This study is concerned with the behaviour of exchange rate movements focusing specifically on purchasing power parity (PPP) and the non-stationarity of real exchange rates, for a number of East Asian currencies during their recent floating periods. As one of the most important building blocks in international economies, PPP forms a core component of several models of exchange rate determination, and it is the most intensively tested hypothesis in open-economy macroeconomics. Nevertheless, in contrast to the relative abundance of research on the currencies of industrialised countries, very few studies on East Asian currencies have been carried out, leaving an important gap in the literature. Using recent advances in time series analysis, the results reveal for the East Asian countries that there existed long-run comovement between the nominal exchange rate and domestic and foreign price levels, but that the strict PPP condition claimed by the theory did not hold. This implied that any deviation from the PPP equilibrium was permanent and that there was little tendency for the real exchange rate to be mean reverting. Further investigation suggested that the real exchange rate was cointegrated with fundamentals, with most of the variables entering the cointegration vector significantly, suggesting that the movements of real exchange rate were driven by these factors. Investigating the dynamic paths of the real exchange rate and the long-run relationship (cointegrating relationship) in response to exogenous shocks also revealed that the real exchange rates did not revert to their pre-shock equilibrium, but that the long-run relationship did. It took, normally three to five years, for the real exchange rate to reach and settle down to a new equilibrium and even if the effect of shocks on the long-run relationship was transitory, the speed of convergence to the equilibrium was slow. The results also showed that the effects of shocks vary from one country to another. This meant that there was no universal panacea to deal with fluctuations in real exchange rates, as they were influenced by a country's natural endowment, stage in industrialisation, as well as monetary and exchange policies.

【第一篇論文中文摘要】 本文使用路透社央行干預匯市的新聞報導，探討哪些因素可以提高亞洲央行成功干預匯市的機率，研究期間為2005年1月至2011年4月。此研究期間涵蓋全球金融風暴和美國採行量化寬鬆政策，因此，亞洲貨幣在逐步對美元升值後發生大幅度的貶值。研究結果顯示印尼、馬來西亞、菲律賓、新加坡、台灣及泰國的央行採取逆風而行的策略是有效的干預方式，而且多個國家在同日干預匯市及第一日的干預會有較高成功的機率。 【第二篇論文中文摘要】 本文透過不同的研究方法針對亞洲國家央行干預匯率市場的有效性再次驗證，研究期間為2005年1月至2011年4月，實證結果顯示亞洲國家在次貸風暴期間面臨美元升值的壓力，央行會採取賣美元的方式來干預匯市，但是這種干預匯市的方式卻僅能減緩美元升值的趨勢，其中以印尼盾、新加坡元、新台幣紛紛對美元貶值較為明顯，而在次貸風暴發生之後，美國實施量化寬鬆政策造成亞洲國家卻面臨美元貶值的壓力，各國央行改採買美元的方式來干預匯市，但是此種干預匯市的方式也只造成美元緩慢貶值的趨勢，其中印尼盾、馬來西亞令吉、新加坡元、韓圜、泰銖分別對美元升值的趨勢較為明顯，此現象反應亞洲央行干預匯市是採取逆風而行的策略，雖然能降低匯率的波動，但無法改變匯率的升貶值趨勢。 【第三篇論文中文摘要】 本研究是在探討印度、印尼、南韓、馬來西亞、新加坡、泰國及台灣央行透過干預匯率市場，對其國家的公司在美國發行存託憑證折溢價的影響，研究期間為2005年1月至2011年4月。研究結果顯示央行對匯市干預造成的變動，確實會影響到該國公司在美國發行的存託憑證產生折價的情形。另外，亞洲央行使用買美元干預匯市的作法會對該國公司在美國發行的存託憑證產生溢價，而央行透過賣美元干預匯市的作法會對該國公司在美國發行的存託憑證產生折價的影響，但是由於樣本資料的限制，其效果在統計上並不顯著。由公司層面的分析可以看出央行透過賣美元來干預匯市對其國家的公司在美國發行的存託憑證會有明顯產生折價的影響。 / 【第一篇論文英文摘要】 Using Reuters’ news reports on central bank interventions, we investigate the factors that increase the odds of intervention success by Asian central banks in the foreign exchange market from January 2005 to April 2011. This period coincides with the global credit crisis and quantitative easing policy, which have engendered a sharp depreciation followed by a gradual appreciation of Asian currencies. The results show that leaning-against-the-wind intervention strategies are effective in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. We also find that joint and first day interventions are associated with higher odds of effective intervention. 【第二篇論文英文摘要】 This paper examines the effectiveness of central bank interventions in the foreign exchange market from January 2005 to April 2011 in Asia. The results show that the central banks in Asia intervene in the foreign exchange markets by selling U.S. dollars to prevent severe depreciation of local currencies during the global credit crisis. However, central bankers can only slow down the trend of depreciation of local currencies against U.S. dollar. The currencies apparently depreciate against U.S. dollar in Indonesia, Singapore, and Taiwan. After the global credit crisis, Asian countries confront appreciations of local currencies due to the US quantitative easing policy. The central banks in Asia intervene by purchasing U.S. dollars in the foreign exchange market. Nevertheless, intervention strategies slowly reduce U.S. dollar depreciations. The foreign exchange rate apparently appreciate against U.S. dollar in India, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand. Results show that Asian central banks adopt leaning-against-the-wind intervention strategies during the sample period. Their interventions in the foreign exchange market can only reduce fluctuations in the foreign exchange rate, but fail to reverse the trend of Asian exchange rates. 【第三篇論文英文摘要】 This paper examines whether Asian central bank interventions in the foreign exchange market affect the discount or premium of American Depositary Receipt (ADR) of Asian companies from January 2005 to April 2011. The sample consists of companies from Indian, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore. Empirical results show that central bank interventions increase ADR discounts of companies in Asian countries. In addition, interventions by purchasing U.S. dollars result in higher ADR premiums, and the strategies of selling U.S. dollars affect ADR discounts. Though some of the empirical results are not statistically significant due to limited sample size, results based on individual firms show that selling USD interventions by Asian central banks have a significant impact on their ADR discounts.