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<p dir="ltr">Rossby wave dynamics that affects tropical cyclone size and genesis</p>

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Severe ozone depletion in the polar lower stratosphere has been linked to significant changes in tropospheric circulation patterns in the both hemispheres. Observed Southern Hemisphere circulation changes are easily reproduced in climate models and may be achieved by either increasing ozone depleting substances in a chemistry-climate model(CCM) or by imposing observed ozone losses as a zonally-symmetric perturbation in a prescribed-ozone global circulation model (GCM). In the Northern Hemisphere however, only the CCM method produces a circulation response in agreement with analysis of observations, while the GCM method is unable to produce any significant tropospheric circulation changes from imposing observed zonal-mean Arctic ozone losses. Confidence in a mechanistic link between Arctic stratospheric ozone change and changes in tropospheric circulation is greatly increased if the change can be reproduced using a GCM in addition to being reproducible in a CCM. This thesis demonstrates that by allowing ozone to vary along longitude, and by imposing ozone depletion during a realistic timeframe, the GCM method can produce circulation changes compatible with both the CCM method and observations. An equivalent-latitude coordinate allows the prescribed ozone field, and imposed ozone losses, to follow the polar vortex as it is systematically disturbed or displaced off the pole throughout the winter, producing a realistic circulation response in the troposphere in contrast to when ozone and its imposed losses are zonally-symmetric. Timing the imposed ozone depletion with the breakup of the polar vortex reveals that the appearance of the circulation response is very sensitive to the relative timing of these events and to the pre-existing dynamical state of the polar vortex. These results demonstrate that prescribing ozone as a zonally symmetric climatology within a GCM, as has been recent practice in the literature, is only representative of the Southern Hemisphere and is inappropriate for accurately representing processes within the Arctic stratosphere. Moreover this work demonstrates that these dynamically-evolving zonal asymmetries in ozone, which are not present in zonally-symmetric ozone schemes, play a crucial role in allowing perturbations in the Arctic stratosphere to influence the troposphere and surface conditions.

The dynamics of the polar mesosphere and lower thermosphere ( MLT ) is investigated using MF radars at Davis ( 69 ° S, 78 ° E ), Syowa ( 69 ° S, 40 ° E ) and Rothera ( 68 ° S, 68 ° W ) in the Antarctic, and Poker Flat ( 65 ° N, 147 ° W ) and Andenes ( 69 ° N, 16 ° E ) in the Arctic. Mean winds and gravity waves are investigated on a climatological scale and also during sudden stratospheric warmings. Mean wind climatologies in the MLT show differences that are often hemispheric in nature. For example, summer peaks in westward and equatorward winds occur earlier ( closer to the solstice ) in the Antarctic than in the Arctic. The greater symmetry around the solstice of phenomena such as these indicates that radiative effects may play a greater role in controlling the state of the Antarctic MLT than in the Arctic, where dynamical effects might be more important. Gravity wave observations are consistent with this theory, suggesting more wave drag may occur in the Arctic MLT. The equatorward jet persists for about 2 weeks later in summer in the Arctic than in the Antarctic, as do satellite observations of polar mesospheric clouds ( PMCs ) ( a temperature dependent phenomenon ). It is proposed that the meridional winds can be used as a proxy for gravity wave driving and consequent adiabatic cooling in the MLT. VHF radar observations of polar mesospheric summer echoes ( PMSEs ) at Davis, and the satellite PMC observations, both occur at a similar time to the equatorward jet. Seasonal variations in gravity wave activity are generally a combination of annual ( with winter maxima and summer minima ) and semi - annual ( with maxima near the solstices and minima near the equinoxes ) components. The winter maxima and spring / summer minima both occur about 3 weeks later in the Antarctic than in the Arctic, with the difference in magnitude between these extrema being about 90 % larger in the Antarctic. The available MF radar data include six major sudden stratospheric warmings in the northern hemisphere, and the unprecedented southern event which occurred during 2002 splitting the Antarctic ozone hole apart. Three of the six northern events are relatively weak and could almost be classed as minor warmings, while the larger three are similar in strength and duration to the southern event. Gravity wave activity reduces dramatically at Davis during the southern event, but not at Syowa ( possibly due to differences in critical level filtering ). The influence of major warmings on mesospheric gravity wave strength and polarisation varies significantly between locations, and individual events. Zonal wind reversals associated with the large major warmings are all weaker and occur earlier in the mesosphere than in the stratosphere. Another hemispherically common response is zonal wave - 1 planetary wave signatures in the mesospheric meridional winds ( i.e., a flow over the pole ). The planetary wave signatures have 14 - day periodicity and are westward propagating leading up to the southern event. The zonal winds are weaker than average during the 2002 southern winter, and also during the transition to the summer circulation. This is not seen for the large northern major warmings. There appears to be both hemispheric similarities and differences in polar middle atmosphere dynamics during stratospheric warmings, and also on a climatological scale. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--School of Chemistry and Physics, 2005.

Cold air outbreaks (CAOs) occur when large scale atmospheric circulations allow for the incursion of polar air masses into middle and lower latitudes, influencing wintertime temperatures regionally. The January 2004 CAO is identified as a major CAO in the Deep South of the United States in terms of wind chill equivalent temperature or a temperature-only criterion. Surface air temperature, horizontal winds, specific humidity, and Ertel potential vorticity are analyzed for this event using several reanalysis products: National Aeronautic and Space Administration Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). We perform an intercomparison of the reanalysis products and parallel surface station observations during the synoptic evolution of the leading cold front associated with CAO onset. The key synoptic, mesoscale, and dynamical features associated with onset are studied to determine the relative accuracy of the respective reanalysis products in representing the key features. The comparative evaluation revealed pronounced temperature and moisture biases in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis products that limit its utility in portraying the synoptic features characteristic of CAO onset. Conversely, both MERRA and NARR accurately represent the detailed thermodynamic and moisture structural evolution associated with CAO onset indicating their utility in future observationally-based studies of CAO events. Ertel potential vorticity analyses indicate that the onset of the 2004 CAO is strongly linked to an incipient tropopause fold feature that developed over the Great Lakes region.

The dynamics of the polar mesosphere and lower thermosphere ( MLT ) is investigated using MF radars at Davis ( 69 ° S, 78 ° E ), Syowa ( 69 ° S, 40 ° E ) and Rothera ( 68 ° S, 68 ° W ) in the Antarctic, and Poker Flat ( 65 ° N, 147 ° W ) and Andenes ( 69 ° N, 16 ° E ) in the Arctic. Mean winds and gravity waves are investigated on a climatological scale and also during sudden stratospheric warmings. Mean wind climatologies in the MLT show differences that are often hemispheric in nature. For example, summer peaks in westward and equatorward winds occur earlier ( closer to the solstice ) in the Antarctic than in the Arctic. The greater symmetry around the solstice of phenomena such as these indicates that radiative effects may play a greater role in controlling the state of the Antarctic MLT than in the Arctic, where dynamical effects might be more important. Gravity wave observations are consistent with this theory, suggesting more wave drag may occur in the Arctic MLT. The equatorward jet persists for about 2 weeks later in summer in the Arctic than in the Antarctic, as do satellite observations of polar mesospheric clouds ( PMCs ) ( a temperature dependent phenomenon ). It is proposed that the meridional winds can be used as a proxy for gravity wave driving and consequent adiabatic cooling in the MLT. VHF radar observations of polar mesospheric summer echoes ( PMSEs ) at Davis, and the satellite PMC observations, both occur at a similar time to the equatorward jet. Seasonal variations in gravity wave activity are generally a combination of annual ( with winter maxima and summer minima ) and semi - annual ( with maxima near the solstices and minima near the equinoxes ) components. The winter maxima and spring / summer minima both occur about 3 weeks later in the Antarctic than in the Arctic, with the difference in magnitude between these extrema being about 90 % larger in the Antarctic. The available MF radar data include six major sudden stratospheric warmings in the northern hemisphere, and the unprecedented southern event which occurred during 2002 splitting the Antarctic ozone hole apart. Three of the six northern events are relatively weak and could almost be classed as minor warmings, while the larger three are similar in strength and duration to the southern event. Gravity wave activity reduces dramatically at Davis during the southern event, but not at Syowa ( possibly due to differences in critical level filtering ). The influence of major warmings on mesospheric gravity wave strength and polarisation varies significantly between locations, and individual events. Zonal wind reversals associated with the large major warmings are all weaker and occur earlier in the mesosphere than in the stratosphere. Another hemispherically common response is zonal wave - 1 planetary wave signatures in the mesospheric meridional winds ( i.e., a flow over the pole ). The planetary wave signatures have 14 - day periodicity and are westward propagating leading up to the southern event. The zonal winds are weaker than average during the 2002 southern winter, and also during the transition to the summer circulation. This is not seen for the large northern major warmings. There appears to be both hemispheric similarities and differences in polar middle atmosphere dynamics during stratospheric warmings, and also on a climatological scale. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--School of Chemistry and Physics, 2005.

The close-by orbits of the ongoing Juno mission allow measuring with unprecedented accuracy Jupiter's low-degree even gravity moments J(2), J(4), J(6), and J(8). These can be used to better determine Jupiter's internal density profile and constrain its core mass. Yet the largest unknown on these gravity moments comes from the effect of differential rotation, which gives a degree of freedom unaccounted for by internal structure models. Here considering a wide range of possible internal flow structures and dynamical considerations, we provide upper bounds to the effect of dynamics (differential rotation) on the low-degree gravity moments. In light of the recent Juno gravity measurements and their small uncertainties, this allows differentiating between the various models suggested for Jupiter's internal structure.

Submitted by Fabio Sobreira Campos da Costa (fabio.sobreira@ufpe.br) on 2016-04-19T13:52:47Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Dissertação Wemerson Finalizada.pdf: 9160369 bytes, checksum: b31280e4154dafd68b3a566de187171f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-19T13:52:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Dissertação Wemerson Finalizada.pdf: 9160369 bytes, checksum: b31280e4154dafd68b3a566de187171f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-16 / CNPq / A presente pesquisa teve como objetivo entender o comportamento do canal fluvial em área urbana denominado de riacho Umas localizado na cidade de Camaragibe, município que pertence a Região Metropolitana do Recife. O intuito foi observar a dinâmica de processo-resposta entre regime pluviométrico de 2014 e as perturbações ocorridas sobre o canal fluvial, e, todavia, a sensitividade do respectivo canal. Além dos transtornos e riscos trazidos a população ribeirinha residente próxima ao canal, portanto configurando-se como trabalho em escala de detalhe. As dinâmicas atmosféricas foram verificadas a partir da análise rítmica observadas pelos gráficos de pluviosidade diária e imagens de satélite. As respostas sobre o canal fluvial (riacho Umas) foram analisadas em três cenários que correspondem a um período seco (menor pluviosidade) e dois úmidos (casos significativos de maior pluviosidade). Contudo os períodos úmidos divididos em cenário pós-evento de perturbação e cenário durante o evento de perturbação, ou seja, ao longo do processo de precipitação significativa. Para as análises espaciais confeccionaram-se mapas de detalhe de direção de fluxo, curvatura das encostas, declividade, que, todavia, estes foram correlacionados com o mapa de uso e ocupação do solo do município de Camaragibe. Mesmo sendo uma escala espacial de detalhe verificaram-se respostas variáveis (dinâmica não linear) sobre o canal com base em suas características naturais e formas de ocupação e uso do solo, fazendo com que a vulnerabilidade da população que ocupa a área também ocorra modo diferente diante ocorrência de inundações. Também foi realizada a análise das assembleias de relevo fluvial e interfluvial com intuito de compreender a relação de conectividade, principalmente em relação aos fluxos hídricos, entre vertentes e canal fluvial. / This paper has the objective to comprehend the behavior of the fluvial pass named Umas stream, located in the urban area of Camaragibe city, municipality in the Metropolitan Area of Recife. The intention was to observe the process-response dynamics between the pluviometric rate of 2014 and the disturbances occurred at the fluvial pass, and, yet, the sensitivity of the same stream. Considering the disturbance and risks brought to the riverside population, so constituting it as a detail scale paper. The atmospheric dynamics was verified from a rhythmic analysis, observing the daily pluviometric graphs and satellite images. The answers concerning the fluvial pass (Umas stream) were analyzed in three scenarios corresponding to one dry stage and two humid stages. Considering the humid stages divided in: post-disturbance-event scenario and during-disturbance-event scenario, that is, along the significant precipitation process. Even though being a spacial detail scale, variable answers (non-linear dynamics) were found about the stream based on its natural characteristics and soil’s occupation/using methods, making the vulnerability of the occupier population also occur in a different manner due to the occurrence of floods. Also was made an analysis of fluvial and interfluvial relief assembly, pointing to understand the connectivity relation, mainly, to the hydric flow between watersheds and streams. Therefore, flow direction detail, hillside curvature and declination maps were made, and, still, were correlated to the soil’s using and occupation map of Camaragibe’s municipality.

O Estado de São Paulo apresenta índices pluviométricos situados entre 1.200 e 1.600 mm com precipitação concentrada no período situado entre os meses de outubro a março. A passagem de frentes e o processo de frontogênese respondem pelo \"input\" hídrico. Dada a localização que possui (reverso das Cuestas Basálticas) o município de São Carlos apresenta índices pluviométricos ligeiramente superiores ao seu entorno devido a contribuição que recebe das chuvas orográficas. No verão iniciado em 2013 (outubro) e encerrado em 2014 (março), todo Sudeste, assim como as cercanias de São Carlos sofreu com a diminuição das precipitações ocasionadas por mudanças no padrão atmosférico da América do Sul. Atentando para isso, o presente projeto de pesquisa procurou analisar e entender a dinâmica atmosférica desse período chuvoso (Ano Hidrológico) de 2013/2014, descrevendo e caracterizando a dinâmica dos sistemas atmosféricos que nele atuaram e sua variação dentro dos padrões habituais que possuíam, através da metodologia da análise dinâmica, buscando, verificar com base no padrão estabelecido quais foram os principais impactos noticiados pela mídia local (São Carlos) a partir dos índices de precipitação observados. Assim, observou-se que a atuação dos sistemas atmosféricos no período adotado, não ocorreu dentro dos parâmetros habituais da precipitação nas três estações climatológicas que forneceram os dados para a pesquisa. Devendo-se isso a fraca atuação da Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZCAS), diante do constante bloqueio atmosférico que se estabeleceu sobre o Atlântico Sul, aliando-se a atuação excepcional de sistemas meteorológicos organizados na Troposfera como a circulação dos vórtices ciclônicos e do Anticiclone do Atlântico Sul (ASAS) sobre o interior do sudeste da América do Sul. A partir dessa análise, constatou-se que o total pluviométrico do ano hidrológico de 2013/2014 apresentou valor abaixo da média, caracterizando os índices da estação do CRHEA/USP no patamar de um Ano Tendente a Seco, a estação do INMET/UFSCar como um Ano Seco e a estação da EMBRAPA/Sudeste na mesma condição da anterior. Entre as três estações climatológicas apenas a estação do CRHEA/USP apresentou valores próximos da média histórica, por se encontrar inserida na transição morfológica da Depressão Periférica Paulista e o Planalto Ocidental Paulista, favorecendo um acúmulo maior de precipitação devido a ocorrência da Chuva Orográfica. Em face disto, esses índices tiveram reflexo na escassez das chuvas e consequentemente repercutiram nos diversos setores socioambientais e econômicos na região de São Carlos-SP, no entanto, não foram suficientes para criar um quadro agravante quanto a suspensão das atividades econômicas ou no abastecimento de água. / The State of São Paulo presents rainfall rates situated between 1,200 and 1,600 mm with concentrated rainfall in the period between the months from October to March. The passage of fronts and frontogenesis process respond for the \"input\" hydrous. Due to the localition of the township, São Carlos (reverse of Basaltic Slopes) presents rainfall indexes slightly higher than its surroundings because of the contribution received from orogenic rains. In the summer started in 2013 (October) and ended in 2014 (March), all Southeast, as well as the environs of São Carlos suffered with the decreasse of precipitations caused by changes in standard atmospheric of South America. Paying attention to this, this research project sought to analyze and understand the atmospheric dynamics of this rainy season (Hydrological Year) of 2013/2014, describing and characterizing the dynamics of atmospheric systems which acted in that period and its variation within the usual patterns already possessed, through the methodology of dynamic analysis, searching, verify based on established standard which were the main impacts reported by local media (São Carlos) from the observed rainfall rates. Thus, it was noticed that the performance of atmospheric systems in the considered period, did not occur within the usual parameters of rainfall in the three climatological season that provided the data for the research. It should be because of the weak performance of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), against the constant atmospheric blockade that has settled over the South Atlantic, allying the exceptional performance of organized meteorological systems in the troposphere as the movement of cyclonic vortices and Anticyclone of the South Atlantic (ASAS) on the interior of the southeastern South America. From this analysis, it was found that the total pluviometric of the hydrological year 2013/2014 showed a value below average, characterizing the indexes of the CRHEA/ USP station on the level of a Year Aimed Dry, the INMET /UFSCar station as a Dry Year and EMBRAPA/Southeast station as the same previous condition. Among the three climatological stations only CRHEA/USP station presented values near the historical average, being that, finding inserted in the morphologic transition of Depression Peripheral Paulista and Western Plateau Paulista favoring a greater accumulation of precipitation due to the occurrence of Orographic Rain. In view of this, these rates were reflected in the scarcity of rainfall and consequently have affected the various environmental and economic sectors in the region of São Carlos-SP, however, were not enough to create an aggravating situation for the suspension of economic activities or the water supply.