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This thesis presents a new perspective on the study of past farm success and failure; it builds on the concepts of resilience and vulnerability to construct a theoretical framework which integrates environmental, historical and ethnographical data. The basic framework establishes that the resilience or vulnerability of a social-ecological system is a function of three factors: i) the exposure of the system to external (environmental) stresses, ii) the sensitivity of the system to these stresses and iii) the ability of the human component of the system to respond to them. The research focused on the component of human capacity of response (the sum of coping and adaptive capacity) within this framework. The temporal scale of the study was the 18th century, although reference is made to earlier periods for comparison. The location of the study area was Mývatnssveit, a livestock-based farming community in northern Iceland, while the spatial scale of the study is that of individual farms in the area. The results showed that successful farms had a higher capacity of response than failed farms, and that this was conferred by a greater availability and quality of resources, including human resources, natural resources and productive resources (those directly involved in agriculture). Human resources were assessed by records of number of servants per farm and by evidence of learning/knowledge transfer obtained via micromorphological analyses of home-field soils. Natural resources considered to be of particular importance were fish and eggs. Indicators of productive resources included tax value, land rent, livestock numbers and phosphorus content in home-fields. The latter revealed that the soil condition pre-settlement was linked to its post-settlement quality. An analysis of present day perceptions of historical farm abandonment in the area corresponds with the conclusions reached through the data integration in placing the human factor above the environmental one in influencing success and failure. The thesis concludes by highlighting the individuality of the study farms and the historical resilience of the livestock-based farming system. Additionally, areas of potential for future research are identified.

This thesis examines the susceptibility of human health to climate-related stresses in the rural municipality of Addington Highlands, Ontario. Human health is sensitive to climatic variations and change, and public health systems play a role in managing climate-related risks. Canada is generally deemed to have considerable capacity to adapt to vulnerabilities associated with climate change, yet there is variability among communities in their exposure and ability to manage health risks. This thesis examines the health-related vulnerability of the community of Addington Highlands. Drawing upon data gained from key informant interviews and newspaper articles, as well as other secondary data sources, the thesis documents climate-related health risks, outlines the programs and services available to deal with those risks, and assesses the capacity of the community to adapt to future climate conditions and risks. Conditions such as storms, heat stress and forest fires currently present health risks in the area, and they are expected to become more prevalent with climate change. The health risks of Lyme disease, West Nile virus and algal blooms are likely to increase in the future as the climate continues to change. Adaptation to these risks is evident in several of Addington Highlands public health and emergency management programs. The community’s adaptive capacity is strengthened by its social networks and institutional flexibility, but it is constrained by its aging population, limits to the availability and access to health care services, and challenges relating to the retention of service providers. An important strategy to assist adaptation to climate change risks to health is the promotion of public awareness, a strategy to which this research contributes. This thesis research serves to identify and better understand vulnerabilities, and help stimulate actions toward preparing Addington Highlands for possible future climate-related risks.

Throughout northern Fennoscandia, reindeer husbandry is a central part in the cultural heritage of the Sámi people. In its history, Sámi culture and reindeer husbandry have undergone significant adaptations to environmental, social and political challenges. Landscape changes on the winter grazing grounds were mainly driven by resource exploitation, especially by industrialized forestry. Important grazing resources were lost, i.e. terrestrial and arboreal lichens that constitute essential key elements in the herding year. In my thesis, I explore the consequences of these transformations in Swedish boreal forests for reindeer husbandry. The multi-disciplinary approach integrates interview studies, ecological fieldwork and theoretical modeling of forest development. I emphasize the understanding of landscapes as multi-dimensional concepts with ecological, social and economic components. They interact in determining the amount of landscape fragmentation in physical or administrative ways, or in enabling reindeer herders to move between different landscape elements. These elements, e.g. forest stands of different ages, can react differently to winter weather. Thus, they enable reindeer herders to adjust their grazing grounds according to the availability of forage, mediated by snow conditions. However, forestry practices have reduced the abundance of old-growth forests, and therewith the functionality of the landscape. By comparing snow conditions in different forest types, I show that multi-layered canopies can offer a more diverse pattern of snow hardness. However, the interaction between forest characteristics with snow is strongly dependent on weather conditions, e.g. the timing and intensity of warm spells. The prevalence of single-layered forest stands therefore can lead to a reduction in snow variability and potentially restricts the availability of suitable grazing grounds for reindeer. If snow conditions hinder reindeer in foraging on terrestrial lichens, old forests formerly supplied reindeer with arboreal lichens. I show how industrial forestry has reduced the availability of this emergency forage by the reduction of old forests and increased landscape fragmentation and analyze the consequences of different management strategies on future habitat availability for arboreal lichens. By integrating these results into a model of forest management, I offer insights into consequences arising from different priorities that either favor timber production or the development of lichen-rich grazing grounds. In conclusion, I emphasize the importance of landscape diversity, as well as the ability to make use of this diversity, as a source of adaptability of reindeer husbandry to changes in grazing conditions by e.g. winter weather dynamics. A shared future of reindeer husbandry and forestry could be fostered by encouraging the social-ecological co-evolution of multiple use landscapes and the enhancement of the cultural and biological significance of the Swedish boreal forests.

<p>This thesis investigates the adaptation to climate change that is taking place in the WaterSupply and Waste Water (WSW) sector of the Stockholm Region. The adaptation processis analyzed in terms of building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptive decisions.Theories on organizational learning and the concept of an organization’s adaptation spaceare used to understand the factors that influence the adaptation process and the capacityof the studied WSW organizations to adapt to climate change. A case study approach hasbeen used and by focusing the research on four regional WSW organizations – thatcomprise a majority of the region’s WSW activities – it is argued that conclusionsrelevant to the region’s WSW sector as a whole can be made. Semi-structured interviewswith the complete management board – in three out of four organizations – and officialdocuments and reports, are the main sources of primary data for the analysis.The results show that adaptation to climate change is occuring in the WSW sector of theStockholm Region. The adaptation is mainly taking the form of building adaptivecapacity and there is only limited evidence of implementation of adaptive decisions. Theresearch suggests that there are few technical and organizational limitations foradaptation to take place and that the main factors influencing the adaptation space of thesector is how the climate change issue and risks are interpreted and perceptions of howthe WSW organizations should function and use their limited economical resources. Twoconclusions are drawn from these results: first, factors influencing the feasibility andattractiveness of different adaptation options need to be included and analysed in order tounderstand the actual adaptation space of an organization. Second, due to the factorsidentified as influencing the adaptation space, it is unlikely, at present, that robustinfrastructure solutions – which have been suggested in the literature as a viable way todeal with the intrinsic uncertainties related to climate change – can be implemented in theWSW sector of the Stockholm Region solely due to concerns of climate change.</p>

This thesis examines the susceptibility of human health to climate-related stresses in the rural municipality of Addington Highlands, Ontario. Human health is sensitive to climatic variations and change, and public health systems play a role in managing climate-related risks. Canada is generally deemed to have considerable capacity to adapt to vulnerabilities associated with climate change, yet there is variability among communities in their exposure and ability to manage health risks. This thesis examines the health-related vulnerability of the community of Addington Highlands. Drawing upon data gained from key informant interviews and newspaper articles, as well as other secondary data sources, the thesis documents climate-related health risks, outlines the programs and services available to deal with those risks, and assesses the capacity of the community to adapt to future climate conditions and risks. Conditions such as storms, heat stress and forest fires currently present health risks in the area, and they are expected to become more prevalent with climate change. The health risks of Lyme disease, West Nile virus and algal blooms are likely to increase in the future as the climate continues to change. Adaptation to these risks is evident in several of Addington Highlands public health and emergency management programs. The community’s adaptive capacity is strengthened by its social networks and institutional flexibility, but it is constrained by its aging population, limits to the availability and access to health care services, and challenges relating to the retention of service providers. An important strategy to assist adaptation to climate change risks to health is the promotion of public awareness, a strategy to which this research contributes. This thesis research serves to identify and better understand vulnerabilities, and help stimulate actions toward preparing Addington Highlands for possible future climate-related risks.

This dissertation presents the results of an investigation of rural households’ ability to adapt to changing environmental and climatic conditions. It presents soil degradation arising from worsening soil erosion, leaching, depletion of nutrients due to years of uninterrupted cultivation and low levels of use of fertilizers; uncontrolled deforestation leading to loss of biodiversity; and climate variability seen through longer dry seasons as well as delayed and falling levels of precipitation as key issues leading to the vulnerability of households in Kakemega District in Western Province of Kenya. An enquiry has been made into the adaptation strategies of the rural households and a composite household adaptive capacity index (HACI) developed which is then used in hypothesis testing. Despite a situation laden with serious soil degradation and fears that credit taken by rural households often end up in low-return necessity-based enterprises or in consumption expenditure, the dissertation shows that the use of credit positively contributes to the HACI as does regular and optimal use of farm inputs. Diversification into non-agricultural activities, on-farm planting of trees and migration with remittances were some of the adaptation strategies observed among households with relatively high adaptive capacity indices while a secondary school level of education alongside the possession of non-land and non-livestock assets were key factors clearly associated with high adaptive capacity indices. Regarding adaptation decision making, the household head was observed to be the single most important actor in a process which was often characterized by authoritarianism. The household head’s level of information or awareness of environmental changes and open options proved to be important for adaptation. It was revealed that membership to groups and networks as well as government and NGO-activities were the most important factors in informing the household heads. Given small land sizes and a high incidence of other negative shocks, household heads tended to adopt and implement only tried and tested adaptation actions. During the study behind this dissertation, pioneers in the implementation of new strategies were observed to be better informed household heads or beneficiaries of incentives from the promoters of such strategies. Newer efforts aimed at the promotion of adaptability would therefore gain wider acceptance and adoption if preceded by a pilot phase carefully designed to include committed opinion shapers who would provide a demonstration effect. / In dieser Dissertation wurden ländliche Haushalte bezüglich ihrer Anpassungsfähigkeit an den Umwelt- und Klimawandel untersucht. Desweiteren geht die Dissertation unter anderen der Frage über Strategien nach, die von ländlichen Haushalten angesichts der Auswirkungen von Umweltproblemen eingesetzt werden. Die Feldforschung wurde unter den Haushalten im Kakamega Distrikt in Kenia getätigt. Eine Abnahme der Bodenproduktivität ist durch Erosion, einem Auslaugen und einer ununterbrochenen Kultivierung in Kakamega entstanden. Desweiteren führt eine unkontrollierte Abholzung mit resultierendem Verlust von heimischer Flora und Fauna sowie längeren Trockenperioden mit verspätetem Einsatz von Regenfällen und einer damit verbundenen Niederschlagsminimierung zu einer schwierigen Lebenssituation für die ländlichen Haushalte, die hauptsächlich durch Landwirtschaft ihre Existenz sichern. Diese Situation (gekennzeichnet durch Abholzung, Verlust der Artenvielfalt, Verminderung der Bodenqualität und unregelmäßige und wechselhafte Niederschlag) wird in dieser Arbeit als Umweltwandel (Environmental Change oder Environmental Stress) bezeichnet. Es konnte unter anderem als eines der Ergebnisse der Arbeit festgestellt werden, dass die ländlichen Haushalte aufgrund schlechten Bodens, unkontrollierten Abholzungen, längeren Trockenzeiten und sinkenden Niederschlagsmengen sehr anfällig sind. Durch den Einsatz des zusammengesetzten Haushalt-Anpassungsfähigkeitsindex (Household Adaptive Capacity Index = HACI), der im Rahmen dieser Dissertation entwickelt wurde, konnten die Bedenken gemindert werden, dass Kredite, die an ärmeren ländlichen Haushalten vergeben werden, oft für Notgründungen und Konsumausgaben eingesetzt werden. Es hat sich herauskristallisiert, dass die optimale und regelmäßige Nutzung von Düngemitteln sowie der Einsatz von Krediten, die HACI positiv beeinflusst. Als weitere Ergebnisse konnte beobachtet werden, dass Haushalte mit höheren Anpassungsfähigkeitsindexen Anpassungstrategien wie Diversifizierung in nicht-agra Aktivitäten, Aufforstung und Migration verwenden, und, dass ein Sekundarschulabschluss und der Besitz von Wirtschaftsgütern mit hohen Haushalt-Anpassungsfähigkeitsindexen assoziiert sind. Zum Anpassungsentscheidungspozess konnte festgestellt werden, dass Haushaltoberhäupter, die wichtigste Akteure sind. Entscheidungsweisen dieser Haushaltoberhäupten lassen oftmals autoritäre Züge erkennen. So entscheiden die Haushaltoberhäupter häufig auch, in welcher Art und Weise Haushalte sich anpassen dürfen. Von daher ist das Wissen des Haushaltoberhauptes über die herrschenden Umweltbedingungen und die offenen Strategien oder Handlungspielräume von Bedeutung. Die Feldforschung zeigte, dass die Zugehörigkeit zu einzelnen Gruppen sowie die Bemühungen von der Regierung und den Nichtregierungsorganisationen wichtig für die Erhöhung des Wissens von Haushaltoberhäupten sind. Da der durchschnittliche Haushaltgrundstückbesitz sinkt und andere negative Ereignisse wie Krankheit und Tod zunehmend Angst verbreiten, setzen Haushaltsoberhäupter häufig nur dann empfohlene Strategien zur Anpassung ein, wenn sie beispielsweise einen Erfolg bei einem Nachbar verzeichnen können. Oftmals werden Anpassungsstrategien auch bei finanziellen Anreizen, zum Beispiel von Förderern, umgesetzt. Es würden mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit mehr Anpassungstrategien von ländlichen Haushalten umgesetzt werden, wenn diese Strategien Pilotprojekte beinhalten würden, die Haushalten das Zusammenspiel von Anpassung und Ernteertrag präsentieren.

The southwest Yukon social-ecological system (SES) is marked by complex changes, including a climate induced directionally changing landscape, an increasing shift away from traditional subsistence lifestyles, and changing species composition. The addition of “new” ungulate species through human and non-human introductions has spawned many management questions. This study developed qualitative scenarios through a participatory process, utilizing scientific and traditional knowledge from within the social-ecological system’s local context. The study worked with local management groups to address two main objectives: 1.) Collaboratively envision alternate future scenarios with management groups from which to collaboratively develop management goals for wood bison, elk, and mule deer to cope with the changing social and ecological landscape of the southwest Yukon and 2.) Discover resource managers’ and local stakeholders’ perceptions of scenario planning as a method identify wildlife management goals. A series of three workshops with the Alsek Renewable Resource Council, the Yukon Wood Bison Technical Team, and the Yukon Elk Management Planning Team addressed the first objective, while two surveys addressed the second objective. Major findings included southwest Yukon-specific wildlife management goals and considerations for using scenario planning in a wildlife management context. The scenarios themselves warn of plausible events that might unfold, such as novel disease and pest outbreaks. Several participants mentioned that the value attributed to different species will change based on scenario context. This prompts warnings for wildlife managers not to “shut the door” on a species today that may be highly valuable for solving food security challenges of the future. Findings suggest that one of scenario planning’s most significant contribution is a forum for people to share perspectives and develop trust and understanding of one another. All participants valued the holistic and long-term thinking aspects of scenario planning, seeing it as a complementary tool to enhance existing planning processes. Major resource management plans and/or resource development projects in the future should consider using a scenarios approach to better articulated goals in terms of whole system impacts.

Vulnerability to weather-related hazards is a considerable humanitarian, economic and environmental concern for cities, especially in developing countries. However, there is a limited understanding of urban vulnerability and its specific implications. This study assesses the spatio-temporal vulnerability caused by climatic and societal change in Chile’s key coastal urban areas. In this urban vulnerability assessment, both regional and local approaches were undertaken, the former to give a broad sense of the possible futures that these cities face and the latter to explore, using all available and reliable data, how climatic and societal change affected one of these metropolitan areas. For the time points 2025, 2055 and 2085, the regional assessment shows that vulnerability is likely to vary across different scenarios and time frames. A significant future increase in exposure to hazards is mainly moderated, to a greater or lesser extent, by an increase in the adaptive capacity of the cities in question. Cities in central and southern Chile are more vulnerable. The local assessment provides a detailed evaluation of recent past vulnerabilities in the Concepción Metropolitan Area (CMA). In the local assessment, an urban indicator framework was first designed and then employed to explore changes in exposure and sensitivity of areas within CMA and the general ability of the urban system to adapt to different hazards. Five weather-related hazards were explored: coastal flooding, fluvial flooding, water scarcity, heat stress and wildfire, using a flexible methodology based on spatial fuzzy modelling with geographic information systems. Hazard-specific vulnerability and overall vulnerability indices were created. The local assessment results indicate a high vulnerability in the CMA that decreased slightly between 1992 and 2002. The combined socio-economic factors of sensitivity and adaptive capacity influenced the index more than the biophysical factors of exposure. Changes in age structure and economic growth had a greater influence on vulnerability that other variables. Overall vulnerability varied across municipalities and hazards, with wildfires and water scarcity influencing overall vulnerability the most. Fuzzy modelling enabled realism and flexibility in the standardization and aggregation of indicators with different attributes. It permitted the exploration of the individual and aggregate influence of the indicators that comprise the indices. ArcGIS software favoured transparency and simplicity in the aggregation of multiple entry criteria, facilitating spatial representation through maps, which can help identify indicators, components and hazards or combinations thereof that influence municipal vulnerability. The results can be used to improve and promote dialogue among policy-makers and stakeholders regarding the prioritization of resources for urban development in ways that can reduce vulnerability to climate change.