Os estudos dos sistemas agrícolas em geral, incluindo os sistemas de produção frutícola, com freqüência abordam a sua configuração e dinâmica numa ótica ex-post à sua origem e formação. Neste trabalho os sistemas agrícolas foram analisados numa ótica ex-ante. As variáveis determinantes da emergência dos sistemas de produção frutícola foram identificadas, com vistas à construção de um modelo de emergência destes sistemas. Inicialmente, por meio de entrevistas com experts, foram identificadas as variáveis percebidas como determinantes da emergência de um sistema de produção frutícola consolidado, localizado no Vale do Rio São Francisco, na Região Nordeste do Brasil. A seguir, estas variáveis foram avaliadas, quanto à sua importância, na emergência de oito sistemas de produção frutícola menos desenvolvidos, localizados no estado do Rio Grande do Sul, sendo que destes, cinco sistemas são focalizados na citricultura e três na persicultura. Assim foi possível determinar um conjunto de variáveis que representam as condições básicas para a emergência de sistemas de produção frutícola. As condições edafoclimáticas, a demanda do mercado, o apoio tecnológico, a existência de mão-de-obra especializada, a infra-estrutura produtiva na região, as condições das estradas e a existência de uma liderança foram as variáveis que receberam os maiores escores de importância para a emergência. As variáveis relativas à logística, ao apoio governamental, ao envolvimento de múltiplos produtores, instituições e empresas complementares do sistema de produção frutícola, complementam os condicionantes da plena expressão das propriedades características dos sistemas emergentes. A identificação dessas variáveis pode ajudar nas decisões sobre iniciativas de estímulo de emergência de sistemas de produção frutícola desejados, embora a configuração do sistema resultante destas iniciativas não possa ser antevista. O próximo passo seria testar essas variáveis em outros tipos de sistemas agrícolas, para modelagem de uma equação da emergência dos sistemas agrícolas em geral. / General studies on agricultural systems, including fruit production systems, often approach their configuration and dynamics under an ex-post viewpoint to their origin and formation. In this work the agricultural systems were analyzed in their ex-ante aspects. The variables, which determine the emergence of fruit production systems were identified, and considered for the construction of a model of emergence of these systems. At first, through interviews with experts, it was possible to identify the variables perceived as determinant for the emergence of a consolidated fruit production system, located in the Sao Francisco River Valley, Brazilian northeastern region. Later, such variables were evaluated in terms of importance for the emergence of eight less developed fruit production systems located in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, of which five were focused on citrus culture, and three were focused on peach culture. A set of variables were determined that represent the basic conditions for emergence of fruit production systems, which might represent the bases for emergence and development of other fruit production systems. Edaphic-climatic conditions, market demand, technological support, availability of skilled labor force, productive infra-structure in the region, road conditions, and the existence of leadership were the variables that received the highest scores of importance for the emergence. The variables involving infrastructure and logistics, government support, market and participation of multiple producers, institutions and complementary companies of the fruit system complete the other conditioning aspects of the full expression of the characteristic properties of emerging systems. The identification of these variables could help in processes of decision making, regarding initiatives to stimulate emergence of the fruits production systems, although the resulting configuration of the systems cannot be forecasted for sure. The next step in this kind of study would be to test these variables in other agricultural systems types, for modeling of an equation of the agricultural systems emergence in general.

South Africa and the rest of developing countries are faced with poverty and poor rural development. Rural participation in agricultural activities is one of the components that can be used to address the poverty challenge facing the people residing in rural areas. The broad objective of this research is to determine factors affecting participation rate in farming in the rural areas of Amathole District Municipality of Eastern Cape. In this study stratified random sampling method was applied in order to choose a sample out of 30 households that were interviewed 13 people belonged to Participants and 17 people belonged to non-Participants. The results from this study show that women participate a lot in farming activities. The multiple regression model was used to test the participation rates of the people in Amathole region specifically Phumlani area. A number of variables were considered in this study to assess the impact of different variables on participation in farming activities. The results showed that about 57% of the respondents are not participating in farming while 43% of the respondents participate. The farming participants that were interviewed all claim that there is a lack in farming support in the area. When there is no support of any kind, rural people would not be motivated to start development projects on their own. Consequently, this lack of farming support in the Phumlani area may have an influence on the number of farming participants. Therefore, the lack of support in the area may serve as a motivation for non-participants not to be influenced to farm. Rural farming needs to be promoted amongst the youth so as to protect and sustain agricultural growth in rural areas. The study has discovered that the youth of Phumlani is not actively involved in farming activities. Government can provide community members with farming resources so as to promote farming in the area. It would be wiser for the government to provide physical farming resources and implements rather than cash grants.

Paysages emblématiques des campagnes de l’Ouest, les bocages ont connu une série de transformations rapides et importantes ces quarante dernières années : érosion du linéaire de haies, changements des usages du sol, rationalisation et agrandissement du parcellaire, banalisation et massification des bâtiments agricoles, enfrichement des secteurs les plus difficiles à exploiter. L’ampleur des ajustements observés souligne le décalage entre ces formes paysagères héritées d’une longue histoire agraire, et l’évolution des systèmes agricoles qui contribuent à les produire.Si la transformation des paysages de bocage est généralement attribuée au tournant « productiviste » du modèle agricole français, les processus socio-techniques à l’origine de ces évolutions sont plus rarement explicités. L’objet de ce travail est d’évaluer plus spécifiquement la contribution de l’agrandissement des exploitations agricoles à la dynamique d’évolution des paysages bocagers de l’Ouest de la France.Ce travail de géographie s’appuie dans un premier temps sur une analyse statistique à l’échelle du grand Ouest de la France, visant à étudier l’effet des transformations foncières sur les structures spatiales agricoles (assolements, parcellaire, linéaires boisés…). Dans un second temps, les dynamiques paysagères et foncières de quatre espaces d’étude (Bessin, Bocage Virois, Sud Manche, Pays d’Auge), situés en domaine laitier et bocager mais présentant des configurations agricoles variées, ont été étudiées entre 2003 et 2016. Ce travail s’appuie notamment sur un dispositif méthodologique original, articulant au sein d’un système d’information géographique à échelle parcellaire (1) la construction d’un suivi à échelle spatio-temporelle fine des dynamiques paysagères (évolution du maillage bocager, de la trame parcellaire et de l’occupation du sol) et (2) la reconstitution de l’évolution de la mosaïque des parcellaires d’exploitations par appariement de plusieurs millésimes du registre parcellaire graphique. L’exploitation de cette base de données spatio-temporelle a permis de mieux comprendre le rôle de la transformation foncière des exploitations agricoles dans la dynamique des paysages bocagers. Enfin, une enquête de terrain a été réalisée auprès de 150 agriculteurs équitablement répartis dans les quatre espaces d’étude, afin d’appréhender les conséquences sociales, techniques et productives de l’agrandissement à l’échelle des exploitations agricoles, qui diffèrent singulièrement selon le type de trajectoire foncière suivie. / Symbolic landscapes of the countryside of the West of France, the bocage landscapes have undergone a series of transformations these last forty years : decrease in hedgerow density, land uses changes, plots extension, normalization and enlargement of farm buildings, spatial extension of wilderness… The intensity of landscape transformations highlights the contradiction between these landscape forms produced by a long agrarian history and the contemporary evolutions of farming systems. The transformation of hedgerow landscapes is generally attributed to the "productivist" turn of the French agricultural model. However, the socio-technical processes behind these changes are more rarely explained.The first purpose of this geography work is to study the effects of changing agricultural systems on agricultural spatial structures, based on a statistical analysis at the scale of the West of France. In a second step, the landscape and land dynamics of four study areas (Bessin, Bocage Virois, Sud Manche, Pays d'Auge), located in the dairy and bocage domain, have been studied between 2003 and 2016. This work is based on an original methodological device, set up in a geographical information system. This structuration of geographic information makes possible to (1) monitor the landscape dynamics (evolution of the hedgerow density, land cover and plot morphology changes) at a fine spatial and temporal scale and (2) to reconstruct the evolution of the mosaic of farm plots, by matching land-parcell identification systems across the time (2007, 2011, 2013). From this spatio-temporal database, we characterized the coevolution of landscape structures and farm territories across the time, in order to better understand the landscape consequences of farm enlargment.Finally, a field survey was carried out among 150 farmers equitably distributed in the four study areas, in order to apprehend the social, technical and productive consequences of the farms enlargment, which differ singularly according to the type of land trajectory followed.

MENVSC / Department of Ecology and Resource Management

<p>This research focused on developing adaptable models and protocols for early warning systems for forecasting plant diseases and datasets. It compared the performance of deep learning models in predicting soybean rust disease outbreaks using three years of public epidemiological data and gridded weather data. The models selected were a dense network and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. The objectives included evaluating the effectiveness of small citizen science datasets and gridded meteorological weather in sequential forecasting, assessing the ideal window size and important inputs, and exploring the generalizability of the model protocol and models to other diseases. The model protocol was developed using a soybean rust dataset. Both the dense and the LSTM networks produced accuracies of over 90% during optimization. When tested for forecasting, both networks could forecast with an accuracy of 85% or higher over various window sizes. Experiments on window size indicated a minimum input of 8 -11 days. Generalizability was demonstrated by applying the same protocol to a southern corn rust dataset, resulting in 87.8% accuracy. In addition, transfer learning and pre-trained models were tested. Direct transfer learning between disease was not successful, while pre training models resulted both positive and negative results. Preliminary results are reported for building generalizable disease models using epidemiological and weather data that researchers could apply to generate forecasts for new diseases and locations.</p>

<p>Information about the conditions of specific fields and assets is critical for farm managers to make operational decisions. Location, rainfall, windspeed, soil moisture, and temperature are examples of metrics that influence the ability to perform certain tasks. Monitoring these events in real time and being able to store historical data can be done using Internet of Things (IoT) devices such as sensors. The abilities of this technology have previously been communicated, yet few farmers have adopted these connected devices into their work. A lack of reliable internet connection, the high annual cost of current on-market systems, and a lack of technical awareness have all contributed to this disconnect. One technology that can better meet the demand of farmers is LoRaWAN because of its long range, low power, and low cost. To assist farmers in implementing this technology on their farms the goal was to build a LoRaWAN network with several sensors to measure metrics such as weather data, distribute these systems locally, and provide context to the operation of IoT networks. By leveraging readily available commercial hardware and opens source software two examples of standalone networks were created with sensor data stored locally and without a dependence on internet connectivity. The first use case was a kit consisting of a gateway and small PC mounted to a tripod with 6 individual sensors and cost close to $2200 in total. An additional design was prepared for a micro-computer-based version using a Raspberry Pi, which made improvements to the original design. These adjustments included a lower cost and complication of hardware, software with more open-source community support, and cataloged steps to increase approachability. Given outside factors, the PC architecture was chosen for mass distribution. Over one year, several identical units were produced and given to farms, extension educators, and vocational agricultural programs. From this series of deployments, all units survived the growing season without damage from the elements, general considerations about the chosen type of sensors and their potential drawbacks were made, the practical observed average range for packet acceptance was 3 miles, and battery life among sensors remained usable after one year. The Pi-based architecture was implemented in an individual use case with instructions to assist participation from any experience level. Ultimately, this work has introduced individuals to the possibilities of creating and managing their own network and what can be learned from a reasonably simple, self-managed data pipeline.</p>

Thesis ( M. Tech. (Agriculture )) - Central University of Technology, Free State, 2014

Assignment (MSc) -- University of Stellenbosch, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In an integrated crop-livestock production farm, the profitability and sustainability of farm production is dependent on the crop rotation strategy applied. Crop rotations have historically been applied to maintain long-term profitability and sustainabiliry of farming production by exploiting the jointly beneficial interrelationships existing among different crop types and the animal production activity. Monocrop (specifically wheat) growers in the Swartland area of the Western Cape are struggling to maintain long-term profitability and sustainability of the crop production, challenging them to rethink about the introduction crop rotation in the production planning. By making proper assumptions, this paper develops a mixed integer linear programming model to suggest a decision planning for the farm planning problem faced by an integratedcrop- livestock production farmer. The mathematical model developed includes crop production, dairy production and wool sheep production activities, which permitted the consideration of five crop types within a crop rotation system. By assuming that a farmer uses a cycle of at most three years, the crop rotation model was incorporated in the composite mixed integer linear farm planning model. In order to demonstrate the application of the mathematical farm planning model formulated, a case study is presented. Relevant data from the Koeberg area of the Swartland region of the Western Cape was applied. For each planning period, the model assumed that the farm has the option of selecting from any of 15 cropping strategies. A land which is not allocated to any of the 15 crop rotation strategies due to risky production situation is left as grass land for roughage purposes of the animal production. Results of the mathematical model indicated that farm profit is dependent on the cropping strategy selected. Additionally, animal production level was also dependent on the crop strategy appl ied. Furthermore, study results suggest that the profit generated from the integrated crop-livestock farm production by adopting crop rotation was superior to profit generated 1'1'0111 the farm activities which are based on monocrop wheat strategy. Empirical results also indicated that the complex interrelationship involved in a mixed crop-livestock farm operation play a major role in determining optimal farm plans. This complex interrelationships favour the introduction of crop rotation in the crop production activities of the farm under investigation. Crop production risk is the major risk component of risk the farmer faces in the farm production. In this study, risk is incorporated in the mixed integer programrnmg farm planning model as a deviation from the expected values of an activity of returns. Model solution with risk indicated that crop rotation strategy and animal production level is sensitive to risk levels considered. The Results also showed that the incorporation of risk in the model greatly affects the level of acreage allocation, crop rotation and animal production level of the farm. Finally, to improve the profitability and sustainability of the farm activity, the study results suggest that the introduction of crop rotation which consist cereals, oil crops and leguminous forages is of paramount importance. Furthermore, the inclusion of forage crops such as medics in the integrated crop livestock production is beneficial for sustained profitability from year to year. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Wisselbou is baie belangrik om volhoubare winsgewindheid te verseker in 'n geintegreerde lewendehawe I gewasverbouing boerdery in die Swartland gebied van Wes-Kaap. "n Monokultuur van veral koring produksie het ernstige problerne vir produsente veroorsaak. In hierdie studie word 'n gemengde heeltallige liniere prograrnmerings-model gebruik om te help met besluitneming in sulke boerderye.Die wiskundige model beskou die produksie van kontant- en voer-gewasse (5 verskillende soorte) asook suiwel- en wol/vleis-produksie (beeste en skape) .Daar word aanvaar dat die boer "n siklus van hoogstens 3 jaar in die wisselbou rotasie model gebruik .. 'n Gevallestudie word gedoen met behulp van toepaslike data van 'n plaas in die Koeberg gebied. Die model aanvaar dat die produsent 'n keuse het uit 16 wisselbou strategic .Resultate toon dat winsgewindheid afhanklik is van die strategie gekies en dat wisselbou beter resultate lewer as in die geval van "n monokultuur.Dit wys ook dat die wisselwerking tussen diereproduksie en gewasproduksie baie belangrik is in die keuse van 'n optimale strategie. Die risiko in gewasverbouing is die belangrikste risiko factor vir die produsent.In hierdie studie word risiko ook ingesluit in die gemengde heeltallige model, naamlik as 'n afwyking van die verwagte opbrengs-waardes .Die model toon duidelik dat gewasproduksie en lewendehawe-produksie baie sensitief is ten opsigte van die gekose risiko vlak. Die studie toon ook dat 'n wisselbou program wat die produksie van graan (veral koring) .oliesade asook voere insluit belangrik is vir volhoubare winsgewindheid Die insluiting van klawers (bv "medics") is veral belangrik hier.

This dissertation is based upon a research project designed to identify and evaluate alternative agricultural systems which are applicable to the arid environment of Saudi Arabia within a multiobjective context. The four systems are: traditional; conventional; aridity-oriented; and, controlled environment. These systems differ in their utilization of basic resources, the the amount and type of food they produce, the profits they generate and their compatibility with Saudi Arabian social traditions. Thus, the environmental and sociological consequences of their implementation were considered along with production and economic aspects. The procedure for evaluating the alternative agricultural systems is a computer program called ESAP (Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis Program) which uses multi-attribute theory as an aid to decision making. Computations to determine the extent of that achievement are essentially a weighting of the variables identified as subdivisions of the goals. Decision makers are also required to give the relative values to the variables, and to select a particular utility function which describes the relationship between value and utility. The values assigned to each variable are usually presented as a range to express the users' uncertainty. Six consultants (five university professors plus the author) with varying professional backgrounds and knowledge of Saudi Arabian conditions were used as individual and collective decision makers to evaluate the four agricultural systems and their combinations. The procedure resulted in grouping these ten different alternatives (four systems plus combinations of any two) into three independent classes: I, Il and III. The grouping was based upon obtaining a clear distinction in overall score between the classes. The grouping into classes resulted in the aridity-oriented agricultural system being the only alternative in Class I. The consultants felt that this system offered the most favorable tradeoff between the economic benefits and the social and environmental factors. In general, the study indicated that the protection of natural resources and the maintenance of cultural factors should be given significant influence along with the economic factors in evaluating a particular plan of action. In utilizing such a procedure, the need for additional data and research became very evident, if there is to be better allocation of the Kingdom's agricultural resources.

Perennial ryegrass is an intensive, temperate pasture grass that responds well to applied fertiliser. The purpose of this project was to study the effects of fertiliser on the productivity and quality of perennial ryegrass in KwaZulu-Natal and how this impacts on animal intake. It was hypothesised that over-application of fertiliser to a perennial ryegrass pasture would negatively affect the quality of the herbage for grazing by dairy cattle and that intake would be affected. Thus the project aimed to assess the effects of applied fertiliser on yield, quality and intake of an established perennial ryegrass pasture. The trial consisted of a set of six separate experiments. Each experiment focused on the interaction between two of the major nutrient elements nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K) and sulphur (S). The experiments (NxP, NxK, NxS, PxK, PxS and KxS) were managed separately to avoid possible transfer of nutrients during grazing, which would result in the contamination of treatments. Each factor had three levels (low, medium and high), giving a total of nine treatments per experiment. Each of the experiments was replicated three times in a randomised block design. Increased fertiliser N application rates increased perennial ryegrass yield with a pattern of diminishing return, where split applications above 40 kg N ha-1 produced smaller increases in yield when compared with the response at lower applications of N. Applied P, K and S did not affect yield, suggesting that even the lowest application levels were sufficient to not limit production. Nitrogen application affected apparent intake, but it is suggested that this is due to the yield effect rather than a direct effect of N on apparent intake. The application of P, K and S did not affect apparent intake. Results from this study showed that the quality of perennial ryegrass herbage, especially in terms of feed value to dairy cows, can be significantly affected by applied fertiliser. The extent of the response was affected by sampling date (i.e. time of year) and this must be taken into account when planning a fertiliser management strategy. This is particularly so with respect to N fertiliser recommendations. Crude protein (CP) content of herbage increased with increasing levels of applied N and the extent of the response was influenced by season. P, K and S did not affect CP concentration in herbage, except in the PxK experiment where increased levels of K lowered herbage CP. Applied N considerably increased the concentration of non-protein nitrogen (NPN) in perennial ryegrass herbage. P and S did not affect NPN levels, whereas applied K decreased NPN content in the iv NxK and PxK experiments. Non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) content of herbage was decreased by applied N but was unaffected by applications of P, K and S. Neither neutral detergent fibre (NDF) nor acid detergent fibre (ADF) was affected by applied fertiliser. In this study herbage P declined and herbage Ca increased with increasing levels of applied N. The addition of fertiliser K resulted in lower herbage Ca values. There was no herbage S response to applied fertiliser in this study. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis identified the primary determinant of apparent intake in experiments containing N as a factor as the amount of material available to be grazed and that NSC, NPN and ADF are also determinants of apparent intake. Cows do not regulate diet choice within the short-term time frame of a meal. Thus intake is determined by short-term needs rather than by meeting long-term nutrient requirements. Fibre creates physical fill within the rumen, thus restricting intake. High NPN content is associated with high nitrate values. The reduction in intake of herbage with high nitrate content may be due to reduced palatability or to a negative feedback system limiting the intake of nitrate and ammonium. Increased NSC content is associated with increased intake, possibly through the effect of sugar on herbage palatability.