Auditors must assess their clients' ability to function as a going concern for at least the year following the financial statement date. The audit profession has been severely criticized for failure to 'blow the whistle' in numerous highly visible bankruptcies that occurred shortly after unmodified audit opinions were issued. Financial distress indicators examined in this study are one mechanism for making such assessments. This study measures and compares the predictive accuracy of an easily implemented two-variable bankruptcy model originally developed using recursive partitioning on an equally proportioned data set of 202 firms. In this study, we test the predictive accuracy of this model, as well as previously developed logit and neural network models, using a realistically proportioned set of 14,212 firms' financial data covering the period 1981-1990. The previously developed recursive partitioning model had an overall accuracy for all firms ranging from 95 to 97% which outperformed both the logit model at 93 to 94% and the neural network model at 86 to 91%. The recursive partitioning model predicted the bankrupt firms with 33-58% accuracy. A sensitivity analysis of recursive partitioning cutting points indicated that a newly specified model could achieve an all firm and a bankrupt firm predictive accuracy of approximately 85%. Auditors will be interested in the Type I and Type II error tradeoffs revealed in a detailed sensitivity table for this easily implemented model.

The high social costs associated with bankruptcy have spurred searches for better theoretical understanding and prediction capability. In this paper, we investigate a hybrid approach to bankruptcy prediction, using a genetic programming algorithm to construct a bankruptcy prediction model with variables from a rough sets model derived in prior research. Both studies used data from 291 US public companies for the period 1991 to 1997. The second stage genetic programming model developed in this research consists of a decision model that is 80% accurate on a validation sample as compared to the original rough sets model which was 67% accurate. Additionally, the genetic programming model reveals relationships between variables that are not apparent in either the rough sets model or prior research. These findings indicate that genetic programming coupled with rough sets theory can be an efficient and effective hybrid modeling approach both for developing a robust bankruptcy prediction model and for offering additional theoretical insights.

The following research explores the development of financial culture in the early American republic through the examination of New York's use of debtors' prisons. Beginning with the construction of the historical context surrounding the passage and abolition of the National Bankrupt Act of 1800, the project takes use of a series of archival sources that exemplify the character of credit in early American economic practices. The emergence of republican financial culture was often at odds with federal judicial and legislative action, the result of which was the creation of state policy and third party organizations dedicated to solving the plight of a growing debtor population. As the narrative of debt transitioned from understanding the debtor as a villain towards a victim, traditional criminal punishments no longer represented cultural values. One such institution scrutinized and debated was the debtors' Gaol.

Thesis advisor: Julia Chuang / In China’s overheating housing market, citizen grievances over “unfinished housing” (lanweilou) have become widespread. In lanweilou cases, developers presell housing units in high-rise apartments, initiate construction, then abscond without completing construction and renovation of these housing units. This paper documents the rise of a new social media-driven mode of mobilization now popular among homeowners of lanweilou housing. Based on ethnography and interviews with aggrieved homeowners in a southwestern Chinese city, this thesis argues that social media enables homeowners to report their grievances to a wider audience while providing diverse information about their cases for them to refine mobilizational targets. By combining authentic storytelling with self-censorship, homeowners can transform public attention in media channels into state intervention. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2021. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Departmental Honors. / Discipline: Sociology.

The doctoral dissertation studies applications of the methods of qualitative modelling to solve problems associated with external credit ratings. Qualitative modelling is a tool which can solve tasks under shortage of relevant information items. Correlation analysis is used if relevant data sets are available and complement the qualitative analysis. External credit rating assessments are closely related to possibilities of insolvency of business entities and the subsequent bankruptcies. Mutual interlinks of bankruptcy probabilities and qualitative models are presented in details. Two specific models are given. Due to the adopted legislative measures were also tested match of the ratings from a variety of external credit rating agencies using cluster and correlation analysis. The above mentioned results are used to develop a qualitative model of external credit ratings, which is the main outcome of this dissertation. The results of model scenarios of assessment of the influence of regulation external credit rating on the business entity, investors, as well as regulatory authorities are presented in details.

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Denna rapport tar sikte på de två konkursprojekt som till viss del finansierats av småsparare viacrowdfundingplattformen Tessin. Syftet är att diskutera om och i så fall hur konkursprojekten skiljersig från lyckade bostadsprojekt som finansierats via Tessin och om det finns anledning att tycka att deinte borde ha finansierats överhuvudtaget. Avgränsningar görs till bostadsprojekt finansierade viaTessin i Sverige sedan tjänsten grundandes 2014. Rapporten baseras på en kvantitativ metodansats där53 stycken lyckade projekt inom bostadsutveckling sammanställts till ett typprojekt som senarejämförs rent numeriskt mot de två konkursprojekten. Jämförelser görs både på projekt- ochverksamhetsnivå med avsikten att identifiera eventuella avvikelser. Avvikelsernas betydelseutvärderas och kopplas till den utvalda teorin, däribland The Pecking order Theory och Market forLemons. Målet är att besvara frågeställningen: Finns det för konkursprojekten betydande avvikelserfrån Tessins typprojekt av sådan karaktär att man bort inse ett misslyckande redan före finansiering? Idet ena konkursprojektet är avvikelserna så pass betydande att man bort inse ett misslyckande redanföre finansiering och således kunnat undvika att nu 20 mkr från småsparare står på spel i ett långdragetkonkursförfarande. I det andra projektet är bristerna inte lika uppenbara. / This bachelor thesis focuses on the two housing projects partially financed via Tessin’s crowdfundingplatform that faced insolvency. The purpose is to discuss whether or not the two bankruptcy projectsdiffer from the successfully completed projects and if so, is there reason to question the fact that theywere financed at all. The report is limited to crowdlending and geographically to Sweden and theSwedish crowdfunding platform Tessin. The report takes a quantitative approach where a typical projecthas been derived from 53 successful real estate development projects. This typical projects is laternumerically compared with the two unsuccessful ones. Project owner factors as well as project specificfactors for the two unsuccessful projects have been compared to its peers with the intention to identifyany significant deviations. The deviation is then evaluated and discussed in line with the theoreticalframework. Among theories are The Pecking order Theory and Market for Lemons. The ultimate goalis to answer the question: With regards to the data available before the financing of these unsuccessfulprojects. Was there, at the time for financing, deviation from the typical project of such character oneshould have realized the two projects were doomed to fail? In one of the unsuccessful projects theconclusion is that the deviations were of such character, and in the other it is not as clear.

Master's thesis is devoted to the analysis of revocation of licenses from commercial banks. The purpose of writing a master's thesis is to analyze the state of the banking sector from the perspective of reducing the number of valid licenses, suggest possible approaches to determining whether there is evidence of a possible revocation of a license from a credit institution and provide a forward-looking estimate of the further development of the banking sector. During the work, an analysis was made of the state of the banking sector of the country when revoking the license; identified and identified signs that can warn banks from the ban on the conduct of banking operations on the basis of the seven banks in the country, which allowed to assess the impact of revocation of a license for the development of the banking system of the Russian Federation. / Магистерская диссертация посвящена вопросам анализа отзыва лицензий у коммерческих банков. Цель написания магистерской диссертации – на основе анализа состояния банковского сектора с позиции сокращения количества действующих лицензий, предложить возможные подходы к определению наличия признаков возможного отзыва лицензии у кредитной организации и дать прогнозную оценку по дальнейшему развитию банковского сектора. В ходе работы был проведен анализ состояния банковского сектора страны при отзыве лицензии; выявлены и определены признаки, способные предостеречь банки от запрета на осуществление банковских операций на основе рассмотренных 7 банков страны.