Após a implantação do Plano Real, com a mudança ocasionada pela estabilização inflacionária, o Brasil apresentou ampliação na oferta de crédito bancário, como estratégia dos bancos para manterem o nível das suas receitas. Porém, o país ainda necessita ampliar o fornecimento de crédito, pois apresenta uma relação crédito/PIB de 62,2%, inferior à apresentada pela média de todos os países, de 131,7% (BANCO MUNDIAL, 2017). O sistema financeiro brasileiro é predominantemente bancário, e o fornecimento de crédito advém principalmente de instituições bancárias. Os recursos obtidos através do crédito bancário retornam para a sociedade, em forma de consumo e investimentos, contribuindo com a atividade econômica. Além desse cunho social, a concessão de crédito rentabiliza os bancos, impactando no desempenho financeiro dessas instituições. A partir da sanção da lei que permitiu a concessão do crédito consignado, que se caracteriza pelo débito das parcelas do empréstimo diretamente na folha de pagamento dos devedores, os bancos ampliaram a oferta de crédito, uma vez que essa modalidade de empréstimo possibilitou uma redução na inadimplência, diminuindo o risco atrelado ao crédito. Diante do exposto, o objetivo do estudo foi encontrar um modelo que represente o comportamento da evolução do crédito consignado junto a uma instituição financeira, auxiliando na sua estratégia através da previsão dessa variável. O estudo foi realizado através de uma pesquisa quantitativa, com dados secundários fornecidos pela instituição financeira. O tratamento estatístico dos dados foi realizado através da análise de séries temporais, por meio da metodologia proposta por Box & Jenkins, com a utilização do software R Studio. O resultado encontrado foi um modelo ARIMA (0, 2, 1), que representou o comportamento da evolução do crédito consignado junto à instituição financeira, com análise de 96 observações mensais, de janeiro de 2009 a dezembro de 2016. Com o modelo, realizou-se a previsão para seis meses, de janeiro a junho de 2017. A diferença máxima entre o valor previsto e o valor real da variável foi de 1,57%, o que atesta a acuracidade do modelo encontrado. Por conseguinte, como resultado teórico, evidenciou-se que o modelo ARIMA revelou-se adequado para a previsão do crédito consignado concedido pela instituição financeira. Como resultado empírico, o modelo de previsão encontrado pode atuar como ferramenta estratégica para a instituição financeira, uma vez que a sua aplicação pode colaborar com o processo de determinação de estratégias competitivas. / After the implementation of the Real Plan, with the change brought about by inflationary stabilization, Brazil presented an increase in the supply of bank credit, as a strategy for banks to maintain the level of their revenues. However, the country still needs to expand its credit supply, as it has a credit-to-GDP ratio of 62.2%, lower than the average for all countries, of 131.7% (WORLD BANK, 2017). The Brazilian financial system is predominantly banking, and the provision of credit comes mainly from banking institutions. The resources obtained through bank credit return to society, in the form of consumption and investments, contributing to economic activity. In addition to this social aspect, credit lending makes banks profitable, impacting the financial performance of these institutions. Following the enactment of the law that allowed for the payroll deductible loan, which is characterized by the debit of the loan installments directly on the payroll of the debtors, the banks expanded the credit offer, since this type of loan made possible a reduction in defaults, reducing the credit risk. In view of the above, the objective of the study was to find a model that represents the behavior of the evolution of payroll loans with a financial institution, assisting in its strategy by predicting this variable. The study was conducted through a quantitative research, with secondary data provided by the financial institution. The statistical treatment of the data was performed through the analysis of time series, using the methodology proposed by Box & Jenkins, using the software R Studio. The result was an ARIMA model (0, 2, 1), which represented the behavior of the evolution of payroll loans with the financial institution, with analysis of 96 monthly observations, from January 2009 to December 2016. With the model, the forecast for six months, from January to June 2017. The maximum difference between the expected value and the actual value of the variable was 1.57%, which attests to the accuracy of the model found. Therefore, as a theoretical result, it was evidenced that the ARIMA model was adequate for the prediction of payroll loans granted by the financial institution. As an empirical result, the predictive model found can act as a strategic tool for the financial institution, since its application can contribute to the process of determining competitive strategies.

This dissertation studies topics in the areas of corporate finance and economic development. The first chapter, entitled Capital Quality, Productivity, and Financial Constraints: Evidence from India is co-authored with Poorya Kabir. We provide novel evidence that reduced financial constraints increase physical capital quality and, consequently, productivity. We use a project-level investment dataset from India, CapEx, with data on project cost, capacity added to the firm, and investment's product category. We measure physical capital quality using Unit Investment Cost (UIC), defined as the project cost divided by the additional capacity. We find UIC displays significant variation across firms and is substantially associated with productivity and output quality. However, higher-quality physical capital is more expensive, and without sufficient internal funds, firms cannot invest in them. We study a policy, the establishment of Debt Recovery Tribunals (DRT), which has generated staggered variation in access to external debt financing across different Indian states. We find that firms in treated states borrowed and invested more with all the increased investment coming from an increase in UIC and not from increased additional capacity. Furthermore, treated firms increased productivity and output quality, consistent with the hypothesis that a higher UIC induced by greater access to finance increased firm productivity and output quality. The effect of DRTs establishment is stronger in firms that rely more on external financing and industries with more scope for quality differentiation, a result that further supports this hypothesis. Available evidence suggests that other channels do not completely explain the increased productivity and output quality. Overall, this paper finds physical capital quality is an important determinant of productivity and output quality, and a firm's choice of physical capital quality depends on the availability of financing. The second chapter, entitled Credit Supply and Entrepreneurship in Low-Income Regions is co-authored with Mehran Ebrahimian. We show that bank credit affects entrepreneurship, but only in low-income regions. We present a novel methodology to identify credit supply shock from regional demand shock using comprehensive data on small business loans between pairs of banks and counties in the US. While there is no impact in top income quartile counties, we document that a one std credit shock is associated with 1.6 and 1.7 percentage point employment and payroll growth in newborn firms in bottom income quartile counties. We show that this impact is long-lasting; is pronounced only in newborn firms; is not just a redistribution of labor from established to newborn firms; and does not follow with a reduction in labor productivity. We estimate that a credit redistribution of $100 from high- to low-income counties results in at least $6.5 annual labor earnings in aggregate. In the third chapter, entitled Repair and Maintenance, Investment, and Financial Constraints, I study the role of repair and maintenance cost in capital accumulation which has been mostly ignored in finance and investment literature. I show that repair and maintenance cost is large relative to investment, persistent, and could substitute investment in some circumstances. Empirically I find that the repair and maintenance cost relative to the stock of capital is substantially higher for small and financially constrained firms. I claim that cheap upfront repair and maintenance activity makes it attractive to financially constrained firms. A stylized model of financially constrained firms with endogenous choice of maintenance vs. investment rationalizes the empirical findings. Overall, this paper introduces firm-level maintenance cost data to the literature, investigates its relation to investment, and documents several empirical properties of repair and maintenance costs.

The Federal Reserve has proposed a change in its method of administering the discount window. This paper looks at the effects of this proposal on monetary control and on the money markets, assuming that banks base their behavior on profit maximization over the long run. First, the reserve supply process is postulated. The conditions under which borrowing from the Federal Reserve will improve or reduce monetary control are stated. Second, the primary reserve adjustment process is formulated to show how primary reserve adjustment can affect rates in the money market. Finally arguments are set forth to show how borrowed reserves would behave if commercial banks are attempting to maximize long run profits and under the discount window administration proposed by the Federal Reserve Committee. The conclusion is that borrowed reserves will behave to reduce money market instability but at the same time they will behave to reduce the Federal Reserve control over the stock of Reserves available to the banking system. Borrowing from the Federal Reserve Bank can be expected to behave in a way of offset Federal Reserve open market operations.

Financial intermediaries are paramount for modern society. During the last decade, however, our reliance on these institutions have been meticulously debated, especially in the aftermath of the financial crisis. This thesis contributes to this debate with a novel perspective on loan supply changes in light of the recent events in the Swedish real estate market. More specifically, it investigates what influence housing prices have on the supply of commercial and industrial loans. This is done by estimating dynamic panel data models using a quarterly panel containing balance sheet data for 68 Swedish monetary financial institutions, during the post-financial crisis period of 2009-2017. The results indicate that housing prices do not have a significant effect on commercial and industrial loan supply. However, these loans are to a considerable degree dependent on the institutes’ earlier levels of commercial and industrial loans.

The problem of credit rationing/borrowing constraint has recently received considerable attention. Individuals who are denied any credit by a financial institution, or who find it difficult to borrow against future incomes, are said to be credit rationed or borrowing constrained in the credit markets. This dissertation tries to identify the circumstances under which individuals may be rationed (or not), and analyses the actions undertaken to overcome future constraints. Chapter 2 analyses the problem of credit rationing as it arises in equilibrium, when borrowers differ with respect to their demands for loans. It is shown that if the principal can costlessly observe the agent’s type, then (i) the agents who meet the collateral requirements are not rationed in the sense of Stiglitz-Weiss (1981), (ii) the agents who do not meet the collateral requirements are rationed in the sense of Jaffee-Russell (1976). We further show that if the principal cannot distinguish between different agents, then the previous rationing results still hold in the second best contract which is pooling : agents of different types pick the same contract. Chapter 3 analyses the problem of credit rationing as it emerges in a dynamic setting, when a renegotiation of the original contract may be undertaken. It is conjectured that (i) the principal uses the information revealed about an agent’s type at the time of first repayment, to design future contracts, (ii) the agents who show consistently honest behavior are never rationed, (iii) the agents who showed dishonest behavior impose a negative externality on the agents who were honest; they are rationed in later periods. Finally, in chapter 3, we analyse the role of an exogenously imposed borrowing constraint prompting the individuals to change their life-cycle decisions. This chapter provides an explicit link between human and non-human wealth by making income endogenous through investment in human capital. The chapter also discusses the econometric aspects of the problem: the possible empirical work that can be undertaken in the future using a micro data set. / Ph. D.

No description available.

by Lee Yuen-wah Teresa and Tsui Wai-lim. / Bibliography: leaves 39-40 / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1984

by Cheng To-shun, Yan Kai-cheung. / Summary in Chinese. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1984. / Bibliography: leaves 97-98.

by Fu Yuen Yeh. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves [40-41]). / LIST OF TABLES --- p.iv / ABSTRACT --- p.v / ACKNOWLEDGEMENT --- p.vi / CHAPTERS Page / Chapter 1. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter 2. --- BACKGROUND --- p.2 / Grouping of Loans --- p.3 / Risk Management in Commercial Banks --- p.4 / credit risk / liquidity risk / interest rate risk / fraud risk / Risk Management in International Banking --- p.8 / Loan Diversification --- p.10 / industry diversification / geographic diversification / Loan Policies --- p.15 / Chapter 3. --- METHODOLOGY --- p.17 / Chapter 4. --- FINDINGS AND DISCUSSIONS --- p.19 / Respondent Profile --- p.19 / Existence of formal loan diversification policies --- p.22 / Credit concentration policy --- p.23 / Diversification strategies --- p.24 / Concentration control --- p.27 / Currency risk --- p.28 / Currency composition of loan portfolio --- p.29 / Respondents' Opinion --- p.29 / Chapter 5. --- CONCLUDING DISCUSSIONS --- p.31 / APPENDICES / Chapter A.1 --- Balance Sheet: All authorised institutions / Chapter A.2 --- Interbank lending: by country of origin / Chapter A.3 --- Loans and advances analysed by currency denominations / Chapter A.4 --- Loans for use inside and outside Hong Kong / Chapter A.5 --- Questionnaire sample / Chapter A.6 --- Summary of questionnaire responses / BIBLIOGRAPHY

Credit risk mitigation that can be applied by commercial banks in assessing the lending decision /credit risk when advances and equity investments are considered for BEE classified companies. / A research report presented to the Graduate School of Business Leadership, University of South Africa / The previous political dispensation limited black people’s participation in the South African economy. Poor credit records, lack of training, resulting in skills and capacity gaps further limited entry into the lending market. These aspects are considered the main limitations in obtaining finance for the Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises (SMMEs). This research report focuses on how credit risk can be mitigated by commercial banks in lending to Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) companies in the medium to large market. Exploratory research was conducted using various methods to achieve methodological triangulation. These methods consisted of a literature review, interviewing experts in the field and case studies. A qualitative research approach was followed. It was found that the lack of own contribution and security were still prevalent in the medium to large market, but the quality of management (little training and skills) was deemed not to be a limitation as suitable credit risk mitigants were identified. No credit risk mitigants were identified to mitigate poor credit records. It is postulated that by adopting and applying the identified credit risk mitigants, commercial banks can increase their success rate in lending to BEE companies. It will further assist in the transformation of black people and compliance with the Financial Services Charter. It is recommended that a similar study be conducted in the agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing industry. The reasons why BEE companies applications are declined could also be investigated. Further studies could also explore other external factors such as economical, legal and social that could have an influence on the funding of BEE companies.