The Earth’s atmosphere constitutes a complex system subject to a large number of forcings of both natural and anthropogenic origin; these influence its evolution on a range of timescales. This thesis makes use of the UMUKCA global chemistry-climate model to explore several aspects relating to the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing and future stratospheric ozone recovery. Firstly, following recent improvements in the model, the atmospheric response to the solar cycle forcing simulated in UMUKCA is discussed. It is shown that while some features show a broad resemblance to observations/reanalysis, there are clear differences with regard to other features; the latter could result from model deficiencies and/or uncertainties in the observed response. The role of analysis method and of interannual variability is also addressed. Secondly, the solar cycle response is separated into the individual contributions from direct radiative heating and from ozone production using a set of sensitivity experiments. It is shown that while the tropical yearly mean responses to the two components are generally linearly additive, this is not necessarily the case in the high latitudes. It is suggested that solar-induced ozone changes could be important for modulating the Southern Hemisphere dynamical response. Thirdly, the role of the representation of the solar ozone response is studied. It is shown that the choice of the solar ozone response prescribed in the radiation scheme in non-interactive ozone experiments has a substantial impact on the simulated temperature response to the solar cycle forcing. The Northern Hemisphere dynamical responses are found to be generally similar within the uncertainty. A comparison with an interactive ozone case is also discussed. Lastly, future ozone recovery is investigated using a seven-member ensemble of 1960- 2099/1980-2080 integrations. The long-term evolution of ozone in different regions is found to be generally consistent with previous modelling studies. The long-term trends and variability in springtime Arctic ozone and its chemical, radiative and dynamical drivers are assessed. It is shown that Arctic ozone increases in the future, consistent with future reduction in stratospheric chlorine, stratospheric cooling and strengthening large-scale circulation. Yet, the large interannual variability is found to continue and to facilitate episodic ozone reductions, with halogen chemistry becoming a smaller but non-negligible driver of future springtime Arctic ozone variability for many decades.

On December 30th 2000, the Cassini-Huygens spacecraft reached the perijove milestone in its continuing journey to the Saturnian system. During an extended six-month encounter, the Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) returned spectra of the Jovian atmosphere, rings and satellites from 10 to 1400 cm^-1 (1000 to 7 µm) at a programmable spectral resolution of 0.5 to 15 cm^-1. The improved spectral resolution of CIRS over previous infrared instrument-missions to Jupiter, the extended spectral range and higher signal-to-noise performance provide significant advantages over previous data-sets. Both optimal-estimation retrieval and radiance-differencing are used to investigate the global variation of upper-tropospheric temperature, ammonia, phosphine and cloud opacity between ± 60˚ latitude. The analysis methods are shown to successfully reproduce Jovian conditions with results consistent with previous investigations. The composition results in particular are well characterised and suggest an important role played by mixing and transport within the upper-troposphere. Interpretation and validation of the retrieved results is conducted via the construction of a simple dynamic model incorporating transport, diffusion and (photo)chemistry.

Submitted by Jean Medeiros (jeanletras@uepb.edu.br) on 2018-06-15T14:03:10Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PDF - Luciana Rodrigues de Araújo.pdf: 65021055 bytes, checksum: ca14397fd5976fb51f30eb8b9769c237 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Secta BC (secta.csu.bc@uepb.edu.br) on 2018-06-18T18:12:06Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 PDF - Luciana Rodrigues de Araújo.pdf: 65021055 bytes, checksum: ca14397fd5976fb51f30eb8b9769c237 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-18T18:12:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PDF - Luciana Rodrigues de Araújo.pdf: 65021055 bytes, checksum: ca14397fd5976fb51f30eb8b9769c237 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-17 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Wind data obtained between 1999 and 2016 from measuments by meteor radar at Cachoeira Paulista (22.7°S, 45.0°W), Brazil, were used to investigate the behavior of the dynamics on upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere region, the interannual variability in the winds, in the diurnal tide and 2-day wave amplitudes and the possible causes. The results show that zonal wind is characterized by a semiannual variation below 90 km and annual above, while the meridional wind exhibits an annual cycle at all altitudes. Monthly winds did not show quasi-biennial variation (QBO), however the seasonal winds in the zonal direction observed during the summer and fall show QBO variations type in altitudes below 90 km. The results also suggest that the zonal and meridional winds are intensified during the years of solar maximum, especially in the summer and winter seasons. The monthly amplitudes of diurnal tide show an annual variation, in which the amplitudes are greater during the eastward phase of QBO at 30 hPa. The spectrum obtained from the deseasonalized amplitudes shows a 26 months peak in the meridional component, which may to be associated with stratospheric QBO phase. The modulation of the diurnal tide amplitude by QBO shows a quasi ten-year variation, and is stronger for the solar cycle maximum. The amplitude of the 2-day wave exhibit interannual variability, however, do not shows to be affected by the QBO phase during the summer season. The amplitudes of the 2-day show interannual variability, but, only in winter it is affected by the QBO phase. Good agreement between the variation of the amplitude of the 2-day wave for meridional wind and the solar radio flux was observed for most of the summers with a significant correlation, suggesting a possible wave modulation by the 11-year solar cycle. / Dados de ventos obtidos entre 1999 e 2016 a partir de medidas por radar meteórico em Cachoeira Paulista (22,7°S, 45,0°O), Brasil, foram utilizados para investigar o comportamento da dinâmica da região da alta mesosfera e baixa termosfera, a variabilidade interanual dos ventos, das amplitudes da maré diurna e da onda de 2 dias e as possíveis causas. Os resultados mostram que o vento zonal é caracterizado por uma variação semianual abaixo de 90 km e anual acima, enquanto o vento meridional exibe um ciclo anual em todas as alturas. Os ventos mensais não mostraram variação quase bienal (QBO), contudo os ventos sazonais na direção zonal observados durante o verão e o outono mostram variações tipo QBO nas alturas abaixo de 90 km. Os resultados sugerem ainda que os ventos zonal e meridional são intensificados durante os anos de máxima atividade solar, principalmente nas estações de verão e inverno. As amplitudes mensais da maré diurna exibem variação interanual, em que as amplitudes são maiores durante a fase para leste da QBO em 30 hPa. O espectro obtido a partir das amplitudes dessazonalizadas mostra um pico próximo de 26 meses na componente meridional, o qual pode estar associado à fase da QBO estratosférica. A modulação da amplitude da maré diurna pela QBO mostra uma variação quase decenal, e é mais forte durante o máximo do ciclo solar. As amplitudes da onda de 2 dias exibem variabilidade interanual para ambas as componentes, contudo, apenas no inverno mostra ser afetada pela fase da QBO. Boa concordância entre a variação da amplitude meridional da onda de 2 dias e o fluxo de rádio solar foi observada para a maioria dos verões com correlação significativa, sugerindo uma possível modulação da onda pelo ciclo solar de 11 anos.

This thesis examines the utility of mathematical complexity measures for the analysis of stratospheric dynamics. Through theoretical considerations and tests with artificial data sets, e.g., the iteration of the logistic map, suitable parameters are determined for the application of the statistical entropy measures sample entropy (SE) and Rényi entropy (RE) to methane (a long-lived stratospheric tracer) data from simulations of the SOCOL chemistry-climate model. The SE is shown to be useful for quantifying the variability of recurring patterns in a time series and is able to identify tropical patterns similar to those reported by previous studies of the ``tropical pipe'' region. However, the SE is found to be unsuitable for use in polar regions, due to the non-stationarity of the methane data at extra-tropical latitudes. It is concluded that the SE cannot be used to analyse climate complexity on a global scale. The focus is turned to the RE, which is a complexity measure of probability distribution functions (PDFs). Using the second order RE and a normalisation factor, zonal PDFs of ten consecutive days of methane data are created with a Bayesian optimal binning technique. From these, the RE is calculated for every day (moving 10-day window). The results indicate that the RE is a promising tool for identifying stratospheric mixing barriers. In Southern Hemisphere winter and early spring, RE produces patterns similar to those found in other studies of stratospheric mixing. High values of RE are found to be indicative of the strong fluctuations in tracer distributions associated with relatively unmixed air in general, and with gradients in the vicinity of mixing barriers, in particular. Lower values suggest more thoroughly mixed air masses. The analysis is extended to eleven years of model data. Realistic inter-annual variability of some of the RE structures is observed, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. By calculating a climatological mean of the RE for this period, additional mixing patterns are identified in the Northern Hemisphere. The validity of the RE analysis and its interpretation is underlined by showing that qualitatively similar patterns can be seen when using observational satellite data of a different tracer. Compared to previous techniques, the RE has the advantage that it requires significantly less computational effort, as it can be used to derive dynamical information from model or measurement tracer data without relying on any additional input such as wind fields. The results presented in this thesis strongly suggest that the RE is a useful new metric for analysing stratospheric mixing and its variability from climate model data. Furthermore, it is shown that the RE measure is very robust with respect to data gaps, which makes it ideal for application to observations. Hence, using the RE for comparing observations of tracer distributions with those from model simulations potentially presents a novel approach for analysing mixing in the stratosphere.

Plus d’un millier d’exoplanètes ont été découvertes depuis une dizaine d’années. Plus incroyable encore, nous pouvons maintenant caractériser les atmosphères de ces mondes lointains. Des spectres de Jupiter-chauds tels que HD 189733b et HD 209458b et de planètes similaires à Neptune telles que GJ1214b sont déjà disponibles et ceux de planètes plus petites le seront bientôt. La plupart des observations caractérisent l’état moyen de l’atmosphère. Pour les cas les plus favorables, l’observation des courbes de phase et la technique de cartographie par éclipse secondaire permettent d’obtenir une résolution en longitude et en latitude. Les planètes les plus proches de leurs étoiles sont aussi les plus faciles à observer. Ces mondes chauds sont radicalement différents des exemples que nous avons dans le système solaire. Modéliser correctement leurs atmosphères est un défi à relever pour comprendre les observations présentes et à venir. Durant cette thèse, j’ai développé des modèles de différente complexité pour comprendre les interactions entre la structure thermique, la composition, la circulation atmosphérique et l’évolution à long terme des exoplanètes irradiées. La forte luminosité de leur étoile hôte détermine le climat de ces planètes. Elle engendre une circulation atmosphérique qui maintient l’atmosphère dans un état de déséquilibre thermique et chimique, affectant son évolution. Avec les futurs instruments de nombreuses autres planètes vont être découvertes et caractérisées. Nos modèles seront testés sur une large diversité de planètes, ouvrant les portes de la climatologie aux exoplanètes. / More than a thousand exoplanets have been discovered over the last decade. Perhaps more excitingly, probing their atmospheres has become possible. We now have spectra of hot Jupiters like HD 189733b and HD 209458b, of Neptune-like planets like GJ1214b and even smaller planets are within reach. Most exoplanet atmospheric observations are averaged spatially, often over a hemi- sphere (during secondary eclipse) or over the limb of the planet (during transit). For favorable targets, longitudinal and latitudinal resolution can also be obtained with phase curve and secondary eclipse mapping techniques respectively. The closer the planet orbits to its star, the easier it is to observe. These hot planets strongly differ from the examples we have in our solar-system. Proper models of their atmospheres are challenging yet necessary to understand current and future observations. In this thesis, I use a hierarchy of atmospheric models to understand the interactions between the thermal structure, the composition, the atmospheric circulation and the long-term evolution of irradiated planets. In these planets, the large stellar irradiation dominates the energy budget of the atmosphere. It powers a strong atmospheric circulation that transports heat and material around the planet, driving the atmosphere out of thermal and chemical equilibrium and affecting its long-term evolution. Future instruments (Gaia, SPIRou, CHEOPS, TESS, PLATO etc) will discover many more planets that the next generation of telescopes (GMT, TMT, E-ELT or JWST) will characterize with an unprecedented accuracy. Models will be tested on a large sample of planets, extending the study of climates to exoplanets.

Tempestades severas ocorrem na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP) principalmente nos meses quentes e úmidos do ano. Nesta tese, os mecanismos de disparo da convecção profunda são estudados por meio de análises observacionais e simulações numéricas com o Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS). A metodologia proposta compreende o uso da parametrização microfísica fria na simulação dos processos físicos que levam à formação de nuvens cumulonimbus, sem o uso da parametrização de cúmulos nas grades de altíssima resolução espacial. Nos eventos estudados, as primeiras células de precipitação observadas e simuladas surgiram em razão da interação entre o escoamento atmosférico na camada limite planetária e a topografia local. As células secundárias foram geralmente mais intensas, uma vez que elas surgiram após o aquecimento diabático adicional. O mecanismo de disparo das células secundárias foi a corrente ascendente induzida pela propagação horizontal das frentes de rajada em baixos níveis da atmosfera das correntes descendentes das células primárias. As frentes de rajada tiveram velocidade de propagação horizontal típica de 6 m s-1. No evento de 02 de fevereiro de 2004, células convectivas profundas foram simuladas com alto grau de realismo no domínio da grade de 3 km de resolução espacial. Observou-se que, neste caso, a frente de brisa marítima pôde atuar como guia de ondas para a colisão entre duas frentes de rajada. A propagação da frente de brisa marítima para o interior do continente ocorreu em conjunção a um forte gradiente de vapor dágua nos níveis mais baixos da troposfera. As células convectivas profundas secundárias surgiram e se desenvolveram exatamente nesta zona de interface, a qual representa o contraste entre as diferentes massas de ar marítima e continental. No evento de 04 de fevereiro de 2004, na grade de 1 km de resolução, a análise objetiva com as medidas das estações de superfície na RMSP correspondente às 1800 UTC indicou a presença de uma ilha de calor urbana com até 4 oC de aquecimento diferencial entre a Capital e vizinhanças. O principal efeito da assimilação destas medidas foi a redução do NCL em até 80 hPa, o que favoreceu o disparo da convecção naquela área. / Severe thunderstorms occur in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) mainly in the warm and wet months of the year. In this work, the triggering mechanisms of deep convection are studied through observed data and numerical simulations with the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS). The proposed methodology focuses in the use of microphysics parameterization of cold clouds to simulate physical process linked to the life cycle of thunderstorms. The cumulus cloud parameterization isnt used in high resolution numerical grids. In the real case studies, both observed and simulated, early convective cells developed as a consequence of the interaction between the planetary boundary layer atmospheric flow and the local topography. The secondary convective cells were generally strongest, once they developed after additional surface diabatic heating. The triggering mechanism of these secondary cells was the updraft induced by gust fronts generated by downdrafts of primary cells. The gust fronts had a typical horizontal propagation velocity of 6 m s-1. In the February 02 2004 event, deep convective cells were simulated with high degree of realism with a 3 km resolution grid. It was observed that, in this case, the sea-breeze front could act as a wave guide to the collision between two different gust fronts. In addition, the sea breeze front propagated to the continental area together with a strong low level water vapor gradient. The secondary deep convective cells arose and developed exactly on this interface zone, which represents the contrast between the oceanic and continental air masses. The interface zone was marked by a water vapor mixing rate of 14 g kg-1. In the February 04 2004 event, the objective analysis, made with some MASP´s surface stations measurements at 1800 UTC in the 1 km resolution grid, indicates the presence of an urban heat island with up to 4 oC of differential heating between São Paulo city and its neighboring area. The main effect in assimilating these surface measurements was the lowering of the lift condensation level up to 80 hPa, which favored the triggering of convection in that area.

<p>This PhD thesis deals with phenomena which are closely related to the unique thermal structure of the polar summer mesosphere, namely Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes (PMSE). PMSE are strong radar echoes commonly observed by VHF MST radars from thin layers in the 80-90 km altitude interval at high latitudes during summer. They follow a seasonal pattern of abrupt appearance in late May and a gradual disappearance in mid-August. This period corresponds roughly to the time between the completion of the summer time cooling of the polar mesopause to the time of reversal of the mesospheric circulation to autumn condition. In this connection, PMSE are associated with the extremely low temperatures, i.e. below 140 K, which are unique to the polar summer mesopause. Traditional theories of radar (partial) reflection and scattering have been unable to explain the PMSE and the exact mechanism for their occurrence remains unclear despite the steadily increasing interest in them over the past 20 years. Currently accepted theories regarding the mechanism giving rise to PMSE agree that one of the conditions needed for enhanced radar echoes is the presence of low-mobility charge carries such as large cluster ions and ice aerosols which capture the ambient electrons. It has been established that the PMSE are in some way associated with noctilucent clouds (NLC), layers of ice crystals, which constitute the highest observed clouds in the earth’s atmosphere. PMSE occurrence and dynamics are also found to be closely connected with the planetary and gravity waves.</p><p>Observations of PMSE presented in this thesis have been carried out by the Esrange MST radar (ESRAD) located at Esrange (67°56’N, 21°04’E) just outside Kiruna in northernmost Sweden. The radar operates at 52 MHz with 72 kW peak power and a maximum duty cycle of 5%. The antenna consists of 12x12 array of 5-element Yagis with a 0.7l spacing. During the PMSE measurements the radar used a 16-bit complementary code having a baud length of 1mS. This corresponds to height resolution of 150 m. The sampling frequency was set at 1450 Hz. The covered height range was 80-90 km. The presence of PMSE was determined on the basis of the radar SNR (signal-to-noise ratio). The PMSE measurements have been made during May-August each year since 1997.</p><p>PMSE seasonal and diurnal occurrence rates as well as dynamics have been studied in connection with tidal winds, planetary waves, temperature and water vapor content in the mesosphere (Papers I, IV and VI). Simultaneous and common-volume observations of PMSE and noctilucent clouds have been performed by radar, lidar and CCD camera (Paper V). Correlation between variations in PMSE and variations in extra ionization added by precipitating energetic electrons or high-energy particles from the Sun has been examined (Papers II and III). Possible influence of transport effects due to the electric field on PMSE appearance has been studied during a solar proton event (Paper III).</p>

Unter atmosphärischen Zirkulationsregimen versteht man bevorzugte quasi-stationäre Zustände der atmosphärischen Zirkulation auf der planetaren Skala, die für eine bis mehrere Wochen persistieren können. Klimaänderungen, ob natürlich entstanden oder anthropogen verursacht, äußern sich in erster Linie durch Änderungen der Auftrittswahrscheinlichkeiten der natürlichen Regime. <br><br> In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurden dynamische Mechanismen des Regimeverhaltens und der dekadischen Klimavariabilität der Atmosphäre bei Abwesenheit zeitlich veränderlicher externer Einflussfaktoren untersucht. Das Hauptwerkzeug dafür war ein quasi-geostrophisches Dreischichtenmodell der winterlichen atmosphärischen Zirkulation auf der Nordhemisphäre, das eine spektrale T21-Auflösung, einen orographischen und einen zeitlich konstanten thermischen Antrieb mit nicht-zonalen Anteilen besitzt. Ein solches Modell vermag großskalige atmosphärische Strömungsvorgänge außerhalb der Tropen mit einiger Genauigkeit zu simulieren. Nicht berücksichtigt werden Feuchteprozesse, die Wechselwirkung der Atmosphäre mit anderen Teilen des Klimasystems sowie anthropogene Einflüsse. <br><br> Für das Dreischichtenmodell wurde ein automatisiertes, iteratives Verfahren zur Anpassung des thermischen Modellantriebs neu entwickelt. Jede Iteration des Verfahrens besteht aus einer Testintegration des Modells, ihrer Auswertung, dem Vergleich der Ergebnisse mit den NCEP-NCAR-Reanalysedaten aus den Wintermonaten Dezember, Januar und Februar sowie einer auf diesem Vergleich basierenden Antriebskorrektur. Nach Konvergenz des Verfahrens stimmt das Modell sowohl bezüglich des zonal gemittelten Klimazustandes als auch bezüglich der zeitgemittelten nicht-zonalen außertropischen diabatischen Erwärmung nahezu perfekt mit den wintergemittelten Reanalysedaten überein. <br><br> In einer 1000-jährigen Simulation wurden die beobachtete mittlere Zirkulation im Winter sowie ihre Variabilität realitätsnah reproduziert, insbesondere die Arktische Oszillation (AO) und ihre vertikale Ausdehnung. Der AO-Index des Modells weist deutliche dekadische Schwankungen auf, die allein durch die interne Modelldynamik bedingt sind. Darüber hinaus zeigt das Modell ein Regimeverhalten, das gut mit den Beobachtungsdaten übereintimmt. Es besitzt ein Regime, das in etwa der negativen Phase der Nordatlantischen Oszillation (NAO) entspricht und eines, das der positiven Phase der AO ähnelt. <br><br> Eine weit verbreitete Hypothese ist die näherungsweise Übereinstimmung zwischen Regimen und stationären Lösungen der Bewegungsgleichungen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde diese Hypothese für das Dreischichtenmodell überprüft, mit negativem Resultat. Es wurden mittels eines Funktionalminimierungsverfahrens sechs verschiedene stationäre Zustände gefunden. Diese sind allesamt durch eine äußerst unrealistische Zirkulation gekennzeichnet und sind daher weit vom Modellattraktor entfernt. Fünf der sechs Zustände zeichnen sich durch einen extrem starken subtropischen Jet in der mittleren und obereren Modellschicht aus. <br><br> Da die Ursache des Regimeverhaltens des Dreischichtenmodells nach wie vor unklar war, wurde auf ein einfacheres Modell, nämlich ein barotropes Modell mit T21-Auflösung zurückgegriffen. Für die Anpassung des Oberflächenantriebs wurde eine modifizierte Form der iterativen Prozedur verwendet. Die zeitgemittelte Zirkulation des barotropen Modells stimmt sehr gut mit der zeitlich und vertikal gemittelten Zirkulation des Dreischichtenmodells überein. Das dominierende räumliche Muster der Variabilität besitzt eine AO-ähnliche Struktur. Zudem besitzt das barotrope Modell zwei Regime, die näherungsweise der positiven und negativen Phase der AO entsprechen und somit auch den Regimen des Dreischichtenmodells ähneln. Im Verlauf der Justierung des Oberflächenantriebs konnte beobachtet werden, dass die zwei Regime des barotropen Modells durch die Vereinigung zweier koexistierender Attraktoren entstanden. Der wahrscheinliche Mechanismus der Attraktorvereinigung ist eine Randkrise eines der beiden Attraktoren, gefolgt von einer explosiven Bifurkation des anderen Attraktors. <br><br> Es wird die Hypothese aufgestellt, dass der beim barotropen Modell vorgefundene Mechanismus der Regimeentstehung für atmosphärische Zirkulationsmodelle mit realitätsnahem Regimeverhalten Allgemeingültigkeit besitzt. Gestützt wird die Hypothese durch vier Experimente mit dem Dreischichtenmodell, bei denen jeweils der Parameter der Bodenreibung verringert und die Antriebsanpassung wiederholt wurde. Bei diesen Experimenten erhöhte sich die Persistenz und die Separiertheit der Regime bei abnehmender Reibung drastisch und damit auch der Anteil dekadischer Zeitskalen an der Variabilität. Die Zunahme der Persistenz der Regime ist charakteristisch für die Annäherung an eine inverse innere Krise, deren Existenz aber nicht nachgewiesen werden konnte. / Preferred quasi-stationary states of the planetary-scale atmospheric circulation, which may persist for one or several weeks, are referred to as atmospheric circulation regimes. Climate variations, either natural or anthropogenic, manifest themselves mainly in changes of the frequencies of occurrence of the natural regimes. <br><br> In the presented work, dynamical mechanisms of regime behavior and decadal climate variability of the atmosphere in absence of time-varying external forcing factors have been examined using a quasi-geostrophic three-level model of the wintertime atmospheric circulation over the northern hemisphere. This model has spectral T21 resolution, an orographic and a time-constant thermal forcing including non-zonal components. Such kind of a model is able to simulate large-scale extratropical atmospheric processes with reasonable accuracy. However, moisture processes, the interaction between the atmosphere and other parts of the climate system, and anthropogenic influences are not accounted for. <br><br> For the three-level model, a novel, automated, iterative procedure for the tuning of the thermal forcing has been developed. Every iteration of the procedure consists of a model test run, its evaluation, the comparison of the results with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data for the winter months December, January, and February, and a forcing correction based on this comparison. After convergence of the procedure, the model matches the reanalysis data almost perfectly, as far as it concerns the zonal mean climate state and the time-mean non-zonal extratropical diabatic heating. <br><br> In a 1000-year simulation, the observed time-mean circulation in winter as well as its variability have been reproduced with considerable realism, in particular the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its deep vertical extent. The modeled AO index exhibits pronounced decadal variations, exclusively caused by internal model dynamics. Furthermore, the model's regime behavior is in good agreement with observations. It possesses one regime resembling the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and another resembling the positive phase of the AO. <br><br> A well-known hypothesis is the approximate correspondence between regimes and stationary solutions of the equations of motion. In the presented work, this hypothesis has been checked for the three-level model, but with negative result. Using a functional minimization method, six steady states have been found. All of them correspond to an extremely unrealistic circulation, and thus they are far away from the model's attractor. Five of the six steady states are characterized by a strongly exaggerated subtropical jet in the middle and upper model level. <br><br> As the origin of regime behavior was still unclear, a simpler model, namely a T21 barotropic model, has been reverted to. For the adaptation of the surface forcing, a modified version of the tuning procedure has been applied. The time-mean circulation of the barotropic model matches the temporally and vertically averaged circulation of the three-level model very well. The dominant spatial pattern of variability has an AO-like structure. Furthermore, the barotropic model possesses two regimes which approximately correspond to the positive and negative AO phase and therefore resemble the regimes of the three-level model. During the tuning of the surface forcing it has been observed that the two regimes of the barotropic model have emerged from the unification of two coexisting attractors. The mechanism responsible for this attractor merging is probably a boundary crisis of one of these attractors, followed by an explosive bifurcation of the other attractor. <br><br> It is hypothesized that the mechanism of regime genesis found in the barotropic model is universally valid for atmospheric circulation models with realistic regime behavior. This hypothesis is supported by four experiments with the three-level model, where the surface friction parameter has been decreased and the tuning procedure has been repeated, respectively. In these experiments, the persistence and separation of the regimes increases dramatically with decreasing friction, and thereby the fraction of decadal-scale variability. The increase of regime persistence is characteristic of approaching an inverse interior crisis, the existence of which, however, could not be proven.

This PhD thesis deals with phenomena which are closely related to the unique thermal structure of the polar summer mesosphere, namely Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes (PMSE). PMSE are strong radar echoes commonly observed by VHF MST radars from thin layers in the 80-90 km altitude interval at high latitudes during summer. They follow a seasonal pattern of abrupt appearance in late May and a gradual disappearance in mid-August. This period corresponds roughly to the time between the completion of the summer time cooling of the polar mesopause to the time of reversal of the mesospheric circulation to autumn condition. In this connection, PMSE are associated with the extremely low temperatures, i.e. below 140 K, which are unique to the polar summer mesopause. Traditional theories of radar (partial) reflection and scattering have been unable to explain the PMSE and the exact mechanism for their occurrence remains unclear despite the steadily increasing interest in them over the past 20 years. Currently accepted theories regarding the mechanism giving rise to PMSE agree that one of the conditions needed for enhanced radar echoes is the presence of low-mobility charge carries such as large cluster ions and ice aerosols which capture the ambient electrons. It has been established that the PMSE are in some way associated with noctilucent clouds (NLC), layers of ice crystals, which constitute the highest observed clouds in the earth’s atmosphere. PMSE occurrence and dynamics are also found to be closely connected with the planetary and gravity waves. Observations of PMSE presented in this thesis have been carried out by the Esrange MST radar (ESRAD) located at Esrange (67°56’N, 21°04’E) just outside Kiruna in northernmost Sweden. The radar operates at 52 MHz with 72 kW peak power and a maximum duty cycle of 5%. The antenna consists of 12x12 array of 5-element Yagis with a 0.7l spacing. During the PMSE measurements the radar used a 16-bit complementary code having a baud length of 1mS. This corresponds to height resolution of 150 m. The sampling frequency was set at 1450 Hz. The covered height range was 80-90 km. The presence of PMSE was determined on the basis of the radar SNR (signal-to-noise ratio). The PMSE measurements have been made during May-August each year since 1997. PMSE seasonal and diurnal occurrence rates as well as dynamics have been studied in connection with tidal winds, planetary waves, temperature and water vapor content in the mesosphere (Papers I, IV and VI). Simultaneous and common-volume observations of PMSE and noctilucent clouds have been performed by radar, lidar and CCD camera (Paper V). Correlation between variations in PMSE and variations in extra ionization added by precipitating energetic electrons or high-energy particles from the Sun has been examined (Papers II and III). Possible influence of transport effects due to the electric field on PMSE appearance has been studied during a solar proton event (Paper III).

This thesis examines the utility of mathematical complexity measures for the analysis of stratospheric dynamics. Through theoretical considerations and tests with artificial data sets, e.g., the iteration of the logistic map, suitable parameters are determined for the application of the statistical entropy measures sample entropy (SE) and Rényi entropy (RE) to methane (a long-lived stratospheric tracer) data from simulations of the SOCOL chemistry-climate model. The SE is shown to be useful for quantifying the variability of recurring patterns in a time series and is able to identify tropical patterns similar to those reported by previous studies of the ``tropical pipe'' region. However, the SE is found to be unsuitable for use in polar regions, due to the non-stationarity of the methane data at extra-tropical latitudes. It is concluded that the SE cannot be used to analyse climate complexity on a global scale. The focus is turned to the RE, which is a complexity measure of probability distribution functions (PDFs). Using the second order RE and a normalisation factor, zonal PDFs of ten consecutive days of methane data are created with a Bayesian optimal binning technique. From these, the RE is calculated for every day (moving 10-day window). The results indicate that the RE is a promising tool for identifying stratospheric mixing barriers. In Southern Hemisphere winter and early spring, RE produces patterns similar to those found in other studies of stratospheric mixing. High values of RE are found to be indicative of the strong fluctuations in tracer distributions associated with relatively unmixed air in general, and with gradients in the vicinity of mixing barriers, in particular. Lower values suggest more thoroughly mixed air masses. The analysis is extended to eleven years of model data. Realistic inter-annual variability of some of the RE structures is observed, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. By calculating a climatological mean of the RE for this period, additional mixing patterns are identified in the Northern Hemisphere. The validity of the RE analysis and its interpretation is underlined by showing that qualitatively similar patterns can be seen when using observational satellite data of a different tracer. Compared to previous techniques, the RE has the advantage that it requires significantly less computational effort, as it can be used to derive dynamical information from model or measurement tracer data without relying on any additional input such as wind fields. The results presented in this thesis strongly suggest that the RE is a useful new metric for analysing stratospheric mixing and its variability from climate model data. Furthermore, it is shown that the RE measure is very robust with respect to data gaps, which makes it ideal for application to observations. Hence, using the RE for comparing observations of tracer distributions with those from model simulations potentially presents a novel approach for analysing mixing in the stratosphere.