As airspace congestion becomes increasingly more common, one of the primary places airspace congestion is felt today, and will only continue to increase, is in areas where more than one major airport interact. We will call these groups of interdependent airports a metroplex; a term originally coined to describe large metropolitan areas where more than one city of equal (or near equal) size or importance. These metroplex areas are of particular importance in understanding future capacity demands because many of these areas are currently experiencing problems with meeting the current demand, and demand is only projected to increase as air travel becomes more popular. Many of these capacity issues have been identified in the FAA's Future Airport Capacity Task (FACT). From the second FACT report, it is stated that "the FACT 1 analysis revealed that many of our hub airports and their associated metropolitan areas could be expected to experience capacity constraints (i.e. unacceptable levels of delay) by 2013 and 2020, even if the planned improvements envisioned at that time were completed." This analysis shows that the current methods of expanding airports will not scale with the growing demand. To address this growing demand, a three part solution is proposed. The first step is to properly identify the metroplex areas to be evaluated. While the FACT reports serve to identify areas where capacity growth does not meet demand, these areas are not grouped into metroplexes. To do this grouping, an interaction metric was developed based on airport distance and traffic volume. This interaction metric serves as a proxy for how the existence of a second airport impacts the operation of the first. This pairwise metric was then computed for all commercial airports in the US and were grouped into metroplexes using a clustering algorithm. The second obstacle was to develop a tool to evaluate each metroplex as new algorithms were tested. A discrete event based simulation was developed to model each link in the airspace structure for each aircraft that enters the TRACON. This program tracks the delay each aircraft is required to accumulate in holding patterns or traffic trombones. A third and final method discussed here was an optimization program that can be used to schedule aircraft that are entering the TRACON to perform small modifications in their speed while en route to reduce the overall delay (both en route and in the TRACON). While formal optimization methods for scheduling aircraft arrivals have been presented before, the computational complexity has greatly prevented such algorithms from being used to schedule many aircraft in a dense schedule. This is because mixed integer programming (MIP) is a NP-hard problem. Practically, this means that the solution time can grow exponentially as the problem size (number of aircraft) increases. To address this issue, a Benders' decomposition scheme was introduced that allows solutions to be computed in near real-time on commodity hardware. These solutions can be evaluated and compared against the currently used TMA algorithm to show surprising gains in high density traffic.

This thesis investigates two main aspects of air transportation system, demand and capacity. The first study aims to estimate the potential market for Zip Vehicles, an advanced commuter type of aircraft equipped with automation and electric propulsion technologies. A Multinomial Logit Model was developed to estimate the mode choice behavior of commuters between Zip vehicle, auto and transit in seven metropolitan areas in the United States. The results showed that the Out-of-Vehicle travel time plays an important role in the decision process of commuters. Zip Vehicle is predicted to achieve residual demand with the current technologies and could become more competitive if it was equipped with Vertical Take-Off Technology. The second study developed a hybrid airport runway capacity model that blends both deterministic and simulation techniques. The model includes a graphic user interface that allows high degree of freedom to modify input parameters, such as airport information, weather conditions, minimum separation distances and aircraft grouping system. The model is widely validated and it appears to be a consistent solution for estimating airport capacity at different levels and with various degree of extensibility. / Master of Science

Better utilization of the airport system capacities can significantly decrease delays, as well as number of cancelled flights. An efficient Air Traffic Control system equipped with advanced technology installations in the terminal area can help reduce flight delays and cancellations. The same technology could also help reduce accidents in the terminal area, thereby increasing the safety of the system. Due to the expense of fielding advanced technology in the terminal area, it is important to conduct realistic cost-benefit analysis to predict the life-cycle cost of the system. A computer simulation and optimization model to estimate the costs and benefits of fielding advanced technologies at airport terminal areas is introduced in this paper. The model developed is called the Cost-Benefit Analysis Terminal Investment Model (COTIM). This model considers costs and benefits to both service providers (Federal Aviation Administration and airport authorities) and users (Airlines). The model combines a simulation-optimization based approach to predict benefits and costs accrued in one day or throughout the life-cycle of the facility. We present an example to demonstrate the functionality of the model using Chicago O'Hare International Airport (ORD) equipped with the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). The Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) is a relatively new technology that forecasts convective weather movements thus allowing Air Traffic Control (ATC) personnel to re-direct flights inside the terminal area efficiently. COTIM estimates flight delays and cancellations at an airport, when the airport is equipped with advanced technologies such as ITWS. The model performs cost-benefit analysis by comparing a baseline scenario without terminal area technologies against a scenario with technology. The difference between the two scenarios help decision makers justify whether technology investments are warranted of not. / Master of Science

Effective and efficient air transportation systems are crucial to a nation's economy and connectedness. These systems involve capital-intensive facilities and equipment and move millions of people and tonnes of freight every day. As air traffic has continued to increase, the systems necessary to ensure safe and efficient operation will continue to grow more and more complex. Hence, it is imperative that air transport analysts are equipped with the best tools to properly predict and respond to expected air transportation operations. This dissertation aims to improve on those tools currently available to air transportation analysts, while offering new ones. Specifically, this thesis will offer the following: 1) A model for predicting arrival runway occupancy times (AROT); 2) a model for predicting departure runway occupancy times (DROT); and 3) a flight planning model. This thesis will also offer an exploration of the uses of unmanned aerial vehicles for providing wireless communications services. For the predictive models of AROT and DROT, we fit hierarchical Bayesian regression models to the data, grouped by aircraft type using airport physical and aircraft operational parameters as the regressors. Recognizing that many existing air transportation models require distributions of AROT and DROT, Bayesian methods are preferred since their output are distributions that can be directly inputted into air transportation modeling programs. Additionally, we exhibit how analysts will be able to decouple AROT and DROT predictions from the traditional 4 or 5 groupings of aircraft currently in use. Lastly, for the flight planning model, we present a 2-D model using presently available wind data that provides wind-optimal flight routings. We improve over current models by allowing free-flight unconnected to pre-existing airways and by offering finer resolutions over the current 2.5 degree norm. / Ph. D.

Increased efficiency at airports is necessary to reduce delays and fuel consumption. Many of the busiest airports in the nation have at least one pair of closely spaced parallel runways (CSPRs), defined by a separation of less than 2500 ft, with one runway dedicated to arrivals and the other to departures. CSPRs experience a large decrease in capacity under instrument conditions because they can no longer operate independently. In order to mitigate this decrease in capacity and to increase efficiency, proposed herein is a departure regulator for runways so configured, along with a plan of study to investigate the effects of this regulator. The proposed departure regulator makes use of data from precision tracking systems such as ADS-B to issue automated or semi-automated departure clearances. Assuming sequential departure separations are sufficient for clearance, the regulator will automatically issue, or advise the controller to issue, the departure clearance as soon as the arrival on the adjacent runway has descended below its decision height. By issuing the departure clearance earlier, the departure regulator reduces the gap between a pair of arrivals that is required to clear a departure. By decreasing the gap, the regulator increases the number of opportunities where a departure clearance can be issued, given a particular arrival stream. A simulation models the effects of the regulator and quantifies the resulting increases in capacity. The simulation results indicate that all forms of the regulator would provide significant gains of between 14% and 23% in capacity over the current operating paradigm. The results also indicate that the capacity gains are greatest at high arrival rates. Therefore, implementation of the departure regulator could significantly decrease the congestion at many major airports during inclement weather.

Ziel dieser Studie, die auf Anregung des BUND entstand, ist es, zu fünf Fragen Stellung zu nehmen, die für die Gestaltung einer nachhaltigen und effizienten Luftverkehrsentwicklung in Deutschland wichtig sind. 1. Welche Kapazität haben die Bahnensysteme der drei großen Flughäfen Berlin (BER), München und Düsseldorf? Müssen diese Flughäfen um weitere Bahnen vergrößert werden oder reicht ihre Kapazität aus? 2. Welche flughafenrelevanten Trends bestimmen den Luftverkehr in Deutschland? Muss man den aktuellen Forderungen der Luftverkehrswirtschaft folgen oder gibt es auch Anzeichen für alternative Entwicklungen, die nachhaltiger sind und zu effizienteren Lösungen führen? 3. Wie gut und verlässlich sind Prognosen der Luftverkehrswirtschaft? Muss man diese Prognosen hinnehmen oder gibt es Anhaltspunkte dafür, dass sie systematisch unzuverlässig sind? 4. Wie sind die wirtschaftlichen Perspektiven der Flughäfen? Warum erzielen so viele Flughäfen Verluste? Was kann getan werden, um die Verluste zu verringern? 5. Welche Erfahrungen gibt es mit Flughafenkooperationen? Müssen Flughäfen immer alleinstehende Unternehmen darstellen oder gibt es Beispiele für gelungene kooperative Lösungen? Die Studie beleuchtet historische Erfahrungen, stellt aktuelle Entwicklungen vor und zieht Schlussfolgerungen für eine zukunftsfähige Luftverkehrspolitik in Deutschland. Drei wesentliche Aspekte dabei sind eine marktgerechte Internalisierung externer Effekte des Luftverkehrs, eine verstärkte Kooperation von Flughäfen in Deutschland und eine weitere Marktöffnung des deutschen Marktes für ausländische Wettbewerber. Großer Dank wird den Mitgliedern der Forschungsgruppe Luftverkehr geschuldet, die wertvolle Informationen beigetragen haben, ohne die diese Studie nicht hätte entstehen können. / The aim of the study is to discuss five aspects of the German aviation system which are debated intensely in Germany. The first aspect is the problem of the capacity of airports. There are several airports with two runways. The question arose what is the capacity of these airports? Some wanted to add third ones to cope with future growth while others argued the capacity would be sufficient for the foreseeable future. This leads to the second aspect which covers the trends that dominate the further development of the German aviation markets. The latter will be shaped by the competition between various airlines and various airports. Especially important will be the new competition between old airports in Europe and new ones in Istanbul, Dubai or Abu Dhabi. Equally important is the question, how good forecasts of future growth of airports are (third aspect). Studies delivered by airports themselves show a systematic overestimation of their own growth. This leads to the fourth aspect, i.e. to the question of the economic situation of small and large airports in Germany. We have to ask, why there are so many small airports with losses. Last but not least the following topic has to be discussed: could more cooperation between large and small airports solve the difficult economic situation of the small ones without hindering the large ones? International examples are being analysed. The study concludes with a proposal for the further development of the German aviation system.

This study adopt input orientation data envelopment Analysis approaches to evaluate the operational efficiency for major international airports in terms of the top 20 ranking by total passengers handling in Asia region in 2008. Unlike the most the other airport literature researches only using the one-stage DEA to measure the efficiency, in this study, two-stage, the extension of DEA, adding the concept of the intermediates product, separate the airport operation into airport capital side and airport capability side, is applied to evaluate the two-side efficiency of each airport under the assumption of constant returns to scale, variable returns to scale, scale efficiency and super efficiency model by employing four inputs, four intermediate products and two outputs. The result of this study shows that the China Shenzhen Baoan airport is the best airport in overall technical efficiency in different stages. It indicates that the operation of small size airports (category by the passengers handling) are run more efficiency than the large one. In addition, by two-stage DEA analysis, the airport capital usage is better than in capacity utilization. It found that the China Beijing Capital airport is good in airport infrastructure usage but the capacity utilization is not enough. Finally, the number of increasing return scale airports are more than the decreasing return scale airports among Asia region (e.g. Taiwan Taoyuan airport), therefore, the expansions of facility and capacity in those increasing return scale airports are worthy to invest to promote the operational efficiency and its competitiveness.

Au cours des dernieres decennies, la demande de trafic au niveau des aeroports a augmente regulierement a tel point que le trafic au sol est devenu critique pour la securite et l'efficacite des operations aeroportuaires. Cette these propose une approche a deux niveaux pour l'analyse et l'optimisation du trafic avion au sol sur les aeroports. Elle est divisee en trois parties: - La premiere partie introduit la problematique generale et son environnement - La deuxieme partie traite la gestion a moyen terme du trafic au sol des avions. Une approche globale pour estimer la capacite theorique et la capacite pratique du trafic avion est proposee. Celle-ci met en Suvre une approche d'optimisation du flux dans un reseau qui conduit a la formulation de differents problemes de programmation mathematique - La troisieme partie traite du niveau tactique et une approche adaptative est developpee pour definir les routes et les horaires associes aux mouvement d'arrivee ou de depart des avions. Une approche de resolution operationnelle est alors proposee.

Ziel dieser Studie, die auf Anregung des BUND entstand, ist es, zu fünf Fragen Stellung zu nehmen, die für die Gestaltung einer nachhaltigen und effizienten Luftverkehrsentwicklung in Deutschland wichtig sind. 1. Welche Kapazität haben die Bahnensysteme der drei großen Flughäfen Berlin (BER), München und Düsseldorf? Müssen diese Flughäfen um weitere Bahnen vergrößert werden oder reicht ihre Kapazität aus? 2. Welche flughafenrelevanten Trends bestimmen den Luftverkehr in Deutschland? Muss man den aktuellen Forderungen der Luftverkehrswirtschaft folgen oder gibt es auch Anzeichen für alternative Entwicklungen, die nachhaltiger sind und zu effizienteren Lösungen führen? 3. Wie gut und verlässlich sind Prognosen der Luftverkehrswirtschaft? Muss man diese Prognosen hinnehmen oder gibt es Anhaltspunkte dafür, dass sie systematisch unzuverlässig sind? 4. Wie sind die wirtschaftlichen Perspektiven der Flughäfen? Warum erzielen so viele Flughäfen Verluste? Was kann getan werden, um die Verluste zu verringern? 5. Welche Erfahrungen gibt es mit Flughafenkooperationen? Müssen Flughäfen immer alleinstehende Unternehmen darstellen oder gibt es Beispiele für gelungene kooperative Lösungen? Die Studie beleuchtet historische Erfahrungen, stellt aktuelle Entwicklungen vor und zieht Schlussfolgerungen für eine zukunftsfähige Luftverkehrspolitik in Deutschland. Drei wesentliche Aspekte dabei sind eine marktgerechte Internalisierung externer Effekte des Luftverkehrs, eine verstärkte Kooperation von Flughäfen in Deutschland und eine weitere Marktöffnung des deutschen Marktes für ausländische Wettbewerber. Großer Dank wird den Mitgliedern der Forschungsgruppe Luftverkehr geschuldet, die wertvolle Informationen beigetragen haben, ohne die diese Studie nicht hätte entstehen können. / The aim of the study is to discuss five aspects of the German aviation system which are debated intensely in Germany. The first aspect is the problem of the capacity of airports. There are several airports with two runways. The question arose what is the capacity of these airports? Some wanted to add third ones to cope with future growth while others argued the capacity would be sufficient for the foreseeable future. This leads to the second aspect which covers the trends that dominate the further development of the German aviation markets. The latter will be shaped by the competition between various airlines and various airports. Especially important will be the new competition between old airports in Europe and new ones in Istanbul, Dubai or Abu Dhabi. Equally important is the question, how good forecasts of future growth of airports are (third aspect). Studies delivered by airports themselves show a systematic overestimation of their own growth. This leads to the fourth aspect, i.e. to the question of the economic situation of small and large airports in Germany. We have to ask, why there are so many small airports with losses. Last but not least the following topic has to be discussed: could more cooperation between large and small airports solve the difficult economic situation of the small ones without hindering the large ones? International examples are being analysed. The study concludes with a proposal for the further development of the German aviation system.