The purpose of this study is to apply the monetary approach to the determination of international reserve flows to major Arab oil-exporting countries. These are Iraq, Kuwait, Libya and Saudi Arabia. / Well-defined and stable demand for and supply of money functions must exist for the monetary approach to have predictive power for reserve flows. This study found that the demand for real balances in the designated countries was a stable function of real income and the rate of inflation. In examining the money supply process, the main determinants of the monetary base and hence the money supply proved to be net foreign assets and government expenditures. / This thesis extends the empirical analysis of international reserve flows by providing empirical tests of a two-area model for the small country case. Our empirical results supported the main propositions of the monetary approach to the balance of payments about the effect of the demand for and the supply of money on reserve flows. The growth in domestic price, domestic income and world money supply exerted a positive impact on the reserve flows, while the growth in world income, interest rates, money multiplier and domestic assets had negative impact. The results also supported the validity of the assumption concerning unified world goods markets.

No description available.

Typescript. / Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1974. / Bibliography: leaves 155-162. / viii, 162 leaves ill

Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk., 2003.

Esta dissertação procura contribuir para literatura empírica sobre crescimento econômico restrito pelo balanço de pagamentos através da investigação de como a mudança estrutural, identificada como alterações na composição setorial das exportações e importações, afeta a intensidade da restrição externa. Para tanto, são realizados dois exercícios empíricos. O primeiro fornece evidências para a validade da Lei de Thirlwall Multissetorial para um conjunto de 90 países no período 1965-1999, baseando-se na análise do erro de previsão e do desvio médio absoluto, assim como na aplicação de um teste de regressão. No segundo, apresentam-se evidências de que o crescimento econômico brasileiro no período 1962-2006 foi compatível tanto com a Lei de Thirlwall quanto com a Lei de Thirlwall Multissetorial. As implicações da Lei de Thirlwall Multissetorial foram utilizadas, então, para explorar a relação entre estrutura produtiva, mudança estrutural e restrição externa por meio da análise da evolução das elasticidades-renda ponderadas das exportações e importações. Dadas a natureza setorial deste exercício empírico e sua possível conexão com a literatura historiográfica sobre o II Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento (1974-1979), os resultados do trabalho foram utilizados para avaliar a contribuição dos setores para a evolução das elasticidades-renda ponderadas das exportações e importações, subsidiando, assim, o debate existente acerca do ajustamento externo promovido entre 1974 e 1984. Os resultados sugerem que a interpretação de Castro (1985), mesmo quando avaliada sob uma métrica diferente daquela utilizada pelo autor, possui fundamento empírico. Porém, faz-se necessário ressaltar a qualificação de Fishlow (1986) de que a melhoria verificada na balança comercial nos anos 1983-1984 decorre em maior medida do comportamento das exportações do que das importações. / This dissertation aims to contribute to the empirical literature on balance-of-payments-constrained growth by investigating how structural change, identified with change in the sectoral composition of exports and/imports, affects the extent of the external constraint. This is done by two empirical exercises. The first one presents evidence in favor of the Multi-Sectoral Thirlwall Laws validity for a sample of 90 countries in the period 1965-1999, by analyzing the mean prediction error and the mean absolute deviation, as well as applying a regression test. In the second one, the evidence show that Brazilian economic growth in the period 1962-2006 was compatible with both Thirlwalls Law and Multi-Sectoral Thirlwalls Law. Multi-Sectoral Thirlwalls Law implications were, then, utilized to explore the relationship between productive structure, structural change and external constraint by analyzing the evolution of weighted income elasticities of exports and imports. Given the sectoral nature of this empirical exercise and its possible connection with the historical literature about the II National Development Plan (1974-1979), the results were used to evaluate the sectors contribution to the evolution of weighted income elasticities of exports and imports during the period. These findings provide additional support to the existing debate about the external adjustment promoted between 1974 and 1984. The results suggest that Castros (1985) interpretation has empirical support, even when evaluated using a different metric than the one used by the author. However, it is necessary to highlight Fishlows (1986) insight that the improvement verified in the trade balance in the years 1983-1984 came out to greater extent from exports behavior rather than from imports behavior.

Orientador: Daniela Magalhães Prates / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-24T19:23:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Sampaio_AdrianoVilela_D.pdf: 2098495 bytes, checksum: 97b2e5dd41a4628246438bde25c4a9e7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: Após a crise financeira global de 2008 muito se falou de reformas no sistema monetário internacional (SMI) como resultado das instabilidades ocorridas e da estagnação que se seguiu. Além disso, o acelerado crescimento experimentado pelos países periféricos no período anterior à crise em relação às economias centrais e a maior resiliência dos primeiros à crise de 2008 fez com que aumentasse o interesse pelo papel que estes poderiam desempenhar em tais mudanças. Esta tese busca analisar as duas questões levantadas acima, quais sejam, mudanças no SMI e o protagonismo dos países periféricos. O objetivo central é a análise das mudanças do SMI desde o fim da década de 1990 em função das estratégias defensivas adotadas pelos países periféricos, bem como as perspectivas de mudanças futuras. A hipótese que se busca verificar é se apesar da heterogeneidade existente entre eles, é possível identificar elementos comuns nas estratégias adotadas desde a década de 1990. Tais elementos indicariam a necessidade de buscar uma integração mais segura ao SMI e a busca por um sistema que os tornem menos suscetíveis a crises financeiras, que ampliem sua autonomia de política econômica e que tornem as condicionalidades das instituições internacionais menos restritivas / Abstract: After the 2008 global financial crises voices were raised to claim for reforms on the international monetary system (IMS) as a result of the instabilities and stagnation that followed. Moreover, the good economic performance of the peripheral countries in the period previous to the crisis in relation to the central countries and the resilience of the former to the 2008 crisis brought the interest of many researchers on the role these countries could play in such changes. This thesis deals with the two mentioned questions: changes on the IMS and the role of peripheral countries. The main objective is the analysis of the changes on the IMS since the end of the decade of 1990 in light of the defensive strategies adopted by peripheral countries, as well as the perspectives of further changes. The hypothesis is that despite the heterogeneity existing among them, it is possible to identify common elements on the adopted strategies since the 1990 decade. Such elements suggest the necessity of pursuing a more cautions integration to the IMS and the search for a system that could make them less vulnerable to financial crises, increases their autonomy of political economy and with international institutions that impose less restrictive policies / Doutorado / Teoria Economica / Doutor em Ciências Econômicas

Orientador: Mariano Francisco Laplane / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-20T09:04:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ribeiro_RafaelSauloMarques_M.pdf: 2090780 bytes, checksum: bb0b009c8327633b357913b68da55ea1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: Este trabalho busca contribuir para a literatura teórica sobre crescimento e desenvolvimento econômico dentro da escola de pensamento keynesiana/kaldoriana por meio de uma estrutura analítica que procura reconciliar ambos os modelos, tanto o de crescimento liderado pelas exportações (Dixon & Thirlwall, 1975) quanto o de crescimento restringido pelo balanço de pagamentos (Thirlwall, 1979) em uma especificação matemática mais geral. Feito isso, partindo do modelo revisitado, faremos algumas considerações acerca do papel da taxa de câmbio como ferramenta de política macroeconômica por meio de simulações como experimento teórico / Abstract: This work attempts to contribute theoretically to the literature on growth and development within the Keynesian-Kaldorian school of thought by providing an analytical framework that seeks to reconciliate both the export-led (Dixon & Thirlwall, 1975) and the balance-of-payments constrained growth (Thirlwall, 1979) models into a further general mathematical specification. Provided the revisited model, we will assess the role played by the exchange rate as a macroeconomic policy tool by using computational simulation as a theoretical experiment / Mestrado / Ciências Economicas / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

This thesis focuses on exchange rates dynamics in Mexico, Turkey and South Korea. We examine the capital flow development in mentioned countries and currency dynamics of the Mexican Peso, Turkish Lira and Korean Won. The main goal of the paper is to evaluate the performance of these currencies in risk-on and risk-off episodes on a sample period from 1997 until 2016. We use analysis and comparison as a methodology for this paper, emphasizing on the relationship and causality between capital flow and exchange rates. We shall reveal that the examined currencies depreciate in risk-off periods and only the Korean Won appreciates in risk-on periods.

The main goals of this dissertation are to analyze balance of payments and foreign exchange rate and to examine mutual relations between these two concepts. The first part describes basic terms related to international finance. These terms are structure of balance of payments, foreign exchange rate and exchange rate regimes. The second part presents four selected foreign economics (Japan, South Africa, Paraguay, Dominican republic) which will be subdue to the analysis. The third and final part is devoted to the regression analysis. Relations between balance of payments and foreign exchange rate are analyzed by the method of ordinary least squares. Necessary data was gained from the IMF server.

This work is engaged with dependence of the Czech economy on the development of the German economy. At first, it describes the theoretical basis for the balance of payments, its elements and factors affecting the balance of payments. The practical part consists of a comparative analysis of Czech and German balance of payments, which is followed by a regression analysis, which purpose is to determine the dependence of the Czech economy to German one. The work also deals with the dependence of individual sectors of these economies to each other and outlines the resultant benefits and risks.