With the global economy in a crisis, debt levels are at an all-time high. The United States of America’s national debt exceeds $14 trillion and the South African outstanding gross consumer credit book is at R1,39 trillion. This pattern of debt levels is seen worldwide, with various adverse effects on the debtors and the economy in general. Although debt is an important mechanism in the growth of an economy, the amount of debt must be managed. Unsecured debt is a higher risk loan offered to debtors who cannot support the debt through any form of security. Default on this type of debt leaves the creditor with only a few options to recover the debt. It is thus important to understand the reasons for these defaults in order to manage the debtor and the risk associated with these loans. This study investigates the default rate and demographics of unsecured debt defaulters. A large study population is analysed to determine the total default rate and demographics of the defaulting debtors. The aim is to get a better understanding of the risk involved in unsecured debt in order to manage the credit vetting process more efficiently. Factors including loan size, number of loans, geographic distribution, gender and the age of debtors are studied to determine the profile of a typical debt defaulter. This is then compared to the non-defaulting population. The research findings confirm that there are statistically significant correlations between loan size, number of loans, geographic distribution, gender and age and the number of defaults in the population. The practical significance is, however, weak. It further proves that the profile of a defaulting debtors’ book is the same as the initial debtors’ book. A further challenge will be to incorporate affordability and other relevant data to understand the defaulting population and the reasons for default better. / MBA, North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

The study is based on the financial statistics published by the Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) to analysis the behavior of Taiwan credit cardholders after the dual card crisis and the global financial storm. In the meantime, the data as of September and November 2008 is applied to examine the impact of credit cardholders in different segments who have cash needs after the regulation implementation. The study concludes that: 1. The behavior of credit cardholders impacted by the dual card crisis and the global financial storm Using various statistical charts and one-way ANOVA analysis can be found that after the dual card crisis and global financial storm, the revolving credit balance of credit card market reduced year by year. Obviously, a correct concept of card usage is established gradually. Cardholders should not only enjoy the convenience of credit card, but also control the burden of over spending. 2. The cash advance amount deteriorated due to FSC regulation implementation After a series of guided actions launched by FSC, people no longer rely on credit card as a financing tool but treat it as a payment implement. The amount of cash advance shrink while the cardholders who have cash advance need get financing from personal loan. 3. The impact is various between each segment by regulation Using Independent-Sample T Test, it is found that there are no significant differences in credit card cash advance features for cardholders who have debt burden ratio greater than 22 times of the monthly income, the internal employee, and cardholders whose credit line is greater than NT$800,000.

With the global economy in a crisis, debt levels are at an all-time high. The United States of America’s national debt exceeds $14 trillion and the South African outstanding gross consumer credit book is at R1,39 trillion. This pattern of debt levels is seen worldwide, with various adverse effects on the debtors and the economy in general. Although debt is an important mechanism in the growth of an economy, the amount of debt must be managed. Unsecured debt is a higher risk loan offered to debtors who cannot support the debt through any form of security. Default on this type of debt leaves the creditor with only a few options to recover the debt. It is thus important to understand the reasons for these defaults in order to manage the debtor and the risk associated with these loans. This study investigates the default rate and demographics of unsecured debt defaulters. A large study population is analysed to determine the total default rate and demographics of the defaulting debtors. The aim is to get a better understanding of the risk involved in unsecured debt in order to manage the credit vetting process more efficiently. Factors including loan size, number of loans, geographic distribution, gender and the age of debtors are studied to determine the profile of a typical debt defaulter. This is then compared to the non-defaulting population. The research findings confirm that there are statistically significant correlations between loan size, number of loans, geographic distribution, gender and age and the number of defaults in the population. The practical significance is, however, weak. It further proves that the profile of a defaulting debtors’ book is the same as the initial debtors’ book. A further challenge will be to incorporate affordability and other relevant data to understand the defaulting population and the reasons for default better. / MBA, North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

This diploma thesis provides complex analysis of the current development of the U.S. subprime mortgage and credit crisis. The thesis examines the major issues that have contributed to the crisis and it follows with identifying likely consequences. In the end of the paper are discussed some recommendations to help avoid future crises.

In a firm level matched sample of 499 firms we examine the information flow between stocks and the credit default swap (CDSs) over a period of January 2004 to December 2008. Our study confirms the general findings of previous studies that the information generally flows from equity market to CDS market. However, for a much smaller number of firms we also find that information also flows from the CDS to its stock. A major advantage of our sample period is that it allows us to examine the information flow before and during the crisis. This paper makes two contributions. We document that the firms for which the information flows from the CDS to its stock increases by almost tenfold during the crisis. The current crisis is often referred as a credit crisis, so this finding is consistent with what is expected of CDSs. The major contribution of this paper is that it identifies the firm specific factors that influence the information flow across the two markets. We show that characteristics such as asset size, profitability, and industry, amongst others, play an important role in determining information flow.

Credit Default Swaps have become a large part of financial markets and recently the center of debate between academics and regulators alike. Transferring the techniques to measure information flow between the CDS market and stock markets presented by Acharya and Johnson (2007), this paper looks at the relationship between a countries sovereign CDS spread level and its predominate stock exchange. Under the back drop of the Greek Credit Crisis in Spring of 2010 I measure contagion effects in the Euro Zone comparing the level of Granger causality significance between the stock and CDS market. I find that the greatest information flow from the CDS market to the stock market is during credit shocks or times of high credit distress. My results also point to the significance of the contagion effect in the CDS market but not in the stock market.

In a firm level matched sample of 499 firms we examine the information flow between stocks and the credit default swap (CDSs) over a period of January 2004 to December 2008. Our study confirms the general findings of previous studies that the information generally flows from equity market to CDS market. However, for a much smaller number of firms we also find that information also flows from the CDS to its stock. A major advantage of our sample period is that it allows us to examine the information flow before and during the crisis. This paper makes two contributions. We document that the firms for which the information flows from the CDS to its stock increases by almost tenfold during the crisis. The current crisis is often referred as a credit crisis, so this finding is consistent with what is expected of CDSs. The major contribution of this paper is that it identifies the firm specific factors that influence the information flow across the two markets. We show that characteristics such as asset size, profitability, and industry, amongst others, play an important role in determining information flow.

This study examined the determinants of commercial bank liquidity in South Africa. The panel regression approach was used, applying panel data from twelve commercial banks over the period 2006 to 2016. A quantitative research method was used to investigate the relationship between bank liquidity and some microeconomic and bank-specific factors and between bank liquidity and selected macro-economic factors. The regression analysis for four liquidity ratios was conducted using the pooled ordinary least squares regression, fixed effects, random effects and the generalised methods of moments. However, the system generalised methods of moments approach was preferred over the other methods because it eliminated the problem of endogeneity. Results show that capital adequacy, size and gross domestic product have a positive and significant effect on liquidity. Loan growth and non-performing loans had a negative and significant effect on liquidity. Inflation had both a positive and a negative but an insignificant effect on liquidity. The study concluded that South African banks could enhance their liquidity positions by tightening their loan-underwriting criteria and credit policies. Banks should improve their credit risk management frameworks to be more prudent in their lending practices to improve the quality of the loan book to enhance liquidity. They also need to grow their capital levels by embarking on efficient revenue enhancements activities. Banks may also to look at their clients on an overall basis and not on transaction bases, and they need to improve non-interest revenue by introducing innovated products. The South African Reserve Bank could push for policies that might enhance capitalisation by ensuring that the sector is consolidated and thus merging smaller banks to create banks with stronger balance sheets and stronger capital base. This study contributes to the empirical research repository on the determinants of liquidity and more specifically, it identified the significant factors that affect South African commercial bank liquidity. Identifying the determinants of South African commercial bank liquidity will provide the South African Reserve Bank with insight into ways of enhancing liquidity management reforms, to improve the sector’s liquidity management practices and help to maintain a sound and liquid banking sector. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

The global financial crisis that commenced in June 2007 has been described as the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It resulted in considerable international distress with almost all major banks experiencing capital shortages and some defaulting outright. Among the principal causes was an explosive increase - by a factor of ten in some cases - in credit defaults precipitated by lax lending standards which prevailed for several years. The crisis caused several major institutions to fail (and be subsequently acquired under duress): many of these were subject to takeovers by their relevant sovereigns, including - amongst others - Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and American International Group and AIG. The financial crisis is believed to be directly responsible for the bleak forecasts (2009 and beyond) faced by the global economy. The measure of global volatility, the VIX, trebled in the third quarter of 2008, interest rate spreads between government fixed income securities and interbank rates widened to unprecedented levels, global inflation threatened an already fragile, volatile marketplace, corporate and retail loan default rates rose and downgrades of large financial institutions (such as US Monoline bond insurers)and manycorporates were experienced by major rating agencies during the first quarter of 2009. The aim of this thesis was to discuss and critically evaluate how the financial crisis has impacted banking risks and also the effect it had on international banks. This has been accomplished through the modification of existing risk measurement techniques and, in some cases, through the development of new techniques, when older risk models proved to be inadequate. A principal secondary aim of the thesis was the testing of these methodologies - in real-world contexts - to ascertain their reliability and robustness concomitant with the adaptation of these methodologies in the light of the new empirical evidence. Important other secondary objectives were the development of novel approaches w0here the research results required it and and the introduction of practical ways to use the results of the thesis in a post-crisis bank risk management environment. Some of the bank asset portfolios that were investigated in the thesis were generated bysimulated data to replicate specific characteristics during the crisis, while the other portfolios comprised entirelyof empirical data. The first objective, of the thesis, was to determine the effect of stressed economic conditions on b.erational risk loss distributions. The depth and duration of the credit crisis have highlighted a number of problems in modern finance. Banks have been accused of excessive risk taking, rating agencies of severe conflicts of interest, central banks of neglecting the inflation of asset price bubbles and national supervisors of laxregulatorycontrols. Credit and market losses have been considerable. Operational losses have also surged as surviving corporates merge or acquire less fortunate ones without the requisite controls. As more jobs get made redundant it is believed that employees revert to internal fraud as their sources of income have dried up drasticallyand stealing from the institution seems to b.tional losses have been affected has been presented and a comparison has been made between operational loss characteristics pre and during the crisis. Some of the main findings were that operational losses have shown little change in frequency, but shown a significant increase in severity, meaning that their financial impact has been more severe during the crisis. It is safe to saythat the financial crisis most definitelyin.creased operational risk in banks much more severe losses. The second objective was to focus on the effect of the stressed economic conditions on the applicability and effectiveness of the credit risk measurement methodologies and the minimum capital requirements, pre.scribed to banks in Basel II. The robustness of the Basel II accord in protecting banks during volatile eco.nomic periods has been challenged in the ongoing financial crisis. Advanced approaches to measuring and managing credit risk in particular have drawn criticism for being too complexand irrelevant. Despite accusa.tions that the accord was largelyresponsible for the crisis, this studyexplored which of Basel II's credit risk approaches were more successful in measuring the bank?s credit risk and calculating the required minimum capital charge for the bank. It was found that, in general, compliance with Basel II actuallyprotected banks during the crisis with the simpler approaches enjoying greater success than more advanced ones, in protect.ing banks against credit risk. The third objective was to appraise the effect of stressed economic conditions on the systemic risk within the South African Banking sector. The financial crisis resulted in increases in credit-, market-and opera.tional risk, but it mayalso have precipitated a surge in systemic risk. Measuring systemic risk as the price of insurance against distressed losses in the South African banking sector, this studyillustrated that the finan.cial crisis has in fact resulted in an increase in systemic risk. Using probabilities of default and asset return correlations as systemic risk indicators, it was established that the financial crisis has indeed increased sys.temic risk in South Africa. The impact was, however, less severe than that experienced in other large interna.tional banks. The fourth and final objective of this studywas to focus on liquiditycreation in South African banks under stressed economic conditions. The financial crisis placed severe pressure on global bank liquidity. Many banks were unable to create sufficient liquidityand had to receive government support or face default. This studyillustrated the impact of the financial crisis on liquiditycreation within South African banks using a model previouslyapplied to US banks. Four measures of liquiditycreation are discussed and applied to data spanning 2004 ? 2009. Although created liquiditydecreased steeplyfrom 2007, liquidity levels in 2009re.main about 45% higher than those of 2004. The four large South African banks created about 80% of the total market liquidity, and a possible reason for this is that these banks have verylarge retail divisions, which have assisted them in creating much more liquiditythan the smaller banks which have much smaller retail divisions. In conclusion, and as illustrated through the findings of this study, the financial crisis did impact the major banking risks on various levels and it is therefore safe to saythat the financial crisis has reformed the interna.tional risk management environment and will also do so in the years to come. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.

The global financial crisis that commenced in June 2007 has been described as the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It resulted in considerable international distress with almost all major banks experiencing capital shortages and some defaulting outright. Among the principal causes was an explosive increase - by a factor of ten in some cases - in credit defaults precipitated by lax lending standards which prevailed for several years. The crisis caused several major institutions to fail (and be subsequently acquired under duress): many of these were subject to takeovers by their relevant sovereigns, including - amongst others - Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and American International Group and AIG. The financial crisis is believed to be directly responsible for the bleak forecasts (2009 and beyond) faced by the global economy. The measure of global volatility, the VIX, trebled in the third quarter of 2008, interest rate spreads between government fixed income securities and interbank rates widened to unprecedented levels, global inflation threatened an already fragile, volatile marketplace, corporate and retail loan default rates rose and downgrades of large financial institutions (such as US Monoline bond insurers)and manycorporates were experienced by major rating agencies during the first quarter of 2009. The aim of this thesis was to discuss and critically evaluate how the financial crisis has impacted banking risks and also the effect it had on international banks. This has been accomplished through the modification of existing risk measurement techniques and, in some cases, through the development of new techniques, when older risk models proved to be inadequate. A principal secondary aim of the thesis was the testing of these methodologies - in real-world contexts - to ascertain their reliability and robustness concomitant with the adaptation of these methodologies in the light of the new empirical evidence. Important other secondary objectives were the development of novel approaches w0here the research results required it and and the introduction of practical ways to use the results of the thesis in a post-crisis bank risk management environment. Some of the bank asset portfolios that were investigated in the thesis were generated bysimulated data to replicate specific characteristics during the crisis, while the other portfolios comprised entirelyof empirical data. The first objective, of the thesis, was to determine the effect of stressed economic conditions on b.erational risk loss distributions. The depth and duration of the credit crisis have highlighted a number of problems in modern finance. Banks have been accused of excessive risk taking, rating agencies of severe conflicts of interest, central banks of neglecting the inflation of asset price bubbles and national supervisors of laxregulatorycontrols. Credit and market losses have been considerable. Operational losses have also surged as surviving corporates merge or acquire less fortunate ones without the requisite controls. As more jobs get made redundant it is believed that employees revert to internal fraud as their sources of income have dried up drasticallyand stealing from the institution seems to b.tional losses have been affected has been presented and a comparison has been made between operational loss characteristics pre and during the crisis. Some of the main findings were that operational losses have shown little change in frequency, but shown a significant increase in severity, meaning that their financial impact has been more severe during the crisis. It is safe to saythat the financial crisis most definitelyin.creased operational risk in banks much more severe losses. The second objective was to focus on the effect of the stressed economic conditions on the applicability and effectiveness of the credit risk measurement methodologies and the minimum capital requirements, pre.scribed to banks in Basel II. The robustness of the Basel II accord in protecting banks during volatile eco.nomic periods has been challenged in the ongoing financial crisis. Advanced approaches to measuring and managing credit risk in particular have drawn criticism for being too complexand irrelevant. Despite accusa.tions that the accord was largelyresponsible for the crisis, this studyexplored which of Basel II's credit risk approaches were more successful in measuring the bank?s credit risk and calculating the required minimum capital charge for the bank. It was found that, in general, compliance with Basel II actuallyprotected banks during the crisis with the simpler approaches enjoying greater success than more advanced ones, in protect.ing banks against credit risk. The third objective was to appraise the effect of stressed economic conditions on the systemic risk within the South African Banking sector. The financial crisis resulted in increases in credit-, market-and opera.tional risk, but it mayalso have precipitated a surge in systemic risk. Measuring systemic risk as the price of insurance against distressed losses in the South African banking sector, this studyillustrated that the finan.cial crisis has in fact resulted in an increase in systemic risk. Using probabilities of default and asset return correlations as systemic risk indicators, it was established that the financial crisis has indeed increased sys.temic risk in South Africa. The impact was, however, less severe than that experienced in other large interna.tional banks. The fourth and final objective of this studywas to focus on liquiditycreation in South African banks under stressed economic conditions. The financial crisis placed severe pressure on global bank liquidity. Many banks were unable to create sufficient liquidityand had to receive government support or face default. This studyillustrated the impact of the financial crisis on liquiditycreation within South African banks using a model previouslyapplied to US banks. Four measures of liquiditycreation are discussed and applied to data spanning 2004 ? 2009. Although created liquiditydecreased steeplyfrom 2007, liquidity levels in 2009re.main about 45% higher than those of 2004. The four large South African banks created about 80% of the total market liquidity, and a possible reason for this is that these banks have verylarge retail divisions, which have assisted them in creating much more liquiditythan the smaller banks which have much smaller retail divisions. In conclusion, and as illustrated through the findings of this study, the financial crisis did impact the major banking risks on various levels and it is therefore safe to saythat the financial crisis has reformed the interna.tional risk management environment and will also do so in the years to come. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.