Esta dissertação procura contribuir para literatura empírica sobre crescimento econômico restrito pelo balanço de pagamentos através da investigação de como a mudança estrutural, identificada como alterações na composição setorial das exportações e importações, afeta a intensidade da restrição externa. Para tanto, são realizados dois exercícios empíricos. O primeiro fornece evidências para a validade da Lei de Thirlwall Multissetorial para um conjunto de 90 países no período 1965-1999, baseando-se na análise do erro de previsão e do desvio médio absoluto, assim como na aplicação de um teste de regressão. No segundo, apresentam-se evidências de que o crescimento econômico brasileiro no período 1962-2006 foi compatível tanto com a Lei de Thirlwall quanto com a Lei de Thirlwall Multissetorial. As implicações da Lei de Thirlwall Multissetorial foram utilizadas, então, para explorar a relação entre estrutura produtiva, mudança estrutural e restrição externa por meio da análise da evolução das elasticidades-renda ponderadas das exportações e importações. Dadas a natureza setorial deste exercício empírico e sua possível conexão com a literatura historiográfica sobre o II Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento (1974-1979), os resultados do trabalho foram utilizados para avaliar a contribuição dos setores para a evolução das elasticidades-renda ponderadas das exportações e importações, subsidiando, assim, o debate existente acerca do ajustamento externo promovido entre 1974 e 1984. Os resultados sugerem que a interpretação de Castro (1985), mesmo quando avaliada sob uma métrica diferente daquela utilizada pelo autor, possui fundamento empírico. Porém, faz-se necessário ressaltar a qualificação de Fishlow (1986) de que a melhoria verificada na balança comercial nos anos 1983-1984 decorre em maior medida do comportamento das exportações do que das importações. / This dissertation aims to contribute to the empirical literature on balance-of-payments-constrained growth by investigating how structural change, identified with change in the sectoral composition of exports and/imports, affects the extent of the external constraint. This is done by two empirical exercises. The first one presents evidence in favor of the Multi-Sectoral Thirlwall Laws validity for a sample of 90 countries in the period 1965-1999, by analyzing the mean prediction error and the mean absolute deviation, as well as applying a regression test. In the second one, the evidence show that Brazilian economic growth in the period 1962-2006 was compatible with both Thirlwalls Law and Multi-Sectoral Thirlwalls Law. Multi-Sectoral Thirlwalls Law implications were, then, utilized to explore the relationship between productive structure, structural change and external constraint by analyzing the evolution of weighted income elasticities of exports and imports. Given the sectoral nature of this empirical exercise and its possible connection with the historical literature about the II National Development Plan (1974-1979), the results were used to evaluate the sectors contribution to the evolution of weighted income elasticities of exports and imports during the period. These findings provide additional support to the existing debate about the external adjustment promoted between 1974 and 1984. The results suggest that Castros (1985) interpretation has empirical support, even when evaluated using a different metric than the one used by the author. However, it is necessary to highlight Fishlows (1986) insight that the improvement verified in the trade balance in the years 1983-1984 came out to greater extent from exports behavior rather than from imports behavior.

Orientador: Antonio Carlos Macedo e Silva / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-17T12:09:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Mazzi_CaioTorres_M.pdf: 2544919 bytes, checksum: 35405220fb3c10b12a04d8fcbe0628ba (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: Este trabalho busca integrar dois importantes ramos da literatura pós-keynesiana: a chamada abordagem stock-flow consistent (SFC), cujas origens estão em trabalhos como Godley e Cripps (1983) e Godley (1997), entre outros; e a teoria do crescimento restrito pelo balanço de pagamentos (BPC), inaugurada no modelo seminal de Thirlwall (1979). Após uma breve revisão bibliográfica de ambas as literaturas, são construídas um modelo stock-flow consistent com crescimento e restrição externa. Utiliza-se o modelo para simular diferentes tipos de fluxos internacionais de capitais, que demonstram ter efeitos bastante distintos sobre a economia local / Abstract: The aim of this dissertation is the integration of two important branches of the Post Keynesian literature: the so called stock-flow consistent (SFC) approach, with origins that can be found in Godley and Cripps (1983) and Godley (1997), among others; and the theory of balance of payments constrained growth (BPC), initiated in the seminal model of Thirlwall (1979). After a brief review of both literatures, a stock-flow consistent model with growth and a balance of payments constraint is developed. The model is used to simulate international capital flows of various kinds, which demonstrate to have very different effects on the local economy / Mestrado / Ciências Economicas / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

The first and second chapter sum up the most relevant parts of the generally accepted theory of external economic balance and the theory of exchange rates. The way of Czech Republic and entrance of Slovak republic to EMU is described in theird chapter. Fourth part anlyzes and compares development of the CZK and SKK (EUR). The final chapter compares the development of the shapes of the Czech and Slovak external economic balance.

China is the largest import partner of the United States. At the same time, China is the majority holder of U.S. Treasury securities. Moreover, both of these characteristics of the U.S.-China economic relations have become deeper over the last decade. The Chinese government gives its exporters a competitive advantage over American goods by undervaluing the exchange rate. This requires holding of foreign currency in reserve assets, or investing of foreign currency by buying dollar assets -- especially U.S. Treasury securities. One is supported by another and between both countries there is an increase of interdependence which is not based solely on the market principles. As the international trade and financial flows are affected by government's behavior -- both Chinese and American -- the economic interdependence creates certain risks. These risks can be reduced by fiscal discipline of the U.S. government together with the liberalization of the U.S.-China international trade.

No description available.

This thesis presents estimates of capital flight from Ukraine in the period 1994 to 2017. We use the World Bank Residual method to calculate capital flight as a residual difference between sources and uses of funds in the economy. Our findings show that pre-2014, capital flight amounted to 7.5 billion USD on average. On the contrary, in 2014 our method reports unrecorded capital inflow of 10.7 billion USD, which took place in times of economic recession and military conflict in the east of Ukraine. We analyze the factors that might have caused reverse capital flight, and consider that increase in remittance flows, growth of the black currency market and new niches in the underground economy might have had an effect on unrecorded capital inflows. Finally, we study the components of the World Bank Residual method, and suggest that capital flight might have taken forms that the method doesn't encompass. Therefore, we underline the importance of accounting for gaps in the method by adding trade misinvoicing estimates to capital flight volumes. Keywords Ukraine, Capital Flight, World Bank Residual Method, Balance of Payments, Shadow Economy Range of thesis: 89 886 Characters

This study investigates the domestic and external determinants of net capital flows to Turkey. The results of the Johansen cointegration analyses indicate that capital flows to Turkey increase in response to increases in domestic real interest rate, domestic real income growth, and budget balance / appreciation of domestic currency / and decreases in financial fragility and the US real interest rates. It can be said that, higher domestic real returns and improved country creditworthiness attract more foreign capital flows to Turkey. In addition, the decreases in world interest rates enable Turkey to enjoy higher capital flows. The findings are theory consistent and data-acceptable.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Wollongong, 2009. / Typescript. Includes bibliographical references: leaf 172-197.

Diss. Göteborg : Göteborgs universitet, 2009.

Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk., 2003.