，並管制成效予以改善。 / As the Taiwan’s policies toward foreign spouses have been gradually liberalized, the proportion of Taiwanese people marrying foreign spouses has increased. However, language barriers, cultural assimilations, fragile marriage foundation, the lack of social acceptance and a support network, career welfare, assistance measures, children’s education and the inter-generation issues among the previous, the current, and the next generations have slightly raised the divorce rate of international marriages, and further, worsened and complicated the divorce issues in Taiwan. Issues derived from the divorce of foreign spouses in particular, such as complicated families and negative impact on the social or national image, are not as simple as the domestic divorce cases, and have thus become the focus of scholars and experts. Based on the panel data of the divorce rate in every city and county in Taiwan collected during 2001 and 2003, this study aims to investigate the following issues: (1) to analyze the relation of divorce rate and the distribution of foreign spouses in every region, and compare the differences; (2) to investigate the decisive factors in raising the divorce rate in Taiwan; (3) to provide substantial suggestions for current policies toward foreign spouses. The estimation made through a metric model shows regions with a higher proportion of foreign spouses have a higher divorce rate. And the effect is positively correlated. And regions with a higher proportion of foreign spouses from Mainland China than from Southeast Asia nations or others have a higher divorce rate. This proportion is highly correlated to divorce rate. In terms of time period, compared with the base standard of the 2001, the divorce rate in Taiwan in 2003 is significantly higher than that in 2002. The effect of foreign spouses on the divorce rate is relatively higher in eastern regions than in northern, central, and southern regions. As to administrative divisions, the rate is higher in cities than in counties. To sum up, foreign spouse is an important factor in the divorce rate in every region in Taiwan. However, policies toward foreign spouses and the reduction of divorce rate depend on how the government resolves these issues and improves the performance of the liberalization. Key word： Divorce rate、Taiwan area、Foreign Spouse。

本研究之主要目的在探討臺灣地區婦女之教育、就業、生育及人口流動與 離婚率的關係，並預測未來五年之離婚率。 本研究以臺灣地區廿三縣 市為樣本，資料來源為「中華民國統計年鑑」及「中華民國臺閩地區人口 統計」。以皮爾遜積差相關係數、單因子變異數分析及多元迴歸探討婦女 教育、就業、生育及人口流動與離婚率之關係；並以自我迴歸整合移動平 均模式來分析預測未來五年之離婚率。本研究的主要發現為：１．在婦女 教育方面：高中及大學教育女性比例愈高的縣市，其離婚率也愈高；而國 中畢女性比例、小學畢女性比例及婦女識字率，則與離婚率無關。２．在 婦女就業方面：婦女整體就業率與離婚率無關。但若從行業別而言，從事 第三類行業的婦女愈多，離婚率愈高。若就職業而言，從事監督、佐理工 作之婦女愈多，離婚率愈高；而從事農、林、漁、牧、狩獵工作之婦女愈 多，離婚率則愈低。３．在生育率方面：一般生育率愈高，離婚率愈低； 並且，大專以上畢業婦女生育率也與離婚率成反比。４．在人口流動方面 ：人口總移動率與離婚率成反比。５．在迴歸分析方面：大學畢女性比例 、高中畢女性比例、監督佐理人員女性比例、農林漁牧工作人員女性比例 、一般生育率、大專畢業育齡婦女生育率、及人口總移動率等七個指標均 對離婚率有顯著影響。６．未來五年之離婚率，呈逐年上升趨勢。