[pt] O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o investimento em uma refinaria de petróleo no Brasil, país importador de derivados de petróleo, através da Teoria de Opções Reais, abordagem de grande valor prático e acadêmico, que realiza uma valoração mais justa da refinaria, ao incluir a modelagem das incertezas e incorporar flexibilidades gerenciais, negligenciadas pela análise tradicional. As incertezas, modeladas através de processos estocásticos, são o câmbio e o crack spread, adaptando-se o crack spread para o refino brasileiro. São avaliadas as opções de postergação, de parada temporária e sua interação. É apresentada a melhor decisão para o investimento remanescente no projeto e como ela seria alterada se o projeto ainda fosse ser iniciado. Para o investimento remanescente, a melhor decisão é postergar o projeto se a opção for perpétua e investir imediatamente se expirar em até 5 anos. Sensibilidades alterando volatilidade e taxa de conveniência apresentam recomendações diferentes, reduzindo a robustez dos resultados. Quando se considera o valor completo do investimento, a postergação é recomendada em todos os cenários analisados. A opção de parada temporária aumenta o valor da refinaria e reduz o valor da opção de postergação. O modelo desenvolvido permitiu aperfeiçoar a análise de investimento da refinaria em questão e pode ser replicado para análise de investimento em outras refinarias pertencentes à mesma empresa ou a outras. Para trabalhos futuros, recomenda-se calcular a opção de troca input–output, aperfeiçoar a modelagem do crack spread e incorporar o preço do gás como incerteza. / [en] The main objective of this study is to provide an investment analysis of a crude oil refinery in Brazil, an oil products importer country, under the real option theory, an approach with great academic and practical use, allowing a fairer refinery valuation by modeling uncertainty and including managerial flexibility, neglected in traditional analysis. The uncertainties considered, described by stochastic process, are the exchange rate and the crack spread, adapting the crack spread to the Brazilian refining. The options to defer, to shut down and their interaction are analyzed. It is shown the best decision considering the remaining investment and how this decision would be changed if the project hadn t been started. Considering the remaining investment, the best decision is to defer the investment if it is an infinitely-lived option and invest immediately if the right to invest expires upon 5 years. The influence of volatility e convenience yield was also taken into account and shows different recommendations, reducing the results robustness. When the full investment is analyzed, postponement is recommended in all analyzed scenarios. The shutdown option increases the refinery value and reduces the option to defer value. The developed model allowed an improvement in the investment analysis of this refinery and can be replicated to other refineries investment analysis, owned by the same company or not. For further works, we propose to include the switch input-output option, improve the crack spread modeling and consider the gas price as uncertainty.

[pt] Essa tese apresenta uma abordagem alternativa para orçamento de capital, denominada Métodos Modificados de Avaliação de Projetos de Investimentos em Ambiente Fuzzy, para avaliação de projetos em condições de incerteza. O desenvolvimento da abordagem proposta está dividido em duas fases: na primeira fase, é estabelecido um modelo determinístico generalizado que prevê explicitamente a utilização dos custos de oportunidade associados com os fluxos de caixa intermediários de um projeto de investimento empresarial. Os pressupostos implícitos dos métodos modificados da taxa interna de retorno e do valor presente líquido são incluídos nos métodos do índice de lucratividade e do tempo de retorno do investimento total. Os indicadores resultantes são o índice de lucratividade modificado e o tempo de retorno do investimento modificado. Essa abordagem unificada tem a propriedade de coincidir as decisões de aceitação / rejeição de projetos de investimentos de mesmos horizontes de vida e escalas com as do valor presente líquido modificado e, portanto, maximizam a riqueza do acionista. Na segunda fase, números fuzzy triangulares são utilizados para representar as incertezas das variáveis de um projeto de investimento: os fluxos de caixa, as taxas de financiamento e de reinvestimento e a taxa de desconto ajustada ao risco. Os indicadores fuzzy resultantes são o valor presente líquido modificado, a taxa interna de retorno modificada, o índice de lucratividade modificado e o tempo de retorno do investimento modificado. A aplicação de custos de oportunidades e de critérios difusos para a atribuição dos valores das variáveis permite obter resultados mais realistas e compatíveis com as condições de mercado. Devido à complexidade dos cálculos envolvidos, novas funções financeiras de uso amigável são desenvolvidas utilizando Visual Basic for Applications do MS-Excel: três, para avaliação de projetos em condições de certeza (MVPL, MIL e MTRI) e quatro para avaliação em condições de incerteza (MVPLfuzzy, MTIRfuzzy, MILfuzzy e MTRIfuzzy). A principal contribuição dessa tese é a elaboração de uma nova abordagem unificada para orçamento de capital em condições de incerteza que enfatiza os pontos fortes dos métodos modificados do valor presente líquido e da taxa interna de retorno, enquanto contorna os conflitos e as desvantagens individuais dos métodos convencionais. Os resultados mostram que os métodos propostos são mais vantajosos e mais simples de se utilizar que outros métodos de avaliação de investimentos em condições de incerteza. / [en] This thesis presents an alternative approach to capital budgeting, named Fuzzy Modified Methods of Capital Budgeting, for evaluating investment projects under uncertainties. The development of the proposed approach is divided into two phases: in the first stage, a general deterministic model that explicitly provides for the use of the opportunity costs associated with the interim cash flows of a project is established. The implicit assumptions of the modified internal rate of return and modified net present value methods are included in the index of profitability and in the total payback period. The resulting indicators are the modified index of profitability and the modified total payback period. This unified approach has the property to match the decisions of acceptance / rejection of investment projects with same horizons of life and same scales with the decisions of the modified net present value method and therefore maximize shareholder wealth. In the second phase, triangular fuzzy numbers are used to represent the uncertainties of the project variables: cash flows and reinvestment, financing and risk-adjusted discount rates. The resulting indicators are the fuzzy modified net present value, the fuzzy modified internal rate of return, the fuzzy modified index of profitability and the fuzzy modified total payback period. The application of opportunity costs and fuzzy criteria for determining the variables allows obtaining more realists and consistent results with the market conditions. Due to the complexity of the calculations involved, new MS-Excel financial functions are developed by using Visual Basic for Applications: three functions for evaluating projects under conditions of certainty (MVPL, MIL and MTRI) and four functions for evaluating projects under uncertainties (MVPLfuzzy, MTIRfuzzy, MILfuzzy and MTRIfuzzy). The main contribution of this thesis is to develop a unifying approach to capital budgeting under uncertainty that emphasizes the strengths of the methods of modified net present value and modified internal rate of return, while bypassing the individual conflicts and drawbacks of the conventional methods. Results show that the proposed methods are more advantageous and simpler to use than other methods of investment appraisal under uncertainties.

[pt] O objetivo da dissertação é contribuir para o avanço do conhecimento sobre análise de investimentos com opções reais na implementação da tecnologia blockchain em serventias extrajudiciais, segundo o ordenamento jurídico brasileiro. Para tal, desenvolveu-se um modelo teórico baseado na Teoria das Opções Reais (TOR) para analisar investimentos na tecnologia blockchain, considerando diferentes níveis de adoção dessas tecnologias em serviços notariais e registrais e tipos de opções reais. A metodologia adotada compreende: (i) pesquisa bibliográfica e documental sobre o tema central da dissertação; (ii) análise de conteúdo para mapear as espécies de serventias extrajudiciais existentes no ordenamento jurídico brasileiro, associando-as aos níveis de adoção da tecnologia blockchain reportados na literatura; (iii) desenvolvimento do modelo teórico para análise de investimentos com opções reais na implementação da tecnologia blockchain no referido contexto; (iv) demonstração da aplicabilidade do modelo proposto, a partir de dados primários coletados em uma serventia extrajudicial localizada no Estado do Paraná; e (v) análise reflexiva sobre os potenciais benefícios econômicos e não econômicos da adoção da tecnologia blockchain nas operações de serviços notariais e registrais no Brasil. Destacam-se como resultados principais um modelo de análise de investimentos com opções reais na implementação da tecnologia blockchain em serviços notariais e registrais no Brasil e a avaliação de seus impactos econômicos e não econômicos para os oficiais titulares, usuários dos serviços e a sociedade em geral. / [en] This dissertation aims to contribute to the advancement of knowledge on the analysis of investments with real options in the implementation of blockchain technology in notary offices under the Brazilian legal framework. To achieve this, a theoretical model was developed based on the Real Options Theory (ROT) to analyze investments in blockchain technology, considering varying levels of adoption of this technology in notarial and registry services, as well as types of real options. The adopted methodology encompasses: (i) bibliographic and documentary research on the central themes of the dissertation; (ii) content analysis to map the types of notarial and registry offices existing in the Brazilian legal framework, associating them with the reported levels of adoption of blockchain technology reported in the literature; (iii) development of a theoretical model for the analysis of investments with real options in the aforementioned context; (iv) of the applicability of the proposed model, based on primary data collected from an extrajudicial office located in the state of Paraná; and (v) reflective analysis of the potential economic and non-economic benefits of adopting blockchain technology in notarial and registry services in Brazil. The main results include a model for the analysis of investments with real options in the implementation of blockchain technology in notarial and registry services in Brazil, along with an assessment of its economic and noneconomic impacts on titular officials, service users, and society in general.

The main objective of this thesis is to analyze selected sectors of the European capital market by means of methods of technical and fundamental analysis. Based on the results obtained for each frame exchanges, industry sectors and the best investment strategy. The first part deals with the theoretical description of securities to capital markets, investment strategies, methods of assessment of the securities in the capital markets, the theory of efficient markets, market testing and evidence of their effectiveness. On the European stock market index, including the German DAX30 randomly selected ninety nine companies with data for the period 2006 {-} the 2011th The work on the basis of a confirmed capital market inefficiencies can be found active investment strategy to achieve above average returns.

The aim of this diploma work was to analyze a selected segment of the stock exchange market using the theory of market efficiency and the methods of technical and fundamental analysis, to form an optimal investment strategy on the basis of the findings. The American stock exchange market was analyzed. Six different segments of the capital market were selected ? gold, oil and gas pipelines, steel and iron, car parts, food and telecommunication services. Each segment was represented by eight companies. The general characteristics of the companies were compared according to their profits, degree of risk, alpha and beta coefficients. Fundamental analysis was used to monitor the correlation between future profits for 2012 and alpha coefficients for the period 2007 ? 2011. The theory was proven ? at low levels of future profits, high levels of alpha coefficients were measured and vice versa - at high levels of future profits, low levels of alpha coefficients were measured. During efficiency tests, runs tests and correlation tests were monitored. During runs tests, the number of turns of a real file was compared with the number of runs of a simulated file; no distinctive variances were identified in the monitored stock titles. Forms of market efficiency were proven during the correlation tests and runs tests. The methods of technical analysis used were sliding averages, RSI indicators and Momentum. Trading on the basis of technical analysis is not completely possible because we did not succeed in finding an existing optimal strategy. If an optimal strategy works out it is regardless of the segment?s characteristics. I recommend a passive strategy with regards to the fundamental analysis.

This thesis deals with the economic evaluation of optimalization of transport infrastructure. Aim of the thesis is to define problematics of economical evaluation of public investment projects and It’s specifics. In analytical part It describes theme of public sector, project life cycle, cost output methods and transport infrastructure evaluation. In the practical part, the project is analysed in the original variant and in case of project suspension for one year. Furthermore, there are perfomed evaluation analyses by sensitivity and quantitative analyzes for both variants.

This thesis is focused on estimation of investment project in limited company called GSR s.r.o. The investment goes to the company area, which includes an administration building with its offices and store. The area location should be in Uherské Hradiště or its near surroundings. GSR s.r.o. is going to buy a piece of land according to above mentioned requirements and builds the administration building itself. The main aim of this thesis is to compare two possibilities – to sale this finished company area or to lease the finished company area for 20 years and to sale after 20 years.

The master‘s thesis discusses the evaluation of the project regarding the purchase of machinery scissors for GAFLEX, s. r. o., which is a major producer of chimneys and provider of chimney services. Work is divided into three parts, where the introductory part addresses theoretical platforms dedicated to funding and investments, the second part is an economic impact assessment and an analysis of the firm, and the third section contains proposals for potentially funding an investment in the company and evaluating the effectiveness of the investment.

Social value incorporates economic, environmental, and social impact in public policy decision- making. Social Return on Investment (SROI) has emerged as a popular way to measure social value. SROI is a tool for nonprofit organizations and social enterprises to measure their impact and express it in a common economic unit. This study employed a systematic review approach to assess the quality of SROI reports in the advocacy and human rights sector. The goal of this study was to determine whether SROI can measure the broader social effects of a program. Findings indicate that SROI has been used primarily by health and social services and significantly less often by advocacy and human rights groups. As such, the methodology has not yet been robustly applied to study very broad social effects associated with advocacy and human rights interventions. The social outcomes are usually captured qualitatively and not often quantitatively. Further, the social outcomes are rarely monetized due to a lack of financial proxies. SROI would benefit from being applied to a robust advocacy or human rights program, specifically focusing on broad social effects.

The subject of the diploma thesis is to acquaint the reader with the issue of a public investment project and then apply the information found to the case study in the form of a financial and economic evaluation of the selected investment plan. The evaluated investment project is the reconstruction of a cinema in the village of Hustopeče in the South Moravian Region, while the identified outputs were achieved using the cost method of cost-benefit analysis using the eCBA application. Part of the evaluation also includes a risk analysis in the form of a sensitivity and qualitative analysis.