The thesis analyses the external economic balance of the Czech Republic from 2000 till 2011 based on the balance of payments, investment positions and the external debt statistics. in conjunction with the exchange rate development. The main evaluation indicators used in the thesis are the current account balance, the basic balance and external debt. The thesis explains the causes of the development of these indicators and their consequences, considers the trend and then assess whether we can speak about a sustainable form of the external economic balance in the case of the Czech Republic.

In this thesis, the terms of trade changes in Turkey since 1970 are analyzed. In the 1970s, Turkey faced strong terms of trade declines mainly due to two oil price shocks. Rapid diversification of Turkish exports into manufactures was instrumental in avoiding further declines in its terms of trade in the 1980s. However, the slow pace of the diversification into more skill- and technology-intensive manufactures in Turkey combined with the fallacy of composition problem in low-tech, labourintensive manufactures may pose a real danger to the prices of its exports. To the extent that in the long-term, the changes in terms of trade of a country are determined by the level of technology embodied in its exports, the concentration of Turkish exports in low-tech, labour-intensive manufactures may highlight the need for upgrading exports and establishing backward- and forward-linkages between industries to escape from the trap of terms of trade deterioration in the long-term.

Die Arbeit setzt sich das Ziel, den Ursache-Wirkungs-Zusammenhang zwischen den zahlungsbilanzrelevanten Transaktionen aufzudecken. Dieses Vorhaben legt eine zweigeteilte Analyse der Zahlungsbilanz nahe: Es wird zunächst über die Buchungsmechanik der nach ihrem wirtschaftlichen Charakter unterschiedenen internationalen Transaktionen aufgeklärt und anschließend folgt eine fundierte Zahlungsbilanzdiskussion, die Klarheit in die Ursache-Wirkungs-Beziehung bringt. Grenzüberschreitende Transaktionen werden eingeteilt in (reine) Finanztransaktionen und Leistungstransaktionen. Somit bezieht sich die Kausalitätsfrage auf den Zusammenhang zwischen diesen beiden Transaktionsarten. Das Ergebnis verkehrt gängige Vorstellungen über die Wirkungsrichtung ins Gegenteil und lautet: Die Leistungsbilanz bestimmt die Kapitalbilanz.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:33:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 LEZCANO_Johana_2012.pdf: 2309738 bytes, checksum: 11df8e32f791d510c3d6c02634d5fccc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-03-12 / This dissertation aims to analyze the long-term economic growth of member countries of Mercosur, making use of the Keynesian approach to growth under external constraint. In this context, we seek to test, empirically, the validity of Thirlwall's Law, in traditional and extended formulations, to Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, between 1980-2008. Were employed econometric techniques of cointegration, in order to measure the income and price elasticities of demand for imports of these economies, individually. Furthermore, statistical tests were used to compare estimates of product to actual data. Thus, we intend to provide a better understanding of the role of restrictions arising from the Balance of Payments, on the long-term trajectory of growth of nations of the bloc. The results indicate the validity of Thirlwall s Law, over the period analyzed, arguing that the growth of the economies in question was restricted by the balance of the external sector. / A presente dissertação visa analisar o crescimento econômico de longo prazo dos países membros do Mercosul, valendo-se da abordagem keynesiana de crescimento sob restrição externa. Nesse contexto, busca-se testar, empiricamente, a validade da Lei de Thirlwall, nas formulações tradicional e estendidas, para a Argentina, Brasil, Paraguai e Uruguai, entre 1980-2008. Para tal, foram empregadas técnicas econométricas de cointegração, com o intuito de mensurar as elasticidades-renda e preço da demanda por importações dessas economias, individualmente. Além disso, foram utilizados testes estatísticos para comparar estimativas de produto a dados reais. Desta maneira, pretende-se proporcionar um melhor entendimento do papel desempenhado pelas restrições decorrentes do Balanço de Pagamentos, sobre a trajetória de crescimento, de longo prazo, das nações do bloco. Os resultados encontrados apontam para a validade da Lei de Thirlwall, ao longo do período analisado, sustentando que o crescimento das economias em questão foi restrito pelo equilíbrio do setor externo.

Submitted by Rodrigo Caparica (rodrigo.caparica@bancoprosper.com.br) on 2010-05-28T18:55:04Z No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_vf.pdf: 421392 bytes, checksum: f5ace49be1acad54a2d1ca7afc9c2b0d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza(vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2010-05-28T22:10:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_vf.pdf: 421392 bytes, checksum: f5ace49be1acad54a2d1ca7afc9c2b0d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2010-06-01T19:50:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_vf.pdf: 421392 bytes, checksum: f5ace49be1acad54a2d1ca7afc9c2b0d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-04-12 / This paper is a survey of the literature on Sovereign Wealth Funds, highlighting topics such as their origins, objectives, impacts of their investments, transparency and performance of this government instruments in the recent global financial crisis. It also examines the creation of the Brazilian¥s Sovereign Wealth Fund seeking to highlight their pros and cons. We emphasize the need to observe consistent surpluses in the Current Account to justify the creation of these instruments. The mere existence of substantial amounts of international reserves does not serve as a prerogative for its creation. The sustainability and volatility of the sources of foreign exchange should be examined. Still, we emphasize that the Sovereign Wealth Funds are government investment vehicles which relevance in the financial market does not justify the fears that can cause relevant imbalances, despite the criticism and questions about the lack of transparency in disclosing information about their investments. / Este trabalho faz uma resenha da literatura sobre Fundos Soberanos, destacando tópicos como suas origens, objetivos, impactos de seus investimentos, transparência e atuação destes instrumentos governamentais na recente crise financeira global. Analisa ainda a criação do Fundo Soberano Brasileiro buscando ressaltar seus prós e contras. Ressaltamos a necessidade de se observar superávits consistentes em Conta Corrente no Balanço de Pagamentos para justificar a constituição destes instrumentos. A simples existência de elevados volumes de reservas internacionais não serve como prerrogativa para sua criação, devendo-se analisar a sustentabilidade e volatilidade das fontes das divisas. Ainda, destacamos que os Fundos Soberanos são veículos de investimentos governamentais cuja relevância no mercado financeiro não justifica os temores que possam causar desequilíbrios relevantes, apesar das críticas e questionamentos em relação à falta de transparência na divulgação de informações acerca de seus investimentos.

Despite the meaningful impact that credit ratings have on sovereign countries and financial markets, research has not fully explored the determinants of these ratings in many emerging markets (EMs). The aim of this study was to identify and quantify the extent to which different macroeconomic factors impact sovereign ratings. Based on a review of the literature, an analysis of rating agencies' methodology papers, and economic intuition, it was hypothesised that measures of wealth, economic growth, monetary stability, fiscal trajectory, external accounts and governance would predict EM credit ratings. This hypothesis was largely supported by regression models that anticipated actual ratings with predictive power comparable to extant research, but across a much broader set of EM countries. By identifying the key drivers of these ratings, the current research suggests several areas that policymakers can address to improve their own sovereign ratings. / Economics / M. Com (Economics)

The principle of effective demand states that given endogenous expenditure patterns, the level of exogenous expenditure determines the level of employment. If investment represents the sole form of exogenous expenditure, employment adjusts to the level of investment. If exogenous expenditure changes, equilibrium is restored via the equilibrating variable, employment. If employment is linked in a unique way to income, we have what is referred to as the income adjustment process. The income adjustment process is investigated in a closed and a small open economy (SOE) which imports consumption and capital goods. If a SOE imports its capital goods, the causal link between investment and employment is weakened. When capital goods are imported, investment adjusts to the balance of payments and animal spirits are constrained. Certain South African data are analysed within the framework of the income adjustment process. / M.A.(Economics)

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:34:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AndreiLS_DISSERT.pdf: 1080738 bytes, checksum: 0e789761c9337cdeb73ac492e8a471a2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-07-29 / This study aims to investigate the influence of the balance of payments constrained on economic growth in Brazil from 1991 to 2010. With this order, are shown some of the Keynesian balance of payments constrained growth models, inspired by Thirlwall (1979) and Kaldor (1970), which are supported by important points in common, such as adherence to the principle of effective demand. Given that within this theoretical perspective, there is no consensus about the best model to explain the growth rate allowed by the balance of payments constraint, the results are presented by the representative of the empirical literature that addresses the topic, which are necessary for understand the Brazilian case. From the estimation of the income elasticity of imports (0.85) via autoregressive vectors with error correction (VEC), it was calculated five growth rates of income, as predicted by the models of Thirlwall (1979), Thirlwall and Hussain (1982), Moreno-Brid (1998, 2003) and Louren?o et al. (2011) and compared with the actual growth rate. The empirical analysis has shown that: it can not reject the presence of external constraint in the Brazilian economy, there is a strong similarity in growth rates provided by different modeling suggest that growth with external constraint. In addition, when using data in quarterly for the period after 1990 there are no factors that could cause instability in the parameters of the import function (income elasticity and price elasticity of imports) within the period, which indicates that the structural break widely associated with the year 1994 was not confirmed by this study / Este trabalho tem como objetivo verificar a influ?ncia da restri??o externa sobre o crescimento econ?mico brasileiro no per?odo de 1991 a 2010. Com este intuito, s?o apresentados alguns dos principais modelos keynesianos de crescimento restringido pela balan?a de pagamentos, inspirados por Thirlwall (1979) e Kaldor (1970), os quais s?o sustentados por importantes pontos em comum, como a ades?o ao princ?pio da demanda efetiva. Tendo em vista que, no ?mbito desta linha te?rica, n?o h? consenso sobre a modelagem que melhor explique a taxa de crescimento permitida pela restri??o externa, s?o apresentados os resultados encontrados por parte representativa da literatura emp?rica que trata do tema, que se faz necess?rio para um melhor entendimento do caso brasileiro. A partir da estima??o da elasticidade-renda das importa??es (0,85) atrav?s de vetores autorregressivos com corre??o de erros (VEC), foram calculadas cinco taxas de crescimento da renda, conforme previsto pelos modelos de Thirlwall (1979), Thirlwall e Hussain (1982), Moreno-Brid (1998; 2003) e Louren?o et al. (2011) e comparou-as com a taxa de crescimento efetiva. A an?lise emp?rica permitiu verificar que: n?o se pode rejeitar a presen?a de restri??o externa na economia brasileira; h? forte similaridade nas taxas de crescimento previstas pelos diferentes modelagens que prop?em o crescimento com restri??o externa. Al?m disso, ao se utilizar s?ries trimestrais para o per?odo p?s-1990, n?o existem fatores capazes de provocar instabilidade nos par?metros da fun??o de importa??o (elasticidade-renda e elasticidade-pre?o das importa??es) dentro do per?odo, o que indica que a quebra estrutural amplamente associada ao ano de 1994 n?o foi confirmada para o per?odo de an?lise deste estudo

The objective of the thesis is to analyze the external economic stability of the Slovak republic. First part of the thesis explains fundamental theories of the balance of payments, its structure and equalizing mechanisms. The analysis of the external economic stability is based on the development of the balances of payments between the years 2000 and 2008. The analysis of the external debt and the international investment position are also involved to complete the image of the Slovak external economic stability.

This thesis aims to analyse the connection between the Eurozone's balance of payments crisis and the TARGET 2 balances. These balances represent mutual clearing relationship of the individual euro area member states to the European Central Bank inside the TARGET 2 system, which serves as a heart of the Eurozone's payment settlements. In fact, the central banks of the core countries hold significant positive balances while the peripheral central banks accumulated substantial negative positions. The TARGET 2 balances appeared mainly as a consequence of the liquidity outflow from the peripheral countries to the core due to the large imbalances in fundamental factors such as the NCA deficits, net foreign debt, public and private debt or competitiveness. The development of the balances was further facilitated via uneven liquidity provisions from the Eurosystem, as the peripheral countries effectively financed their balance of payments disequilibrium by issuing new liquidity that almost immediately moved to the core. The banking systems of the core started to operate in the liquidity excess status as the monetary base increased in 2011 and 2012. Assets with questionable quality collateralized the increasing refinancing operations in the periphery as the collateral requirements were repeatedly lowered. It resulted in an increase in the credit risk of these operations primarily in the periphery countries. This situation, among many others presented in this thesis, raises further questions about the parameters of the future single monetary policy as well as the continuance of the European monetary union.