No description available.

<p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p>Bedömning inom skolan är något komplext och bedömningsbegrepp likaså, hur de definieras, tolkas och används. Hur bedömning förmedlas till en elev är av stor betydelse för det fortsatta lärandet. Rätt utformad kan denna förmedling resultera i ett ökat engagemang hos eleven och en förbättring av elevens lärande. Behovet av att förstå bedömningsprocesser och olika former av bedömning är idag högaktuellt inom svensk grundskola i och med att landets skolor och rektorer givits i uppdrag att utforma skriftliga omdömen från skolår 1. Även om det gått snart ett år sedan uppdraget gavs är det i kontakter med lärare och rektorer tydligt att utformandet av skriftliga omdömen i många fall är en process som är långt ifrån klar. För att kunna utforma dessa omdömen på tillfredsställande sätt behövs djupare kunskaper om bedömningsbegrepp.</p><p> </p><p>Denna studie är en forskningsöversikt, en analytisk undersökning av aktuell forskning kring bedömningsbegreppet. I översikten problematiseras bedömningsbegreppet inom skolans värld för att tydliggöra hur olika former av bedömning definieras och används inom svensk och anglosaxisk forskning. Undersökningen omfattar 48 källor, varav 27 svenska. Dessa har analyserats genom en studie av definitioner, argument, formuleringar, författarnas perspektiv och eventuella personliga ställningstaganden, samt om de är att betrakta som problematiserande eller enbart konstaterande.</p><p> </p><p>Resultatet visar att det inom den anglosaxiska forskningen, som dominerar den internationella forskningen kring bedömning, finns en betydligt högre grad av problematisering och diskussion kring bedömningsbegrepp än inom svensk forskning. Inom svensk forskning är det istället lätt att tro att det råder konsensus i hur man tolkar och förstår bedömningsbegrepp. Denna villfarelse skapas av en brist på definitioner och en avsaknad av diskussioner kring begrepp. Istället problematiseras summativ bedömning i form av betyg utifrån frågan om likvärdighet, en diskussion som saknas i anglosaxisk forskning.</p><p> </p><p>Vid en jämförelse av svensk och anglosaxisk forskning kring bedömning framträder en tydlig skillnad i fokus, även om svensk forskning börjar närma sig ett anglosaxiskt perspektiv. Detta genom att inta ett övergripande perspektiv på bedömning istället för att se formativ och summativ bedömning som separata företeelser. Att tala övergripande i termer av kunskapsbedömning innebär dock inte att svårigheterna för bedömning att uppfylla kraven för att tillskrivas såväl formativ som summativ karaktär försvinner Detta är något som den anglosaxiska forskningen tydligt vittnar om.</p>

Stock assessments for many U.S. Pacific coast groundfish stocks are developed using the catch-at-age method known as Stock Synthesis. In this work a simulation package was developed and used to evaluate the sensitivity of the Stock Synthesis program. More specifically, the evaluation focused on the impacts of input data errors and stock characteristics on the accuracy and precision of Synthesis estimates. Factors examined included the length of the time series of data, the rate of natural mortality, the shape of the fishery and survey selectivity curves, the trend in the rate of fishing mortality, the recruitment pattern, and errors in the observed data for annual catch, fishing effort, fishery and survey age composition, and survey biomass indices. First, the study evaluated the sensitivity of the Stock Synthesis program applied to populations with simple multinomial age compositions. The length of the data series and sample size were the two most influential factors. Second, the study focused on populations with compound multinomial age composition, in which the age composition data were over-dispersed relative to simple multinomial samples. When the fishery age composition actually followed a compound multinomial distribution, the estimates produced by the Stock Synthesis program, which assumed simple multinomial distributions with maximum sample sizes of 400 fish, were moderately more biased and more variable. When applying Synthesis to populations whose age compositions follow compound multinomial distributions, the results from the experiments indicated that a common configuration, in which age sample sizes in the likelihood specification are limited to 400 fish per sample, probably gives age composition data too much emphasis. The experiments indicated that using 200 as the upper limit provided more accurate results than using 400. Third, the actual stock assessment of yellowfin sole (Limanda Aspera) was taken as a case study and it was found that more accurate assessment results could be achieved from a better balance in the amount of sampling effort allocated to age composition data versus survey biomass estimates. / Graduation date: 2002

Statistical modeling has evolved around building increasingly more complex models, even though it is common knowledge among statisticians that an optimal model size usually exists for any given data set. Having overly complex models leads to imprecise parameter estimates and tends to increase the subjective role of the modeler, which can distort the perceived characteristics of the system under investigation. One approach for controlling the tendency of contemporary models to increase in complexity and subjectivity is to use model selection criteria that account for these factors. The initial task of this thesis was to review existing model selection criteria. The second task involved testing the effectiveness of several model selection criteria. The Stock Synthesis program, which is often used on the U.S. west coast to assess the status of exploited marine fish stocks, was used for this evaluation because of its ability to handle multiple data sets and mimic highly complex population dynamics. In the review of existing model selection criteria the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz's Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) were identified as the criteria that most completely satisfied the fundamental principles of model selection: goodness-of-fit, parsimony, and objectivity. Their ability to select the correct model form and produce accurate parameter estimates was evaluated in Monte Carlo experiments with the Stock Synthesis program and were compared to a simple maximum log-likelihood criterion. The maximum log-likelihood criterion surprisingly outperformed both AIC and BIC in several of the experiments. / Graduation date: 1999

In recent years, increased attention has been paid to accelerating the development of struggling young adolescents’ reading skills (Franzak, 2006). It has been widely acknowledged that these students require intensive instruction in reading in order to meet changing societal demands (Allington, 2002; Afflerbach, 2004; Alvermann, 2001; Biancarosa & Snow, 2004). Score reporting from the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) may demonstrate a dichotomy amongst our young adolescent readers, but the scores do not tell us about the specific needs of individual students. In other words, these levels essentially create two groups: those who can read and those who cannot. Further, instructional decisions are being made based on the limited proficiency scores of state mandated standardized assessments. This method of reporting scores creates a notion of homogeneity amongst the reading skills of young adolescents. The purpose of this multivariate correlational study was to determine the patterns of reading abilities amongst struggling young adolescent readers in an attempt to demonstrate the heterogeneous nature of these students and the variability of reading skills they bring to middle school classrooms (grades 6-8), in an effort to influence both policy and instruction at this level. Data were collected during the 2005-2006 academic year. Each student participant (n=94) was administered five assessments that measured alphabetics (phonemic awareness and phonics), fluency, vocabulary, and comprehension, which were representative of both the highly and less constrained skills (Paris, 2005) presented as essential components of reading instruction by the National Reading Panel (NRP, 2000). Independent samples t-tests were used to compare the assessment means of several subgroups, students who qualified for special education, free and reduced price lunch, and English Language Learner services, and those who did not qualify for these services. Results indicated all of these students scored below grade level on the assessments administered. However, all of the students represented varying abilities and needs that required further analysis. Factor analysis was then utilized to determine which reading skills assessed were most directly related to student performance on TCAP. Three factors emerged, meaning, decoding, and rate and accuracy. Finally, cluster analysis presented four distinct clusters of struggling young adolescents, which represented heterogeneous abilities in various reading skills. Results indicated one-size-fits-all approaches to policy and instruction relating to struggling young adolescent readers do not meet the heterogeneous needs of this population of students. Rather, in-depth assessment and diagnoses are necessary to determine the most appropriate instructional tools for individual students. Further, by suggesting the use of state mandated standardized assessment scores be the sole indicator of student placement in remedial reading courses, policy fails to address the multifaceted process of reading and the differing trajectories of young adolescent reading development.

No description available.

Bedömning inom skolan är något komplext och bedömningsbegrepp likaså, hur de definieras, tolkas och används. Hur bedömning förmedlas till en elev är av stor betydelse för det fortsatta lärandet. Rätt utformad kan denna förmedling resultera i ett ökat engagemang hos eleven och en förbättring av elevens lärande. Behovet av att förstå bedömningsprocesser och olika former av bedömning är idag högaktuellt inom svensk grundskola i och med att landets skolor och rektorer givits i uppdrag att utforma skriftliga omdömen från skolår 1. Även om det gått snart ett år sedan uppdraget gavs är det i kontakter med lärare och rektorer tydligt att utformandet av skriftliga omdömen i många fall är en process som är långt ifrån klar. För att kunna utforma dessa omdömen på tillfredsställande sätt behövs djupare kunskaper om bedömningsbegrepp.   Denna studie är en forskningsöversikt, en analytisk undersökning av aktuell forskning kring bedömningsbegreppet. I översikten problematiseras bedömningsbegreppet inom skolans värld för att tydliggöra hur olika former av bedömning definieras och används inom svensk och anglosaxisk forskning. Undersökningen omfattar 48 källor, varav 27 svenska. Dessa har analyserats genom en studie av definitioner, argument, formuleringar, författarnas perspektiv och eventuella personliga ställningstaganden, samt om de är att betrakta som problematiserande eller enbart konstaterande.   Resultatet visar att det inom den anglosaxiska forskningen, som dominerar den internationella forskningen kring bedömning, finns en betydligt högre grad av problematisering och diskussion kring bedömningsbegrepp än inom svensk forskning. Inom svensk forskning är det istället lätt att tro att det råder konsensus i hur man tolkar och förstår bedömningsbegrepp. Denna villfarelse skapas av en brist på definitioner och en avsaknad av diskussioner kring begrepp. Istället problematiseras summativ bedömning i form av betyg utifrån frågan om likvärdighet, en diskussion som saknas i anglosaxisk forskning.   Vid en jämförelse av svensk och anglosaxisk forskning kring bedömning framträder en tydlig skillnad i fokus, även om svensk forskning börjar närma sig ett anglosaxiskt perspektiv. Detta genom att inta ett övergripande perspektiv på bedömning istället för att se formativ och summativ bedömning som separata företeelser. Att tala övergripande i termer av kunskapsbedömning innebär dock inte att svårigheterna för bedömning att uppfylla kraven för att tillskrivas såväl formativ som summativ karaktär försvinner Detta är något som den anglosaxiska forskningen tydligt vittnar om.

Warfarin has well-proven benefit (stroke prevention) but an associated increase in harm (major bleeding) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Current clinical prediction rules (CPRs) are limited in that stroke CPRs predict only the probabilities of “stroke” and “no stroke” and bleeding CPRs predict only “bleed” and “no bleed” despite the fact that outcomes actually include combinations of these four groups. The study objective was to evaluate methods to create a CPR that calculates individual patient probabilities of warfarin’s four combined benefit/harm outcome groups: i) no stroke/no bleed; ii) no stroke/bleed; iii) stroke/no bleed; iv) stroke/bleed. Methods: Patient-level data were analyzed from a randomized controlled trial database (n=9,155) and an observational anticoagulant clinic database (n=5,475) from start of trial or time of AF diagnosis respectively (baseline), until end of follow-up. Patients were stratified into the four groups based on their outcomes during follow-up. Due to high mortality in both datasets, death was included as an outcome. Decision tree modeling and polytomous logistic regression (PLR) were conducted to identify baseline patient factors predicting each outcome group. Results: Based on a literature review of recent high quality RCTs, benefit and harm are reported separately and not at a more individualized level than subgroup analysis. In this individualized combined benefit/harm analysis, both PLR and decision tree modeling identified predictors of no stroke/no bleed, no stroke/bleed, stroke/no bleed and death without a prior stroke or bleed. PLR results predicted probabilities of combined benefit/harm outcomes for every patient but required detailed computation. However, results could potentially be converted into automated form for ease of use. Decision trees provided a visual algorithm approach to risk assessment but did not i) predict the probability of warfarin’s combined benefit/harm outcomes based on all predictors simultaneously, ii) predict the probability of these outcomes for every patient or iii) provide statistical parameters of predictive value (odds ratios). Conclusions: The PLR technique could be used to predict patient probabilities of combined benefit/harm outcomes with warfarin. The study results require validation, preferably prospectively, in other cohorts. If validated, this approach should be tested to determine if it aids patient decision-making.

Nutrition monitoring is important for determining nutrient intakes of a population but trend evaluation requires greater than two points. This thesis provides national mean nutrient intake estimates of Canadians aged 18 to 74 based on published 1990s provincial nutrition surveys that fall between the Nutrition Canada Survey (1970/72) and Canadian Community Health Survey (2004). The focus of this thesis was on four key nutrients (calcium, iron, folate, and vitamin C) reported by childbearing age women. Objectives included examining data for temporal or geographic patterns; reviewing for similarities to 1970/72; and assessing intake adequacy using Dietary Reference Intakes (DRIs). <p>Estimates were derived from 24-hour recall data reported by 16,915 adults of nine provinces, excluding Manitoba. Provincial group mean nutrient intakes were population-weighted using the Canadian census appropriate to the data collection years and totaled in proportion to provincial population size. The eight adult age and gender groups were then called the Province-derived Nutrition Survey (PNS). A temporal folate trend was noted as 1998 folate fortification doubled intake for the female population. In terms of geography, calcium intake appeared higher in British Columbia compared to Newfoundland. Nutrient intake declined with age except for some micronutrients associated with fruit/vegetables. Nutrient density indicated that the quality of womens diets improved with age. Nutrients which appeared inadequate for childbearing age women included fibre, potassium, magnesium, folate, iron, and calcium. Micronutrients that were below AI or RDA values suggest plant-based food intake was inadequate. Nutrient density showed that diet quality had improved since Nutrition Canada however, increased efforts are required to improve dietary intake further. <p>This thesis provides Canadas most recent comprehensive national nutrient intakes and a point with which to observe change. Intake in the 1990s compared to the previous Nutrition Canada Survey (NCS) showed that many nutrients had increased but education efforts did not appear to have resulted in optimum intake. Fortification and food consumption habits influenced which foods were the primary micronutrient sources, e.g., fortification with folic acid. While calcium and folate intake was higher in the 1990s compared to the NCS, these increases did not bring young women to their desired intake. When the 2004 Canadian Community Health Survey cycle 2.2 (nutrition) is published, it could be compared to the PNS to confirm whether these patterns are trends.

Uncertainty can be either an opportunity or a risk. Every construction project begins with the expectation of project performance. To meet the expectation, construction projects need to be managed through sound risk assessment and management beginning with the front-end of the project life cycle to check the feasibility of a project. The Construction Industry Institute’s (CII) International Project Risk Assessment (IPRA) tool has been developed, successfully used for a variety of heavy industry sector projects, and recently elevated to Best Practice status. However, its current format is inadequate to address the unique challenges of constructing the next generation of nuclear power plants (NPP). To understand and determine the risks associated with NPP projects, the goal of this thesis is to develop tailored risk framework for NPP projects that leverages and modifies the existing IPRA process. The IPRA has 82 elements to assess the risks associated with international construction projects. The modified IPRA adds five major issues (elements) to consider the unique risk factors of typical NPP projects based upon a review of the literature and an evaluation of the performance of previous nuclear-related facilities. The modified IPRA considers the sequence of NPP design that ultimately impacts the risks associated with plant safety and operations. Historically, financial risks have been a major chronic problem with the construction of NPPs. This research suggests that unstable regulations and the lack of design controls and oversight are significant risk issues. This thesis includes a consistency test to initially validate whether the asserted risks exist in actual conditions. Also, an overall risk assessment is performed based on the proposed risk framework for NPP and the list of assessed risk is proposed through a possible scenario. After the assessment, possible mitigation strategies are also provided against the major risks as a part of this thesis. This study reports on the preliminary findings for developing a new risk framework for constructing nuclear power plants. Future research is needed for advanced verification of the proposed elements. Follow-on efforts should include verification and validation of the proposed framework by industry experts and methods to quantify and evaluate the performance and risks associated with the multitude of previous NPP projects.