A model of a fishery with an uncertain fish stock is proposed to compare alternative management systems with individual transferable quotas (ITQs). Assumptions of the model include: (1) the fish stock fluctuates randomly year by year; (2) in-season stock depletion is small; (3) the total allowable catch (TAC) set by the quota authorities has a definite relation with the fish stock level; (4) the true value of the stock level is revealed only at the middle of each season, when the authorities revise the TAC; (5) fishers form rational expectations on future quota prices. The principal results are: (a) If fishers are risk-neutral, the share quota (SQ) system and the quantity quota (QQ) system generate the same amount of fishery rent, although the division of the rent between fishers and the authorities under one system is different from the other. If the TAC is proportional to the stock level, the more price-inelastic the demand for fish is, the more likely it is that fishers are better off under the QQ system at the expense of the authorities. (b) A quota tax and a harvest tax that collect the same amount of revenue for the authorities result in the same division of the fishery rent among heterogeneous fishers. The quota tax and the profit tax differ in this respect. Which fishers will prefer a quota tax over a profit tax will depend on fishers' shares of the initial quota endowment and in total inframarginal profits afterward. (c) If fishers are risk-averse, the SQ system and the QQ system are not equivalent in their allocative efficiency. An example shows that the SQ system is potentially better than the QQ system when fishers prefer the latter and the authorities prefer the former. This conclusion has to be modified if risk-neutral traders participate in the quota market

In British Columbia harvested forests are manually replanted by seasonal workers. Fertilizers contained in perforated paper sachets are often planted with seedlings. There have been anecdotal reports of skin and respiratory illness associated with fertilizer exposure and due to potential metal content in fertilizer source material they may contain metals as contaminants. Workers may also be exposed to pesticide residues on seedlings. This study aimed to characterize fertilizer, metal and pesticide exposure among a sample of B.C. tree planters, and to examine worker respiratory and dermal health. Between May 2006 and April 2007 223 tree planters were interviewed about their respiratory and dermal health, and the exposures of 54 tree planters at five geographically-disperse worksites were monitored. Four worksites were using fertilizer and one was not. The health questionnaire was a modification of the American Thoracic Society standardized questionnaire with questions on dermal health taken from a previous UBC study. Workers were grouped in exposure categories and symptoms analysed using logistic regression. Metals were measured by ICP/MS on post shift hand wipes, full shift air sample filters, in whole blood, bulk soil, seedling root balls, and fertilizer samples. Pesticides were measured on post shift hand wipes and on bulk seedling samples. Using nursery pesticide application records, analyses focused on known pesticides applied to the seedlings at the study sites. Carbamate pesticides were analyzed by HPLC/MS and other pesticides by GC/MS. No evidence was found that tree planters who work with fertilizer are at an elevated risk of exposure to arsenic, lead, cadmium, chromium and nickel relative to other tree planters. Pesticide residues were found on seedlings taken from coastal work sites in April 2007. At coastal worksites the fungicides chlorothalonil and iprodione were found on the skin of workers at low levels (range 0.37 – 106.3 ng.cm² and 0.48 – 15.9 ng/cm² respectively). Work with fertilizer was linked with an increased risk of cough, phlegm, nasal symptoms, nose bleed, and skin irritation. Hygiene conditions at tree planting work sites are very poor. Although measured exposures were low, hygiene conditions should improve to reduce the risk of health symptoms among tree planters.

Four studies were conducted with the aim of developing a measure of narcissism that, unlike previous measures, is not inherently pathological. In Study 1, the NPI—the closest approximation to such a measure—was administered to a large-scale sample. Two separate Principal Component Analyses (PCAs) failed to replicate its reported structure, and revealed further psychometric problems. Use of an alternative item format (Likert ratings) was shown to yield much higher reliabilities than the original forced-choice format. Using the Likert item-format, the Profile of Narcissistic Dispositions (POND) was developed in Study 2. The items were based on a comprehensive analysis of the literature on "normal" narcissism. Five reliable subscales emerged from an oblique factor analysis. All five loaded substantially on the first unrotated principal component. The relationship of the POND to established self-report measures was also explored. In Study 3, the POND's structure was replicated and empirical relations were expanded: In particular, the POND showed negative correlations with various self-reports of psychopathology. In Study 4, the POND was shown to predict peer ratings of narcissism. Further peer-ratings elaborated the character of normal narcissism, that is, an interpersonal style that is marked by a dominant and secure but disagreeable social presence.

This investigation examined the practice of relying on field test item calibrations in advance of the operational administration of a large scale assessment for purposes of equating and scaling. Often termed “pre-equating,” the effectiveness of this method is explored for a statewide, high-stakes assessment in grades three, five, and seven for the content areas of language arts, mathematics, and social studies. Pre-equated scaling was based on item calibrations using the Rasch model from an off-grade field test event in which students tested were one grade higher than the target population. These calibrations were compared to those obtained from post-equating, which used the full statewide population of examinees. Item difficulty estimates and Test Characteristic Curves (TCC) were compared for each approach and found to be similar. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the theta estimates for each approach ranged from .02 to .12. Moreover, classification accuracy for the pre-equated approach was generally high compared to results from post-equating. Only 3 of the 9 tests examined showed differences in the percent of students classified as passing; errors ranged from 1.7 percent to 3 percent. Measurement equivalence between the field test and operational assessment was also explored using the Differential Functioning of Items and Tests (DFIT) framework. Overall, about 20 to 40 percent of the items on each assessment exhibited statistically significant Differential Item Functioning (DIF). Differential Test Functioning (DTF) was significant for fully 7 tests. There was a positive relationship between the magnitude of DTF and degree of incongruence between pre-equating and post-equating. Item calibrations, score consistency, and measurement equivalence were also explored for a test calibrated with the one, two, and three parameter logistic model, using the TCC equating method. Measurement equivalence and score table incongruence was found to be slightly more pronounced with this approach. It was hypothesized that differences between the field test and operational tests resulted from 1) recency of instruction 2) cognitive growth and 3) motivation factors. Additional research related to these factors is suggested.

Commercial cultivation of switchgrass in Ontario is limited mainly due to inadequate market opportunities. However, recent developments in bioproducts identify switchgrass as a promising biomass crop for bioenergy and biomaterials applications. At present assessment of environmental impact of growing switchgrass in Ontario is lacking. Therefore, this study was conducted to evaluate the energy use and environmental impacts of switchgrass biomass production in Ontario through life cycle assessment. Cradle to farm gate life cycle assessment was conducted following the ISO 14040/14044 guidelines. Life cycle inventory data were collected from farmers, experts and available literature. Life cycle impact assessment was conducted for energy use and environmental impact using the SimaPro software. Life cycle processes related to fertilization, harvesting and soil N emission were identified as major hot spots for energy and environmental impacts. Improving efficiency of energy, inputs and biomass yield will reduce the environmental burden associated with growing switchgrass in Ontario. / OMAFRA- UofG Highly Qualified schlorship programme and OMAFRA- UofG Partnership bioeconomy industrial uses reaserch theme project funding.

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Current therapeutic recreation research does not articulate how Certified Therapeutic Recreation Specialists (CTRS) complete the assessment process with older adults. A review of published research demonstrates various uses of theories, methodologies, unclear descriptions of populations of studies, and unknown competencies of researchers. The purpose of this study was to explore what current assessment practice looks like for CTRS’s that work with an older adult population. The study was guided by the principle of participatory action research and was completed with four participants using a semi-structured focus group. The participants’ experiences revealed complexities in practice that were interwoven with each other. Time, challenges in practice, building capacity with clients and other TR practitioners along with evidence based practice were key issues. Recommendations as a result of this study include further development of diagnostic protocols and practice-based evidence to inform clinical decision making.

Uncertainty has a large effect on projects in the oil and gas industry, because most aspects of project evaluation rely on estimates. Industry routinely underestimates uncertainty, often significantly. The tendency to underestimate uncertainty is nearly universal. The cost associated with underestimating uncertainty, or overconfidence, can be substantial. Studies have shown that moderate overconfidence and optimism can result in expected portfolio disappointment of more than 30%. It has been shown that uncertainty can be assessed more reliably through look-backs and calibration, i.e., comparing actual results to probabilistic predictions over time. While many recognize the importance of look-backs, calibration is seldom practiced in industry. I believe a primary reason for this is lack of systematic processes and software for calibration. The primary development of my research is a database application that provides a way to track probabilistic estimates and their reliability over time. The Brier score and its components, mainly calibration, are used for evaluating reliability. The system is general in the types of estimates and forecasts that it can monitor, including production, reserves, time, costs, and even quarterly earnings. Forecasts may be assessed visually, using calibration charts, and quantitatively, using the Brier score. The calibration information can be used to modify probabilistic estimation and forecasting processes as needed to be more reliable. Historical data may be used to externally adjust future forecasts so they are better calibrated. Three experiments with historical data sets of predicted vs. actual quantities, e.g., drilling costs and reserves, are presented and demonstrate that external adjustment of probabilistic forecasts improve future estimates. Consistent application of this approach and database application over time should improve probabilistic forecasts, resulting in improved company and industry performance.

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