Abstract The eutrophication of the Baltic Sea continues despite decrease of the external phosphorus load by as much as 80% of the target confirmed by HELCOM. The aim of this thesis is to investigate this paradox, critically evaluate previous explanations for the persistent eutrophication, and to introduce a new diagnosis and paradigm for the causes and processes behind eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. According to the current consensus, anthropogenic nutrient loading is nearly the sole cause of eutrophication and regular cyanobacterial blooms. However, this study shows that the areal phosphorus loading rate, when modeled properly, is surprisingly low, and unlikely to be the primary cause of eutrophication. Instead, the frequency of the salt water pulses has decreased dramatically during the past 40 years. This is the root cause of eutrophication, via the hyper-vicious cycle of the hypoxic and finally anoxic conditions of the deeps causing internal phosphorus loading, denitrification, and nitrogen and carbon fixation. Furthermore, this work confirms that nitrogen fixation increases in low nitrogen conditions, further increasing eutrophication and cyanobacterial blooms. Thus, the most effective way to break the cycle of eutrophication is to improve the oxygen conditions of the deeps, which really is impossible to achieve by decreasing external loading alone. A key result of this work is that natural processes, rather than human activity, plays a decisive role in the eutrophication process – a perspective that typically faces substantial resistance. This thesis discusses how sociological and political views have affected the scientific community and its pursuit to model the mechanisms of eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. In conclusion, this study leads to important novel insights by providing new models for calculating the external and internal phosphorus loads of the Baltic Sea, with results highlighting the importance of natural processes of internal loading from the anoxic deeps. Altogether, this thesis introduces a new a paradigm for eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. / Tiivistelmä Itämeri rehevöityy edelleen, vaikka fosforikuormitusta on vähennetty 80 % tavoitellusta. On siis syytä tutkia miksi Itämeren tila ei ole parantunut. Syntyneen ristiriidan ratkaisemiseksi tarkoituksena on etsiä aiemmista tulkinnoista ristiriitoja, korjata ne ja uudistaa tietopohja uudeksi ja toimivammaksi paradigmaksi. Virhetulkintojen tunnistamiseen sovelletaan Popperin falsifikaatiomenettelyn periaatteita. Konsensuksen mukaan ihmisperäinen kuormitus on lähes yksinomainen syy (sinilevä)rehevyyteen. Kuitenkin Vollenweiderin mallin mukaan tehty, hydrologialla painotettu fosforin pintakuormitus on ollut 1970 - 1980-luvuilla vain lievää rehevyyttä edellyttävällä tasolla. Ulkoinen kuormitus ei siten voi olla suurin rehevyyden aiheuttaja. Sinilevärehevyyttä ylläpitävänä päätekijänä on syvävesiin happea tuovien suolavesipulssien toistuvuuden romahtaminen. Siitä syntyneet syvävesien ja -pohjien hapettomuudet aiheuttavat Gotlanninmeressä sekä sisäistä kuormitusta että lisärehevöittävää typen- ja hiilensidontaa. Yhdessä näitä prosesseja nimitetään nyt supernoidankehäksi. Johtopäätöksiä: • Ihmistieteelliset ja ympäristöpoliittiset näkemykset vaikuttavat luonnontieteellisiin tulkintoihin luultua enemmän. • Suolavesipulssien harventuminen on hapettomuus- ja rehevyyskierteen perussyy. • Syvänteiden hapettomuus on kaikkialle negatiivisesti säteilevä keskeistekijä. • Itämeren supernoidankehä on purettava saattamalla syvänteet hapellisiksi. • Hapellisuutta ei voida saada aikaan ulkoisen kuormituksen vähentämisellä. • Jäljelle jäävät siten teknologiset keinot, joista toteutuskelvollisimmalta näyttää Itämeren hapellisimman ja kylmimmän veden pumppaus 30 metrin syvyydestä syvänteisiin, mikä tehostaa myös pulssivesien virtausta syvänteiden pohjalle. Tämä väitöskirja sisältää viisi vallitsevasta paradigmasta poikkeavaa tulosta: 1. Itämerelle on kehitetty rehevyyden uusi diagnoosi ja paradigma, 2. Luonto dominoi Itämeren tilaa, ei ihminen, 3. Typensidonnalla on lisärehevöittävä mekanismi, 4. Itämerelle on kehitetty uusi fosforin sisäkuormituksen laskentamenetelmä, 5. Virtuaalisen fosforikuormituksen laskenta. Ilman Gotlanninmeren syvänteiden hapellisuutta Itämeri on tuomittu pysymään rehevyyden supernoidankehässä, ’kaksinkertaisessa takalukossa’.

[Truncated abstract] The Swan River is a highly seasonal estuary in the south-west of Western Australia. Salinity may vary from fresh to marine at various times throughout the estuary, depending mostly on the intensity of freshwater discharge. There are occasional problematic dinoflagellate blooms which have spurred investigation of the dynamics of the phytoplankton community. The objective of this research was to examine how phytoplankton biomass and species' successions are influenced by the multiple variables in the aquatic ecosystem, and, if possible, to determine the dominant factors ... Comparisons of phytoplankton nutrient limitation simulations with experimental observations from field bioassays require further investigation, but reinforce findings that nutrients may only limit phytoplankton biomass when there is a convergence of favourable hydrological and hydrodynamic conditions. The Swan River estuary has undergone substantial hydrological modifications from pre-European settlement. Land clearing has increased freshwater discharge up to 5- fold, while weirs and reservoirs for water supply have mitigated this increase and reduced the duration of discharge to the estuary. Nutrient loads have increased approximately 20-fold from pre-European levels. The individual and collective impacts of these hydrological changes on the Swan River estuary were examined using the hydrodynamic-ecological numerical model. The simulation results indicate that despite increased hydraulic flushing and reduced residence times, increases in nutrient loads are the dominant perturbation, producing increases in the frequency and biomass of blooms by both estuarine and freshwater phytoplankton. By comparison, changes in salinity associated with altered seasonal freshwater discharge have a limited impact on phytoplankton dynamics. Reductions of nutrient inputs into the Swan River estuary from its catchment will provide a long-term improvement in water quality but manipulations of freshwater discharge have the potential to provide a provisional short-term remediation measure allowing at least partial control of phytoplankton bloom potential and eutrophication.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / In this research, Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC) and Adaptive- Networkbased Fuzzy Inference System Models (ANFIS) were developed and implemented to determine the spatial-temporal distribution of cyanobacterial metabolites: 2-MIB and geosmin, in Eagle Creek Reservoir, IN. The research is based on the current need for understanding algae dynamics and developing prediction methods for algal taste and odor release events. In this research the methodology for prediction of 2-MIB and geosmin production was explored. The approach incorporated a combination of numerical and heuristic modeling to show its capabilities in prediction of cyanobacteria metabolites. The reservoir’s variable data measured at monitoring stations and consisting of chemical/physical and biological parameters with the addition of calculated mixing conditions within the reservoir were used to train and validate the models. The Adaptive – Network based Fuzzy Inference System performed satisfactorily in predicting the metabolites, in spite of multiple model constraints. The predictions followed the generally observed trends of algal metabolites during the three seasons over three years (2008-2010). The randomly selected data pairs for geosmin for validation achieved coefficient of determination of 0.78, while 2-MIB validation was not accepted due to large differences between two observations and their model prediction. Although, these ANFIS results were accepted, the further application of the ANFIS model coupled with the numerical models to predict spatio-temporal distribution of metabolites showed serious limitations, due to numerical model calibration errors. The EFDC-ANFIS model over-predicted Pseudanabaena spp. biovolumes for selected stations. The predicted value was 18,386,540 mm3/m3, while observed values were 942,478 mm3/m3. The model simulating Planktothrix agardhii gave negative biovolumes, which were assumed to represent zero values observed at the station. The taste and odor metabolite, geosmin, was under-predicted as the predicted v concentration was 3.43 ng/L in comparison to observed value of 11.35 ng/l. The 2-MIB model did not validate during EFDC to ANFIS model evaluation. The proposed approach and developed methodology could be used for future applications if the limitations are appropriately addressed.

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